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What the Fixtures and Form Say – Gameweek 34 Captaincy

This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.

Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.

Before I take a look at Gameweek 34’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.

REFINING THE ODDS

For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.

I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of 2 players are the same. The Home and Away PPG will now take into account the last 4 Home or Away fixtures that the player has featured in.

The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.

SUCCESS

 

What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll.

A review of this method’s progress can be found via this link, which looks at whether this method or the FFS Captain polls are proving to be more successful. The next review will be at the end of the season.

On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:

  • Explosive = 10+ points
  • Success = 7-9 points
  • Average = 4-6 points
  • Fail = no attacking returns

Gameweek 33’s top pick Harry Kane delivered an ’explosive’ return of 12 points against Bournemouth. The Englishman also scored the most points out of the options in the Top 6 of the captaincy poll. Captain poll leader Romelu Lukaku scored just six points. The clean sheet potential table’s top pick Tottenham duly delivered a clean sheet alongside Watford.

Now let’s take a look at Gameweek 34’s results…..

FORM

RankPlayerTotal PPGGoalsAssistsH-PPGA-PPG
1.Kane11.56211.56
2.Zaha6.5134.755.5
3.Benteke5.753134.5
4.Lukaku5.753011.753
5.Ibrahimovic4.5212.757
6.Negredo4203.252.5

Fixtures

RankPlayerFixtureGoals ConcededBig Chances ConcededGoal attempts in the box concededTotal
1.NegredoBou (A) Sun (H)171683116
2.IbrahimovicBur (A) Man City (A)1196585
3.KaneCrystal Palace (A)694863
4.LukakuWest Ham (A)754355
5.5BentekeLiv (A) Tot (H)5113652
5.5ZahaLiv (A) Tot (H)5113652

Results

 

RankPlayerFormFixtureTotal
1.Kane134
2.5Ibrahimovic527
2.5Negredo617
4.Zaha25.57.5
5.Lukaku448
6.Benteke35.58.5

 

Taking form and double Gameweek fixtures into account, Harry Kane is still the most likely to deliver attacking returns despite only playing once, according to this method.

The Tottenham forward tops the form table and has scored six goals and two assists in his last four appearances and offers a total PPG of 11.5.

It’s worth mentioning that these last four appearances have all come at home. His away PPG on the other hand, from his last four away road trips, stands at six. The Englishman finishes third in the fixture table this week and faces a Crystal Palace side that has conceded six goals, nine big chances and 48 goal attempts in the box in the same timeframe.

Could Kane outscore the DGW options? This article suggests that may well be the case.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic finishes second in the results table mainly thanks to his second fixture, albeit away against Manchester City. The big Swede also faces Burnley away and these combined fixtures offer up 11 goals conceded, 9 big chances and 65 goal attempts in the box conceded in the last four Gameweeks.

The Manchester United forward finishes 5th in the form table – he has a total PPG of only 4.5 with two goals and an assist in the same time frame.

It is worth pointing out that his away PPG of 7 is the highest of any of the Top 6 in the Captaincy Poll which is encouraging considering the fixtures on offer. FPL managers await tonight’s Europa League line-up cautiously when considering Zlatan for the armband this weekend.

Alvaro Negredo offers this week’s classic form vs. fixture dilemma.

The Spaniard sits bottom of the form table, having registered two goals and now assists in his last four, giving him a total PPG of just four points.

He does, however, go into this Gameweek with potentially two favourable fixtures in the shape of Bournemouth and Sunderland. These 2 fixtures combined places the Middlesbrough forward first in the fixture table. Together they have conceded 17 goals, 16 big chances and 83 goal attempts in the box in the same time frame. Those FPL managers with a wildcard left in their locker, could well be persuaded to take a punt bringing the Boro talisman in this week.

Clean Sheet Potential Table

RankTeam
1.Middlesbrough (SUN)
2.Chelsea
3.Arsenal
4.Hull
5.Tottenham

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43 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Jonty
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    6 days, 23 hours ago

    Thanks for submitting. Really interesting to see him there considering patchy away form.

    Glad I have him - but I can't resist the allure of a DGWK captain.

    1. Gunner81
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 23 hours ago

      Month I'm 35 behind in a serious ml , I know my rival has ibra and no Kane I have both he will 100% cap ibra should I play safe with ibra or pick Kane ? What would you do ? Thanks

      1. Gunner81
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        6 days, 23 hours ago

        Jonty not Month lol

        1. Jonty
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          6 days, 23 hours ago

          I've been called worse on here 😉

      2. Jonty
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        6 days, 23 hours ago

        Ibra potentially has a greater upside with points. Its a tough one.

        I'd consider risks elsewhere. If you captain Ibra you cover that. Kane immediatley gives you a lift....then looks to a couple of other DGW diffs...you need to take risks - but with a small gap to make up you should focus those on the cheap seats. Reduces the risks.

        So Zaha/Townsend/ManU def and Kane with his Ibra covered could bridge that gap.

        Get the Ibra call wrong and his 35 lead could end up being a 65 pts one.

    2. Concentration
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 2 hours ago

      Many people have already been stung by the Ibra injury news. What are the chances of a double blow of a significant player involved in the FA Cup also getting injured and then missing this Premier League gameweek?

      Something to consider if captaining Kane, Alli, Hazard or Sanchez.

      Think Lukaku may be the safest skipper this week, although seriously tempted by a Palace attacker for some bizarre reason.

  2. pakornk
      6 days, 23 hours ago

      Who else is captaining Negredo? Show of hands please!

      1. Chenku Zipped up
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        6 days, 23 hours ago

        no chance.. ibra or benteke for me.

      2. Lego-Lars
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        6 days, 23 hours ago

        o/
        For me there is no real standout pick this gw so hope this differential scores big! seems the most fun pick for me who loves good fixtures 🙂

      3. NP97
          6 days, 22 hours ago

          I avoided Negredo because of next week. Spurs playing Arsenal and Middlesborough against City meant having Benteke gave me an extra playable option against Burnley who are terrible away. Negredo could fire against his old club though, but Kompany gives City's defence real solidarity.

        • DJ1000
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          6 days, 22 hours ago

          Me! Just love the fixtures and Boro now more attacking.

      4. Rolls-Royce
          6 days, 23 hours ago

          Mark would be pleased to see Kane on top.

        • 7 - Allejo
            6 days, 22 hours ago

            If Man U gets knocked out then I would get Ibra all the way but if not I would consider Kane, Zaha or Lukaku

            1. 7 - Allejo
                6 days, 22 hours ago

                knocked out by Anderletch today in Europa league that is

            2. Sjaugen
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              6 days, 22 hours ago

              (K)ane Lukaku Benteke let's go!

            3. the 80 million dab!
                6 days, 22 hours ago

                Hi Guys,

                DDG
                Gibson fabio(prob out) valencia
                coutino zaha townsend sanchez
                benteke kane negredo

                bench - sane brunt davies heaton

                im chasing top by 70 points so on the attack, took a minus 8 (fully aware of no ibra)

                my thinking is gw 37 is best for bb, so with time running out to tc and with me chasing im leaning towards using a dgw player.

                so my question is who to tc?

                A) benteke this week
                B) Negredo this week
                c) sanchez week 36 (home to utd, away to s'ton
                D) play it safe and pick a sgw player in 35/36 or 38

                1. Darklord_bg
                    6 days, 22 hours ago

                    A is very risky, though you are chasing, so you might as well go with it.

                    B surely not.

                    C I don't know about. Sanchez will probably deliver something but probably not a huge deal. I could see him getting a single goal or assist for those two weeks.

                    D you could try with Kane this week or vs West Ham, or even Arsenal - they have been really leaky in defense lately.

                    I don't feel confident with any of those options, though. The best options for TC are in GW37: Sanchez, Hazard or Kane.

                2. Darklord_bg
                    6 days, 22 hours ago

                    So Fabio is not really confirmed fine after all 🙁

                  • the 80 million dab!
                      6 days, 22 hours ago

                      just done a news now search, manager quotes on fabio are.

                      It's good news on Fabio, it's not as bad as we first thought," said Agnew in his press conference ahead of Saturday's game.

                      "We will have a look in the morning to see if he can make the weekend."

                      so yh thats some goodish news.

                      1. Darklord_bg
                          6 days, 22 hours ago

                          This "we'll see in the morning" is the worst kind of news.
                          I would prefer him to say he is 100% unavailable. Then I can just exchange him for Gibson for a hit and be done with it.

                          Now if I do that and he plays I will have lost 4pts, and if he doesn't and I keep him I will have lost Gibson's points.

                          This game is like lottery, really 🙁

                      2. Mark-O's Wavey Hair
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        6 days, 21 hours ago

                        CS table not so accurate as of lately

                        Dont think Chelsea will have a cleanie against Saints

                      3. maclrc
                          6 days, 21 hours ago

                          Heaton
                          Alonso Davies Holgate
                          Coutinho Zaha King Sanchez Eriksen
                          (c)Ibra Lukaku

                          Valdes Llorente Gibson Chambers

                          0 FT 0.1 ITB

                          Brought in Valdes with my FT and was planning on using BB this week. I'm defending a 25 point lead in my mini league (closest rival has spent at least 8 pts so far this week).

                          Valdes injury (hopefully back for 2nd DGW game) has slightly thrown a spanner in the works. Do I:

                          A: Stick with current plan (Ibra captain and BB)
                          B: Valdes, Llorente -> Henessey, Negredo (-8 pts)
                          C: Alonso, Lukaku -> van Aanholt, Kane (-8 pts)
                          D: Something else

                          1. maniaq_
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            6 days, 5 hours ago

                            Stick. BB looks good.

                          2. maniaq_
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            6 days, 4 hours ago

                            Of course after replacing Ibra. Negredo / Benteke the best options.

                        • Golden Soccer Ducks
                            6 days, 20 hours ago

                            Should I take a -4 hit and transfer Tadic for Townsend (or other?) (£7.7m available) and use my All-Out-Attack for GW34? Here's my team:

                            Hennessey
                            Gibson, Valencia, Alonso
                            Ericksen, Alli, King, Zaha
                            Kane, Ibra, Afobe
                            (Pickford, Bellerin, Tadic, Pennington)

                          • F Society
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            6 days, 20 hours ago

                            Glad to see Kane at the top, gives a bit of confidence to those captaining him.

                            Already used my TC on Aguero in GW27, he scored 27, anyone who captained Kane at home to Everton scored 26, more of the same this week would be good.

                          • Oggle22
                              6 days, 19 hours ago

                              G2G?

                              Valdes
                              Chambers Lovren Davies
                              Alli Sanch Walcott Sane
                              Kun Kane Origi

                              Jakupovic De Roon Yoshida Huth

                              Use OOA or save for next game week?

                              Walcott to ?
                              Walcott and Kun to ? And Ibra?

                            • FC Lackless
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              6 days, 18 hours ago

                              Cheers YMA

                            • davaric
                                6 days, 14 hours ago

                                Zlatan injured. Doesn't look good...

                                1. Brigadier Gerard
                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                  6 days, 14 hours ago

                                  Watching on +1?

                              • RedLightning - See link for…
                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                • Has Moderation Rights
                                6 days, 14 hours ago

                                Surely the Total PPGs ought to be doubled for DGW players?
                                The Form Table would then be:
                                1. Zaha 13.0
                                2. Benteke 11.5 (A-PPG + H-PPG = 7.5)
                                3. Kane 11.5 (A-PPG = 6)
                                4. Ibrahimovic 9.0
                                5. Negredo 8.0
                                6. Lukaku 5.75

                                And the Results Table would then be:
                                =1. Kane 3 + 3 = 6
                                =1. Ibrahimovic 4 + 2 = 6
                                =1. Negredo 5 + 1 = 6
                                4. Zaha 1 + 5.5 = 6.5
                                5. Benteke 2 + 5.5 = 7.5
                                6. Lukaku 6 + 4 = 10

                                But everything changes after Zlatan's injury!

                                1. Your Mum's Athletic
                                    5 days, 19 hours ago

                                    You're right but luckily it doesn't change the outcome too much

                                2. HVT
                                    5 days, 22 hours ago

                                    Thanks as always YMA!
                                    Seems I nailed it last week 🙂
                                    Like Jonty said I can't resist the allure of the DGW, -8 5 players and Tekkers (c) he has 180 mins (hopefully) to do some damage!
                                    😎

                                    1. Your Mum's Athletic
                                        5 days, 19 hours ago

                                        No worries. I think I'm gonna punt on benteke too as an ibra replacement and put the armband on him as well. Think he's a better replacement than rash ford this week and a good gw35 fixture too. Good luck

                                        1. HVT
                                            3 days, 19 hours ago

                                            Nailed it again! Hope youbacked CB YMA!!!
                                            😎

                                          • Fred51
                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                            3 days, 18 hours ago

                                            Also captained Benteke.

                                            I love the way you talked him way down YMA. 😉

                                      • steadyeddy127
                                          5 days, 22 hours ago

                                          negredo or rashford for captain?

                                          1. Your Mum's Athletic
                                              5 days, 19 hours ago

                                              Out of the 2, negredo

                                          2. BRFCTugay
                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                            5 days, 20 hours ago

                                            So with Ibra out, thoughts on a triple c of Rashford?
                                            I'll have to take -4 to get him too. But I really want to use triple c this week as I can't see a suitable week otherwise due to my bb plan. The only other options are negredo this week or Sanchez in their first double....

                                            1. Your Mum's Athletic
                                                5 days, 19 hours ago

                                                I wouldn't TC rashford

                                            2. Kemosabe1
                                                5 days, 19 hours ago

                                                Any chance u have the stats or kniw where rashford now fits into all of this?

                                                I'm sure u must have checked?

                                              • Depay me demoney
                                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                5 days, 17 hours ago

                                                A) Aguero --> Negredo/Benteke
                                                B) Lanzini --> Towsend/Zaha
                                                C) McAuley --> PvA/Bailly (Bench Lanzini)

                                                All wit a hit , just Valencia for DGW coverage

                                              • RealMenWearPink
                                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                5 days, 17 hours ago

                                                Who to start? Gotta pick 2 of these 3.

                                                Alli
                                                Coutinho
                                                Siggy