This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.
Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.
Before I take a look at Gameweek 34’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.
REFINING THE ODDS
For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of 2 players are the same. The Home and Away PPG will now take into account the last 4 Home or Away fixtures that the player has featured in.
The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.
What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll.
A review of this method’s progress can be found via this link, which looks at whether this method or the FFS Captain polls are proving to be more successful. The next review will be at the end of the season.
On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:
- Explosive = 10+ points
- Success = 7-9 points
- Average = 4-6 points
- Fail = no attacking returns
Gameweek 33’s top pick Harry Kane delivered an ’explosive’ return of 12 points against Bournemouth. The Englishman also scored the most points out of the options in the Top 6 of the captaincy poll. Captain poll leader Romelu Lukaku scored just six points. The clean sheet potential table’s top pick Tottenham duly delivered a clean sheet alongside Watford.
Now let’s take a look at Gameweek 34’s results…..
|Rank||Player||Fixture||Goals Conceded||Big Chances Conceded||Goal attempts in the box conceded||Total|
|1.||Negredo||Bou (A) Sun (H)||17||16||83||116|
|2.||Ibrahimovic||Bur (A) Man City (A)||11||9||65||85|
|3.||Kane||Crystal Palace (A)||6||9||48||63|
|4.||Lukaku||West Ham (A)||7||5||43||55|
|5.5||Benteke||Liv (A) Tot (H)||5||11||36||52|
|5.5||Zaha||Liv (A) Tot (H)||5||11||36||52|
Taking form and double Gameweek fixtures into account, Harry Kane is still the most likely to deliver attacking returns despite only playing once, according to this method.
The Tottenham forward tops the form table and has scored six goals and two assists in his last four appearances and offers a total PPG of 11.5.
It’s worth mentioning that these last four appearances have all come at home. His away PPG on the other hand, from his last four away road trips, stands at six. The Englishman finishes third in the fixture table this week and faces a Crystal Palace side that has conceded six goals, nine big chances and 48 goal attempts in the box in the same timeframe.
Could Kane outscore the DGW options? This article suggests that may well be the case.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic finishes second in the results table mainly thanks to his second fixture, albeit away against Manchester City. The big Swede also faces Burnley away and these combined fixtures offer up 11 goals conceded, 9 big chances and 65 goal attempts in the box conceded in the last four Gameweeks.
The Manchester United forward finishes 5th in the form table – he has a total PPG of only 4.5 with two goals and an assist in the same time frame.
It is worth pointing out that his away PPG of 7 is the highest of any of the Top 6 in the Captaincy Poll which is encouraging considering the fixtures on offer. FPL managers await tonight’s Europa League line-up cautiously when considering Zlatan for the armband this weekend.
Alvaro Negredo offers this week’s classic form vs. fixture dilemma.
The Spaniard sits bottom of the form table, having registered two goals and now assists in his last four, giving him a total PPG of just four points.
He does, however, go into this Gameweek with potentially two favourable fixtures in the shape of Bournemouth and Sunderland. These 2 fixtures combined places the Middlesbrough forward first in the fixture table. Together they have conceded 17 goals, 16 big chances and 83 goal attempts in the box in the same time frame. Those FPL managers with a wildcard left in their locker, could well be persuaded to take a punt bringing the Boro talisman in this week.
Clean Sheet Potential Table