Scout Notes

The Stock Check – Gameweek 36 – Saturday

Two Belgians shine, four Foxes catch the eye and, finally, even a Sunderland man enjoys himself. But Fantasy Premier League’s most popular player blanks on the road once again as managers continue to bail out.

Here’s Saturday’s Stock Check.

On the Rise

Kevin De Bruyne
Remember him? The Belgian was a Fantasy staple last season, delivering seven goals and ten assists from midfield.

This campaign has been a rather more stealthy affair, but a stellar performance in the 5-0 rout of Crystal Palace earned him 17 points and an early place in the top five acquisitions ahead of Manchester City’s double Gameweek 37.

De Bruyne has featured in all but two league matches under Pep Guardiola – quite an achievement considering the Spaniard’s liking for tinkering – and has now edged ahead of Spurs’ Christian Eriksen, for FPL assists by 18 to 17.

Throw in five goals and 172 total points which has him sixth among midfielders, and it comes as a surprise that he’s owned by just 7.1% of managers – the injured Sadio Mane is the only other midfielder in the top ten without double-figure ownership.

De Bruyne’s 10.4 price tag and his relatively modest goal output – his strike against Palace was his first since Gameweek 23 – have counted against him, but he now looks due a late surge in popularity as an explosive differential with his home double against Leicester City and West Brom to come.

Vincent Kompany
Another Fantasy favourite of yesteryear is reminding us of his good old days.

Kompany made his fourth successive league start against Palace and marked it with a third clean sheet and a second goal.

The centre-half has racked up 34 points in that spell and suddenly looks as guaranteed a starter as anyone can be under Guardiola.

Much like his compatriot De Bruyne, the Belgian has a hefty price (5.9). That, and a miserable, injury-hit season has rightly kept his ownership to a bare minimum.

But Kompany has always had the pedigree and now has his fitness and form back to boot. He presents a differential, albeit a costly one and so far ahead of Gameweek 37, he is the most popular defensive acquisition.

Adam Smith
A frugal 14,000+ managers paid 4.5 for the Bournemouth defender as a cheaper alternative to Charlie Daniels (5.2) and it proved a canny investment.

Smith notched his fifth assist of the campaign in the 2-2 draw with Stoke City and was unlucky not to score when he hit the post in the first-half.

Three bonus points gave him a seven-point haul to take him to 21 points from his last three starts.

Bournemouth offer just two remaining fixtures but they’re at home to Burnley next, with Smith’s 6.6% ownership surely set to hold and start the full-back, ignoring the lure of double Gameweek assets.

Jamie Vardy, Marc Albrighton
Leicester City are handed a testing double Gameweek – away at Man City, before hosting Spurs, which would normally be enough to deter investment.

But there’s fixtures, and then there’s form, and Vardy has the latter in abundance.

Two assists in the 3-0 win over Watford mean that he’s delivered points in all but one match since Gameweek 26.

More than 40,000 moved for the striker before yesterday’s deadline and he’s already back in the top 15 for transfers-in despite the less than delightful double to come.

Albrighton, meanwhile, has already proved to be a very efficient budget “enabler” in the Gameweek 36 Wildcard.

His goal against the Hornets was his second in five matches as he continues to provide potential for a modest 4.9 price tag.

Robert Huth, Kasper Schmeichel
Just as two attacking Foxes catch the eye, another defensive pair make their late-season play for attention.

Four clean sheets in seven for Leicester has promoted Huth’s stock ahead of that testing double, with the German’s undoubted attacking threat offering an extra dimension.

Another attempt on target against Watford took his tally to 23 efforts in the box – no FPL defender has recorded more.

Meanwhile, Schemeichel has largely been ignored in the clamour for double Gameweek keepers – only 4,000 brought him this week – but he made seven saves today to claim maximum bonus points and his first double-digit haul of the season.

The Dane now has 10 save points from his last 10 Gameweeks and looks good for more of the same in the run-in, as well as the opportunity of a clean sheet from a home match with Bournemouth on the final day – the Foxes have had three shut-outs from their last four at the King Power.

Jordan Pickford
The Sunderland stopper was outstanding as he kept a first clean sheet since Gameweek 29, making five saves for a second successive match and returning two bonus points the surprise 2-0 win at Hull City.

Pickford is second only to Burnley’s Tom Heaton for saves over the season (120 v 136) despite playing seven matches fewer.

His ownership has climbed steadily, and those who looked to him for his two Gameweek 37 fixtures as part of their Bench Boost squad will be decidedly encouraged by today’s display.

Pickford is currently second to Petr Cech and Willy Cabellero for new acquisitions, as the relegated-but-relaxed Sunderland threaten to actually enjoy their exit from the Premier League.

Craig Dawson
The Baggies right-back headed a fourth goal from his last ten Gameweeks in the 2-2 draw at Burnley, confirming his new status as their major goal threat at set-pieces.

Dawson has overshadowed team-mate Gareth McAuley since finding the net for the first of those goals in Gameweek 24, mustering eight attempts to the Irishman’s modest total of three.

Clearly, Tony Pulis appears to have earmarked Dawson as his new key man at set-plays, suggesting that those considering a risky investment in a West Brom defender ahead of their double Gameweek should re-align their sights.

In Decline

Tom Heaton
With Wildcards in play, the 19.5%-owned Burnley man has suffered a bout of unpopularity – he was sold by 21,000 ahead of Gameweek 36 and is likely to suffer more after an unusually porous defensive performance at Turf Moor.

Having conceded only 14 goals from 16 home fixtures prior to today, shipping two goals in one match was bad enough. Being so generous to a West Brom side that hadn’t scored for five matches rather put the tin lid on it.

Fantasy managers agreed – Heaton is now suffering further sales ahead of fixtures with Bournemouth and West Ham as the double Gameweek keepers push him to the sidelines.

Gylfi Sigurdsson
The Icelander suffered a minor loss of ownership ahead of Swansea City’s vital 1-0 win today, despite their talisman having returned an assist and that sublime free-kick at Old Trafford.

Sigurdsson’s remaining owners were seeking another productive day against Everton, but that failed to materialise.

In an edgy encounter, he put in a subdued performance which saw Sigurdsson muster just one shot on goal. Another ownership loss is now expected, although with Sunderland and West Brom left to play, there is merit in holding the 10.9% owned midfielder as a differential.

Romelu Lukaku
The Belgian suffered heavy sales of 153,000+ ahead of Gameweek 36 as strikers with a double dose of fixtures stole his thunder.

Another blank away day at Swansea won’t have improved the mood of the 40.7% of managers who kept the faith for one more week.

Lukaku has now produced just a single goal in his last nine trips and he’s already the most sold asset ahead of next Friday’s deadline, with more than 14,000 already jumping ship.

1,869 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Fingerspitzengefühl
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Would it be natural for reporters to ask Conte about his thoughts on rotation if Chelsea were to seal the PL early?

    1. TheTinman
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Weird question. Are you Dutch

      1. Fingerspitzengefühl
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Sadly no, only Norwegian

      2. Lingardium Leviosa.
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Is this racist? It sounds racist.

        1. Hibbo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          Eh?

        2. TheTinman
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          Just the way the sentence was formed but very good English
          A compliment of anything

          1. TheTinman
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 12 months ago

            If

          2. Fingerspitzengefühl
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 12 months ago

            Well cheers for the compliment 😛

            1. TheTinman
              • 8 Years
              6 years, 12 months ago

              P.s he will rotate. Anyone who says otherwise has double or triple chelsea.

    2. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Aye it comes naturally.

  2. Lingardium Leviosa.
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Going balls out for 37.

    Heaton > Willy
    Baines > Huth
    Zaha > Mahrez

    -8 now, may go to -12!! 😮

    1. TheTinman
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Hmmmmmm keep Baines.
      But other two can go for hits I reckon.

      1. Lingardium Leviosa.
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Cheers. Have Holgate tho

        1. TheTinman
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          Watford won't score

    2. asquishypotato
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Is that considered balls out?

      Fairly template apart from Mahrez

  3. asquishypotato
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Laughing at my rival for having Gabriel thinking he won't play...

    Now he has Billy Jones first sub.

    1. CloudSky
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Gabriel will probably play.

    2. TheTinman
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Gabriel bound to get minutes

    3. Sponge-worthy
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      That rival of yours will be sad..

    4. Sterling is £11Mill..…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Who is this billy jones by the way?? I'm guessing a Burnley defender?

  4. HD7
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Zaha to Pedro in 37 for -4 ?

    1. TheTinman
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Pedro??... Awful player. You are relying on luck

      1. Lingardium Leviosa.
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Bit harsh. I'd do it.

        1. TheTinman
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          Prefer Sane if you can afforf

          1. HD7
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 12 months ago

            Cant Afford it :/

    2. FPLHaggis
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Hold Zaha, Palace now need a result

      1. Sterling is £11Mill..…
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Don't hold wilffried palace are woeful

        1. HD7
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          So...who to get have money around Pedro price (6.8)

          1. Sterling is £11Mill..…
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 12 months ago

            I would go Pedro or albrighton personally but many will disagree. Think Leicester will finish the season on a high and albrighton can def get points if Leicester are in form. If not him then I guess Pedro . or josh king if u don't mind a single

            1. HD7
              • 7 Years
              6 years, 12 months ago

              Have King and Smith...dont mind them at all 🙂 The thing is I used Wc in 34 (because of Ibra injury) and took Cech and Pick...now before this GW I would have probably taken Caballero and Pick and have more money... Still I think to make Gibson to Holgate or Kone and Zaha to Pedeo for -4...you agree ? 🙂

              1. Sterling is £11Mill..…
                • 7 Years
                6 years, 12 months ago

                I much prefer albrighton to Pedro sorry didn't make that very clear. Everyone sees hard fixtures and writes Leicester off. Look it's same team as last season but kante >ndidi, they have form. Season before last they had bad season and at the end they found great form. I expect Leicester to probably win most of their next games and score in all even against city and spurs

                1. HD7
                  • 7 Years
                  6 years, 12 months ago

                  Well dont see them getting too much against City and Spurs to be fair ... 🙂

  5. TheTinman
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    How much would Morata cost Utd Liverpool Arsenal or Chelsea

    1. T444
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Eight million of Ugandan dollars

      1. Pariße
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Which is about the price of chewing gum

  6. TheTinman
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Oh and how do I become a mod
    The site is slipping.

    1. Lingardium Leviosa.
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Hey take a break from the interwebs ok 😛

      1. TheTinman
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Goodnight.

  7. Weasel Boy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Clichy worth the risk or just go with Huth/Simpson?
    5.4 is all I can afford for a defender

  8. DAN DARE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    One big haul and now everyone seems to be clambering to get KDB in. Some even contemplating ditching Sane and presumably taking a hit to do it. Crazy. If you wc'd this week, you did it with 35 gw's worth of stats. Now you want to tear it up based on 1 game. Everybody be cool

    1. TheTinman
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Majority on here are morons

    2. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      I am keeping my team as is barring injuries.

      It will give me two free transfers for the end of season and some mad captain choice.
      I remember captaining hunt for hull one year and he scored.

  9. camarozz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Guys could ya help me here. My BB for nxt wk has 2 single gw players on the benc and since my rival will be using his TC I have to maximize my bench.
    Would you swap Stephens and Daniels for Gabriel and Davies for -4

    Will both of those play both games??

    Selling Stephens is only way I can afford Davies who is half decent.

    1. nkhoughton
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      a sgw can outscore a dgw especially if they arent nailed on i wouldnt drop daniels

      just captain who you think he will captain and its damage control

  10. Sterling is £11Mill..…
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Anyone else bored of this season now? Players probably are also. I will enjoy the time of football but can't wait to start a fresh next season

    1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      No I am still trying to win mini leagues and see can I beat my highest ever OR rank.

    2. Skid Vicious
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Nope! Still loving it.
      Maybe just maybe:
      I just got a good break.
      Decided to play my chips the other way round.
      TC next week better be good!

  11. Bruno Bruno!!
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Is a top 100k finish considered a good fpl season

    1. lespaul
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      No I'd say 10k is good. 50k pretty good

      1. DAN DARE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Disagree. Top 100k = top 2 to 3%. How's that not good?

    2. Sterling is £11Mill..…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Top 100k is good

    3. @chapellefpl OR 577TH
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Not for my standards. Top 1k minimum.

      1. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Can anybody else smell that?
        #neverlinksteam

        1. Hibbo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          Dung.

        2. fedolefan
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          Hey, give the guy a break. Ruth has set high standards for him.

    4. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      No.

      100k = acceptable
      50k = ok
      20k = decent
      10k = good
      5k = solid

      1. DAN DARE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        And you've had 1 top 100k finish in 7 seasons?

        1. Team Cruel
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          As a casual for all of those seasons apart from the last two. I would rarely give my moves more than a 2 minute thought.

          If you spend a few hours on this game every week then you better make sure you get an ok to decent finish at the very least.

          1. Sterling is £11Mill..…
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 12 months ago

            Well u have to predict the future basically in fpl so it's luck also tbh, planning of course helps but it's not everything

            1. DVassell
              • 12 Years
              6 years, 12 months ago

              So much burnnnn- this is my worst season by far. First time ever not in top 100k

            2. Team Cruel
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              6 years, 12 months ago

              You very much so make your own luck. It's not only about predicting the future but also having the ability to reflect on your approach (tactics, transfers, trends etc). I've learnt this season that you can't be too circumspect at the start of the season. Next season I'll likely be aggressive during the autumn. Not miss out on price rises early in the week just because I want the safety of the Friday pressers. I believe I can up my game this way (the only future predicting involved here is hoping the player survives the training sessions which he'll do 99 % of the times).

              Obviously there is the luck aspect, you won't be immune to a stinker of a season but you take it on the chin, accept it was bad and move on. If you spend a few hours every week preparing and researching then I would say the norm is you make 100k 4 out of 5 seasons.

    5. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      It is OK shows you have paid attention to form/fixtures occasionally at least.

    6. Cheltnamshire LaLaLa
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Youre in the realms of respectability i reckon

    7. JÆKS ⭐
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      A guy in my ML is playing his first season and he just makes these random calls (bought Mirallas this week for example), he's sitting at 50K. So I don't really consider anything above that, a good season 😀

      1. DAN DARE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        He's got lucky. My ml rival has been playing for 8 seasons. Never outside top 50k. This season ranked 427k. Grafting helps. It's no guarantee of success. Top 100k means you've played the game better than 98% of people. That's good

        1. JÆKS ⭐
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          Well idk, 50% are dead teams, just to give you an example, in 35 Ibrahimovic was the most captained player, he was injured 😀 I am playing my 3rd full season now and was ranked 30K, 1K and now 2K. I thought that first season was awful from me, so if someone like me who barely had any knowledge of the PL can finish 30K in his first season, I don't really consider that as a good rank 😀

      2. Sterling is £11Mill..…
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        He probably just had like costa hazard eriksen alli Kane alonso Heston for whole season and just rode the boring wave

        1. JÆKS ⭐
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          He has never owned Costa Alli Kane or Alonso the whole season. But had the armband on the right player at the right time though, like those back to back weeks Sanchez ran riot (the week after I sold him 🙁 )

          But yea he got lucky, got some awful picks in, like Negredo mid season, where he scored/assisted in a couple of weeks, Vokes for some reason... 😀

        2. JÆKS ⭐
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          Just noticed that he hasn't taken a single hit this season, remarkable!

          1. Sterling is £11Mill..…
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 12 months ago

            He sounds super lucky my weakest point is my captain picks it seems

            1. JÆKS ⭐
              • 9 Years
              6 years, 12 months ago

              No with you on that one, always doubting between two and then picking the wrong one, like with that Lukaku haul against Bournemouth

  12. nkhoughton
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Caballero Pickford 1.8 itb
    Alonso Yoshida Stephens Holgate Gabriel
    Hazard Alexis King Coutinho Eriksen
    Kane Jesus Anichebe

    0.2 shy of Coutinho to KDB

    What would you do?

  13. Egyptian Giza
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    how likely will stone play, if 0% who to take out, benteke or zaha?

  14. Goal Scoring Mids Stats
    Parm
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Some great goalscoring seasons from midfield this year, here's an explanation on how they happened by using xG and chances created maps, which explain a fair bit.

    Eden Hazard has scored at more than double his open play xG total, so many good goal this year from 'impossible' angles and not 'that' many goals from central areas. Conte allowing him to roam is good for his output, more goals from the inside right position that I expected. Looking at the chances created for him map(which only shows his goals that have an assister), his goals are pretty much self created(think goals vs Arsenal & Everton). Might be great if Conte played Cesc more?

    Total Open Play xG: 6.235
    Total Open Play Goals: 13

    Shot locations: http://i.imgur.com/tK6sBgG.png
    Chances created receiving locations: http://i.imgur.com/jKZD1ld.png

    Alexis Sánchez has scored over his xG tally, all his goals(except 1 vs WHU) came from central areas and there'a a massive cluster of blocked/off target shots in the inside left position and outside the penalty area(assuming most from when he's played LW). He has about a 50/50 ratio of self creation:set on a plate for him so this Arsenal team aren't half bad for him. One thing: KEEP HIM UP TOP WENGER.

    Total Open Play xG: 12.21
    Total Open Play Goals: 15

    Shot locations: http://i.imgur.com/7LpIIKQ.png
    Chances created receiving locations: http://i.imgur.com/DqglFoh.png

    Dele Alli exceeded his xG total for this season as a result of his outstanding finishing ability of high quality chances between the penalty spot and six-yard-box. A classic goalscoring #10 with Muller-like movement in the penalty area, he compliments Kane's tendacy to drop off and run the channels to involve himself in the build-up around the penalty area. So long as Spurs keep creating for him(esp. from the right wing), he'll deliver.

    Total Open Play xG: 10.55
    Total Open Play Goals: 16

    Shot locations: http://i.imgur.com/oFStaFN.png
    Chances created receiving locations: http://i.imgur.com/CoOBkL0.png

    Josh King has doubled his xG total this season due to his high goal conversion rate(24.2%; 1st among mids with 5+ goals) and low shot volume. Doubts have to be raised over the long term sustainability of his finishing but while he's in the form of his life I think you just have to sit back and appreciate a great year from a good player, maybe don't pick him next year when he's £7.5m though.

    Total Open Play xG: 6.482
    Total Open Play Goals: 13

    Shot locations: http://i.imgur.com/4avKcoQ.png
    Chances created receiving locations: http://i.imgur.com/PK9OqS7.png

    Sadio Mané has registered 7 shots from outside the box all year long, something that is key to his goalscoring this season. Part of his success is him being deployed from the right opposed to the left, where usually even the smallest sight of goal prompts a shot from an inside forward(see Sánchez above). The timing of his inside runs to the unoccupied centre of the area(thank you Firmino false 9) and clinical finishing(2nd highest conversion rate behind King) has seen the £30m fulfill his pricetag and a majority of his goals coming from around the penalty spot.

    Total Open Play xG: 9.976
    Total Open Play Goals: 13

    Shot locations: http://i.imgur.com/L4NPyCl.png
    Chances created receiving locations: http://i.imgur.com/KtaVcbp.png

    Heung-Min Son has had a breakout year for Spurs. But is 12 goals at a ratio of 2:1 compared to his xG a sustainable record? His lack of shots from the centre of the area is frightening and make xG noobs like myself questioning the meaning of life. His love of coming onto shots created down the right has given him good enough numbers for FPL managers this year...just.

    Total Open Play xG: 6.000
    Total Open Play Goals: 12

    Shot locations: http://i.imgur.com/ePNe3eK.png
    Chances created receiving locations: http://i.imgur.com/ADqvqwO.png

    As someone who was on Firmino's FPL wagon this year, his cluster of central penalty area shots is a joy to see. His chance creation map is pretty much 180° around the area, this guy is the hub of the Liverpool attack. What's disappointing is his ability to only outscore his xG by one but providing Liverpool play him as a false 9 AND don't sign a striker, Firmino is my breakout star of next season. With a better conversion percentage I think it leaves him with 20-goals-a-season potential.

    Total Open Play xG: 10.08
    Total Open Play Goals: 11

    Shot locations: http://i.imgur.com/qIlVmyt.png
    Chances created receiving locations: http://i.imgur.com/TfbM4wG.png

    Shot & chance created data is all here from Paul Riley(@footballfactman on twitter) is you want to fiddle around for yourself:

    Shots: https://public.tableau.com/profile/paul.riley#!/vizhome/PremierLeagueShotDashboard2016-17/PLShotDashboard2016-17

    Chances Created: https://public.tableau.com/profile/paul.riley#!/vizhome/PremierLeagueChanceCreationDashboard2016-17/PremierLeagueChanceCreationDashboard2016-17

    1. Hibbo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Great post.

      1. Parm
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Thanks Tony, do you think I have been a little harsh on Son & King?

        1. Hibbo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          Personally i think your comments are fair enough.

          At the same time when King starts these days you expect a goal nearly. Also given starts Son gets amongst the goals. Could we see regression? You would imagine.

          You would imagine King could well be a forward next year too.

          1. Parm
            • 12 Years
            6 years, 12 months ago

            Yeah, there are obvious factors that xG doesn't account for like King being on penalties and Son being fed by Eriksen & co(better crosses etc.) but I doubt they'll both get to 10+ NPG next year.

    2. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      This should be a community article.

      1. Parm
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Was considering it but there's way too many images to post. Might start an FPL blog with these sorts of posts if you guys really like them.

    3. rainy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Top stuff, Parm

      1. Parm
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Thanks Rainy. Anything you'd add to the post?

        1. rainy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          Stats, data visualisation, and analysis — what more could anyone want 😉

          I do like the blog idea, as the visuals really serve to unpack the positioning aspect of the analysis.

    4. Cheltnamshire LaLaLa
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Can you give a brief explanation of the xG statistic?

      1. Parm
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        xG stands for Expected Goals, where each attempt to score is assigned a probability of resulting in a goal, based on location, type of shot, assist details and some other factors. The average player, as you'd expect, will score at a 1 goal to 1 xG ratio.

        1. Cheltnamshire LaLaLa
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          Great - thanks. So any large deviation from xG would be expected to be unsustainable or demonstrate a consistently better than expected finisher

          Thanks for doing this work Parm

          1. Parm
            • 12 Years
            6 years, 12 months ago

            No problem, it's a great metric to use but obviously sample size is key.

            If you want to compare previous Hazard/Sánchez/Alli years Paul Riley has data from 14/15(you might have to work out their actual open play goals though): https://public.tableau.com/profile/paul.riley#!/

        2. Hibbo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          How is xG calculated?

          I'm interested in something. I have ran through Hazard and Son through the comparison tool as their xG is roughly the same.

          Interesting their attempted shots and shots on target for the season are freakishly similiar which one key difference. Son has played 800 minutes less this has goal attempts at a quicker rate of minutes.

          1. Parm
            • 12 Years
            6 years, 12 months ago

            http://11tegen11.net/2015/08/14/a-close-look-at-my-new-expected-goals-model/

            This is @11tegen11's more complex method and I suspect Paul Riley does his completely differently, he's explained a very basic model that anyone can use here though: https://differentgame.wordpress.com/2017/04/29/an-xg-model-for-everyone-in-20-minutes-ish/

            1. Hibbo
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              6 years, 12 months ago

              You like working with large data sets in excel?

              1. Parm
                • 12 Years
                6 years, 12 months ago

                Never done anything like this myself, just a consumer of the data. There's a lot of good data analysis guys on twitter if you're on there: https://twitter.com/colintrainor/lists/football-analysts/members & more

    5. ILOVEBAPS
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      I too love Firmino over any other Pool asset. Hope he stays up top next season.

      King will be classed as a striker next season yeah?

      1. Parm
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Firmino is performing with average finishing numbers which I expect to go up and his assist potential is always up there too. Problem for him since around Xmas has been Origi.

        Recency bias suggests so yeah, without Afobe/Wilson FPL will probably(wrongly) reclassify him when he's, if anything a second striker like Alli/Firmino.

        1. Sterling is £11Mill..…
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          Neither king nor firmino won't go up or alli they will just be super pricey Mids.

          1. Parm
            • 12 Years
            6 years, 12 months ago

            For me if you are an actual #9 you are a striker in FPL, anything else you're a midfielder. False 9, second striker, inside forward, all midfielders outherwise we won't have any good midfielders left.

    6. TJ_777
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      xG isn't an amazing metric. The players who overperform xG can never be guessed. If all these players were to have this xG next year it would still be unknown whether they would do better or worse or even get close. 2:1 ratio is pretty big deviation

    7. Eden Hazardous
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      One thing re: Hazard , he has scored 3 goals this season after taking the keeper out of the equation (by dribbling them) and further 2 shots which haven't resulted in goals. THese shots should have a MUCH higher xG than Riley's model gives them to be

      On the whole , great post. King's value has been tremendous but cant see myself buying him if hes classified as striker next season

    8. FC Lackless [BALEGIUM]
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      This I like.

    9. andy85wsm
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Hey Parm - this is excellent!

      xG is definitely something I'm interested in - I follow quite a few of the guys on Twitter, including Paul who you mentioned.

      I'm hoping that Mark can get xG data into the members area next season - I think it's possible so fingers crossed!

      1. Sticky Mockwell
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        xG in members area would be great

    10. Dino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Excellent post parm. As a long suffering firmino owner I always got the feeling mane was the one that prevented him getting forward into no9 position and that a lot of his runs ended up being decoy runs for

      1. Dino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Mane

    11. tm245
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      No idea how I missed this but it is one of the best posts I've read on here in a long time. Great stuff, especially the commentary -- King looks like a no-go for next year with regression, a higher price and a possible position switch all looming.

      I was a bit surprised by how low Hazard's xG number was, though as you pointed out he has scored some tightly angled shots recently. Makes you realize that class also needs to be factored in -- I have no doubts of his ability to sustain this productivity, as his track record supports, but I am filled with doubt about King, whose xG is quite similar.

    12. The Mighty One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Wow. Awesome write-up. Thanks!

  15. Super Silva Haze
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Do i keep King or bring in 2 Dgw players. Planning on BB and these 2 transfers will give me 14 for the Dgw.

    Pickford Jaku
    Bailly Yoshida Gabriel Stephens Holgate
    Sanchez Hazard King Eriksen Sane
    Kane Gabbi Jesus

    King >> Ndidi
    Holgate >> Vertonghan

    Thanks

    1. FPLHaggis
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Keep King & Holgy

    2. grumpyman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      the end result in points may be similar.

  16. barracuda
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    What's up with Pablo Zabaleta these days? Is he an option in GW37?

    1. nkhoughton
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      id steer clear kompany if budget allows

      1. barracuda
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        No mate, lacking 0.2 to get him without a hit 🙁

  17. The Royal Robin
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Currently got 10 players in the DGW next week, but I'm going to imagine that's fairly average? Still cannie wait.

  18. camarozz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Be honest .
    What's the point having bench boost for a double gw if ya have single gw players on the bench??

    Stephens and Daniels OUT
    Gabriel and Davies (TOT) IN -4.

    Gives me 14 dgwers in a wk where my rival is using his TC....

    1. Pariße
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Because some single GW players are very likely to haul despite not having a DGW.

      1. camarozz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Daniels ,Holgate and king will be my single gw players

    2. FPLHaggis
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Because if you didn't have BB, Daniels and Kingy should be in your XI team given their fixtures, and thus your bench players are now dgwers 🙂

    3. JÆKS ⭐
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Whut?

      Rose and Mustafi are back so Davies and Gabriel are far from nailed, I own Gabriel myself and am looking to ship him

  19. Bruno Bruno!!
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    What changes would you make to this team

    Cech | Caballero
    Alonso Vertonghen Cahill | Holgate Stephens
    Hazard Alli Sane King |Albright
    Kane Jesus Gabbiadini

    0.1itb

    Any suggestions much appreciated

    1. Sterling is £11Mill..…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Upgrade gabbi somehow think he is going to be a let down.

    2. vectorman
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      I'd say Gabbi possibly but the jury is out on that front.. Probably none, looks pretty good to me

  20. HD7
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    For 37: No other money so:

    Gibson to Holgate
    and Zaha to Pedro for -4

    ?

  21. barracuda
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Eriksen to Silva?

    1. vectorman
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      He was fantastic in that game today weren't he?. Yes he's not exactly as big an FPL asset these days but when on top of his game he's a little magician that guy.

      Sorry that probably didn't answer your question. Have you got 3 Spurs? might be worth it if you have though Sane I still think a good shout as well.

      1. barracuda
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Just Erik from the midfield but I think they could struggle against Man Utd and Leicester

        1. vectorman
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          I got 3 of em, really want to get rid of one probably for Sane. Silva though is a nice differential isn't he, if he carries on playing like that he is.

  22. Jimmy Boy
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Opinions on me triple captaining Hazard next weekend? DGW against WBA (a) and WAT (h)

    1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      I considered it. But if Chelsea have the title won Hazard is likely to be rested for at least one game.
      I am hoping for a high scoring boro draw v chelsea for that reason.

      In saying that though, hazard is capable of doing well as a sub as seen in the FA cup

    2. bigbudgie
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      very very very good idea?

  23. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    So 2.1% of FPL teams are playing their triple captain this week?

    That can't be right.

    Am I looking in the right https://fpldiscovery.wordpress.com/2017/05/05/1617-gw36-team-selection-and-stats/#more-7934

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      * right place

      1. barracuda
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Are you trying to say that the % is too low?

        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          I thought it would be higher, yeah

          1. barracuda
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 12 months ago

            Yes, the number is surprising to be honest.

            1. Sterling is £11Mill..…
              • 7 Years
              6 years, 12 months ago

              Is there a percentage of live teams left in fpl?

    2. vectorman
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      I think there's a large number of people who forget they can't WC and TC in the same week. 😉

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        Good point.

        1. vectorman
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 12 months ago

          Slips my mind sometimes until it all comes flooding back into the memory banks again. 😀

  24. Fowler23
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Cech Pickford
    Vert Fuchs Bailly Stones Stephens
    Alexis Hazard Alli Sane De roon
    Kane Jesus Gabbi

    1FT. 0.5 in the bank. Bench boost in play
    A) De Roon to Albrighton / Matic
    B) Stones to Gabriel
    C) Bailly & Stones to Azpi & holgate -4
    D) Kane and Bailly to Costa & Alonso

  25. bigbudgie
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    YES! TOP 3K!

    (of the ffs league shhhhhhh)

  26. @chapellefpl OR 577TH
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Carrying on from the acceptable rank question.

    100k or worse = Might aswell quit.
    50k = bad
    20k = ok suppose
    10k = good
    5k = top player
    Top 1k = excellent
    Top100 = my level what I aim for

    1. JÆKS ⭐
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Agree with that

    2. barracuda
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Maybe we should clap you with the pants down? Would that do the job? 😀

    3. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      This is silly you have to factor in other variables.

      1) Is it a pesron's first season?
      2) Was the person lucky/unlucky over 1 season
      3) Is the person consistent over a number of seasons?
      4) Did real life get in the way?

    4. DVassell
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      So I might as well quit this season then? Haha

      1. fedolefan
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        No, keep going. He's clueless. I quit like at GW15 last year for 15 weeks or so because I had a rough start and "life got in the way". Finished well outside the million and insane punts in the last few weeks that never came off only made it worse. There is merit in plugging away and finishing as high as you can. Much better season this time around.

    5. Sterling is £11Mill..…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Top 100 = waking up and first thing you do is check dinnerys twitter feed

      1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        I don't get this dinnery obsession, he never gives any info that cannot be sourced on your own.

        Plus he just makes guesses albeit educated guesses and tries to keep it vague like a palm reader!

    6. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Would the number 1 in the world be a God on here?

      1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 12 months ago

        No but when he dies he will go to the afterlife with 100 fpl virigin's.

    7. vectorman
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Bloody hell Chapelle that's a bit harsh those ratings.. 😀

      Annoyingly slipped out the top 10k last season on the final day, I'll never get over that lol.

  27. JÆKS ⭐
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Been sitting around the same rank for 7 weeks straight now, TC Sanchez, I need you!

  28. DVassell
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    Do I pull the trigger now as I have exact money for:

    Gabbiadini+Cech+Bailly> Jesus+Willy+Ake

    1. JÆKS ⭐
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Not for me

    2. bigbudgie
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      woooooaaaaah there horsey

  29. JÆKS ⭐
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    I'm wondering if I should ship Gabriel + Bailly for a hit next week? Think both are likely to only play one...

  30. 8ball
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 12 months ago

    JWP, Albrighton or Capoue as 5th mid? 5m budget

    1. general_franco
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 months ago

      Albrighton