What the Fixtures and Form Say – A season review

This article series kicked off in Gameweek 8 and aimed to use future and form data to assess the best captaincy options for each set of fixtures, based on the top six in the FFScout captaincy poll.

Here I take a look back at this method’s first season to consider its potential as a predictor of captaincy points hauls.

Before assessing the results, here’s what I defined a captaincy success to be:

• Explosive = 10+ points
• Success = 7-9 points
• Average = 4-6 points
• Fail = no attacking results

GAMEWEEKS 8 TO 17

YMA Picks / FFS Capt Poll (no1)

Gw 8 – Costa (9) / Sanchez (5)
Gw 9 – Lukaku (5) / Sanchez (3)
Gw 10 – Sanchez (13) / Sanchez (13)
Gw 11 – Hazard (19) / Aguero (6)
Gw 12 – Lukaku (2) / Aguero (2)
Gw 13 – Firmino (3) / Aguero (6)
Gw 14 – Kane (13) / Kane (13)
Gw 15 – Mane (8) / Sanchez (5)
Gw 16 – Kane (2) / Kane (2)
Gw 17 – Eriksen (2) / Kane (2)

Total YMA: 76 / Total FFS Capt Poll: 57
Avg YMA: 7.6 / Avg FFS Capt Poll: 5.7

GAMEWEEKS 21 TO 34

YMA Picks / FFS Capt Poll (no1):

Gw 21 – Giroud (5) / Sanchez (11)
Gw 22 – Ibrahimovic (2) / Sanchez (8)
Gw 23 – Alli (3) / Sanchez (4)
Gw 25 – Sigurdsson (6) / Sanchez (15)
Gw 26 – Lukaku (6) / Lukaku (6)
Gw 27 – Sterling (6) / Aguero (7)
Gw 28 – Mane (2) / Lukaku (12)
Gw 29 – Lukaku (16) / Lukaku (16)
Gw30 – Lukaku (2) / Costa (1)
Gw31 – Sanchez (3) / Vardy (7)
Gw32 – Aguero (9) / Aguero (9)
Gw33 – Kane (12) / Lukaku (2)
Gw34 – Kane (4) / Rashford (2)

Total YMA: 76 / Total FFS Capt Poll: 100
Avg YMA: 5.84 / Avg FFS Capt Poll: 7.69

Overall SUCCESS

Now let’s have a look at the combined totals for the 23 articles so far:

Total YMA: 152 / Total FFS Capt Poll: 157
Avg YMA: 6.6 / Avg FFS Capt Poll: 6.8

FORM V FIXTURES

Which is the better indicator of success? Here I look at how the best in form and best according to the fixtures fared each week.

Form Total: 126 / Fixture Total: 103
Form Average: 5.72 / Fixture Average: 4.68

Both Form and Fixtures are divided by 22 articles, as oppose to 23. This is because the top pick for form in Gameweek 25 was Jesus who was injured after the article had come out. Also Gameweek 27 was centred on Manchester City Double Gameweek assets so form was not able to be calculated by factoring in two fixtures. It would have skewed the statistics somewhat in my opinion.

CLEAN SHEET POTENTIAL TABLE

This article series also includes a look at potential clean sheets to further add to the Gameweek predictions

This shows that 39 out of 75 potential clean sheets were kept according to the tables, offering a 1.9 clean sheet per Gameweek average. A third (10 out of 15 articles) correctly predicted that the number one in each week’s table would keep a clean sheet.

CONCLUSIONS

• Out of all the articles, only one player who finished top of the form table has gone on to score the most amount of points from the Top 6 in the FFScout captaincy poll each Gameweek (Kane Gameweek 33).
• According to the statistics, there is a 1.04 Gameweek average point advantage when choosing form over fixture as a sole indicator, with form prevailing with 5.72 points to 4.68 points respectively, equalling a 23 or 46 point (with x2) added difference to your overall score if managers had solely picked the top pick from the form table.
• Three players who finished top of the fixture table have gone on to score the most amount of points from the Top 6 in the FFScout captaincy poll each Gameweek.
• Combining the form and fixture indicators together (YMA picks), results in a 6.6 point average with 152 points in total.
• Following the FFScout captaincy poll leader each week (assuming a FPL manager owns the player) would have returned you 157 points with an average of 6.8.
• Ultimately timing and luck play a big part in captaincy success. The statistics suggest that form offers a bigger point potential overall, whereas the fixture indicator provides the potential for a more explosive return in any given individual Gameweek.
• This series would suggest that as time goes on, the knowledge of the FFS Community voting in the poll increases and therefore the captain picks become more reliable as a result.

I hope you’ve enjoyed the articles and if it’s something the community wishes me to continue with next season, do let me know in the comment section below. Enjoy the summer break.