Scout Notes

Scout Notes – Pre-Season

Mohamed Salah marks his Liverpool debut with a goal, but Brighton’s main man Anthony Knockaert is injured as the pre-season schedule gathers pace.

Elsewhere, a Dwight Gayle double does the trick for Newcastle United, and Jonathan Walters opens his account for Burnley.

Here’s the run-down on last night’s action.

Wigan Athletic 1 Liverpool 1

Mohamed Salah scored on his Liverpool debut as more members of the Reds’ potent midfield were given their first pre-season outing at Wigan Athletic.

The summer signing from Roma, who has already tempted 11.4% of Fantasy Premier League managers to invest in him, struck on the stroke of half-time when he converted a Roberto Firmino pass.

Manager Jurgen Klopp fielded Salah, Philippe Coutinho and Adam Lallana in an attacking first-half team set up in a 4-3-3, with goalkeeper Simon Mignolet also handed his first start as the Reds upped their preparations for the new campaign.

Liverpool’s shape was difficult to assess, with Klopp clearly allowing for fluidity in his formation. Georginio Wijnaldum appeared to take up the number six role as a deep lying midfielder, with Ben Woodburn and Lallana also dropping alongside him at times. Roberto Firmino played as the central attacker, although he swapped with Salah throughout the first period.

A completely different side took to the pitch of a second half that even Klopp was forced to admit was ‘a little bit boring, to be honest’.

Of rather more interest to Fantasy managers were local reports that Liverpool, as well as upping their bid for RB Leipzig midfielder Naby Keita, are in advanced talks with Hull City over the signing of left-back Andy Robertson.

Should Robertson make the move, the 10.5%-owned James Milner’s place at left-back will no longer be assured, particularly as Klopp will have to rotate his squad to cope with the demands of Champions League football. Milner would, however, be expected to retain a starting role initially.

Liverpool XI First half: Mignolet; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Klavan, Flanagan; Wijnaldum, Lallana, Woodburn; Salah, Coutinho, Firmino.

Liverpool XI Second half: Karius; Gomez, Stewart, Lovren, Milner; Henderson, Grujic, Chirivella; Solanke, Sturridge, Origi.

Brighton And Hove Albion 2 Fortuna Dusseldorf 0

Star man Anthony Knockaert lasted only ten minutes of Brighton’s first pre-season match.

The 8.5%-owned midfielder limped off after receiving treatment to an injury sustained in a heavy tackle and later left the ground on crutches, his leg encased in a protective boot.

Hughton confirmed post-match that the Frenchman had suffered an ankle injury.

“It’s too early to tell at the moment. He’s a little bit sore and got some swelling on his ankle. We’ve had incidents in the past with Anthony where we thought it was going to be bad, but he’s always made good recoveries. We hope it’s the same with this one, but we certainly won’t know anything about the injury for another couple of days.”

Should Knockaert be out for a lengthy spell, it will be a bitter blow for manager Chris Hughton, who will have to start the Seagulls’ top-flight campaign without the Championship player of the year.

The injury overshadowed a 2-0 win for Brighton, with two late goals in as many minutes from Jamie Murphy and Tomer Hemed securing the victory.

Scots winger Murphy cut inside to open the scoring in the 77th minute before Hemed doubled the lead, the Israeli striker scoring from an Oliver Norwood cross.

Hughton used a 4-4-1-1 formation throughout, handing new signing Markus Suttner his first start at left-back, while defender Connor Goldson made his first appearance since heart surgery in the second-half team.

Fellow new boy Mat Ryan didn’t figure – the Australian keeper has been given extra time to recover from his participation in the Confederations Cup.

Brighton XI First half: Maenpaa; Bruno, Duffy, Dunk, Suttner; Knockaert (LuaLua 10), Stephens, Kayal, March; Gross; Murray.

Brighton XI Second half: Maenpaa; Rosenior, Goldson, Huenemeier, Bong; Murphy, Sidwell, Norwood, Skalak; Towell; Hemed.

Shamrock Rovers 0 Burnley 4

All three of Burnley’s summer signings started the match in Dublin, with veteran Jonathan Walters marking his debut with an early goal.

The Republic of Ireland international scored after just nine minutes, having been put through by fellow new boy Jack Cork, in a team that also featured former Leeds United full-back Charlie Taylor.

Walters was then substituted after just 33 minutes, although to date there has been no explanation as to why, as Burnley had to wait for three second-half goals to confirm their superiority.

Ashley Barnes made it two, curling home after collecting a Matthew Lowton long ball, before Robbie Brady hit the third following good work by Stephen Ward.

Sam Vokes, the 6.0-priced striker who finished last year in fine form on the way to a ten-goal season haul, rounded off the scoring, albeit in fortuitous fashion.

The Welsh international attempted to duck out of the way of a Jeff Hendrick half-volley, only for the ball to hit him on the back and go in off the bar.

Burnley XI First half: Heaton; Darikwa, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Defour, Cork; O’Neill, Gudmundsson, Walters (Agyei 34); Gray.

Burnley XI Second half: Pope; Lowton, Anderson, K Long, Ward; Ulvestad (Agyei 78), Westwood, Hendrick, Brady; Vokes, Barnes (C Long 85).

Heart of Midlothian 1 Newcastle 2

Dwight Gayle started pre-season where he left off in the Championship, grabbing both goals in a fine first-half display at Tynecastle.

The striker was the Magpies’ top scorer last season, hitting 23 goals from 26 starts, and his brace will have pleased the 11.8% of Fantasy managers who have currently made him their cut-price third forward.

New signing Florian Lejeune was given a run-out in defence for the second half by coach Rafa Benitez, but it was a returning midfielder who caught the eye.

Siem De Jong was back at the club following a loan spell with PSV Eindhoven, and he picked out Gayle with a fine pass for the first goal, part of a fine performance that suggested the Dutchman has a point to prove to Benitez.

De Jong played the No 10 role in a 4-4-1-1 formation from Benitez.

Jonjo Shelvey provided the assist for the Magpies’ second, picking out Gayle with his corner kick.

Matt Ritchie, who played a key role in leading Newcastle to the Championship title, played no part as he continues to recover from a groin operation back in April, while defender DeAndre Yedlin did not feature following his international exertions for the USA.

Newcastle XI First half: Elliot; Clark, Lascelles, Mbemba, Haïdara; Aarons, Shelvey; Diamé, Atsu, De Jong; Gayle.

Newcastle XI Second half: Elliot; Lejeune, Dummett, Mbemba (Hanley 62), Haïdara (Colback 62); Gamez, Shelvey; Diamé (Armstrong 62), Perez, De Jong; Mitrovic.

A reminder that all the friendly results and key Scout Notes are being captured here, in our Pre-Season Guide.

3,179 Comments Post a Comment
  1. BilalM
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Yoshida over Cedric? for Southampton defense

    1. Alan_T
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Cedric for me

    2. Ser Davos
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Seriously considering a defensive block here. Cedric first, followed by Yoshi then Stephens as their bonus potential was such a nice aspect of the end of last season. I've had Bertrand in drafts too due to VVD situation

  2. Forever mirin
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Something different with:
    - 5 WBs being close to pure mids in 3-4-3 systems (I dare you to find better value in similarly priced mids/strikers :p)

    Foster

    Alonso - Azpi* - Trippier - Kolasniac - Bellerin*

    Pogba - Coutinho - Willian*

    Kane - Jesus

    (Myhill - RLC - Carroll - Fletcher)

    *Will monitor ox situation
    *See if cfc signs a new RWB
    *Could change to Ramsey/Ritchie/Tadic
    *I would not double up in defence if other top teams played 3-4-3 consistantly

    What are your thoughs on this approach and my team in general?
    Any feedback is appriciated

    Thanks

    1. The Royal Robin
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      You need Lukaku.

      1. Forever mirin
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks but I disagree. Pogba is probably on pens (and FKs), Lukaku thrives with space behind opposing defenders (there will be none).
        If you take all of Lukakus goals away last season, Everton still finish 7th. What does that tell you?

        I like lukaku, and would probably have him if funds was not an issue, but believe Poga will be superior value this year

        Lastly, Mourinho will usually shut up shop while up 1 or 2 rather than going for for more goals.

    2. Jeremy Corbyn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      way too much on defense

      1. Forever mirin
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        lol this was not very constructive. Please tell me which mids/strikers that offer better value?

        1. Simon69
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          What do you need constructive criticism for? He told you what he thinks.

          1. Forever mirin
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            I like to know peoples reasoning when discussing different strategies. Weird huh?

    3. b✪mber
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      I think Pedro is better value than Pogba. Mids fluctuate in value faster, so this approach will leave you with a weak TV for the season.

      What do you do if 1 of the 9m+ mids goes wild?

      The value for the defenders is there, but the main problem w this team is balance (the main problem w every 5-3-2 is balance).

  3. Your Mum's Athletic
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Afternoon gents, first RMT of the season:

    Foster

    Milner Trippier Lindelof

    Sane Pogba Willian Ramsey

    Kane Lukaku Gayle

    Subs: Myhill RLC Chilwell 4.0

    Gone for nailed on players and balance throughout the squad, think Chilwell is underrated on here personally too.

    1. Waxys
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Good team. Is Chitwell a starter?

      1. Your Mum's Athletic
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        I believe he is and could offer great value at 4.5

    2. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      For a team of nailed players, I see a lot that aren't nailed 😉

      1. Waxys
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Just the mids really

      2. Your Mum's Athletic
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        I politely disagree with you 😉 I'm WC-ing within first 6 weeks so the likes of Willian can be sorted out

    3. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Hey YMA!
      Solid team.Im not a fan of Pogba and Ramsey but you need them to get those strikers so agreed.If you plan to wildcard early maybe you can downgrade Gayle to 4.5 to get Alli/Mane?
      Would make your bench very weak though

      1. Your Mum's Athletic
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Hey man, cheers. Pogba will go if United don't sign a DM and Ramsey I believe will be a gem in Arsenals 3 at the back formation, Wenger said he will start new season that way. Yeah the 3-5-2 is something I could consider, I always have a weak bench, maximise starting XI

        1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Yeah true,agree with you.Ramsey move could pay off but I would say Zaha is a safer bet.Do consider 3-5-2

    4. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Downgrade Milner and upgrade a mid IMO

      1. Your Mum's Athletic
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        I think Milner will be the highest scoring defender this season if he remains a regular 😯

    5. Bartowski
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Well Pool are signing Robertson as an LB so I'd consider drafting in a Chelsea defender instead.

      I also have Chilwell but obviously going to monitor if it looks like he will indeed replace Fuchs.

      1. Your Mum's Athletic
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Is the Robertson transfer looking lively? Can easy switch to a CHE defender or downgrade to Cedric and upgrade a MILF

        1. Bartowski
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          I believe it's pretty much done from what I've read.

          I like your midfield so I wouldn't worry too much. Ramsey is not one I've considered. Currently on Wiji and the other three you have.

          But yes also upgrade your MILF.

    6. Kroosin'
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      I had Milner in my initial drafts. Latest news suggests they are close to signing Robertson.

      Will you be looking at Austin instead of Gayle if he nails down a spot ?

      I am not a fan of pogba. He could still hit the post this year too you know.

    7. Forever mirin
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Good team. 7.5/10

      - Would go 442 though if you cant afford 3 premium strikers. Gayle to 4.5. Have zero faith in that striker/mid price range
      - Personally prefer Jesus and Coutinho over Lukaku and Sane, but not much in it obviously.
      - Se my post above for what my view is on cfc/ars WBs 😉

  4. Gomolon
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Good afternoon! Hows my team looking so far ?

    Foster / Begovic

    Lindelof / Trippier / Cedric / Mee / Tomkins

    KDB / Coutinho / Fabregas / Lanzini / RLC

    Lukaku / Lacazette / Gayle

    £0.0 ITB

    1. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      No attacking Spurs?

      1. Gomolon
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Could change Coutinho to Alli/Erikson but means losing 0.5 from somewhere, and having no LPool players in their good opening fixtures - personally I'm wary of Liverpool attackers (always seem to wrong one), so would prefer Spurs

  5. Alan_T
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    If you had to pick one from each, to keep for the WHOLE season......

    A) Jesus, Lacazette or Kun?
    B) Kane or Lukaku?
    C) KDB or Mane?
    D) Ozil or Hazard?

    1. Waxys
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      B

    2. Abusement Park
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Laca
      Kane
      Mane
      Haz

    3. Jimbo123
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Jesus
      Kane
      Kane
      Ozil

    4. Gomolon
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Aguero
      Kane
      KDB
      Hazard

    5. Danny opare
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      B

    6. Jairzinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      A) Lacazette
      B) Kane
      C) KDB
      D) Hazard

  6. HurriKane
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Why is RLC so popular? Some are even tlking him as a 4th mid

    Is he attacking? Is he nailed on ?

    1. Trigg ⭐️
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      The answer to both is maybe. Wait and see.

    2. Waxys
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Coz he's cheap

    3. Tatty Bojangles
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      No one knows, just presumed as a No. 10 for Palace. It's a wait and see.

    4. I Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      He's attacking but he's far from nailed. One to monitor in preseason. If he looks likely to start he could be a great 4.5 enabler.

      I can't help but feel we're overlooking another 4.5 mid in the same Palace team though. McArthur had 5 goals and 3 assists last season.

      1. HurriKane
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        interesting. cheers all

    5. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      He could be the new Capoue, but he probably won't be.

    6. Alan_T
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      FDB says he's an attacking player, 4.5. Could be a great 5th mid if nailed

      1. HurriKane
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        who does he replace though?

        Townsend Tekkers Zaha
        Mililovic Cabaye Puncheon

        1. Alan_T
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Punch or Cabaye, possibly

        2. I Member
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          This is my concern. Far from guaranteed to displace Cabaye or Puncheon. McArthur is another option in those positions.

  7. john25
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Hey guys, I need a 4.5 fwd for my 352. Any one of them is at least a starter?

    1. Ser Davos
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Get the lowest owned to hopefully avoid a price drop

      1. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        This. That Swansea bloke

        1. Kroosin'
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          He isn't 4.5

          1. DON BE ZILLY
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Tom Carroll

      2. Kroosin'
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Also price drops occurs as change in percentage ownership.

        So a player owned by 1000 users need at least 100 sales to drop. But the one owned by 10 only need a single sale to drop. (Just an example)

  8. SamA
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Any thoughts please?

    Foster, Elliott

    Lindelof, Cedric, Trippier, Lascalles, Mariappa

    KDB, Phillips, Pogba, Alli, Carroll

    Lukaku, Lacazette, Iheanacho

    1. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Avoid Nacho until we know more. Might play second string if he goes to Leicester

    2. Jeremy Corbyn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      iheanacho???

  9. Whats the Mata?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    rep

    A. MAne + Sane + Ramsey + Gayle/Austin + 0.5m (currently have a 4m def)

    OR

    B. Ramsey + Phillips + KDB + Firmino

    1. I Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      B

    2. Waxys
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      I like B better

    3. Whats the Mata?
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      cheers

    4. Dasher0303
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      A

    5. Gomolon
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      B

  10. Ser Davos
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    What do we think of Bailly's BP's potential?

    1. Waxys
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Meh

    2. Alan_T
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Strong

    3. Dr Dream
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Good as long as United's fwds remain a bit thin on goals, not so good if they pep it up a lot....which they might.

    4. UnitedFan
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Relatively strong

    5. Ser Davos
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Thanks all. I suppose the left side of the Utd defence will offer at least one 5.5 option so should be able to avoid. Considering the double up

      1. Ser Davos
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        though, and at 6, I'd want some Bappages

  11. Dr Dream
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    There is a plan B for Palace which may be good for us in FPL..

    If RLC plays CAM then he's obviously a decent and very cheap pick who could turn into something more than decent.

    However...

    If he plays CDM, which he's equally good at, then there's a possibility that FDB may take a shine to Cabaye and finally restore him to the CAM position....(corners, free kicks...blah, blah, blah)

    There's still a tidy player locked in that Cabaye frame somewhere.

    1. Waxys
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      As long as he's a reliable starter for my bench he can play any position tbh

    2. Alan_T
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Only 5.5m as well!

      1. Dr Dream
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        I somehow think he may need his confidence restoring but he'll be far from a lost cause.

    3. The Royal Robin
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Good post.

    4. UnitedFan
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Good thought.

    5. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Shame he's not on pens

      1. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        ... and loves a yellow card

    6. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      And then there is the 5m middle road in Luka who is on penalty duty

  12. Dasher0303
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Out of 10??

    Foster Elliot
    Lindelof Trippier Cedric - Mee Rosenior
    Alli Coutinho Sane Willian RLC
    Lukaku Laca Austin/Gayle(depends on Southampton striker situation)

    I'll be rotating mee/RLC/Gayle most likely.

    1. Puncheon Guly
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      8

  13. Deulofail
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Give me my first HT! How do we predict trends in stats? Are we simply looking to affirm what we want to think, ad hoc?

    In relation to the Plexiplass Principle article by PROKOPTAS: http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2017/07/10/the-plexiglas-principle-the-teams-set-to-improve-in-201718/ (I'm posting here as I'm afraid no-one will reply in the article).

    @PROKOPTAS, GREENWlNDMILL and everyone. I really like the article and it's really piqued my interest in projections as I start to get to grips with the stats area.

    However the whole idea is very strange to me. The "uncorrelated" stats are only looked at between the last two seasons. Yet we all know Leicester's season was the strangest season in a while.

    Whereas if you look at GW's table below, and role back the years, you can actually see that the top teams usually have the top conversion rates. http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/my-stats-tables/view/19269/

    I think it would be a mistake to assume that the Plexiglass Principle is applicable to conversion rates in the Premier League on the basis of this non-correlation alone. Do you really believe that the top 6 teams for conversion rates last season (CHE, ARS, TOT, MCI, EVE, LIV) will have have a decreased conversion rate on average? My guess is that this is relatively stable: it will go up and down each year, but the best teams are usually at the top, just like for 'goals scored', and 'games won'.

    In fact, is there any other evidence that the Plexiglass effect is actually at work in football at all? I'm no expert, but I truly wonder whether it is only applicable to MLS (to some degree) and draft systems, and only for specific statistics, which you would need to test first. I feel like this represents our urge to jump on some secret formula that simplifies the decision-making process, and give us an edge over others with a nice, neat, though probably mythic story about how stats work.

    Likewise, the definition of over- and under-performing in the article seems to be conflated into the comparison of performance with the mean AND by comparision with "expectations". However, these concepts are far from the same, and I'm not sure by what measure our expectations can be quantified, nor what the definition of expectations is either. In this way, we are conflating the principle of conversion with the mean and how good we think a team (or player) should do, which is a mistake.

    Which brings me to the final point that this principle applies to the team. As I said to Giigs Boson, the starting XI and positions and all sorts of things are variable, whereas the team name, 'Arsenal' is not (hense the "non-correlation". If I was in that team and never scored goals, Arsenal's conversion rates would go up and down each season, but my conversion rate would stay on 0. So the question is, how can we use this to predict individual performances. Surely if the team is expected to do better, then so is the player. But if a player has low stats, there is no basis to assume he is going to improve (without the application of team stats, other stats, and the eye test!).

    If anyone could give us any more insight into this, it would be much appreciated. PROKOPTAS, what do you think? I'm genuinely interested, and I might be very wrong, so I certainly don't mean any offence by questioning the article. However I do value scepticism, criticism and discussion. There's more discussion on stats and trends with Doosra and Giggs Boson here, if anyone is bored and interested. http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2017/07/15/scout-notes-pre-season-3/?hc_page=7#hc_comment_15873024

    I have to play Star Wasrs Episode 1 on the PS1 with my nephew now, so I'll check back here before my BBQ! 😀 I hope people reply!

    1. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Mods, please don't Hulk a post that mentions Star Wars Episode 1.

      1. Deulofail
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Just played Crash Bash in the end. Interesting thoughts about stats though, cheers!

        1. Forza
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Crash Bash is a great game! Sorry, I'm too lazy to read long posts.

    2. Waxys
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Very difficult

      1. Deulofail
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        The only relevant comment. Thanks.

    3. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Stop fishing. Tl;dr

      1. Deulofail
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        It's strange that people value articles and community articles, simply absorbing them and thanking the writers, even discussing the topics in some depth, but at the same time many (even some of the same people) despise long comments or discussion from anyone outside of a select group of people.

        Tl;dr? Fine. What's the point in your comment, except to discourage enthusiam and discussion, which is what this site is about, and integral to the success of the site and of our FPL teams.

      2. Daaf
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        I have seen you post this a few times today so let's give it a go. So many question though and your story kind of confuses me. I think it would be much more easy to understand if we were just talking about regression to the mean, which is basically what the plexiglass principle entails if I understand correctly.

        The problem with football is the small sample sizes of events, just compare the scorelines of two random football and basketball games and you understand what I'm talking about. This leads to high variation, and makes it's hard to draw conclusions about a players finishing ability and the plexiglass-effect we're talking about. So when a players hit's a conversion rate of 90% in a season, which is unrealistically high, offcourse we would assume regression to the mean next season. The problem is when the difference is much smaller, say from 5% to 9%, or from 18% to 10%. That's why Doosra told you shots on target is the best measure we have right now, that's the best we can do for now regarding stats.

        Regarding the best teams always coming out on top:
        They have better players, therefore create better chances and also have better players who finish these better chances more regulary. Leicester was an outlier, which was great, but won't happen again anytime soon. If ever. Sorry!

        Let's mention some players to make it more concrete. Pogba missed quite a few shots and hit the crossbar on several occasions. Was he unlucky? Yeah, I think so. Why? Because of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmLMRuD7Mlc

        Do we know he will do better? No, he hits low probability shots so he might do it all over again.

        Ramsey is another one. Some of us expect him to do well, new formation and all and I would love it, but the stat guys disagree. Statsbomb did an article about Arsenal, i'll give you the quote:"I like Ramsey. I also have strong criticisms of Ramsey that I think are valid. These two viewpoints can exist at the same time. Aaron Ramsey is an excellent attacking passer. He is also great at getting himself into good shooting positions.

        The problem? He can’t finish."

        After several years of comparing expected goals model to actual output, we can make sense about someone finishing ability. Ramsey's doesn't look good. Maybe he feels more at home at CM, and the new system suits him which will make him more confident or calm and therefore a better finisher, i don't know. Maybe he will get better chances, and therefore will score more goals. But the stats don't look too good.

        Hope you found some usefull info or knowledge, and be sure to check out statsbomb, great site!

        1. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Thanks for your earnest response. I've bookmarked Statsbomb and I'll be sure to check it out soon.

          This was the first time i posted this to be honest. My other posts had different points and weren't specifically about the article. I did however repost this on the article before I realised you responded. I can see a few people commenting there that I see eye to eye with.

          I would argue that if someone reaches 90% conversion rate, then the sample size is too small (as you say). But crucially, if the sample size isn't too small, why expect a regression to the mean of all players from seasons gone by, or all players from within the same team? The plexiglas model is built for individual stats. (Again see quite a few comments on the article).

          Regarding the best teams always coming out on top:
          Your point is my point. Although I would argue that this is why the plexiglas principle is ineffective at the level of the team. The team isn't stable enoough between seasons due to aging, personel change, financial issues, relationships etc etc. Those things would need to be factored into a model to create an "expected" paradigm of statistics. But even then the relationhip between team performance and individual performance isn't absolute.

          Thanks a lot for your reply though. I'll certainly read it again to help me digest the information and help me re-evaluate my position.

          1. Daaf
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            I don't know why we would expect a regression to the mean if the sample size is big enough. The problem is that the sample size is not big enough and will probably will remain too small. When it does get big enough, or something approaching that, the effects you talk about (aging, changing teams, managers also) start to kick in and might mess up the data since it would take multiple season to collect those and players become slower, physically stronger/ heavier or more injury prone.

            Case in point: Ronaldo took like 5-6 shots a game, for multiple seasons. With cumulative data like that we would approach a big enough sample size, but still it would be on the small side. The thing is that Ronaldo was so far above the rest, we could all see he was great. It would still be interesting and valuable, but probably everyone would have him on FPL (or Spanish FPL for that matter, it probably exists). The biggest problem though is that nobody (literally!!) puts out data like he did (or still does, to be honest).

            The thing that I was trying to make clear with the 90% btw is that it is unsustainable, and that everybody would understand this fact without having a stats degree or something like that. And with a big enough sample size the whole world would go mad because that footballer would be better than Messi * Ronaldo.

            1. Deulofail
              • 8 Years
              6 years, 9 months ago

              Yeah but it's the principle rather than the example that matters. 90% may be unsustanable, but what perceptage is sustainable? If someone take 100 shots in a season, and scores 30. Should that be ignored because it's very good?

              Besides, it's not really about that, it's about the principle of whether the principle works. Employing common sense is useless in gaining an advantage (well... it may be a slight advantage! Haha). If Eriksen is underperforming, how do I know by looking at the team stats? I have to employ common sense and watch him, which makes the principle useless unless we compare him at the level of the individual.

              I hope that makes sense. I'm in a rush to get to a BBQ, so sorry it's it's ridiculous.

              1. Daaf
                • 8 Years
                6 years, 9 months ago

                Haha, it fine. Enjoy your BBQ!

                To answer your first question, no 30 out of a 100 sounds really good. I'm no expert on goal conversion, but Lacazette had 38.9% last year, that was the best of 20+ strikers, with Werner (34.3%) and Falcao (33.9%) not far behind.

                How would you know whether a team is underperforming? Good question. It mostly depends on how you want to play FPL. Do you want to make decisions yourself, or follow the stats, or a combination in which common sense / gut feeling plays a role? Do you want to own players you like, or of a team you support? It a probability game really, but math plays a huge part too since there are many ways to assemble a team, and luck plays a big part so I would just try to have some fun while trying to get wiser and learn something along the way.

                1. Daaf
                  • 8 Years
                  6 years, 9 months ago

                  Haha, I see I drifted off quite a bit. Underperforminc teams usually create chances, or defend well but don't get the results that go with those (clean sheets, goals). You can then look at indidual errors to see if someone screws up, both on tv and via stats, and judge accordingly. Interpretation plays a huge part in data and will continue to do so for a while, don't be afraid to make mistakes, we all do. Models can also be wrong, no model is perfect. I'll stop now because we're not gonna solve this thing tonight, or anytime soon I might add.

                  1. Deulofail
                    • 8 Years
                    6 years, 9 months ago

                    Thanks for your reply. It seems like the answer is to watch football, and make decisions based on what you see.

                    However, I've sign up for membership with enough time to find something that will end up being useful for me, I'm sure! Maybe the expected points stats will end up being a revelation...

    4. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Disheartening response

      1. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        The main take I got from the article concerned neither choosing certain players nor certain teams. The main take concerned positions. The analysis did seem to highlight to value of defenders and prompted me to spend big on 5 at the back.

        The template has always involved cheap defences and 3 at the back, usually in a 343; this time there is more discussion about 2 top strikers and 442s, but almost no one is considering a defence of 5.

        So do you think there is any mileage in considering spending bigger on defence, or do you think he's got his analysis wrong there too?

        1. Daaf
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          As long as you have reliable captain option(s) a five man defence can work greatly.

        2. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          I think your question is quite irrelevant to the Plexiglass Princliple haha! But I'd love to talk about it regardless.

          I'm currently on 4 at the back, and I may switch to 5. But it depends soley on the individual players, and has nothing to do with any philosophy about formations. E.g., questions like, "will RLC + Mane + KDB outscore Salah + Eriksen + Bertrand?"

          I'm not claiming the article is 100% incorrect. On the contrary, if you use common sense/opinion you might agree that Southampton underperformed last season, which makes them underpriced this season. But to say that they will do well simply because they did badly (on whichever metric you choose), seems to be a mistake, in my eyes.

          However, I may well go with 2 Saints fullbacks again to take advantage of their value during good fixtures, as I did last season, although last season it failed dramatically,

  14. UnitedFan
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Thoughts?

    Foster
    Bailly - Toby - Cedric - Kolasinac
    Eriksen - Pogba - Sane - Zaha
    Lukaku - Lacazette

    Myhill - Francis - Romeu - 4.5 fodder striker

    1. SamA
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Good team.
      Curious to know, why did you pick Bailly over Lindelof?

      1. UnitedFan
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks. Looking long term, Bailly is less likely to be rotated than Lindelif around fixture congestion imo. Want to set and forget him and spend as little transfers in defence as possible. He also offers bonus potential.

    2. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Bailly to Lindelof
      Willian over Pogba
      Trippier over Toby
      Use that 2 million to do Laca to Kane

      1. HurriKane
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        This

      2. UnitedFan
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Haha I actually disagree with all of that but thanks 🙂

    3. The Royal Robin
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Is Kolasinac nailed?

      1. UnitedFan
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Yes.

    4. I Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Nice team.

      1. UnitedFan
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks.

  15. nkhoughton
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Best Liverpool mid?

    Thinking Coutiniho but not sure mane and salah will be further forward

    1. Puncheon Guly
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Mane

    2. Dr Dream
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      I think Coutinho and Eriksen will be playing the same game for their respective clubs. Good safe picks who'll be in the thick of it for FPL pts without being the top goal scoters.

      You can add Ozil to that list as well...

    3. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      All three are great options

    4. bojack
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      I'd like Mané but like last season when I had to settle for Firmino, he's just out of my price range.

    5. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Hoping Salah

  16. Areid13
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    RMT

    Foster (Myhill)
    Lindelof Trippier Cedric Francis (Rosenior)
    Alli Pogba Pedro (RLC Carroll)
    Kane Lukaku Benteke

    0.5 itb too

    1. nkhoughton
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      7/10

    2. Big Fella
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Not sure about Pogba and watch Trippier situation

      1. Areid13
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        If man u dont sign a cdm then i'll sell pogba and obviously if spurs get another right back then trippier will go too

  17. 007 [RoboKlopp]
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Hi please RMT:

    Foster, Trippier, Lindelof, Cedric Alli, KdB, Pogba, Willian
    Lukaku, Laca/de Jesus, Gayle

    Elliot, RLC, Rosenior, Hunemeier

    Will appreciate thoughts, thx you.

    1. WorldCupDanB
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Will any of your bench start?

      1. 007 [RoboKlopp]
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Yes, I don't expect too much on bench but try to max value of starting 11.

  18. WorldCupDanB
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    A) Valencia and Gayle

    or

    B) McAuley and Defoe

    1. Big Fella
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      A
      Mcauley 38 yo

    2. UnitedFan
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      B with Dawson instead of McAuley

      1. WorldCupDanB
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Yeh I am undecided between Dawson/McAuley

  19. Waxys
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xkky0mmayj8

    What the heck I've been convinced to keep Pogba on my team now

    1. Dr Dream
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Pogba feels very right this year to me....

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Pogba = fools gold.

        1. Dr Dream
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Could be but just the Lukaku/Pogba thing will make for good viewing...and that matters to me..

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Pogba scored fewer points than Mirallas, Townsend and Snodgrass despite playing more minutes last season

  20. The Royal Robin
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    My 2 favourite drafts, one without a triple premium attack, and one with a double up. Which one do you like, a or b?

    A) Foster - Myhill / Cedric - Lindelof - Ake - Dunk - Mee / Redmond - Sane - Salah - Willian - Zaha / Lukaku - Kane - Wells

    B) Foster - Myhill / Cedric Lindelof DUNK Mee RANGEL / Redmond - Sane - Zaha Willian LC / LACAZETTE - Lukaku - Kane

  21. EmreCan Hustle
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Thoughts on this?

    3-4-3

    Foster Fabianski
    Trippier Cedric Lindelof Clark Rangel
    Sanchez Lanzini Tadic Mooy RLC
    Kane Aguero Gayle

    Noting itb.

    Thanks.

    1. EmreCan Hustle
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Cedric is actually Bertrand, sorry.

    2. Areid13
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      mids are terribly weak

      1. EmreCan Hustle
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Any suggestions?

        1. Areid13
          • 10 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          downgrade either sanchez or kun to upgrade lanzini who i think is a risk or upgrade Mooy if you like Lanzini

  22. Whats the Mata?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Foster - Elliot
    Trippier/Lindelof - Cedric - Dawson - 4.5 - 4.0
    KDB - Ramsey - Willian - Phillips - RLC
    Kane - Lukaku - Firmino

    How does it look?
    Any thoughts regarding changes appreciated 🙂

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Firmino was frustrating to own last season and now gets a point fewer for goals and no clean sheets. Go for Benteke or Defoe instead

      1. DON BE ZILLY
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Firmino's the central figure of a Liverpool attack with three proven goalscorers around him, who last year had a habit of propping up Coutinho. Everything will be coming him this year.

        1. DON BE ZILLY
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          through him*

  23. EmreCan Hustle
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Berahino goal vs Monaco.

  24. jdogg
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    1st attempt

    Foster elliot

    Trippier cedric johnson simpson holgate

    Pogba willian tadic ramsey rlc

    Kane lukaku jesus?

    Any takers?x

  25. nobwak
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    A) Lacazette, Lanzini, Pogba, Tadic
    B) Jesus, Ramsey, Pogba, Tadic
    C) Lacazette, Lanzini, Sane, Knockaert/Ritchie

    1. jdogg
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      B.x

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      C

  26. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Surely we all need a Southampton and WBA Att or Mid, their fixtures are great. Who if anyone are you going for?

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Might consider Austin if fit

    2. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Might go with Tadic or Austin but no WBA.

      1. Whats the Mata?
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        why?

        1. Wild Rover
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Because WBA and attack don't belong together. Much better options in the price range

          1. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
            • 10 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            WR knows!

          2. Whats the Mata?
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Like? Tell me better options at 6m?
            Besides, lemme tell you, in the first part of the season like last season wba are attcaking plus the good fixtures help the cause...Phillips on set pieces too

            1. Wild Rover
              • 13 Years
              6 years, 9 months ago

              Fraser 5.5

    3. Dr Dream
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      I find it really hard to pick a Pulis player....and somehow Soton have never rocked my boat either.

      So none for me but surely it's Philips and Tadic (depending on status).

      JWP might be a dark horse...

    4. Reuser
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Phillips (6.0) as my 4th midfielder.

      Otherwise, just defenders (Dawson and Cedric). Keeping an eye on JWP during pre-season though.....

    5. Black Panther
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      I'm going for Tadic or Phillips as 4th mid, they look safer than the forwards as it stands.

    6. UnitedFan
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      No. 🙂

    7. Freshy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      McCauley, Dawson = WBA attack
      Tadic

    8. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Yeh I am thinking Phillips and Redmond, I also like JRod. Tadic over Redmond? Why?

    9. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      How many goals did Southampton score, last Season?

  27. ihateramsey2
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Is Berahino back on peoples radar now?

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      back on?

    2. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Did he leave? Other then for a smoke...

    3. Dr Dream
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      ?...

      I'd sooner stab myself in the eye than pick him.

      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        😆

        Wakey, go carefully with Pogba. Stats are not encouraging. 🙂

    4. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      He is a bit like sewing a cow's udder to your cheek - painful and unnecessary.

  28. nobwak
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Pick this apart, it's my favourite yet I think.

    Hennessy, Elliot
    Dawson, Lindelof, Cedric, Tedlin, 4.0
    Ramsey, Tadic, Willian, Pogba, RLC
    Lukaku, Kane, Jesus

    1. jdogg
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Exact same mid and forwards as me a few posts up.slightly diff defence.i like it.x

    2. Brutus619
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Incredible frontline. Midfield is very weak though.

      I would downgrade Lindelof so that you can upgrade Willian to an £8m like Sane.

  29. Brutus619
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Hey all.

    First stab at a team for the new season. Thoughts?

    Forster. £4m

    Cedric. Naughton. Morgan. Francis. Johnson.

    Sanchez. Alli. Ayew. Stanislas. RLC.

    Lukaku. Jesus. Gabbiadini.

    KDB + Kane over Sanchez + Jesus?

    Any advice on better £4.5 DEFs would be appreciated.

  30. reason17
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Hi, I'd love some opinions on how to improve my team:

    Foster - Myhill
    David Luiz - Lindelof - Cedric - B Mee - Francis
    De bruyne - Alli - Tadic - Knockaert - RL Cheek
    Lukaku - Lacazette - Gayle

    1.0 ITB

    Knockaert to ramsey perhaps? any ideasat all will help 🙂