Community

Emotion vs Algorithms

With the pre-season at the halfway point and with another bout of weekend friendlies to come, most Fantasy managers will be starting to whittle down the targets for their squads.

As I get closer to making my own decisions, the complexity of player projections versus emotion really kick in, and human nature and personal biases come into play. Should I pick player X because I like his price. Should I follow a gut-feeling about player Y’s season or should I choose player Z because he has never let me down.

I feel lucky that I’m not emotionally invested in a particular Premier League team as that often introduces further potentially blinding elements into the mix. Often we can be drawn to our own team’s players or worse still, miss out on points because we cannot stand to pick a player from a rival club.

Once I’ve refined my list of potential picks, I like to start to tinker with the Rate My Team projections feature, if only to verify my current thinking and balance the emotions at play.

Of course, the team at Fantasy Football Scout have never claimed the Rate My Team feature is accurate to a stated percentage and are clear that it is a guide.

But that doesn’t stop me and I’m sure others from wondering if we can squeeze another 0.5 from somewhere to help us upgrade on a player – ideally one we’re not emotionally invested in. This is where the tinkering begins and, if you are not careful, never stops.

It provides a wonderful outlook on providing your team with the best possible start because, even if you are Wildcarding early, the opening Gameweeks are so vital. Whether you play safe with known entities, or try to head off the high ownership players in a damage control tactic, the focus is on strong early-season scoring.

But Rate My Team makes it too easy to tinker, especially when used together with the Season Ticker.

I’m finding that the formation debate is particularly interesting this season. Is four or even five at the back an option, especially if you don’t believe there is huge value in the mid-priced midfield bracket? The Rate My Team tool certainly hints at the possibilities.

But when do you stop?

I’ve spent hours trying to find the team I’m most comfortable with which has the best projections in multiple formations. And, for the purposes of this article, I’ve then compared it against the most-picked players that create a valid squad according to FPL rules.

Foster, De Gea
Lindelof, Luiz, Trippier, Daniels, Rangel
Alli, Coutinho, Kante, Loftus-Cheek, McArthur
Lukaku, Kane, Rooney

Members can load and view this team by clicking here.

This template squad gives a projection score of 334.1 over the first six Gameweeks.

For those who don’t use the feature, the score projection is based upon an algorithm that FFS apply to determine the best starting XI for each week and applies double points to what it thinks is the best captain pick.

But the template team can be beaten with a three, four or even five-man defensive set-up by at least ten points. The highest set-up I’ve achieved is just over 346 points. I’ve also found teams I personally feel more emotionally at ease with, but who score fewer points than other options.

Has anyone achieved better, keeping to the rules?

Ignoring the rules to try to set some sort of benchmark by picking the 15 players with the highest six-Gameweek projections gives a projected score of 399.87 over that period. But it’s also a massive 26.5m over budget.

So, for now, I have my starting point. It’s a team that scores just over 340 points, offers me a good balance and allows for a change of formation and personnel.

The $64,000 question is of course, how much should we trust our own emotional decisions over a mathematical algorithm and what is the perfect balance?

65 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    my record was over 350 but I hated it. have just reproduced something similar

    foster (eliot)
    valencia - bertrand - tripper - cedric (4.0)
    fabregas - willian - alli - pogba (4.5)
    morata - kane - gayle

    it definitely rewards big defence more than the game itself.

    1. Baines on Toast...
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      350.64 with Hunemeier and Mesa as the cheapies.

      1. Baines on Toast...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        up to 351.22 by doing morata > lukaku and valencia > yoshida; triple soton defence all the way.

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 8 months ago

          PS. I never use RMT. 😉

    2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      I just want to thank you for your squad builder. It's brilliant. 😀

      Please, one day would you teach me more about those VLOOKUP formulas?

      1. Baines on Toast...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        you're welcome mate, I enjoyed building it and it was great to see people using it. I have a few more ideas of things along those lines but with better data imports etc.

        here's a quick rundown on how one of the ones in the table works - the club selection for a defender:

        =VLOOKUP(D6,Defenders!$A$2:$C$104,3,FALSE)

        D6 = variable to be searched for - the player name. this changes in every cell.

        Defenders! = the name of the sheet to look in (the tabs at the bottom)

        $A$2:$C$104 - Within the Defenders table, this is the range to search in - the full list of players. It begins with A2 (Alonso) and takes in all names and clubs until the very bottom of the list (which is only 63 players long so 104 is just to leave room to flesh it out).

        The dollar signs are used to stop the formula changing when you copy it into another cell, so you can copy the same formula to each Defender slot. If you don't use the dollar sign and just do A2:C104, then when you copy it the range will change, which we don't want. This way, we can copy the same formula to every player slot - all we need is to change the position from Defenders! if we are on a different slot.

        3 - Within the above table range (a2:c104), we are looking in the third column (column C, which is a list of clubs). If you change it to 2, you'll get a player's value instead - which is what you see in the row below.

        FALSE - honestly I don't know fully how this works but I've never had to use True.

        1. Rossaldinho
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 8 months ago

          Hi Baines on Toast - I have just read your post with interest. Doosra referred to your squad builder spreadsheet. Would it be possible to ask for a copy please?

        2. Ice66
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 8 months ago

          Baines On Toast, is there actually an excel file? why are you explaining vlookup function? where can I download the excel file?

          =VLOOKUP( [Value you want to look up], [range where you want to lookup the value], [the column number in the range containing the return value], [Exact Match or Approximate Match – indicated as 0/FALSE or 1/TRUE]).

          note: default is true (i.e. approximate match) if you don't specify anything as the last argument.

        3. Malcolm Tucker for England …
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 8 months ago

          False means it has to be an exact match for the searched for variable. True can return similar variables instead

          1. Malcolm Tucker for England …
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            6 years, 8 months ago

            Also, Baines on Toast, would you mind if i asked Doos to mail a copy over to me?

    3. Feyzi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Hateful indeed, with 3 Chelsea "attackers"

  2. Klopp\'s Angels
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    One spends hours tinkering!!!! To all have it implode and wild carding gw1!

  3. temo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    I am a new member, and just tried RMT. Ended on 337,8. How good is that on a scale from 1-10?

    1. Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Grab the URL on the build my team page and convert it using tiny url and post it here and we can have a look at the team.

  4. Chapanya
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    350,7

    hennessey, foster

    bertrand, trippier, dawson, lascelles, mee

    fabregas, alli, coutinho, ward-prowse, mesa

    lukaku, kane, gayle

  5. Ludo
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    352.23 is the best RMT score I've found:

    Foster (Elliot)
    Trippier - Bertrand - Dawson (Mee - Long)
    Alli - Coutinho - Fabregas - Redmond (Mesa)
    Kane - Lukaku - Gayle

    I think it's a useful tool to consider, but wouldn't put so much faith in it.

    1. Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      It's another contributing view/voice.

      I was asked recently if I feel that a new breed of Fantasy managers, using algorithms and maths will dominate in years to come.

      My answer was no, and that a good Fantasy manager must combine tools and their own intuition and experience. I still stand by that.

      I love stats and tools and wouldn't do without them but would never base my decisions solely on either.

      1. Ludo
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        What I like about RMT is that a player with a strong FPL record and a good fixture will always project well.

        It can be a great counter-balance to bandwagons, which are often guilty of having short memories.

        1. Mark
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 17 Years
          6 years, 8 months ago

          Yes, RMT is a long-term planning tool so short-term form doesn't show up. It's handy for that can often be a great sanity check.

      2. diesel001
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        The thing with stats are they are not well developed enough to fully replace the eyes. It will happen in time though.

    2. Baines on Toast...
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      that is a great looking team to be fair

  6. 6thGoal
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Going 5-3-2, I have scored as high as 340.48 and would in fact be a formation/squad I would start the season with. If I started with a 4-5-1 and the combination of Eriksen/Alli/Kane it boasts a score of 341.07

    1. 6thGoal
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      5-3-2 https://tinyurl.com/y8k5yvxu

  7. Je suis le chat
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    What data feeds into the algorithms? Given WBA got the least no of clean sheets last year I'm surprised they feature in RMTs.

    1. @fpl_phenom
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Why are we all putting in foster again??

  8. Kun Tozser
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Would be good to see guess vs actual over time, there must be some machine learning in there to determine a players potential form and historically how long their streak may last

  9. Beavis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Is there a way for FFS to run a test team with the highest possible starting RMT team and each week make 1 transfer to the highest RMT point opportunity and also base its team selection and (c) on RMT.

    Just to see how it does over the season.

    1. Gomolon
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      I would love to do this - would be a way for all of us to "play against" FFScout and the RMT tool 🙂

  10. KMonst
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    It also does not take into consideration the Wembley factor. Is anyone else thinking Kane might be under par this year, for the price he is at?

    1. @fpl_phenom
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Yep

    2. ste_the_legend
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Not to mention that the past 2 seasons he's had a rather slow start. Kane is too big a risk for me early on.

  11. Waterwheel Inc.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Not sure how many would be willing to start with this, but at 354.06 it's the best I've managed without doing any serious maths . . .

    Foster; Elliott
    Bertrand; Trippier; Cedric; Dawson; Mee
    Sanchez; Willian; Alli; Coutinho; Mesa
    Lukaku; Gayle; Murray

    For what it's worth my own team is currently sitting at 347.55, with a slightly better structure and less doubling up on teams.

    1. YTFC_Scratch
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      The algorithms do definitely seem to ha e a bias to defensive formations. I also wonder but do not know for sure, how much the previous season impacts the week 1-6 numbers. Med is a prime example, which is where emotion comes into play, the question being will a Keanless Burnley be as good at ho,e this season as they were last? If you believe yes then his numbers are can probably be relied upon slightly more, if no, then you are probably not picking him over some other 4.5 options as his underlying stats will have been impacted by having Keane alongside him.

  12. YTFC_Scratch
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    *Mee
    ** Burnley be as good at home

    I would expect the numbers will and should adapt and change once the season gets underway. Would be interesting to see if the numbers become more accurate as the season progresses and to what level and how quickly they change.

  13. The Lighthouse Keeper
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    I managed an RMT 6-week projected score of 354.5 - is there a prize? 🙂

    Foster / Elliot
    Bertrand / Trippier / Cedric / Yoshida / Lascelles
    Sanchez / Fabregas / Willian / Ndidi / Mesa
    Lukaku / Kane / Gayle

    I only have 5 or 6 of those players in my real team though.

    1. PvA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Aha I take it you got bored?

      I have only 5/6 from the too

    2. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      That midfield sure shows up the limitations of algorithms.

    3. Baines on Toast...
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      i've managed 355.2 by doing willian > cout, lukaku > morata and lascelles > hunemeir. pushing it now 😛

      1. Baines on Toast...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        the interesting thing is is once you have sanchez in there, RMT does not think lukaku is worth it, because it doesn't suggest captaining him even once.

  14. Kryten
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Great read keep up the good work

  15. Poli_Talk
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    UCL format cup competition - anyone interested ?

    I have always wanted FPL to bring in a UCL format cup competition; alas, they went with the DRAFT. So, I’m planning to host a UCL format cup tourney, i.e. groups (round robin) & knockout (two legs) – except for the final.
    I am trying to get a gauge of the number of people interested in such a competition.
    Here’s a link where you can nominate yourself.
    If you’re interested please sign up,
    please spread the word to anyone else who’s interested,
    and do up vote it, so others might get to know about it.
    There's no limit on the number of entries.
    Thanks and have a great season !

    Link - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rGzJw5DvzFsWhs0l1n-kqBciLN6jZcumFwC2VuO3krw/edit#gid=0

    1. Meppelfield
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Cool idea! Signed up and upvoted aswell.

  16. Meganburrows
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Thoughts/advice?

    De gea, Elliott
    Cedric, Luiz, Trippier, Mee, Lascelles
    Alli, Pogba, Loftus Cheek, Coutinho, Romeu
    Lukaku, Jesus, Chicha

    1. Boniouk
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      United fan?

  17. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    my RMT record is now 359.12...can anyone top 360?

    Foster / Elliot
    Bertrand / Trippier / Yoshida (Hunemeier, Long)
    Sanchez / Alli / Fabregas / Willian (Mesa)
    Kane / Vardy / Gayle

    1. David
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      360.06

      Foster / Elliot
      Valencia / Bailly / Bertrand / Trippier / Mee
      Sanchez / Alli / Erikson / Fabregas / Mesa
      Vardy / Gayle / Rodriguez

      1. Baines on Toast...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        nice!

    2. Mr_Forest3
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Why does it bench Foster in GWK2 when he is predicted to outscore Elliott?

      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        WBA : BOU 182 bur -62 STK 211
        NEW : TOT -322 hud 98 WHM 87

        1. Mr_Forest3
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 8 months ago

          Sorry, no comprende?

  18. rgilyead
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    De Gea/(Elliott)
    Valencia/Trippier/Cedric/Walker/(Daniels)
    Willian (v)/Coutinho/Townsend/Redmond/(Ndidi)
    Lukaku (c)/Jesus/(Gayle)

    Total RMT 340.14 but more importantly GW1 61.82

    I always try to get above 60 for the next GW since transfers will affect later weeks anyway. Would really like a "future transfers" option to enable better planning. Also a "compare two transfers" option

    1. 6thGoal
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      That's what I have been looking at as well, GW1. Currently scoring 63.86 but not looking any further.

    2. bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      How does your RTM look if you downgrade Ndidi and Gayle to 4.5's, to finance Willian to Alli

      1. rgilyead
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Why would I want to do that? Reduces my GW1 prediction.

  19. Greko82
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Good afternoon,

    Before I post my team could you please advise me which one looks better:
    A) walker + mee
    B) Bertrand+ Cedric

    Thanks

    1. 6thGoal
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      B if Cedric starts, but if he doesn't would put Yoshida in his place.

  20. jakeyviner340
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    RMT please lads... it needs plenty of work tbh

    Foster / Myhill
    Trippier / Lindelof / Aké / Cedric / Mee
    Alli / Coutinho / Willian / RLC / 5.5?
    Lukaku / Kane / Austin

    cheers...was thinking Xhaka?? maybe, haven't heard much from him though

    1. Boniouk
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Xhaka will pick you up a few minus points in red cards over the season most likely. Maybe downgrade Lindelof for a 4.5 replacement like Yedlin, and then a midfielder at 6.5... Tadic maybe? Southampton have good fixtures.

  21. Mr_Forest3
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    362.99 if anybody is still playing?

    1. CoolBeans
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Go on... ☺️

      1. Mr_Forest3
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Sorry, I cheated, was just about to post team but realised I had overspent .5 m

  22. Fergus1107
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    New member here, trying to fathom the RMT but finding it a great help with my 'gut' picks. Tiny URL here for any views; https://tinyurl.com/ydyh5e85

  23. It’s a Knockaert
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    I don't think RMT is a great tool-algorithms have been set and can't think for themselves with all the factors. Coming up with a team yourself is better all the way. I do think RMT does become very useful after the first 6 gameweeks though

  24. Splatter\\\'s Omerta
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    is there some analysis on how accurate the RMT algorthym has been in the past?