Community Submissions

Attack Minded De Bruyne Looks Essential

During Manchester City’s pre-season campaign Kevin De Bruyne has excelled, assisting three times in an advanced midfield role. He looks integral to Pep Guardiola’s style of play and 2017/18 could be a sensational year for the Belgian if he can improve on last season’s impressive tally of 199 Fantasy Premier League points.

This article aims to look in detail at De Bruyne’s statistics and compare how he performed depending on whether he was fielded in an advanced role or not.

I am looking to see how his position in the team really impacts on his game, especially after his performance against Real Madrid this summer, which garnered considerable praise from Guardiola.

He was similarly impressive against Tottenham too, in which he was fielded behind striker Gabriel Jesus and provided an assist.

The Manchester City shape based on pre-season so far is looking like seeing De Bruyne retain an advanced midfield position, with David Silva used in a  free ‘number 8’ role, protected by Fernandinho or Gundogan when he has fully recovered from a long term injury.

Forward Thinking Kevin in 2016/17

Given this I’ve had a look at the times he was fielded the furthest up the pitch to see whether he made an impact then as well.

All Gameweeks – Gameweek 8 (furthest forward positioning)

1.6– 1.3 mins per pass received
3.1 – 5.0 penalty area touches
2.4 – 8 chances
0.9 – 3 chances in box
0.2 – 1 big chances
every 28min – every 22min a chance created
7.6 – 18 crosses

All Gameweeks -Gameweek 15 (second furthest forward positioning)

1.3– 1.5 mins per pass received
3.1– 8.0 penalty area touches
2.4 – 3 chances
0.9 – 2 chances in box
0.2 – 0 big chances
every 28min – every 90 min a chance created
7.6 – 18! crosses

All Gameweeks -Gameweek 11 (third furthest forward positioning)

1.3– 1.8 mins per pass received
3.1– 6.0 penalty area touches
2.4 – 4 chances
0.9 – 1 chances in box
0.2 – 1 big chances
every 28min – every 15 min a chance created
7.6 – 13 crosses

Conclusion

As you can see De Bruyne’s underlying statistics promise for a much higher output when he plays further forward.

However, it is worth pointing out that he only recorded one set of attacking points (an assist in Gameweek 15) during the trio of games covered in this analysis.

If you believe that his impressive underlying statistics can translate into the sort of returns we have witnessed over the summer then there is a powerful argument to include the Belgian in your Gameweek 1 selection.

But if you are a glass half empty sort of manager, who believes he is destined to impress on the eye, but not in terms of Fantasy output, then a cautious approach may be advised.

For me, with City’s strikers not assured of minutes, De Bruyne would seem like an ideal route into a Manchester side that will be expected to score a host of goals next season, especially with the Belgian utilised in an advanced midfield role.

66 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    CErtainly impressive in terms of underlying stats - even though his output was limited.

    I'm a glass half full kinda guy and agree with you that KDB should excel in a forward role.

    Thanks for submitting.

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Thx Jonty,
      one of the games was the 4-2 loss vs Leicester where they had to play catch-up for the most part of the game. Let's see where he plays.
      But he's certainly a high floor, high ceiling option.

  2. Boris Bodega
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Food for thought, he has been in and out of my team for ages.

  3. Boniouk
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Does your opinion of KDB change if City sign Alexis Sanchez?

    I currently have De Bruyne, but if Sanchez arrives, i'd probably take him out as I think Sanchez would take a lot of his points.

  4. Siggy in the Middle
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Very good article. This cements his place in my team.

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Thx a lot.

  5. Prokoptas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Thank you for the submission! Got a couple of minor questions -

    Firstly, your baseline performance data is fluctuating: in your first analysis, you use 1.6 mins per pass received, but 1.3 mins in later analyses. Is this a formatting issue, in which the numbers in your first row have been accidentally switched?

    Secondly, have you removed the weeks in question from your 'all weeks' dataset? For example, in your analysis of week 8, your 'all weeks' data should only includes weeks 1-7 and 9-38 to prevent a double-counting error wherein you are including your datapoint of interest in your baseline data.

    Thirdly, were you able to remove chances that were created by non-positioning factors (such as dead-ball situations)? If the gameweeks in which he was creating most chances were also those in which he had the most dead-ball situations, I would argue that this variable is more critical than the formation implemented by Pep that afternoon.

    I'm a little suspicous about the noise in this dataset, but small sample extrapolations always make me wary. Nonetheless, I think it's an interesting point to flag up for future analyses, though - it'll be interesting to see how Pep lines up come GW1.

    Thanks again!

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Thx for your interest and time:
      1) yes, a formating problem. It's 1.6, not 1.3.
      2) no, I didn't take out the other weeks. I compared all of De Bruyne vs one week of De Bruyne. I feel that it wasn't deep vs high up positioning but average (he sometimes played high up..that should be in) positioning until now and his potential future positioning.
      3) no, I didn't remove the fks and corners. I just looked at the 3games, when he played furthest forward and got this. It's not clinical but it's funny that although I didn't have any idea about the results, or no memory of the GWs, that the differences in stats were so high.

  6. El Lobito 10
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    The problem is who to leave out between him, Sanchez and a Liverpool mid.

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      I say Pool if Coutinhos future isn't sorted. Cout is important for Mane too. Such a good player..

  7. Pompel
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Another good argument for going with KDB is, he's an easy swap for Hazard should he fail to deliver (keep extra £0.5 in case)

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      The extra will come up in time when we switch from Willian to Stanislas after two weeks fe

  8. Parm
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    I'm pretty skeptical of de Bruyne, massive fan of him as a player but with Aguero and Jesus both fit how much opportunity does de Bruyne have in the #10 role?
    His goalscoring prospects take a nosedive if he isn't in the goalscoring situations that playing as a #10 offer, no doubt his set-pieces and creativity will net him another 15+ assist season but if he can't improve his goal output I can't see a £10.0m asset when compared to Alli/Mané/Hazard who have 15 goals a season as a mere baseline.

    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      + 42.

    2. Cok3y5murf
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Goals or assists, it doesn't matter. Only the points do.

      1. Ludo
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Exactly. Midfielders get 5 points and 18 BPS for a goal, compared to 3 points and 9 BPS for an assist.

        1. Cok3y5murf
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Not sure if you're disagreeing with me, but I was referring to OP saying he's not worth 10m if he can't improve his goal output, when compared to Alli/Mane/Hazard who score at least 15 goals.

          For example, Alli scored 10 goals more than Eriksen and still ended up with the same PPM as Eriksen. So it doesn't make a difference. If De Bruyne doesn't score enough for 10m, he has to compensate it by assisting a lot more. He can still make up the points, which is the only thing that matters.

          1. Ludo
            • 10 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Sorry - of course, if he can make up the points through enough assists and bonus points (assisters tend to do much better than goalscorers in terms of baseline bonus), then it doesn't matter. I thought you were saying assists give as many points as goals do.

      2. Dr. Agabuse
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        This

    3. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      I feel that his assists are his floor and his goalscoring will only improve in a no10 role. Also I heard, he hit the post 8times last season?
      The numbers would suggest that he shoots far more often in an advanced role..and we all know that he can shoot..

    4. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      no offense but why would you write, "if he cant improve his goalOutput" when this article and these stats would suggest, that he will now?!
      I'm not even trying to convince anyone, I just thought, I had to share these results...

  9. Ludo
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    I'm not sure how different his position really is with this shape, and whilst they'll use three at the back more often, the only certainty is that Pep will chop and change things, and KDB will still see plenty of game time in last season's role.

    My problem with KDB is the quality of the alternatives. He's a great option, but I think there is probably better value to be had elsewhere.

    He averaged 5.5 points per game last season, which is very good, but Alli and Eriksen are 0.5 cheaper and averaged 6.1 PPG, as is Mane, who averaged 5.8, and Coutinho also averaged 5.5 PPG, but costs a full million less.

    If your response is that KDB provides an advantage over those players in the form of City 'coverage', then I would point to Jesus at 6.7 PPG, costing only 0.5 more. He seems just as nailed on as KDB (which is to say, as safe as anyone can be under Pep). You might think he can't maintain last season's form, but as the first choice striker for the best attacking team in the league, possibly even with penalties, I'd bank on him to continue outscoring De Bruyne, for only a slightly higher price.

    You might say that Kane, Lukaku and Jesus is far too much to invest in forwards, but again, it's only 0.5 more than Kane, Lukaku and De Bruyne. The quality of options at 5.5-7.0 in midfield look much better than the forwards of the same price, particularly with Austin, Gabbiadini and Gayle seeming like uncertain starters, and Chicharito starting with a series of away fixtures, following not much of a pre-season.

    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Thanks, Ludo, excellent round-up of my thoughts, perfectly expressed. 😉

      What's your take on Alexander-Arnold?

      1. Ludo
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Good option at 4.5 - the obvious question is how long Clyne is expected to be out for. I'm not sure what the answer is, but if it's going to be a few gameweeks, he's certainly tempting. If it's just one or two, perhaps not.

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Yeah. I think I am going to bet on him. I hope to get to the international break, then swap with Dummett.

      2. Pieterke30
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        "Excellent round of your thoughts"... haven't seen you posting any team with Kane Kaku Jesus up top.

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          I don't think that you have understood the point of the post. 🙂

      3. Geoff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        I agree too but I'm struggling to justify any high-priced midfielders. How many (and who) are you looking at Doosra?

    2. Prokoptas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      I agree wholeheartedly with this idea. I'm currently on a Kane - Lukaku - Jesus frontline myself, and while it does necessitate shopping around for cheaper options in midfield, I prefer the likes of Zaha, Willian, etc. at 7.0 to the strikers in the same bracket. I suppose the possible fly in the ointment here is team flexibility, but I'm less concerned about that in a pre-WC squad just because I know I can blow things up at any time.

    3. Gnu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      That's my take on it Ludo.
      I really would like a Citeh midfielder for the off but may just have to wait -I was on Sane but getting cold feet.
      My conundrum at moment is Liverpool, I'm a fan of Firmino when it comes to FPL but Mane is looking irrestible so do I go with both or surrender one, Hmmm.

      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        No Lukaku, hmmm? 😀

        1. Gnu
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Nope, it's no Kane. 😉

    4. Cok3y5murf
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      He only seems expensive if you imagine keeping him the whole season VS keeping Alli/Eriksen/Mane/Coutinho the whole season. But in this game, we don't keep most of the players the whole season. We keep them while they're in form and the fixtures are favorable, and then move on to another option. So PPG is quite irrelevant. De Bruyne is only a good option for now, while he is in-form from pre-season, in a strong City side, with favorable fixtures.

      I do agree about Jesus though. Have them both at the moment.

    5. Papilo
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      I'd go with KDB.
      1. To me, KDB seems the only player sure to start for City, given their current squad.
      2. Last season was fairly underwhelming for KDB, and he still scored 199 points.
      3. Jesus had a flying start to his City career, and I agree the upside could be huge, but I'm not so sure he'll have no dip in form at all.
      4. I do think between Jesus and Aguero we'll see a lot of goals, but really unsure who scores how many. KDB should benefit in terms of assists, unless Silva reclaims his role as #1 creator.
      5. Having > 35m locked up in attack really reduces your transfer flexibility in other areas.

    6. FPL Kangaroo
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Luk/Jesus/Kane our my front 3 😉

      1. FPL Kangaroo
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Plus KDB 😉

    7. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      My worry is Jesus' gametime with him and Sterling, Sane, Aguero vying for two places in this formation.
      Yes I believe he has an advantage and will start but if he doesn't score or play well for a game or two, I'm not so sure about his starting chances. I want nailed on and I'm interested in underlying stats. PPG isn't underlying, it isn't a projection. It's what we had and if you compare Jesus to others, he might be the Vardy of the year before. His numbers aren't easily to replicate. He had a giant conversion rate. I compared Aguero and Jesus for the last 4games and Aguero had so many more chances and touches in the box, that I think, once he hits form, Jesus might be, what we thought in the first place. His sub. His Ihenacho 🙂

    8. Geoff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Great post. Which high-priced midfielders are you looking to Ludo?

      1. Ludo
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Alli and Salah are the two I like most at the moment. Sanchez is the curveball that could change everything.

    9. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Boom

    10. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      I have both conundrums solved I have kdb and I do not need a 5.5 -7.0 striker because I have an 8.0m one defoe!

      Sometimes people can be guilty of overthinking things!

  10. AJ24
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    RMT please

    Foster
    Trippier, Cedric, Lindelof
    Willian, Alli, Pogba, Mane
    Lukaku, Austin, Jesus

    Myhill, T Carroll, Manquillo, Rangell

    0.0ITB

    Please be brutal and rip it apart..

    1. Teror
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Logically, this is about as safe of a bet as you can get before the season starts. Bench is v weak, and with Lindelof and Cedric not nailed you might want to rethink them but generally a solid team

    2. wolvesmad
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      No pre season for Cedric with doubts over Austin and Jesus to start some weeks. Would go for Miki over Pogba too maybe?

  11. 007 [RoboKlopp]
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Please choose which one is better:

    A. De Gea + Milivojevic + 1.0m
    B. Foster + Zaha

    Thx you.

    1. wolvesmad
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      B.

  12. jessicoyne
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    RMT please

    GK: De Gea (5.5) Foster (4.5)

    Def: Trippier (5.5) Cedric (5) Alonso (7) Dawson (5) Mee (4.5)

    Mid: Salah (9) De Bruyne (10) Eriksen (9.5) Willian (7) Ward-Prowse (5.5)

    Fwd: Lukaku (11.5) Rodriguez (6) Quaner (4.5)

  13. shirtless
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    I was all set on Sane, but this has changed. Currently don't have Lukaku either so I'm considering;

    Sane, Jesus, Firmino > KdB, Lukaku, 6.5m.

    This leaves me no Liverpool action though. 🙁

  14. SPFC
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    By 10.0 I want a player who can deliver the armband. I do not have enough confidence in KDB for this, unlike Jesus.

    Last season, Jesus just did not play because of an injury. With an excellent goal average per minute and the possibility of spreading my money elsewhere, I intend to have the Brazilian as my City coverage.

  15. Dr.S
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Final squad and ready for battle. Please RMT, would be honored.

    Dgea (Elliot) Azpilicu Bertrand Hegazi
    William pogba Kdb zaha
    Lukaku Jesus Rodriguez
    (Carol, Ake, Suttner) Cheers:)

  16. Dr. Agabuse
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    I thank you for all the answers
    and if you feel that the positional change will not happen, then that's fair play and if you think the sample size is too litlle that's okay too but
    I can't understand, how you would write smth like he doesn't shoot enough to score goals when the whole article is based on the giant improvement of his shooting stats, as he plays further forward.
    5.5 or 6.6 or 7.5 whatever. I wrote about the potential CHANGE that will happen to him. His 10.0 mill is for this season, not for last.
    If he's going to manage 5.5 again, I'll obviously advise against.
    The idea here is, that his PPG will improve..

  17. Dr. Agabuse
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    an average 9 to 19 touches in the box in 3 games.
    an average 7 to 15 shots in 3 games.
    If he keeps these stats (as in, if he keeps playing in an advanced role), he'll be scoring twice as much in an ideal statistical scenario.
    no 5.5 ppG anymore..

  18. Bedknobs and Boomsticks
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Why does 3 assists in peeseason make De Bruyne essential, but 3 assists and a peno for Firmino get no notice?

    Just sayin 😉

    1. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Ince has scored four goals, and he hasn't had much attention either.

  19. kyyle_butler
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Went with Alli and Kane pair. Wanted to get mid from other top 4. Ozil and De bruyne were the choice. Went with De-bruyne as fixtures look good.
    Join league - 441055-438178 and prove Kyyle innocent. Open for everyone.

  20. nelluckram
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    How many will we get out of Danilo? 3?

  21. Poch.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Pre season never a great guide, Yaya or J or Ag gets the pens, b.silva is v good and might start to threaten him (or Sterling) after 2wks, I'm new to this but I don't see the value at 10.0

  22. Poch.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Surely bigger q is whether there is value in Yaya or Gund....

    1. UnitedWeStand
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      With the reinforcements brought in I doubt Yaya will feature much and not sure if Gündogan has had any gametime in pre-season or not but would hold off on both.

  23. cuppatea78
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Who would you go with?:

    A) Alli, JRod
    B) Salah, Austin
    C) Salah, JRod (£0.5 in the bank)

    1. Boniouk
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      D) Mane/JRod

  24. da7id
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    So, is KDB essential:

    (with Alli + Salah in Mid, Lukaku in Att, )

    A. DeBruyne + Firmino
    B. Sané + Jesus

    ?

    Thnx!

  25. Hanked
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Evening Fella. Final decisions to be made, team has been locked in for a while.

    A) Yoshida
    B) Cedric

    1) Aguero
    2) Lukaku

  26. @FPL_Chess
      6 years, 9 months ago

      FPL Chess - { mini-League code 7741-3334 } : 300+ players. Everyone welcome.

    • ponsio22
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      A lot of knowledgable people on here. Perhaps someone can help!

      Can anyone assess how The Wembley impact will affect Kane, alli, Erikson? It does put me off kane especially seeing as he typically starts the season slow.

      Does it really make a difference, or should I just follow my gut and go without him until I use my wildcard in GW3?