Wisdom Of The Crowd – Gameweek 4

Each week we are reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).

Gameweek 3 Review

It was a pretty good week for the Crowd – our user Mr Crowd Wisdom (using the aggregated community prediction statistics as his picks) moved up 50 places into 44th in the pool.  That puts him just outside the top 10%, suggesting that the collective wisdom of the crowd can do better than our own individual predictions.

Congratulations to David Peters, aka SiegeTheDaySports, who won the Yellow Cap in the FFS league – he picked eight out of the 10 matches correctly, with just the Southampton and Spurs draws eluding him.

Here are the Gameweek 3 results in descending order of predictability:

We can also review the Predicted Goals Scored and Conceded against the actual results, and it tells a bit of a story:

Liverpool’s 4-0 win over Arsenal was the most surprising in terms of goals scored and conceded, whilst Newcastle, Swansea and Burnley also did better than expected in attack.  Once again, West Ham feature near the top of the goals conceded column, as we continue to overrate their defensive abilities – they’ve now conceded six goals in the last two matches.

Gameweek 4 Preview

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in Gameweek 4

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Yet again, it is Manchester  United at the top of the Predicted Goals table, although Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool and Spurs all occupy a top six spot, reflecting the tricky captaincy decision this week. Romelu Lukaku appears to be the safest bet for the captaincy, based on the crowd predictions.

The Arsenal and Manchester United defences are predicted to concede the fewest goals, while Burnley, West Brom and Southampton could also be profitable at a cheaper price point.

Here are the aggregated picks that we’ll enter into the game for Mr Crowd Wisdom in the FFS pool.

Man City    2    –    2    Liverpool
Arsenal    2    –    1    Bournemouth
Brighton    1    –    1    West Brom
Everton    1    –    2    Tottenham
Leicester    1    –    2    Chelsea
Southampton    1    –    1    Watford
Stoke    1    –    2    Man United
Burnley    1    –    1    Crystal Palace
Swansea    1    –    1    Newcastle
West Ham    1    –    1    Huddersfield

Is there anything else that catches your eye in these crowd predictions?

Don’t forget to join the FFS league on Superbru and make your predictions each week so that they are included in these data – the more knowledgeable people there are, the more accurate they should be in theory.