The time has come to roll out our regular post-Gameweek members’ article and check up on some of the stand-out performers across the most recent round of fixtures.
Much of our focus turns to midfield, where Arsenal, Man City and Everton’s big hitters finally hint at the form of last season.
West Ham and Newcastle’s budget strikers also catch the eye, while defenders from Man City and Bournemouth shrug off slow starts to make significant bids for our attention.
A lot of the top players, probably including you, aren’t where you want to be in terms of Overrall Rank. Players like Mark Sutherns and a lot of other top players aren’t where they would want to be. Why is that? There are a lot of factors in play that contribute to this, but I’m going to try and show you only one.
I’ve been saying it time and time again, I believe it is the year of the casual (at least that’s what the stats show right now). I’m a pretty experienced player (9 years), but I’m losing to players in my leagues that rarely play FPL, let alone watch the Premier League. I’m losing to casuals. But why is that? Well, to find out we have to look at what the typical casual does in terms of FPL.
***WARNING: This next part might trigger you.***
A casual loves nothing more than a quality 4-4-2. Why is that significant? Typically, over the last three years or so, the best formation has been one with 3 at the back, which most of us play. A casual also loves big name/big team players. Kante is a tremendous player, but not a tremendous FPL asset, so they pick Kante over a Gross. They also pick big name players up top like a Rooney. And defensively, obviously, they pick big team defenders: Bailly, Kompany, Vertonghen, David Luiz and Koscielny, and in the process ignore bargain defenders at $4.5m that are very good options. Now, because this season, casuals have an extra defender than most of us, and because they tend to be from big teams, is why they are outperforming us. Let’s look at the stats.
These are the statistics for clean sheets for the top 6 teams last season:
Tottenham – 17 CS – 44.7% chance of CS
Man United – 17 CS – 44.7% chance of CS
Chelsea – 16 CS – 42.1% chance of CS
Arsenal – 13 CS – 34.2% chance of CS
Liverpool – 12 CS – 31.5% chance of CS
Man City – 12 CS – 31.5% chance of CS
Out of 10 games, this is how top 6 teams performed against each other last season:
Man United – 4 CS – 40% CS
Liverpool – 3 CS – 30% CS
Tottenham - 3 CS – 30% CS
Arsenal – 2 CS – 20% CS
Chelsea – 1 CS – 10% CS
Man City – 1 CS – 10% CS
And out of 28 games, this is how the top 6 teams performed against non top 6 teams last season:
Chelsea – 15 CS – 53.6% CS
Tottenham – 14 CS – 50% CS
Man United – 13 CS – 46.4% CS
Arsenal – 11 CS – 39.3% CS
Man City – 11 CS – 39.3% CS
Liverpool – 9 CS – 32.1% CS
Right now let’s look at CS stats for this year. Please keep in mind that there have only been 7 games played for each team, so we don’t have a lot of data to look at, but there is still enough to show and argue that top 6 defences are impregnable.
Top 6 CS (out of 7 games):
Man United – 6 CS – 85.7% CS
Man City – 5 CS – 71.4% CS
Tottenham – 4 CS – 57.1% CS
Arsenal – 4 CS – 57.1% CS
Chelsea – 3 CS – 42.9% CS
Liverpool – 2 CS – 28.6% CS
Top 6 CS vs. top 6 teams:
Man City – 2 CS/2 – 100% CS
Liverpool – 1 CS/2 – 50% CS
Arsenal – 1 CS/2 – 50% CS
Chelsea – 1 CS/3 – 33.3% CS
Tottenham – 0 CS/1 – 0% CS
Man United – 0 CS/0 – 0% CS
Top 6 CS vs. non-top 6 teams:
Man United – 6 CS/7 – 85.7% CS
Tottenham – 4 CS/6 – 66.6% CS
Man City – 3 CS/5 – 60% CS
Arsenal – 3 CS/5 – 60% CS
Chelsea – 2 CS/4 – 50% CS
Liverpool – 1 CS/5 – 20% CS
Now let’s average everything, and let’s show the data side by side, and you will see how casuals have a certain edge on some people because of the top 6 team defenders.
THIS SEASON (7 games) vs. LAST SEASON (38 games)
TOTAL CS: 57% vs. 38.2%
VS. TOP 6: 50% vs. 23.3%
VS. NON-TOP 6: 59.4% vs. 43.5%
So, this season, based on 7 games Top 6 Defenders are 1.5x more likely to keep a CS. 2.1x more likely to keep a CS against another top 6 team. And 1.4x more likely to keep a CS against a non-top 6 team. I know, it’s only 7 games. But the fact that Man City have kept more clean sheets against top 6 teams this season in only 2 games than last season is an early indication that top 6 defenders are getting stronger. But, who knows, it could be the law of averages that ultimately lead us away from these defenders, as eventually they’ll stop keeping CS. But do you know which people aren’t getting rid of Courtois, Valencia, Cahill, Koscielny and Alderweireld? Casuals. And they’re profiting from it. So, while you’re trying to move up the ranks, stop praying for a Lukaku blank because all the casuals have him as a captain, and start praying for him to score against these top 6 defences, as their clean sheet potential so far this season has been hard to ignore.
Top stuff
Nice work. 442 or 433 is working because of better performance of defenders from big teams. So why not admit it and join the party? 🙂
To be fair a large cross section of people who come on here probably have defenders in their teams from these clubs. Spurs, United defenders are very common Arsenal maybe less so. With the fixture swing this upcoming a majority will jump on City and Chelsea defenders.
Yes, maybe one or two, but now it seems like 3 or 4 are necessary as I see a lot of teams with Jones, Alonso, Davies and Kola. Will the CS dry out soon, tho?
I have
Alonso Walker Kola Davies
Compelling argument, but tbh I don't think too many players expect to be particularly high after seven GW's.
If I am between 50k - 100k by the new year I'm happy.
Still plenty of time to make that.
You must be sucking on a lemon 😉
Must say I am sour because for once, casuals are profiting from their style (4 premium defenders). Who knows maybe next year, Herrera, Kante and Dier are gonna be banging in goals, and we're gonna have to start to consider CDMs as an option. lol
I quite often pick Kante - 100 point player for 5.0 who starts every game. Had Matic for a while too. I find this casual tag quite arrogant, and normally used to describe others that are doing better but don’t overthink it all - each to their own
Surely you should still have an edge over "casuals" by just picking better, more economic players from the same teams
Casuals: Bailly, Kompany, Vertonghen, David Luiz and Koscielny
Non-Casuals: Jones, Otamendi, Davies, Azpi, Monreal
That a massive difference of 30M and 76 points vs 28M and 211 points .... so an extra 2M to spend up top and 135 points to the good
I would expect non-Casuals to be fully aware of manager's moved to 3 at the back with 2 "wingbacks", called as defenders and the added value that was likely to give
Yes, but were we all considering of having 3 or 4 premium wing backs from gameweeks 1 to 5? No. But you know who already had a good amount of premium defenders from week 1? Casuals.
Er, yes, a lot of us were, think this is my 11th year, am no casual and have had much better finished than you have ever had and have been 4 at the back all season with 5 at some points.
When the season starts you look at the prices and decide where the value is and run with it, maybe you're just a bad player and not as good as you think you are.
Don't hate the player, hate the game.
Woah woah woah no need to bring my team into this. I'm not trying to convey that I'm salty, hence the trigger warning, but rather am trying to show to the people, including me, who are surprised at their OR ranking this year, why it could be the case that players that typically go for big name defenders are outperforming us.
Well there is because you're being very judgemental and arrogant and I find that a bit bizarre as you can't back it up.
Maybe their minds are more open to the game that changes every year and have adapted quicker than you, I dunno.
As said below, thanks to Mark and his pals, there's no such thing as an ill informed 'casual' any more, get over that and raise your game.
Judging from the "casuals" in my league, most of them have let their teams sit since GW1. This happens every year. They haven't adapted to the game that changes, rather the game has changed in their favor, which is what I'm trying to argue. And in my concluding paragraph I raise the question that maybe we should all adapt and try to get more top 6 defenders in as the clean sheets are rolling in.
On the topic of my team, highest finish is 6,348, and 8 years out of 9 in the top million.
Well done 🙂
The game changed when Conte made wing backs fashionable and other teams followed, when the fantasy site launched and those players were priced reasonably, it was down to you to be on top of that and not be stuck in the old routine and wonder why it's not been working for you for the last y weeks.
Sorry, can't see where or why you would blame anyone other than yourself for this.
And I did take initiative. I wrote a piece similar to this one, showing why wingbacks were of great value that got Hot Topic'd. I then got a few wing backs and have been performing better.
However, to those that are worried, like myself, about there position early on in this game, this post was meant to show that maybe if top 6 clean sheets will dry up, maybe people with lots of top 6 defenders (casuals, although more people are starting to get them), will fall down the ranks whilst they move up.
BTW you asserted that you finished higher than I ever have, I would like to know what place was your highest finish.
Sorry mate, I don't want to be that guy, let's just say it's been higher.
Can I just point out that it's not clean sheets alone that have been making the defenders a success, they are all getting attacking points to bulk up their score which is why loads are on them, take last week for an example, Bellerin, Trippier and Davies, chipped in at both ends and it shouldn't be a shock as they are now midfielders classed as defenders, it's not the first time it's happened, Bale had a year as a defender in midfield for Spurs, now theres just more of them, it's not going to slow down while their club formations stay as they are.
Please prove your rank has been higher by linking your team in your profile. If you're unsure of how to do this then ask me and I'll run through the steps.
And there's a difference between top 6 defenders and top 6 wing backs. I know that wing backs are good. I wrote a post about them and it got over 30 upvotes, which is why I have wingbacks. Please tell me if you want to see this article.
My assertion is that most casuals at the beginning of the season picked big name defenders, whether it was a wingback or not, and are reaping the rewards of them.
it's even more annoying to be "that guy" that puts down someone else's rank but doesn't link their own team/history.
This.
Jeez Freddy, stop being so offended. A lot of very average teams have had incredibly flukey starts. It's a simple fact.
you finished out of the top 1M ... yikes!
With 5 million players, how many do we consider casual ... maybe 4M?
That's a lot of dead wood to chop through before we get past them and it'll need more that 7 weeks
By casual I am including a lot of people who just don't have the time they would like, ,might miss deadlines or forgot to check their captain / vice captain .... so contrary to that, if you not casual you really shouldn't ever have of those reasons as excuses
I'm not sure what you're trying to say but this post wasn't about me, or about casuals, it was about top 6 clean sheets. I'm sorry it came off any other way. I included the trigger warning to try and indicate that.
It was good article - my last point is just that there's a lot of players and essentially its not a surprise if many of them are ahead at this stage
For August the only striker of any note was Lukaku and his ownership shows how popular he was
As typical active players, we probably invested in other strikers and expensive mids and paid the price for it
The non-active player's team wanders along without any worried or concerns, they would all have kept Hengazi and wouldn't have sold Jones ... it's just sod law and the way thing are
What do we consider to be the rough number of players who we would consider our active peers - the ones who have to dissect the same information as we do, who have to go through the same weekly conundrums and then hide behind the sofa for fear that we made the wrong choice ... the geeks of the FPL ... I'm just saying I think its probably about 1M
Last season a rival refused to do anything with his team ... and just get scoring week after week ... things like those freak McAuley "goals" , miracle subs when his team was decimated etc. kept him in it ... it was only the final quarter of the season that I was able to power past him and leave him for dead
It's just the football gods (poor relations of the poker gods) who are messing with us
Anyway, I like the challenge of clawing my way back from the bottom (got down to 3.465M .. .inside the top 31/2M as they say) .... I can let my rivals fantasize about finishing ahead of me and thinking their lead is safe
Err ... wasn’t that Mark’s team for GW1? 442 with 4 wing backs - another casual lol
It was a 4-4-2 with zero known wingbacks (Daniels possibly), but with one premium top 6 defender (Valencia). A person (maybe a casual) in my league GW1 had 4 defenders too, all 4 being top 6 premium defenders, one wingback.
Bertrand Valencia Daniels and Dann - my mistake 3 wingbacks in a 442
TM with Cedric Daniels Bertrand - 3 wing backs ...
Granville with Danilo Alonso Kolas in a 442
Maybe casuals are beating you with better tactics, you haven’t reacted quick enough and you have been playing bit of an old school game maybe ?
When I say wingbacks I mean wing backs in a 3-4-3 not in a 4 at the back. So, Mark had only one wingback (Daniels). TM one (Daniels). Granville did have 3.
And yes, according to the top 6 defenders, it seems like most of us have been playing an old school game, as big defenders are keeping lots of CS. That being said, I don't know if they can sustain it. But wing backs are cool, and im def getting some of those.
You have just described AZ’s team - bluddi casual 🙂
Unlike a player I know in my league who had 4 top 6 defenders from GW1, AZ only had two, probably because they were both wingbacks. He now has 4 premium defenders, 3 wingbacks, as he also sees that top 6 teams are picking up clean sheets.
There's no such thing as a casual and it's really arrogant to assume they are beneath you.
There's so much info pumped out by Mark and his FPL buddies that everyone is informed with regards to info and stratergy, a casual is some one who has no clue and just picks whoever scored last week, those days are gone thanks to Mark and the crew, just accept it for what it is and stop waiting for others to fail, concentrate on not failing yourself.
I'm not beneath jumping on a bandwagon ... just a question of checking the players history etc. and deciding whether its worth the ride
Is it casual to think f* me, Ward is up there on 41 points, re-assess Burnley and grab some of the action?
"Assume they are beneath you..."
You are getting ahead of yourself here - where has he implied this?
By calling anyone who's doing better than him a casual maybe????
Bit snotty don't you think? maybe look in the mirror and upping your game might be a better idea.
Relax - it's just a label no different to calling us "serious" or "nerds."
Mark who? +1
I think a lot of it has to do with people captaining Lukaku from the start and many of us sticking with Kane as captain from the beginning also. Throw in many other having Miki and Jones early because they are Man U fans and you get the start for more casual players we are seeing. I think everyone needs to relax we are only 7 games in. It will sort itself out in the end.... It always does.
I don't see this as a casual season
So far, the obvious players are performing
Aguero, lukaku, kane, morata
The key to 4 at the back this season is that hazard, kdb, sanchez all haven't been a factor and the mids at 7.0 type prices were all blatantly poor value
So midfield this season (so far) is where less value is. Its fine getting 2 decent price mids, eriksen, salah, silva, mkhi etc. But putting together 4 after having a strike force of say kane morata lukaku etc. Isn't very easy.
I feel it's been quite key to go 4 from the off until some big name mids improve.
Plus, casuals start with chips, so ranks start slow for serious players
Post of the season.
Sign this lad up, Jonty.
* rips up Wildmonkey team and boots Bavies for Valencia.
Hot topic would be great. TM?
Calm down. We've only played seven gameweeks.
So much this.
The way big teams are keeping CS's at the moment is unstustainable and people who go big at the back now, will suffer from inflexibility in the future.
This.
***PLEASE READ***
I apologize if I have made generalizations about casuals. When I say casuals I refer to the players and friends that I know in real life, that barely play FPL, and barely change their team. I am in no way trying to put them down or say that certain managers are better than others, although the tone of my piece might say otherwise.
I am also not trying to say that my season is going poorly because of them. I'm just merely trying to show why the managers most of us refer to as "casuals" are doing somewhat better than we expected this year.
I know this statement might have made it worse, but I'm not trying to insult anyone. I'm trying to show that premium defenders, be it wingbacks or not, are performing higher than expected, and casuals (the managers in my leagues) are getting most of the rewards as a good portion of them had a lot of them since GW1.
We've only had 7 GWs, so it's far too early to declare it the year of anything. It's a marathon, not a sprint.
Ever since the chips came in, those who use them early have taken early leads, but most of them fall back later.
And ever since The Scout has been presenting so much information on the FPL site and FFS is no longer the well-kept secret of a minority that it once was, there are far more well-informed managers playing FPL these days than there used to be. So it is no longer easy for even the best managers to achieve a high OR in the early weeks of the season. Some will, but many won't - it requires luck as well as skill.
Also, many managers just got lucky that some of their early choices, such as not starting with Harry Kane, turned out well. Things could easily have turned out differently. But they will have to make many more good decisions if they are to stay ahead of good experienced players till the end of the season.
I want to thank you for the post. It’s great to read other members doing statistical research designed to help us all. Very refreshing instead of wading through endless rate my teams.
Thanks, that's very much appreciated.
+1
I'd rather read this and the ensuing discussion rather than umpteen RMTs with Silva and Choupo-Moting in any day.
Great post
The post would have read alot better if the data had been the star and the focus had been on the issue of premium defenders, instead of the catnip that is the term casual.
I think the bigger question you raise is why are the bigger clubs keeping more CS early on? I wonder if we could zoom out a bit further and see if the six clubs who have been feeding from the Champions League trough for so long are now financially so superior to the rest of the league that the PL might become like La Liga used to be, extremely top heavy. Would love to know how many blowouts there have been this year vs previous years, how few upsets this year vs previous years, etc.
Maybe that all changes after these internationals and the top six's players are more exhausted by the schedule with Europe, WCQ, and PL all to balance, but my general impression is that most of the league is pretty awful right now below the top six.
I agree, which is why I tried to reword the article a bit to take out some of that stuff and to focus on the data, but it was made a hot topic, so I couldn't do that. And my only real reason for talking about casuals is that I know a fair few people are upset that some players are getting "lucky" for picking top 6 defenders, so I though by mentioning that they would be more likely to take a look.
Just took a quick look at the FPL leader board by total score. Here are the non top six players:
Forster
Ward
Yoshida
Richarlison
Doucore
GroB
Vardy
7/30, but Vardy and the Southampton def combo are fairly mainstream picks.
There's your headline, perhaps -- it isn't the casual FPL players, it's the popular actual PL players who are to blame. Almost all the stars have come out to shine so far this season.
I think this is the main reason. All the obvious picks shy of Hazard and Sanchez who were easy to avoid due to injury and transfer concerns, have returned points. It just takes a few popular bandwagons like Salah, Eriksen, Lukaku to score well each week and anyone who doesn't have them is playing a massive game of catch-up.
I played my wildcard prematurely in GW3 to get Kane and Sanchez, then sold Kane after his blank home to Swansea. What followed for the next 3 weeks was carnage.
Quite clear from the early gameweeks, has been that Man Utd and Spurs are going to keep clean sheets. Throw in Alonso and Azpilicueta bringing attacking returns and everyone playing reasonably safe will have had a good start.
Chill out and enjoy the international break instead of brooding over your poor start.
If you stick to your game and don't make any rash decisions then if you are the player you think you are you will finish above your less engaged rivals - the cream always rises to the top.
This "year of the casual" is rolled out every single year. The only real year of the casual was when Yaya was ripping it up.
Personally it was when Ramsey was ripping it up. I was foolish to not capitalise on him, thinking he would fade away, and as we know he never did. You live and you learn.
That was the same season lol. For me Yaya was the bigger casual success. He was a big name CM who had one shot a game and pretty much scored every other game. You have to say he had a sweet strike that season especially his direct freekicks but sometimes it was undeniably jammy like the second half of the season when he got a few penalties after Aguero went off injured in the last few minutes. He just kept going, stats be damned. Ramsey actually was getting forward and looking threatening.
It was unreal. One shot... goal. One FK... goal. Aguero goes off.... penalty... goal. 😆
Even that wasn't really the year of the casual.
It was just that many FFS diehards were too stubborn and inflexible in their thinking to recognise that he and Ramsey were actually good picks that season.
I remember I got Ramsey in fairly early after a watching a few games but I just refused to be swayed by Yaya nearly all season and he just kept delivering. Thankfully I eventually gave in and got him for his 30pt DGW (the first week I owned him actually!). All the 'casuals' and dead teams that jumped early after Yaya's first big haul all did really well that season because he kept it up; and I still think there was a good slice of fortune in that because several penalties and freekicks were because other players had gone off the field just minutes before.
Man City didn't get many penalties while Aguero was still on the field, because he preferred staying on his feet to going down easily.
So most of City's penalties were awarded after Aguero had been subbed off, by which time the opposition were also getting tired.
It was at this stage that Yaya was also given permission to bomb forward, after being told to stay back for the first hour or so.
So it was no coincidence that most of Yaya's penalties and other goals occurred late in the game after Aguero had been substituted.
Ronaldo 07/08, I think. Was the real year of the casual. Especially if you were too stubborn to get him in your team.
This is a solid composition of stats fantasynik123, Well done! And this is the exact reason in my WC plans, I am moving away from the much trusted 3-4-3 and into new territory of the 4-3-3 and even 5 at the back in some GWs. Im sure we will all end up better than the casuals by GW38! nice read!
lol
boo hoo
I will take my 89 casual points from my DDG/ Valencia 7 GW double up all the way to the bank. Thanks very much.
Great thread. Shit original post.
Well done to FPL Freddie - kudos. You expressed everything I wpuld
*would want to but couldn't be assed to
Don't really think it was shit. Even you with double Man U defence, weren't expecting 6 CS out of 7. The numbers are insane and I think casuals who like a 4 top 6 defenders at the back got lots of points from it. Just because you had two premium defenders GW1 doesn't mean you're a casual.
It was shit. Anyone can crunch a few numbers. You failed to adapt. Had a big moan about it and then retracted with a half ass apology.
Sorry but this is nonsense. In GW1 only 8.6% of teams played the 4-4-2 you say "casuals" love so much. By comparison 67.2% played the standard 3-4-3. There is a much simpler explanation.
"Casuals" play their chips early. So far 35.1% have played their TC, 16.3% their BB, and 15.2% the powerful new FH chip. In addition the most popular team (MNU) have started well and popular players like Lukaku and De Gea have performed. We will easily overtake these players when we play our chips in the DGWs and quite likely before as although the casuals may have got off to a good start points wise they almost certainly haven't preserved their SV.
No need to panic. If anything the casuals have even less chance this year as the algorithm is less volatile and rewards bandwagons less and the FH chip has added more complexity to the game.
Who knows maybe only 8.6% of players are in fact "casuals".
And yes, I agree other factors are in play: "There are a lot of factors in play that contribute to this, but I’m going to try and show you only one."
Was just trying to show how top 6 clean sheets are benefiting "casuals".
Owning Davies and Alonso is hardly symptomatic of casuality.
Defenders from big teams are scoring well. The rise of the casual is from you trying to think that Naughton is 'better' than premium defenders.
Big well known players are currently performing, you've got to adapt to that. If Rooney Matic and Kante were scoring every week, then I'd believe you.
Who is the bigger casual? The casual or the casual who loses to casuals?
One dirty word. "Coverage"
In your first sentence swap out Davies and Alonso with Alderweireld and Cahill. Does it still make sense?
There is a difference between top 6 wingbacks and top 6 non-wingback defender.
I think it is more the "year of patience". A lot of less active managers probably have DDG in goal (highest scoring goalie so far) and lukaku as their captain. Throw in an Eriksen/Salah etc if players that were highly owned to start the year and you have a solid foundation for a sound team.
If you try to chase last weeks points/price rises, you will have likely suffered a bit (like me) and missed hauls on players you dropped. Sadly for me, if I didn't touch my GW1 team and left Lukaku as captain, I would have 408 points. Due to my mess ups, I have 395.
So to me, it's not the formation/ having four defenders etc, but rather patience that is winning out.
This is all true.
Same as every other year.
I agree, but last year in particular, I had more successes than failures when playing aggressively. This year not so much!! I have decided to play more patiently for the next few weeks though.
2013/14 was the year of the casual - with picks like Ramsey and Yaya immediately snapped up by casuals (including myself at the time) and ignored on FFS due to poor underlying stats.
Such a long post to make yourself feel better about having a shite start even after spending hours thinking about Fantasy Football.
😆
I started with 4-4-2 , sitting comfortably at 1644 rank. I had the trust in big defenders since the start. I have gone 5 at the back in my draft teams .
So yeah it's time when we(not the casuals) change our tried and tested 3-4-3 and move to 4/5 at the back
Disagree completely.
If anything, this is the season of more serious players, the most challenging season yet.
I used to be a casual for several years. I still have casuals in my MLs. Most casuals go with 3-4-3. They're aware that it's the most common formation, they just don't pick the right players at the right time like we do. And don't plan for double gameweeks, blank gameweeks, etc.
All you had to do was take a closer look at the pricing of players this year and the scores of premium defenders/wingbacks last season, and you wouldn't have favored a 3 at the back formation from GW1.
I'm ahead of all the casuals in my MLs. Almost all of them play 3-4-3.
Casual players not planning for double gameweeks, blanks etc is definitely the thing which gives more serious players the biggest edge. I've sat next to people at work who log in to check their team on a Friday and see that only 5 of their players have a fixture and it completely takes them by surprise.
For what it's worth I find it quite interesting to speak to people that don't take the game too seriously as they come up with their own ideas / strategies as opposed to someone like me who takes a lot of ideas from people that have done far more research than I ever will myself from places like this and listening to the scoutcast etc
Great post. I hope you see this reply considering the unmerited abuse your post has got!
Not sure why everyone is giving you stick on here about casuals - at the end of the day if you’re reading FFS you’re not a casual. He means the people that pick a team at the start and maybe change one player every 4 weeks but are still doing well because when someone like Yaya Toure in their starting 11 doesn’t play they get a Chelsea defender off the bench.
I have lots of people in my leagues who have had 5 defenders costing over 5.5m from the start of the season with two 5.5m keepers, and would play 3 or 4 at the back with no midfield and poor strikers. Obvious no one on this site would ever do that - it’s crazy having so much money on the bench. But that approach has worked wonders for them this season so far because of the high number of clean sheets.
(It’s also worked well for me in Draft where I have Alonso, Davies, Monreal, Valencia and Bertrand, with Ederson in goal.)
Bottom line is the number of clean sheets may fall but a lot of the top teams have looked much better in defence than we’ve seen in a while.
And these people will drop down the ranks in time. If you can’t adapt to beat them, that’s your problem.
Just because you spend time reading about FPL doesn’t mean you have a divine right to beat people who don’t.
Of course it will settle down and I'll back myself to beat all of the casuals in my league over the season. This post is just explaining why the casuals have done well so far.
Last season I was stuck below the 1m mark after 12 gameweeks and came back to finish 1 point off the top 5k. So no panic here as yet!
A lot of effort to justify a lower rank than you would like. I don't care for the casual tag at all. Players are just players and you're trying to beat them all regardless of how much time they put in to fpl. I put in a fair bit of time and am pretty happy with my rank so far. A "good" player might adapt to the trends you are discussing and play 442, maybe select the best big name players. Aren't you the casual for just carrying on with the same old tactics you always have?
Nah mate - you've just not adopted to the season. So many fpl players called it this season with their predicted change to the game. Sounds like you've just been so to realise the reality of the real game.
* slow to realise
76.4% of teams are casual.
i know this because 23.6% own Bavies 😉
Good one !! (Davies owner)
Every season somebody posts something like ‘it’s the casuals season’, every season they’re wrong.
Good players adapt to the situation, adapt to different ways to play the game, and casuals drop down the ranks.
Overall ranks and mini-leagues always take months to settle down, if you’ve been playing the game 9 years you should realise that.
+ 42.
Nice post. I agree with you that it's time to adapt to big hitters at the back. I went with 5 at the back a couple of weeks ago and had a positive jump in OR, currently on 228k. On my WC I decided to go with Alonso, Davies, Kolasinac, Mendy and Cresswell. Mendy did not go to plan because of his injury, if I picked up Walker I would have 2 more clean sheets.
Right now I feel value is in defense and also think that heavy hitting front three is the way to go.
I understand where youre coming from but this is not a particularly difficult game. There are however, guys like yourself who take it very seriously. I enjoy the forums but the stats aspect of the game is not something I really entertain. Its like taking championship manager on the PC seriously, I got to the stage where I would look at the time I had spent on it and thought, for what?? I've been playing this game for years, I base my decisions on watching the games and essentially hunches. It seemed to me quite obvious that defenders were the way to go this year, considering the output of Alonso, Walker and Bellerin in recent seasons and their more attacking intent. I also went three's with City assets because I felt they had the potential to blow teams away. Again, this is not a science it was more common sense. This forum though was regularly warning people off City assents. I think the influence of this site has some responsibility for the more experienced players struggling, rather than going with their hunch...they maybe too easily swayed by those stats and in the belief that they back up any decisions. I have no doubt that over the course of the season, you will have a higher rank than most 'casuals', but this will be because the majority don't take it so seriously. You just have to accept that common sense hunches, rather than relying on stats has proven more successful so far this season. Your formula will always come out top at the end though.
There has never been a Year of the Casual, and there never will be.
Success at FPL requires skill as well as luck, and luck alone might get you a flying start and it might take you higher some years than others, but those who finish the season at the top will also require plenty of skill.
There are some seasons when following the FFS Template and certain principles widely advocated in FFS without keeping an open mind is less effective than others. There are some seasons when doing the obvious thing works out better than overthinking. But you won't win FPL without having skill as well as luck.
One such season was the one when many in FFS stubbornly failed to recognise that Yaya and Ramsey had become good options and declared their success unsustainable.
This season could just be the one in which formations such as 4-3-3, 5-2-3, 5-3-2 and even 4-4-2 became as effective as 3-4-3, which has been the best in most recent seasons.
But it is unfair to label all early adopters of these formations as casuals (although some of the 4-4-2s who haven't discovered how to change their formation might be). Some experienced players in FFS may not be quite as bright as we'd like to think we are. Some of us are reluctant to think outside the box and consider alternatives to what has worked well in the past. But others, such as the current leader of the FFS Members mini-league, have kept a more open mind and recognised that playing 4 or 5 at the back might just be a more viable option for at least the start of this season.
This
FFS - some people need to take a look at themselves on this thread.
This guy has done some very in-depth research which to me is very relevant at this current time. Yet all I see are these silly fukkers getting hung up over his use of the term "casual."
Get over yourselves and read the article again so you understand what this guy is truly trying to say.
Idiots. 😡
easy tiger 🙂 Its just opinions. Thats what forums are all about..opinions. Some will agree, some will disagree. No need to get rude.
No rudeness involved. People are being told straight how it is. Time to get a grip.
If you are that hung up about rudeness, why not have a go at those taking a pop at young Nik after all the work he put in yet somehow find it in their tiny minds to hang him up over something so trivial?
"Yet all I see are these silly fukkers getting hung up over his use of the term "casual.""
In my opinion, that's pretty rude. I don't care much to read it. It's a forum, people will say things you agree with or not. No need to write that kind of offensive drivel.
Go on supporting such folk - if you think their behaviour is acceptable, you are a poorer man for it.
This.
We live in a day and age where there are those who apparently get outrageously offended over what others may see as quite innocuous things.
In response to the poster, I can see what you mean but we've been here before. First of all, it was clear that WBs would excel this season. Man U, City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Swansea, West Ham and others have all played with them. If you didn't spit this, it is your oversight.
It's very early too. Kane blanking through August and Lukaku sprinting out of the blocks helped more casual players for sure as the more serious players tend to gravitate towards the Spurs man. I know I did and I am still ruing it!
Nah this is said every season and the cream always rises by the end. Every season there are examples of casuals benefitting from the straightforward picks, but by the time May rolls round it's a different story. I expect the same this year.
An article within an article
Think settled after much help from here on what my WC team might be. Any issues with side? Richarlison will probably come in in couple of weeks. Hazard a calculated risk but if scores big v Crystal Palace then I may be ahead of the game......
Fabianski
Cedric Monreal Maguire Davies
Hazard Sterling Gross
Kane Jesus Vardy
Elliot Fellaini Ward Choupo-Moting
That's pretty close to mine but trying to sneak in Alonso/Dave
How are you managing that. Tried myself but could not do reasonably with Hazard
Yep Hazard is indeed the problem
An interesting question for you?!
A friend of mine said he was hammered and made a load I mean a load of hits/transfers!
If he played his free hit chip would it go back to the previous weeks team or the team he had before he played the hit button!
Previous weeks team I believe and transfers cancelled
Hmmm I will let him know!
"a friend of mine" 😉 Yes, all hits are cancelled
Nice asking for a friend question 😆
goes back to the team before any transfers were m ade
As I understand it, the team will go back to what it was before he made the transfers
I've been team mates with Carlos Tevez Steven N'Zonzi Cesc Fabregas Gylfi Sigurdsson and Ander Herrera.
Who am i? Difficulty 2/5
Llorente?
this
A or B (with and without Lukaku)? 😀 Apreciate the great help as always on here!
A.
Elliot
Davies - Cedric - Mee - Monreal
Coutinho - Hazard - Sterling
Kane - Vardy - Jesus
(Pereira - RLC - Carroll - Mbemba)
B.
Fabianski
Davies - Cedric - Ward - Otamendi
Coutinho - D.Silva - Shaqiri
Kane - Lukaku - Jesus
(Elliot - RLC - Carroll - Mbemba)
i prefer Silva Shaqiri Lukaku to Hazard Sterling Vardy personally
Thanks mate! How do you think B looks on a whole?
looks good. Only worry is playing one of Ward, RLC or Carrol a week, but I wouldn't be too worried about that as the rest of the more than make up for it
B for me; can't see Lukaku's scoring ending against the 3rd worst defence in the league.
Cheers! How do you think B looks on a whole?
B very nice. Might want to consider Shaqiri to Choupo and Mbemba up to a 4.5 ?
Only gives me 0.3! I actually think Mbemba might get back in the team! Yedlin or Wimmer at 4.4 might be worth it if I downgrade Ward>Mee for the extra 0.1
B and monitor Shaqiri
2 FT's but nothing in the bank; what would you do with this lot?
Foster Elliot
Alonso Davies Jones Mee (Mbemba
Alli Ritchie Richarlison (Carroll RLC)
Kane Lukaku Jesus
Assuming all survive the international break, would Foster to Pope be a waste as current rotation is poor?
Would quite like Hazard but not sure how to afford him....
Have to be Alli to Hazard and Alonso to perhaps Otamendi?
Getting rid of Alonso almost defeats the point of getting Hazard for me.
Downgrading Davies could be an option though.
73 points behind my ML leader, can I catch him?
His team:
Forster
Azpili | Otamendi | Davies
Ramsey | Ritchie | Silva | Groß
Kane | Morata* | Lacazette
Elliot | Lowe | T.Carroll | Long
My team:
Foster
Alonso | Jones | Kolasinac | Davies
Coutinho | Ritchie | Groß
Kane | Lukaku | Jesus
Elliot | T.Carroll | RLC | Tuanzebe
*He has Morata injured with 0.1ITB so won't be able to do a straight swap with 1FT to Jesus.
haven't looked at the teams, but ofc you can catch him. I was around 60 points behind after 2 GWs, and now am only 3 points behind. Easily do-able
Good going that is! Quick too
He got a 73 point lead in 7 GWs. I think 31 GWs should be enough to haul him in...
Worry about your team for the time being.
Depending on your future transfers, maybe sometime in the season but not next week
Not this week. Sure you can close down 73 points in 31 weeks.
Thanks everyone 🙂
Yeah easily. I made up 120points in 6 gwks last year to win my ML on the last day 😀
- Massive thanks to HarryC
Pretty nice that! Kane was massive for me all last season 🙂
Kane is such a great captaincy option, season keeper for me all the way, just a shame I captained Sanchez over him last minute in the dgw 🙁
For sure! The 3 guys I overtook all started out this season with KaneC xD
Think I did Jesus! Worst out of the 3!
200 points behind my ML leader last year and closed it to within 20 by the end and that was with 8 weeks to go.
Yeah, gaps aren't a worry right now at all, just as long as you don't do anything crazy trying to close it. Risky captain picks, massive hits etc, just play your game and it will close over time
Wow so close!
I was over 100 pts behind leader around 32 Week last year... I won. However its still early, so better concentrate on your team for now IMO
Thanks for the advice
O was 300 points behind my ml leader. Didn't panicl played my game till last gw and ended up throwing his team out. You can do it don't worry
RMWCT
Fab Elliot
Davies Jones Cresswell Ward Mbemba
Salah Alli Sterling Atsu RLC
Jesus Kane Vardy
Hopefully Sterling will get the minutes needed, can't say much bad about this team.
Yeah, I think it's a risk worth taking when City are at home to Stoke and Burnley though.
Agreed
Fab/Elliot do not work, after the first 4. Cresswell may be replaced by Masuaku.
Thoughts on switching Salah to Coutinho if on WC?
£0.2m saving could be important depending on your cash situation... really struggling with this one as Coutinho is rising tonight!
why not?
Pool have Utd then Spurs, might be worth going without either then decideding on Courtinho/Salah/Mane gwk9/10
Babylonians were an interesting civilisation.
bleedin casuals
Fabianski
Bellerin Cedric Jones Alonso
Salah Eriksen Ritchie
Morata Kane Rooney
Elliot Shaqri Carroll Tuanzabe
1 FT & 0 ITB
Morata + Rooney > Jesus + Chicharito best transfer options?
Difficult without anything itb. I would probs rather downgrade to Joselu or abraham than get chicharito though
Eww no don't fancy either of them two
I think you need to upgrade to Vardy really.
Guys, this will be my -4 team for gw8 but just making a contingency plan for if Hazard explodes. Thinking my best route would be one of the City boys + Vardy if he underperforms to Hazard + Joselu or someone under 6m. Can't get rid of Kane or Lukaku as it isn't fun hiding behind the couch, Salah stays too with his returns, it may be that I can't actually justify losing anyone so we'll see I guess
Fabianski (Elliott)
Davies Jones Ward (Clark Rosenoir)
Salah Silva Sterling Brady (Chalobah)
Kane Lukaku Vardy
Guys,
which trio for the missing spots?
Pope - Elliot
Azpilicueta - BDavies - Otamendi - ___ - Mbemba
___ - ___ - Richarlison - Choupo-Moting - RLC
Kane - G.Jesus - Vardy
A) Monreal - Coutinho - Sterling
B) Cedric - Coutinho - D.Silva
C) Cedric - Mane - Sterling
Which?
A
A
Do you guys think that Fabianski will rise tonight?
Don't think so, he's been hanging around the 97 mark for a couple of weeks now
Doubt it, he's been high 90s for about a week now, no other gk injuries and wild cards being played.. unlikely
No
Thoughts on De Gea + Salah + Lukaku --> Fabianski + Hazard + Jesus (-4)?
Thoughts on what to do with this team? 2 FTs and 0.0 ITB.
De Gea - Elliot
Kolasinac - Trippier - Yoshida - Mee - Long
Eriksen - Salah - Silva - Atsu - Carroll
Kane - Lukaku - Abraham
Currently on De Gea + Salah + Lukaku --> Fabianski + Hazard + Jesus (-4)
Simple GK poll:
A) Fabianski & Elliot
B) Pope & Elliot
C) Hart & Elliot
D) Foster & Elliot
B
How about this team?
Ddg/elliott
Azpi/otamendi/davies/ward/naughton
Salah/sterling/choupo/atsu/fellaini
Vardy/kane/jesus
I see many WC' but I do not see Fellaini included. Since the Pogba injury he has started and played 90mins all 3 games and accumulated 22 points. He is 4.9 and with so few MF good under 6.0 I do not understand. Anyway I am playing 4-3-3- and Fellaini is my first reserve for any injury etc that may occur until Pogba returns. Also may step in place of Vardy if the fixtures warrant it.
Seriously good article, thank you very much for taking the time to put it together and the insights- especially on John Stones, Ward and Shaquiri. On a wildcard so it's very tempted to add these guys in!
