What the Form and Fixtures Say – Gameweek 11 Captaincy

This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League managers find the best captain for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining latest form and fixture data.

Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.

Before I take a look at Gameweek 11’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.

REFINING THE ODDS

For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.

Additionally, I have added a new ‘goals conceded H/A’ column to take into account a respective fixtures defensive record. For example, Arsenal face Swansea at home this weekend, how many goals have Swansea conceded away from home in their last four away fixtures? This will add to the totals of the other columns to hopefully give a more balanced look at the fixture table and to give a potential insight on how certain teams are shaping up home/away.

I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of two players are the same. The Home and Away PPG will now take into account the last foi=ur Home or Away fixtures that player has featured in.

The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.

SUCCESS

What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll.

Success will also be defined as:

• Explosive = 10+ points
• Success = 7-9 points
• Average = 4-6 points
• Fail = no attacking returns

Gameweek 10’s top pick Sergio Aguero was left on the bench in what was a largely frustrating Gameweek for the majority of the top captaincy options. Three of the top six in the FFS captaincy poll did not even play, these three also just happened to be the top three in the form table.

Let’s take a look at Gameweek 11’s results…..

FORM

*3 away games available

FIXTURES

RESULTS

According to fixture and form indicators, Harry Kane is the most likely to deliver attacking returns, according to this method.

The Spurs frontman has seemingly recovered from his hamstring troubles to put in a 79 minute performance in the midweek 3-1 win against Real Madrid.

Registering an impressive total PPG of 11, including six goals and an assist in his last four league run outs.

This week he faces a home time with a Crystal Palace side, which has conceded eight goals in their last four fixtures and 11 goals in their last four away games. This includes seven big chances and 27 shots in the box conceded in the same time frame. Given the Eagles frail backline Kane certainly looks the stand-out captain this week.

All eyes will be on Friday’s press conference to alleviate any lingering doubts on the availability of Poch’s star man this upcoming game week.

Finishing a close second this week is Sergio Aguero, who tops the form table and has six goals and three assists in his last four appearances, giving him a total PPG of 11.75.

The Argentine has an impressive home PPG of 7.5 and his confidence should be running high after his successful Champions League strike against Napoli last night saw him become City’s all time leading scorer.

This record breaking marksman faces an Arsenal side that has conceded six goals in their last four Gameweeks, with eight shipped in their last quartet of road trips.

The Gunners have also conceded a whopping 15 big chances and 20 shots in the box over their last four.

Although at the time of writing Arsenal have also yet to play their Europa League tie against Red Star Belgrade, it is likely Arsene Wenger will rest the majority of his players with the City clash in mind. This article suffered from Pep’s rotation last week and continues to offers caution when considering Aguero or any City asset this week.

CLEAN SHEET TABLE