The Digest – Gameweek 12

We bring Gameweek 12 to a close this evening with our usual three-point post-mortem.

We acknowledge how Eden Hazard is becoming difficult to ignore, how Paul Pogba’s return forces a reassessment of Man United’s goal power, and how Pep Guardiola’s insight into his team selection offers mixed news for owners of the Man City attack.

The Player

Hampered by an ankle injury at the start of the season, it’s taken some time for Eden Hazard to grab the attention of Fantasy Premier League managers.

Eased back into contention by manager Antonio Conte, the Belgian was afforded just three sub appearances in the champions’ first six before finally returning to the teamsheet in Gameweek 7.

But with 32 FPL points in the last three league fixtures, Hazard now merits serious consideration as a premium priced big-hitter once again.

Shifted into a central support role following the recent return to fitness of N’Golo Kante, the winger served a timely reminder of his abilities with two goals and an assist helping him to 18-point haul in the 4-0 demolition of West Brom last weekend.

Sitting in a mere 5% of squads compared with team-mate Alvaro Morata’s 24%, Hazard – who has delivered at least 190 points in four of the previous five seasons – is shaping up to be an outstanding differential over the winter period.

One look at the schedule shows that Conte’s side have just two testing fixtures – this weekend’s trip to Liverpool and a Gameweek 22 visit to Arsenal – over the next 15 rounds of matches.

During that stretch, they have eight hugely enticing home encounters (SWA NEW SOU BHA STK LEI BOU WBA) as well as trips to West Ham, Huddersfield, Everton, Brighton and Watford.

Given that Hazard scored more goals in front of his own supporters (12) than any midfielder last term, the case for his acquisition – as an alternative to or even alongside Morata in our XIs – is gathering pace.

Furthermore, the final five of those eight fixtures listed above at Stamford Bridge also occur when Harry Kane plays at home, offering a clear captaincy alternative to the Spurs striker should his Wembley woes continue.

Overshadowed by the clamour to acquire Paul Pogba in midfield, the Belgian has convinced only 37,000 to take the plunge for his visit to Anfield.

But the ensuing schedule suggests that it won’t be too long before many of us clamber aboard the bandwagon as Hazard looks to build momentum for the Christmas period and beyond.

The Team

After scoring just twice in the previous four fixtures, thanks, in part, to a trio of defensive displays against Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea, Man United finally rediscovered their thirst for goals at home to Newcastle United.

The return to action of Paul Pogba made an immediate impact on the Red Devils’ fortunes after a 4-1 demolition of the Magpies.

The most bought player for Gameweek 13, the 8.0-priced Frenchman has been snapped up by a massive 240,000 after bagging a 12-point FPL return last Saturday.

And his manager’s post-match assertion that United are a different team with Pogba on board is borne out by the statistics.

Looking at the data with/without the midfielder, their average number of shots (18.8 vs 11.3), efforts from open play (13.4 vs 8.4) and attempts on target (7 vs 3.9) are far superior.

Tellingly, United have registered double the number of big chances per match (four vs two) and goals (3.2 vs 1.6) in the five league matches that the Frenchman has started.

It’s also no coincidence that Saturday saw Romelu Lukaku end a seven-match club scoring drought in all competitions. The Belgian continues to average a goal-a-game with Pogba in the line-up, compared with three goals in seven without him.

Although there’s a fear that Mourinho may take a defensive stance for the Gameweek 15-16 encounters against Arsenal and Man City, they are the only occasions that United face top six sides between now and Gameweek 24.

With that in mind, owners of Lukaku – who has dropped from 11.8 to 11.5 in recent weeks due to his patchy form – are perhaps more likely to hold in light of Pogba’s impact on his fortunes.

At the back, the situation surrounding Phil Jones’ fitness ahead of a busy winter schedule doesn’t look promising for his security of starts and may well drive some to consider David de Gea as their fire and forget option between the sticks.

Priced at 5.8, the Spaniard’s penchant for save points means that he trails Lukaku by just two FPL points (68 to 70) over the opening 12 Gameweeks.

The Talking Point

Whisper it, but Pep Guardiola may have just done us all a favour.

So often the scourge of Fantasy managers, the Man City head coach took time out ahead of yesterday’s Champions League clash against Feyenoord to offer a handy explanation as to why he no longer plays Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus in the same XI.

Citing the absence of raiding full-back Benjamin Mendy, Guardiola reckons he needs the pace of Leroy Sane to stretch opposition defences down the left flank instead. Essentially, it’s either/or for Aguero and Jesus when it comes to naming the teamsheet.

Taking the Mendy factor into consideration, dare we say it – we can now apply a pattern to the City manager’s recent lineups.

From the point when the summer signing from Monaco limped off with a serious knee injury in Gameweek 6, Sane has started every league match. He had previously started just two of the first six.

Jesus was given the nod in all three of the subsequent away matches – indeed, he has been included in the XI in all six of their road trips. From Gameweek 7 onwards, the Brazilian has started just once at home – and that was in Gameweek 8 against Stoke, a match that Aguero missed due to injury.

The Argentine, meanwhile, has been available for four of the league matches since Mendy was injured. He has started both their home fixtures over this period and has played no minutes of the two on the road. Over the next six Gameweeks, City play three times at home and three away.

Currently sitting in 20.4% and 15.6% of FPL squads, it looks like Aguero and Jesus will continue to job share until Mendy’s return – which is expected in late April. Unless Guardiola can recruit in January.

Given that Aguero played the 90 minutes against Feyenoord last night and City travel to Huddersfield on Sunday, he could be back on bench-warming duties again, with Jesus leading the line.

In the meantime, everything looks rosy for Sane on the back of his manager’s recent comments, with Guardiola’s decision to rest him altogether against the Dutch outfit on Tuesday only strengthening the growing sense of confidence in his pitch time.

Admittedly, there is no such thing as a nailed-on attacker in this City side and taking Guardiola’s teamsheet for granted is never a wise move – particularly on the brink of a hectic winter schedule.

For now, though, this may be as good as it gets.