Preamble

The Pre-Match Preamble – Gameweek 38

What a difference a year makes.

Just under twelve months ago I was lamenting my worst ever campaign in eight years of playing the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game. I’d limped over the line, recording a rank of 192,837 – a pretty miserable result for someone who sleeps with the fixture list etched onto the back of his eyelids.

While there was no obvious excuse, it’s fascinating to reflect on the lessons I’d identified back then. It’s even more enlightening to see if I’ve really learnt anything from those struggles, and whether that’s helped me turn things around.

React as quickly as possible to form players and don’t be shy to use hits.
The stubbornness which prompted the slow reaction to the form of Aaron Ramsey and Yaya Toure last season was well documented. This term I’ve been fortunate in that there have been no real equivalents.

I got on Harry Kane in Gameweek 15 and he scored 17 goals in the following 14 weeks. I guess I can take some credit for that. Other than Kane, it’s difficult to identify a bandwagon that got close to surprising us by maintaining form over a long spell. Charlie Austin is probably one I missed for a while – more on him in a moment.

It would have been interesting if, for some reason, I’d resisted Kane, missed the early goals and then allowed my stubborn nature to keep me from acquiring him. That might still be a weakness of mine – this season didn’t really test that too much, although the Austin situation hints that I’ve still got work to do.

As for hits, I’ve certainly used them sparingly, taking just three all season. I’ve no doubt that they can be effective and, as I wrote last weekend, coupling them with a banked transfer to make three changes will be a tactic I will definitely take into next season.

Apply that rule to bandwagaons and hunches alike – if there’s form, back it.
I have had more conviction with my hunches. I backed Sadio Mane the moment he arrived and, while it took me some weeks to acquire him, once he was in, he stayed in. We know how that worked out.

Similarly, I adopted his team-mate Dusan Tadic off the back of his impressive early season statistics and held him long enough to ride out that Gameweek 8 haul.

These were both major turning points in the season but behind all that, my conviction that Eden Hazard would eventually surpass Cesc Fabregas and faith in Branisalv Ivanovic, Diego Costa and early investment in Kane, meant that I ticked over.

I still bought Aleks Kolarov for one Gameweek – just as a Christmas treat.

Don’t beat yourself up about chasing points when signing form players you’ve missed.
For a few weeks, I thought I’d made the wrong decision on Fabregas but Hazard did, by Christmas, emerge as the better option.

I missed some opportunities but, in the main, I jumped on bandwagons around the right time and never really suffered from missing huge hauls.

Charlie Austin hurt me for a while – I was slow on that one, mainly because I felt that, eventually, he and QPR would be worked out. I was right to an extent, but I still missed out on some value hauls that would have probably benefited my season.

I’m not convinced I’ve learnt this lesson yet, then.

Don’t take unnecessary gambles with the captaincy in a bid to make ground.
I think this made an impact. The Gargatron tells me that I used just 10 different captains this time around, indicating that I’ve been more cautious.

For weeks I kept the armband with Diego Costa, lured in by his consistency. It hurt me on occasions and benefited me on others. Following his departure, I’ve largely turned to Sergio Aguero and Eden Hazard.

I think I’ve taken risks two or three times with the armband – it’s hard to say if that’s been a factor in the turnaround. Despite lacking the Luis Suarez option, I’ve been surprised that the captaincy has seemed to be a straightforward decision in the main. With Hazard around, it may well be even easier next season.

Sign dominant centre-backs who win headers
Sign full-backs if they have an outstanding statistic in their favour – normally, crosses or tackles.
These two combine and, in many ways, highlight how a subtle change in rules can change the FPL landscape.

For a good part of last season, I’d backed the attacking full-back over the dominant centre-back and was punished by the bonus system which clearly favoured the latter. I actually doubled on Southampton (Calum Chambers and Luke Shaw), only to eject that tactic when it was clear it was failing miserably.

A year on, the double Southampton full-back has undoubtedly been one of the key strategies when forming our defences. For a good portion of this season, having both Nathaniel Clyne and Ryan Bertrand proved a mini-league game changer.

Overall, the bonus point system was tweaked, raiding full-backs no longer suffered heavily from failed dribbles and, suddenly, there was bonus balance at the back.

I didn’t have to adjust my tactics – the FPL put things right on my behalf.

There’s the new lesson to consider: if there are rule changes for next season, don’t underestimate how they can influence our strategies – however subtle they appear to be.

Don’t be shy spending money on defenders if they also offer goal threat.
Defenders scored 104 goals last season, which has declined to 90 so far this term.

The Chelsea pairing of John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic have benefited most from their attacking menace at set-plays and, by owning the latter all season, I guess I put this one straight.

By prioritising full-backs last season, I turned my back on the points earned from set-piece threat. Given that Seamus Coleman and Leighton Baines have declined in goal output this season, there’s good reason to say that this has been more important than ever.

Arguably I made the right choice. Ivanovic has had that threat at set-plays, whilst also being an attacking full-back providing crosses. With Terry ageing, the Serb will be one of the first names in my 2015/16 squad.

If you think a player is injury prone, he’s likely to eventually live up to that tag.
I need to remind myself of this one over the summer: my Diego Costa habit almost de-railed my season at one point. Eventually, the Chelsea man repaid my faith but, at several stages, I questioned whether I was making a fatal error by holding him too long. I got away with it. Just.

I’ll resist Costa next season. I certainly won’t touch Daniel Sturridge.

Of course, as I also stated this time last year, every season hands us a set of different challenges that will ultimately decide the fate of our campaigns.

Sometimes single transfers like Mane and Tadic can make a major difference, sometimes it’s having conviction in a player like Ivanovic or Hazard that tips the balance. Alongside this, we have to enjoy some fortune – the right injuries at the right time, penalty saves, points from the bench. These can all conspire for and against us and sometimes, they just fall in place.

I’m not sure how much of my season has been down to this luck over my own judgment. I do know that it’s followed on from my worst ever campaign and that, in some ways, that may have helped. Perhaps this will come as some comfort to those who look on this season’s rank and flinch.

While I’ve spent this morning reflecting on the story of my own campaign, much of my focus today will be on the very top of the FPL rankings. Once again, we’re blessed with seeing members of our community competing for the top prize.

Simon March, aka “Dufflinks”, looks well placed to seal the title as he seeks to protect a 34-point lead. The likes of Kev Gleave, Jack Wain, Jon Sumner, Stuart Greenacre and AbuBakar Siddiq give chase – all either members of the FFS Leagues, posters on our pages or both.

It’s this that makes me most proud and convinces me that 2014/15 has been a season to savour.

I’ll be pre-ambling your way again in August.

Good luck to all.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

3,813 Comments Post a Comment
  1. #23
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Skretl or Van Aanholt first sub to Hazard?

    if chealsea without Hazard+Fab, good chance of clean sheet + attacking returns for Aanholt?

    1. Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Re Jon they'll still get beaten, tbh. I'd rather Skrtal, I think.

  2. South Bank FPL
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Cazorla to Mata for -4? Yes or no?

    Already done Giroud to Benteke and ML Final rival has taken a hit.

    Cheers

  3. FPL Daniel
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    So keep or sell Haz at the end?

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      no idea now but with news I am thinking of keeping

      seriously though it's difficult decision

    2. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Keeping

    3. Money Penny
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I'd keep

  4. thunder_mike
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Schmeichel
    Kol Skrtel Trippier
    Silva Ramsey Sanchez Mahrez
    Lukaku Kun(C) Giroud

    Myhill Grealish Bertie PVA

    Good to go or do I need to take a hit, thinking maybe Skrtel to Terry/Ivan, already on -4 tho. ML rival has taken a hit so it would only be -4 on him if I took another and currently 18pts ahead.

    1. Money Penny
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Don't take a hit for a defender - would need more than a clean sheet for it it to work. Just sit and hop skrtel does something... which he could well do. Clean sheet and goal maybe. Who knows

      1. thunder_mike
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers. Yeah just left it.

  5. LewanGOALski
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Henderson (stk):

    A. keep and start him
    B. start Boyd (avl) instead
    C. get rid for -4 - Punch / Mahrez / Sissoko / Young / Mirallas

    ??

    1. PGR
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      A

  6. CCaddy
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Any news on hazard yet?

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Yep

  7. GuillermoDickero
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    It seems odd starting Hazard. Obviously he might play, but at the same time he could come on for 10 minutes or something?

    1. Jimmers
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I can only see a 10 minute cameo.

    2. Sess!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Why would he get a cameo. Either starts or not involved at all.

      1. Jimmers
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        So he gets the 38 games?

  8. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Any images from Chelsea team arriving at SB?

    1. Mull
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      They're expected to be posted at 11:31 I hear 😉

  9. tim
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Terry Schlupp X

    A) Bruce

    B) Duff

    C) Vpa

    Or take a hit for Kolarov.

  10. Demel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Any reports (more than just speculation) over which Arsenal players may be rested?

    1. UCL Fantasy
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Nope

    2. Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Nah, not really. Consensus on here is that Özil might be the one to be rested. Possibly Ramsey. Unluckily for me, I have both... **want to do rolleyes icon here, ffs**

  11. Sol
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    1FT 0.ITB
    Myhill/Mignolet
    Wasi Terry Toby C.Dawson PVA
    Sanchez Cazorla Silva Hazard* Cork
    Giroud Kane Kun

    A) Giroud > Vardy

    B) Giroud C.Dawson > Vardy Smalling/ jammat -4

    Cheers

    1. Red Star Toro
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      A

      1. Red Star Toro
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        ulloa though IMO

  12. Red Star Toro
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    A) Kane -> Benteke (C) for free
    B) Kane, Hendo -> Lukaku (C), Young/Bolasie for -4

    1. Sol
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      A IMO good luck

  13. odannyboys
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Need to make up 40 points....sanchez or benteke?

    1. odannyboys
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      as captain

      1. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Both

    2. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Benteke

    3. Make United Great Again
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      40 points. Might be too late...

      But Benteke will be your best chance

    4. odannyboys
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Tekkers it is....with yaya. One last gamble.

  14. pundit of punts
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Any more on hazard or Arsenal starting XI this morning?

    Haven't made my transfers yet.

  15. BennyDizzle
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Making final decision now and need help.

    Young or Mata?

    And thank all of you for your help this year, see you next season 🙂

    1. Efan Ekoku Pops
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Mata. Can see Hull being reckless as they go for broke.

  16. Amateur Pundit Zan
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    I almost forgot to do my team this week due to sunday deadline. Had a moment of panic but luckily was 30 mins to go. I bet a few do it

  17. Koflok
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    -12 BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      what transfers did you make ?

    2. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Jafooli moves up another rank : cool:

    3. Mílanista
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Good man, reward yourself with a hit.

    4. Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Really?! 😮

  18. Make United Great Again
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Another Aguero explosion today

    1. Chenku╰☆╮
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      doubt it saints will want to end the season on a high too.

      1. Make United Great Again
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        They'll want to, but actually doing it is a different story.

        City are in good form, and I can see them winning comfortably, Southampton haven't been great on the road recently.

    2. Get up ya bum
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      going out on a limb there 😛

  19. Luis Suarez Ate My Homework
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    29 points ahead in my ML.

    Hazard > Silva for -4?

    Current team is:

    Schmeichel (Gilks)
    Skrtel Terry Bellerin
    Hazard Sanchez Cazorla Henderson
    Kane Aguero Benteke

    Subs: Cambiasso Yoshida Baird

    Thanks.

    1. Luis Suarez Ate My Homework
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Anybody? Need your advice!

      1. Jönny
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        All depends on your rival, really. Is Silva to cover them? If so, it MAY be worth it, but impossible to know without seeing their team too..

  20. Beautiful Game
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    18 points lead in the ml... Shall I play safe and play Sterling or take a hit to get Wally in place of him?

    My front 7:
    Sanchez, Ramsey, Sterling, Chadli
    Aguero, Giroud, Ulloa

    Rival's front 7:
    Sanchez, Ozil, Hazard, Silva
    Aguero, Giroud, Benteke

    1. Chenku╰☆╮
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      sterling and safe u gotta be kidding me.. the lad is a joke!!

    2. caio89
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Might as well get Walcott, I did and he's my captain as well.

  21. PGR
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Mata or Rooney? Best United option?

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      rooney

  22. SweeSwee
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Play Hazard or Kane?

    1. Chenku╰☆╮
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      play both..

  23. Snapes on a Plane
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Real quick!
    Pick one to bench out of:
    A)Jagielka
    B) Schlupp
    C) Koscielny

    1. Areid13
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Jags

  24. Areid13
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Keep Hazard or get silva and -4?

    1. Luis Suarez Ate My Homework
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      i'm wondering that myself. currently 29 points ahead in my ML. what you think?

      1. Areid13
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        I think I'll keep But then silva will probably do something

      2. Van Klinkert Delarosa
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        If your nearest rival took hit, you can afford a wiggle room.

      3. Chenku╰☆╮
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        it is a risk and can go either way.. silva is a good punt and will get some points for sure..

    2. caio89
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I did the latter

  25. Your Mum's Athletic
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    G2G? I've used my FT on Fab > Silva and don't want to take a hit with Philips being an okay replacement and protecting a 16 point lead in ML

    Schmeichel

    Ivanovic Koscielny Vlaar

    Hazard Silva Sanchez Cambiasso

    Aguero (C) Giroud Vardy

    Subs: Panti Phillips PVA Tob

    1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I would start Phillips over Cambiasso

  26. Amateur Pundit Zan
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Who to play
    Hutton (BUR) or sktrel (sto)

    1. Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I'd go the former.

    2. Cesc, Drogs & Rock and …
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Hutton.

    3. Amateur Pundit Zan
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Some replies 🙂
      Thanks guys thats what i was on but rmt had it the other way so wanted some validation

  27. Get up ya bum
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    cheers mark. great read as always.
    i'd be wary of that injury prone bit. its been a terrible idea to avoid sturridge, aguero, rvp etc. in the past.

  28. PMz
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Costa or aguero captain?

    1. SenjorBob
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      KUN

    2. Reedy
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Aguero 100%

      1. iCon
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Hey Reedy,

        Caz, Mahrez, Young or Milner to fill last midfield spot...can't decide

    3. Chenku╰☆╮
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      i am going costa... need a differential to finish top 10k. nothing to lose anyway..

  29. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Ameobi likely to start?

  30. Van Klinkert Delarosa
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    If you lead by 12 points and your rival took (-4) hit, would you do 1 hit for one of these :

    A. Morgan (differential)
    B. Wasilewski (block)
    C. Albrighton (block)