FPL – Player List Analysis – Budget Defenders

The Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is now exactly seven days old and our analysis of the player list turns to take a first look at defenders.

These players will play a vital role in our seasons. Two, or even three, budget defenders – perhaps operating in rotation – can free up valuable funds.

Clean sheets remain the core of a defender’s points, but there are other factors at play.

It’s important to consider FPL’s Bonus Point System (BPS), which is used to allocate extra points to players.

This will favour defenders who complete passes and crosses, make recoveries and clearances, blocks and interceptions (CBI), and win tackles.

Rotation pairings are also crucial for this position at the budget end of the market.

By switching two or three budget defenders according to fixtures, we can attempt to maximise the points potential from our backline.

Alongside goalkeepers, budget defenders are the key position when considering a rotation strategy.

We’ve discussed the basic principles involved in this article.

The 4.0 market

It’s currently impossible to find a defensive option that offers assured starts among the 4.0 price bracket. They just don’t exist.

However, as we saw with Swansea City’s Jordi Amat last season and Liverpool’s Joe Gomez in 2015/16, they can materialise for short spells.

Pre-season will be crucial in identifying these candidates, and injuries may yet unearth one or two options prior to August 11.

As it stands, many FPL managers will still look at a 4.0 target just as a means of liberating that precious 0.5 in loose change.

Swansea City’s Angel Rangel has already proved the top target here, claiming 18.7% ownership, even though he is unlikely to wrestle starts from the 4.5-priced Kyle Naughton.

AFC Bournemouth’s Brad Smith and Adrian Mariappa of Watford are also options, with the latter perhaps having the strongest opportunity to claim a starting role having featured heavily towards the end of last season following a run of injuries. He is also under a new manager in Marco Silva, who will have fresh ideas on the Hornets’ defensive line-up.

Burnley’s Kevin Long is another possibility. In the short-term, he could benefit from Michael Keane’s departure. However, James Tarkowski, at 4.5, is perhaps more likely to get the nod alongside Ben Mee, with Sean Dyche surely set to buy in this position.

Axel Tuanzebe of Manchester United is another possibility. But, by opting for him, you’re tying up a United slot and limiting your options elsewhere in your squad.

It pays to stick with the “unfashionable” sources of Fantasy talent when selecting bench fodder.

That could see us turn to the promoted teams and, early on, Uwe Hunemeier has attracted 8.1% ownership to rank second behind Rangel. The German started 11 matches for Brighton and Hove Albion last season, but is expected to be back-up to Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy, who are both priced at 4.5.

Up the bracket

While we may accept an inactive 4.0 player in defence, we need to stretch to 4.5 in order to get ourselves a guaranteed starter.

Looking at the early ownership levels, it’s the aforementioned Ben Mee that has earned the majority of attention. The Clarets’ centre-back has been snapped up by 13.6% as the most desirable of Dyche’s defence.

Mee was second only to Bournemouth’s Steve Cook for CBI last season but, despite that, he picked up just six bonus points.

Goalkeeper Tom Heaton dominated with 21 in the Burnley rearguard, but with Michael Keane departed, Mee may step up further and be even more dominant next season.

His credentials as a 4.5 option look sound, although Matt Lowton is also a consideration.

If you’re overlooking Heaton at 5.0, then one of that pair, with their opening home fixtures, appear worthy options even without Keane in the Clarets’ defence.

Clean home rotation is not an option for Burnley, with Chelsea their partner. But if we look beyond this, there are some other potential pairings.

We should immediately point out that if you’re willing to rotate a West Brom 5.0 option – either Craig Dawson or Gareth McAuley – then this looks a very strong avenue to explore.

The combination with Burnley would provide seven successive home fixtures to open the season (BOU WBA STO CPL WHM HUD WAT).

The issue here is that you’ll need to shell out for a 5.0 option and be willing to bench a West Brom defender who offers clear goal threat at set-pieces away from home. It’s a major blow that Allan Nyom was hiked to 5.0 this season. It leaves us hoping that new signing Ahmed Hegazi can gain regular starts as the only Baggies backline option at 4.5.

A Burnley defender could also be rotated with a Crystal Palace 4.5 option to offer an attractive opening burst (HUD WBA SWA CPL SOT HUD).

The partnership derails in Gameweek 7 with the choice of Everton away or a home tie with Manchester United, but then it gets back on track.

However, the weapon of choice in Frank de Boer’s Palace backline is far from clear. We need more of the pre-season to discover the pecking order and we will be relying on starts for either James Tomkins or Martin Kelly.

Stoke City perhaps provide a better option alongside Burnley (eve WBA wba CPL new HUD SOU WHU BOU NEW), with Geoff Cameron the player to monitor.

The American international was favoured in central midfield by Mark Hughes last season, though with Darren Fletcher now at the Potters, his starting role is far from assured while Stoke retain a back four.

The impending signing of Kurt Zouma on loan muddies the water still further.

Phil Bardsley and Glen Johnson are alternative 4.5 candidates for the Potters, although they may rotate over the season.

The promoted teams play a major role in this price bracket, with Newcastle United and Brighton both supplying strong candidates.

De Andre Yedlin and Jamaal Lascelles have picked up ownership (5.3% and 3.6%) and are arguably the most assured starters in Rafa Benitez’s defence.

Lascelles edges it, with Benitez perhaps likely to rotate at full-back. Much depends on his pre-season tactics, however, with the possibility of Yedlin deployed as a wing-back in a 3-4-3. That would also bring new signing Florian Lejeune into the equation.

Newcastle pair up with Leicester City to offer 38 successive home matches, although the fixtures are far from favourable, forcing us to consider away ties early on (TOT BHA WHM swa STO bha bou WBA CPL brn)

With Danny Simpson available for 4.5, there’s a clear duo on offer. However, Foxes boss Craig Shakespeare could consider Harry Maguire for right-back to scupper those plans. Wes Morgan is also priced at 4.5 and with Robert Huth (5.0) sidelined for the season openers following ankle surgery, his stock has improved.

Swansea City provide another able partner for early Newcastle’s fixtures and, in the aforementioned Naughton, they do provide a secure starter at 4.5 – if you’re willing to overlook Alfie Mawson’s goal potential at 5.0 and are ignoring Lukasz Fabianski (4.5) in goal.

A Lascelles/Naughton partnership offers a very solid opening ten Gameweeks (sot hud WHM NEW STO WAT whm HUD CPL brn).

Goal threat and CBI potential mean that Lewis Dunk is the most attractive candidate in the Brighton defence, although we have to hope that his disciplinary record improves – 12 bookings last season is a concern.

The Seagulls partner with Huddersfield Town to offer clean home rotation. Christopher Schindler is perhaps the more assured starter, though centre-back partner Michael Hefele has the far greater goal threat and would be our choice to accompany Dunk.

Chris Lowe is also an attacking option for the Terriers, but he’s now under threat from new signing Scott Malone.

Bournemouth’s Simon Francis could also be paired with Dunk.

The Cherries’ skipper faces a battle for his starting role following Nathan Ake’s arrival but, if he overcomes that, he has to be a consideration for those turning down the attacking appeal of Ake and Daniels in the 5.0 bracket.

Working with a Brighton man, he offers a decent opening ten Gameweeks (wba WAT wat WBA BHA NEW LEI EVE sto SOT).

Up until West Ham’s re-arranged fixture with Southampton was announced, the Hammers provided perfect home rotation with Watford – two clubs that also serve up 4.5 defensive options.

They could be considered here, although we need pre-season to decipher Marco Silva’s plans.

Sebastian Prodl may emerge as a possibility, though Younes Kaboul fares better in the BPS when fit and selected. New signing Kiko Femenia also requires monitoring.

For West Ham, Angelo Ogbonna looks more assured of starts than James Collins, although that will depend on Slaven Bilic running with a three-man defence and that is far from certain.

Everton’s Cuco Martina is a new consideration as a potential one-stop shop at the 4.5 price point.

Manager Ronald Koeman has been re-acquainted with the former Southampton right-back who provides cover for the injured Seamus Coleman. We would now expect Martina to get the nod over the inexperienced Mason Holgate and Jonjoe Kenny. However, Everton’s evil early fixtures are a major deterrent.

Nonetheless, a rotation pair with Lascelles, in particular, appears to be an effective ploy while Coleman remains sidelined and if Holgate and Kenny are kept out of the frame.

Our current appraisal of this price bracket has us leaning towards a series of assured starters.

Mee/Lowton with Dunk and Naughton appear the most likely, with a Lascelles/Yedlin combination also in the mix. Francis is also another candidate for those willing to overlook the 5.0 Cherries.

If you’re looking to risk saving funds with a 4.0 option and two premium defenders, you’ll be limited to a two-way rotation.

Extending to three and forgoing the 4.0 defender is certainly a solution to explore.

Burnley and Dunk don’t work particularly well as a pair but, if you factor in Naughton, we’re given a very reasonable single fixture to work with two heavy-hitters (Sot WBA wat WBA bou HUD whm HUD whm NEW).

Similarly, we can look to Mee, Lascelles and Francis to get (wba WBA WHM CPL STO HUD LEI WHM CPL NEW). Or Naughton, Lascelles and Francis to get (wba WAT WHM NEW BHA WAT LEI HUD CPL brn).

As a side note, if you’re looking for further reading on three-way rotation, I heartily recommend Peter Blake’s early pre-season work here.

As the pre-season develops and as further moves in the transfer market transpire, our thinking in this area will surely shift.

In particular, we need to monitor Cameron’s stock over the summer, along with Hughes’ preferred right-back. That could open up a very favourable three-way rotation with Francis and Naughton.

Equally, the defensive selections from De Boer, Silva and Bilic look vital.

Palace, in particular, not only work well with the Burnley options, but they are also a component of several attractive three-way rotations.