FPL Player List Analysis – Budget Midfielders

Having assessed the Goalkeepers, budget defenders, mid-price defenders and premium defenders, our series of articles focussing on the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) player list continues as we shift to look at the bottom end of the midfield market.

In this lower bracket, our options are somewhat limited either due to a lack of regular starters or dearth of attacking talent.

Typically, a budget-friendly pick with a security of starts can be key and help free up cash to spend big elsewhere, while coming off the bench when the auto-subs come into play.

Yet in recent seasons, we’ve also witnessed certain cut-price individuals emerge as key assets for our starting XIs – Riyad Mahrez and Josh King served up 240 points and 178 points in 2015/16 and 2016/17 respectively.

The 4.5 bracket

Initially, our pool of regular starters at this price point seems limited.

Crystal Palace pair Ruben Loftus-Cheek and James McArthur are the most popular picks at 4.5, residing in 15.6% and 10.8% of squads respectively.

Of the two, Loftus-Cheek seems the likeliest to justify that popularity. Having arrived on loan from Chelsea, he’s been named in the first XI in both of the previous two friendlies, while McArthur has failed to feature as rumours gather of a move away from Selhurst Park.

However, Loftus-Cheek’s minutes could be dependent on Frank De Boer’s use of fellow budget midfielder – Luka Milivojevic (5.0).

He has been shifted to the role of right-sided centre-back in the last two summer fixtures, allowing Loftus-Cheek his starts alongside skipper Jason Puncheon (also 5.0) in central midfield in De Boer’s 3-4-3 formation.

If Palace sign another recruit at centre-back – with Arsenal’s Calum Chambers reportedly a top target – then Milivojevic could oust Loftus-Cheek in the Eagles’ engine room.

There’s a clear risk if you dare to look to Loftus-Cheek as a fourth midfielder. Palace’s opening schedule could also be a lot kinder, too. In terms of attacking potential, their first eight matches (HUD liv SWA bur SOT mci mun CHE) are ranked second toughest of any team according to our Fixture Ticker.

Despite that, as a fifth midfield option, Loftus-Cheek’s owners will likely be content to hold until we have clarity on his position in De Boer’s pecking order.

Southampton’s Oriol Romeu (4.5%) and Swansea City’s Tom Carroll (4.3%) are next in line for ownership. Both appear almost certain starters, though they have previously offered little in the way of attacking threat.

The former netted once in 35 outings last season, while Carroll supplied a goal and two assists in 18 appearances for the Swans after arriving in the January transfer window.

The future of Gylfi Sigurdsson will impact on Carroll’s potential and could yet strengthen his case as the top pick at this price.

Carroll was handed set-piece duties due to the playmaker’s absence from the club’s US tour, but it remains to be seen whether he would retain them if Sigurdsson earns his mooted move to Everton. Manager Paul Clement will surely be expected to scour the market for a like-for-like replacement should Sigurdsson exit. Even so, Carroll still has the edge over team-mate Roque Mesa (0.8%) at this price.

Watford’s summer signing from Chelsea, Nathaniel Chalobah, claims a 2.4% ownership and, having been used sparingly at first, he has now started the last two friendlies and completed 90 minutes against Aston Villa on Saturday. He is clearly another contender in this bracket if – as expected – he cements starts in Marco Silva’s line-up.

Elsewhere, Bournemouth’s Lewis Cook is perhaps another to monitor.

He started each of the last three Gameweeks of 2016/17 and earned an assist in the final fixture. Eddie Howe’s side are likely to remain among the more expansive sides in the Premier League, and Cook should be granted more opportunities.

The 5.0 bracket

Although there are more secure starters on offer at the 5.0 price point, in terms of attacking potential, our current options remain thin on the ground.

Dead-ball duties have significantly boosted the potential of the aforementioned Luka Milivojevic. The Serbian claims penalty kicks for Palace and has a share of set-pieces, too – he’s already grabbed a goal and assist over the summer.

Identically priced, team-mate Jason Puncheon is an assured starter and could retain corner kicks, while forgotten man Bakary Sako is another to track – he has also notched over the summer and has been utilised in the front three in a 3-4-3. De Boar is yet to settle on his preferred option alongside Christian Benteke and Wilfried Zaha.

We have high hopes for Stoke City winger Ramadan Sobhi, who could profit from the exit of Marko Arnautovic and improve upon last season’s pair of assists. The Egyptian has been lining up in the attacking midfield three slots and supplied an assist in the previous friendly against Southend United.

However, the Potters’ new arrival Darren Fletcher is also priced at 5.0 and is a more secure option, albeit in an anchor role in front of their defence.

Leicester City’s Wilfred Ndidi cannot be overlooked. He ranked second for total attempts to Riyad Mahrez (31 to 34) after arriving in January and boasted a decent close-range threat, too, firing 18 efforts in the box to the Algerian’s 19. Clashes with Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool in the first six means only 0.5% have so far invested.

Bournemouth’s Harry Arter started 33 times last term and is certainly a secure pick. Granted, a goal and four assists is far from eye-catching, but it’s worth noting that the Ireland international placed second for both shots and key passes for Eddie Howe’s side in 2016/17.

Newcastle United’s Christian Atsu is a far more attacking alternative and has attracted a 1.7% ownership thus far. However, Jacob Murphy’s arrival from Norwich City seems set to consign the former Chelsea man to a job-sharing role on the Magpies’ flank as part of Rafa Benitez’ rotation policy.

Rolando Aarons is in much the same situation. He’s priced at just 4.5 and has sparkled in pre-season but will need to go on impressing if he is to establish a secure starting role under Benitez.

In terms of ownership, Chelsea’s N’Golo Kante is the most popular midfielder on offer at 5.0 and sits in 14.8% of squads. But there seems little upside to acquiring the Frenchman, who registered one goal and one assist last season.

He deprives us of one of our three potentially precious Chelsea slots, with the same logic applying to his team-mate Tiemoue Bakayoko. Meanwhile, Nemanja Matic looks destined to a move to Old Trafford, though again, it’s questionable whether a Man United slot should be tied up with a defensive midfielder.

The same applies for Emre Can at Liverpool, along with Spurs quartet Eric Dier, Victor Wanyama, Harry Winks and Moussa Dembele. However, they are among the most popular options in this bracket as Fantasy managers clamour for coverage of the “bigger teams”.

The 5.5 Bracket

Our search for attack-minded regulars is afforded a greater degree of optimism at this level.

The 2016/17 early season phenomenon – Watford’s Etienne Capoue – is currently the most popular pick with 8.2% ownership. Mainly utilised in the central support role over the summer – though he has occasionally dropped deep to accommodate new boy Will Hughes – the Frenchman has been handed a share of free-kicks by Silva and has already found the net over the Hornets’ friendlies.

However, there is one major new caveat.

Reports suggest that Capoue has had a major falling out with his new head coach following the recent behind-closed-doors friendly with Rangers. The Frenchman was duly absent from Silva’s line-up for Saturday’s 0-0 stalemate with Villa.

Another of last season’s budget bandwagons – Stoke City’s Joe Allen could emerge as the standout at this price point.

Currently part of 5.5% of squads, the Welshman supplied six goals and three assists from an attacking midfield berth last season, though he was also shifted into his natural defensive central role a little too often for our liking. Mark Hughes’ recent experiment with a 3-4-2-1 indicates that Allen may again be shackled behind two more advanced midfielders – perhaps Shaqiri and possibly Sobhi – an aforementioned 5.0 option.

If Bojan – also priced at 5.5 – can somehow acquire one of those attacking roles, he could be reborn as an option to overshadow both Allen and Sobhi.

However, Stoke’s attacking potential is damaged by a testing opening spell. They are ranked bottom in our Fixture Ticker over the first eight Gameweeks, with ties against Everton, Arsenal, West Brom, Man United, Chelsea, Southampton and Man City over that run.

With three goals and nine assists in 28 appearances, we currently see Bournemouth’s Ryan Fraser as a stronger candidate and perhaps the prime pick in this bracket.

Handed a share of corners and set-pieces, his average of 55.2 minutes per key pass was quicker than any team-mate in 2016/17. The Scot started just four of the final eight Gameweeks due to an ongoing Achilles issue but, if fully-fit, he clearly has the backing of manager Howe, who has even stated that he is the Cherries’ answer to Eden Hazard. Fraser played 90 minutes in today’s friendy defeat to Valencia.

Brighton pair Pascal Gross and Izzy Brown are cheaper than team-mate Anthony Knockaert (6.0), last season’s Championship Player of the Year.

Gross is currently the safer and stronger option in our opinion. He’s likely to be on set-pieces and arrives as the number one for key passes in each of the last two seasons in the Bundesliga. The German is expected to be handed the central support role for Chris Hughton’s side and has some decent fixtures from Gameweek 2-6 to (lei wat WBA bou NEW) to get up and running.

Gross’ output could ultimately rely on Knockaert’s fitness with the Frenchman currently an injury doubt for Gameweek 1. Meanwhile, Brown’s role is unclear, with his versatility offering manager Chris Hughton a number of options, although he warrants monitoring.

Burnley duo Jon Walters and Robbie Brady have both scored twice over the summer period, with the former also bagging an assist since switching from Stoke.

Of the two, the unglamorous Walters looks the likeliest starter and totals of 140 and 141 points in 2011/12 and 2012/14 for the Potters suggest a move to Turf Moor could reignite his potential.

Brady, meanwhile, was named in the teamsheet just seven times after arriving from Norwich City last January. Nonetheless, he could claim set-pieces if he can cement a spot in Sean Dyche’s starting XI. Brady’s 42.1 minutes per chance created was quicker than any team-mate last term, while his 37.7 minutes per shot was ranked top among Clarets’ midfielders.

Huddersfield Town’s Aaron Mooy dominates set-pieces and also took their final two penalties in last season’s Championship. Despite being stationed in the double-pivot, he still managed four goals and seven assists, creating 102 scoring chances for team-mates and could still outscore Kasey Palmer. The latter returns to the Terriers on loan from Chelsea and could claim a central support berth in a 4-2-3-1, though – he delivered four goals and three assists last season.

Investment in David Wagner’s attacking options looks risky, however, given that they struggled for a cutting edge even in gaining promotion. The Terriers found the net just 56 times in 46 matches, a tally bettered by 13 other Championship sides.

Leicester City wingers Marc Albrighton and Demarai Gray will look to push on in Craig Shakespeare’s first full season at the helm. While Gray’s minutes seem destined to be determined by the future of Riyad Mahrez, Albrighton looks the secure pick – he started 11 of the new manager’s 13 matches in charge and delivered two goals and five assists over that run. There’s clear value to be had if he can maintain that output.

Newcastle United pair Jonjo Shelvey and the aforementioned Jacob Murphy are handed one of the most encouraging opening schedules, facing Huddersfield, West Ham, Swansea, Stoke and Brighton from Gameweek 2-6.

Shelvey looks the most secure pick in the double-pivot and – despite dead-ball duties – produced a shot every 36 minutes and key pass every 38 minutes in 2016/17. But new boy Murphy is a temptation.

He has been quick to make an impact, netting twice on his debut, though it’s Matt Ritchie – with set-pieces and penalties – who is our favoured Magpies’ midfielder is priced at just 0.5 more. As stated, Murphy could also be prone to rotation with Atsu.

Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse also boasts an outstanding first few fixtures, with Saints up against just one of last season’s top nine in the first 11 Gameweeks.

When on the pitch, the England U21 man was involved in – scored or assisted – 38.1% of his side’s goals last term, more than the pricier Dusan Tadic (28.6%) and Nathan Redmond (21.5%) who are both 6.5.

If he can cement a regular role under new manager Mauricio Pellegrino, Ward-Prowse – who delivers some unplayable dead-ball deliveries – could hit the ground running to provide an enticing 5.5 candidate.

England U21 team-mate Ademola Lookman is another starlet who is expected to kick-on in 2017/18. Everton’s 19-year-old will hope for more opportunities but could yet be frustrated as Ronald Koeman’s continues to spend his transfer warchest. Already Everton’s options in Lookman’s position may well keep him on the periphery.

Reclassified as an FPL midfielder this time around, Chris Brunt’s set-pieces will remain a key weapon for a West Brom side that were second only to Chelsea for goals scored from set-pieces last season.

With competition for places remaining fierce on the flanks, though, the Irishman’s pitch time will need to be monitored ahead of five strong fixtures (BOU STK bha WHU WAT) in the opening seven. He’s also currently nursing a knee injury sustained in Saturday’s friendly defeat to Bristol Rovers.

West Ham’s Mark Noble will be hoping to retain spot-kicks after the arrival of striker Javier Hernandez. The Hammers’ skipper has bagged a reasonable ten goals in the last two seasons, but with a host of mid-price team-mates in the attacking midfield roles, he’s likely to struggle for our attention. His start could also be under threat as the season progresses.

In a similar situation to the 5.0 bracket, there is a handful of defensive midfield options available amongst the top six. Opting for the likes of Arsenal’s Granit Xhaka and Alex Iwobi, Man United’s Ander Herrera, Liverpool’s Jordan Henderson or Man City’s Ilkay Gundogan would take up one of their respective teams’ three slots and seems unwise.

Gundogan is the clear standout candidate of this crop – three goals and an assist in 10 outings earned the German 4.1 points per match in his debut campaign prior to his injury.

Pep Guardiola’s inevitable rotation policy is always a concern, though we know from recent comments that the Spaniard has high regard for Gundogan. He is certainly one to track, though having been burned in 2016/17 by an accelerating transfer bandwagon, Fantasy managers will need winning over.

Iwobi’s potential should also be watched in light of the continuing speculation surrounding Alexis Sanchez’ future at the Emirates. The Nigerian could gain more pitch time should the Chilean depart, though Arsenal’s protracted interest in Monaco’s Thomas Lemar could ultimately shut down his potential once again.