Market Forces – Gameweek 5

Another eventful Gameweek comes to a close, handing us possibly the biggest transfer bandwagon of the season so far.

Paul Pogba’s injury setback fuelled much market activity before the deadline, but that could pale in significance when compared with the return to prominence of an overlooked Fantasy legend.

This Gameweek, 7,142,233 total transfers were made – only a slight drop on the 7,863,661 last time out – suggesting that a high proportion of managers are very much involved with their squads and driving the current trends.

Continuing our series of weekly articles, we at whogottheassist.com are reviewing and commenting on behaviours in the Fantasy Premier League market place, looking at common themes and giving our view on the viability of the transfers taking place.

King Kun returns…

After a 20-point haul served notice of Sergio Aguero’s continued ability to strike fear into the hearts of both defences and non-owning Fantasy managers, Kun has returned to prominence with a bang.

Almost written off as playing second fiddle to Gabriel Jesus at the beginning of the season, the auto-captain of old has surely never scored such a huge tally while owned by so few.

Only 10% (he was in around 500,000 teams) were savvy enough to keep the faith with the Argentinian ahead of the trip to Watford.

A flurry of transfers has followed as FPL managers fall over themselves to work Aguero into their squads.

He’s already restored to his starting price of 11.5, having suffered a fall to 11.4 in the first few Gameweeks, with another overnight hike on the cards.

In the last 24 hours alone, we’ve seen more than 195,000 new managers swoop, with all manner of premium forwards – Romelu Lukaku, Roberto Firmino, Harry Kane and, to a lesser extent Alvaro Morata – all making way.

In some cases his strike partner Gabriel Jesus has been the makeweight, with almost 18,000 making an awkward and perhaps ill-fated sideways shuffle.

Both Kane (who recently rose back to 12.5 ahead of the “gimme” that never was against Swansea City) and Firmino (now 8.7) were recent bandwagons which seem to have been derailed by their own failings and the rise of Aguero.

Again, this demonstrates how fickle the market can be: one week’s hero becomes the next week’s zero.

However, the Lukaku sales are perhaps the most interesting factor.

Over 45,000 managers have now sold the United striker for his City rival, either before or even following the Belgian’s return of 12 points (goal, assist, max bonus) against his former club Everton.

Lukaku was also shedding owners prior to Sunday’s haul, with more than 101,000 moving him on ahead of Friday’s deadline.

The Belgian’s consistency – he’s now scored five in five – and huge ownership (still at over 50%) should obviously be considered prior to his sale, but we’re seeing many a manager blinded by the explosive potential of Aguero.

Perhaps Jose Mourinho’s comments suggesting that Lukaku has lost penalty duties is a factor. Maybe United’s disappointing performance on Sunday is another. Only time will tell if a switch from Lukaku to Aguero will pay off, but there’s no doubting the risk involved.

…and so does his assister

Another man to return to prominence is the diminutive wizard David Silva, whose 11 points at Watford would have delighted his near-150,000 new Gameweek 5 owners.

Silva was a major beneficiary of sales of Paul Pogba, with 60,818 of his new managers swapping him in for the Frenchman.

Our memories of sepia-tinged seasons past were reanimated in watching City’s display against the Hornets.

Silva’s pair of assists – he’s up to four for the season – supplied Aguero’s second goal and also a first of the season for Nicolas Otamendi (another to rise in price). Throughout Saturday’s display, Silva’s silky, string-pulling performance, reminded us of his qualities and hinted at a new potency as an FPL asset.

Now at 8.3 (0.3 up from a kind starting price of 8.0), if he’s able to build on this start he may also prove to be an irresistible force to sit alongside a City striker in our squads.

Many already think so: 168,000+ have brought in Silva since Friday’s deadline, no doubt hoping that the Spaniard will fill his boots in Gameweek 6’s fixture against a struggling Crystal Palace.

Speaking of assisters…

Armenian playmaker Henrikh Mkhitaryan also continues to see his ownership flourish.

He recorded a first goal of the season on Sunday, rewarding 317,647 new owners ahead of Gameweek 5. Of those, a total of 185,996 were straight swaps from his stricken team-mate Pogba.

Another 76,000+ Pogba owners have also swapped in Mkhitaryan following Sunday’s nine-point return.

Mkhitaryan is the first player to have risen a full 0.5 from his starting price – giving his early adopters a 0.2 in selling value – and he is only the second player to earn more than a million transfers since the start of the season, along with defender Ahmed Hegazi at West Brom.

Gross rush puts Ritchie in the shade

Following up on his astonishing 18-point haul versus West Brom, Brighton playmaker Pascal Gross was on hand to supply the assist for Solly March at Bournemouth on Friday night.

Despite the fact that his side went down 2-1, he still accrued a couple of bonus points to move into fourth in the midfield standings.

With blanks for many of the past flavours of the week in his price bracket – Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Richarlison, Jese and Aaron Mooy spring to mind – Gross’ second week of returns has excited FPL managers. Some 84,475 have picked him up in the last 24 hours and more than 150,000 have brought him in since Friday’s tally.

Some have seen an immediate return from making the direct switch from Pogba, with 23,559 swapping to him ahead of Gameweek 5, and 31,000+ taking that route since.

Gross’ returns appear to have blinded managers to another stand-out performer in the same bracket.

Newcastle United’s Matt Ritchie, who has assisted in the past four matches in all competitions, has enjoyed only modest interest. Mrre than 69,000 have brought him in, just over a third of the 182,000 who have turned to Brighton’s Gross.

Now valued at 5.6, having risen overnight, it could be that the minor difference in price (0.3 now) is causing the disparity.

(Limited) wind in Lascelles

Staying with the Magpies, their captain Jamaal Lascelles rose to 4.6 in the early hours.

Despite his match-winning goal last week against Swansea City, the centre-back attracted only 66,329 new owners ahead of Gameweek 5, surprisingly lagging behind his defensive team-mates Jesus Gamez (72,879), Ciaran Clark (75,847) and keeper Rob Elliot (104,125).

After scoring his second goal in two outings, though, we have seen him shoot to prominence, with 158,000+ bringing him in ahead of Gameweek 6.

More than 19,000 have downgraded the suspended David Luiz to the Magpies’ skipper.

However, there could be a natural cap in the interest Lascelles will generate, with the availability of 4.0/4.1 options from Newcastle in the form of Chancel Mbemba and bargain-bucket keeper Rob Elliot.

Those two are again picking up interest, with more than 63,000+ turning to Mbemba after his unexpected outing against Stoke City, and almost 38,000+ acquiring Elliot in goal ahead of a Gameweek 6 trip to Brighton.

Will he Otamendi a Luiz-shaped hole?

A final mention goes to the rise of Argentine brawler-cum-defender Nicolas Otamendi, who is picking up traffic off the back of his 12-point goal and clean sheet haul at Watford.

Over 118,000 have acquired his services so far as he picks up significant owners from Luiz’s suspension – almost 33,000 have brought him in as a direct swap for the banned Chelsea defender.

Otamendi has demonstrated a surprising goal threat: a post denied him a first goal at Bournemouth before his strike against Watford. Indeed, only Marcos Alonso can better his seven shots on goal so far among defenders.

But with Vincent Kompany nearing a return, we can’t yet rule out Guardiola’s rotation policy and a first stint on the bench. Given our experience with Ben Davies in Gameweek 5, there is perhaps a need for caution.

Conclusion

The return of Aguero and his sidekick Silva have definitely shaken things up, with many managers no doubt coming to the realisation that City can no longer be ignored.

It’s true that the early template had overlooked City due to Guardiola’s inconsistent teamsheets, but there are now two factors at play.

For one, the City boss appears to be reducing the severity of his rotation – certainly, that’s in evidence to this point. Secondly, his attacking options have proved their ability to blow through teams in such explosive fashion that their potential returns perhaps outweigh any risks at play.

The market continues to revolve, with little sign of order being restored as yet. This is highlighted by Firmino and Kane’s fall from grace, alongside a conveyor belt of mid-price midfielders that shift in and out of favour.

Before Gameweek 5 we saw 223,767 Wildcards played. However, we wonder if, with a shift in fixtures for Chelsea, Everton and Man City approaching, coupled with the latter’s red-hot form, if that number might be surpassed this week.

This could cause another dramatic change in the market, with some assets suddenly commanding a much larger ownership base. Wildcard purchases do not count toward price rises/falls – but they could certainly influence trends to come, depending on whether the popular targets fire or fail.

Either way, expect more turbulence as we move out of the first five Gameweeks and things perhaps begin to settle, with template squads firming up.