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What The Fixtures and Form Say – Gameweek 10 Captaincy

This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.

Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.

Before I take a look at Gameweek 10’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.

REFINING THE ODDS

For this method, I take the top six most popular captaincy options (according to the current FFScout Captain Poll) and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.

Additionally, I have added a ‘goals conceded H/A’ column to take into account a respective fixtures defensive record. For example, Arsenal face Swansea at home this weekend, so for this we look at how many goals the Welsh side have shipped on their last four road trips. This will hopefully give a more balanced look at the fixture table and to give a potential insight on how certain teams are shaping up home/away.

I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away points per game (PPG) but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of two players are the same. The home and away PPG will take into account the last four Home or Away fixtures that player has featured in.

The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.

SUCCESS

What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll.

Last year’s season review can be found via this link.

Success will be defined as:

  • Explosive = 10+ points
  • Success = 7-9 points
  • Average = 4-6 points
  • Fail = no attacking returns

Let’s take a look at Gameweek 10’s results…..

Form

RankPlayerTotal PPGGoalsAssistsH-PPGA-PPG
1.Aguero11.75637.2510*
2.Kane11615.510
3.Coutinho7212.5**8.3*
4.Richarlison6.75233.56.25
5.Sanchez6134*5*
6.Salah4.75206.254.25

*Indicates 3 available games

** Indicates 2 available games

Fixtures

RankPlayerFixtureGoals Conceded TotalGoals conceded H/ABig chances concededShots in the box concededTotal
1.RicharlisonStoke (H)141163970
2.AgueroWest Brom (A)6363853
3KaneManchester United (A)2082737
4.5CoutinhoHuddersfield (H)7432236
4.5SalahHuddersfield (H)7432236
6.SanchezSwansea (H)5152031

Results

RankPlayerFormFixtureTotal
1.Aguero123
2.5Richarlison415
2.5Kane235
4.Coutinho34.57.5
5.Salah64.510.5
6.Sanchez5611

Taking form and fixture indicators into account, Sergio Aguero is the most likely to deliver attacking returns according to this method.

The Argentine tops the form table and has six goals and three assists in his last four appearances, giving him a total PPG of 11.75. He has an impressive away PPG of 10, although this is only from three available games’ worth of data.

It is also worth pointing out that a start this weekend away to West Brom is far from certain, as he played the full 120 minutes in the league cup against Wolverhampton midweek and City travel to Napoli next week in the Champions League.

Should he start the Baggies backline should be obliging, given they have conceded six times and allowed opponents 38 shots in the box in the last four Gameweeks.  While Tony Pulis’ troops only conceded three times in their four home games, these  were on paper easy ties (WAT, WHM, STO, BOU),  so it could be argued that they haven’t come across a potent attacking force in the shape of Pep’s men thus far. In addition, the Baggies were humbled 4-0 by the Sky Blues in this fixture last season.

Richarlison is the surprise package that finishes joint second this week and offers up a classic form vs fixture debate. The Hornets star only finishes fourth in the form table despite registering an impressive 6.75 PPG with two goals and three assists in the last four Gameweeks. His 3.5 home PPG is a slight concern for FPL managers. However, this week he faces a Stoke side that have shipped eight goals in their last four games and a staggering 12 goals in their last quartet of road trips – although it must be pointed out that seven of these were against Manchester City. The Potters have also conceded 39 shots in the box in the last four games and the Brazilian offers a strong captaincy option this week according to these results.

Clean sheet potential table

RankTeam
1.Man City
2.Arsenal
3.Manchester United
4.Tottenham
5.Chelsea

 

75 Comments Post a Comment
  1. southernpacific
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Stuck on ideas..

    0.1 itb and 1ft

    Forster Elliott

    Suttner Fernandez Simpson 4.0 4.0

    Hazard Coutinho Silva 4.5 4.5

    Kun jesus lukaku

    I want Richarlison but don’t know how to downgrade?

    1. rokonto
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 days ago

      Same here... want richarlison but who to downgrade from slash. coutinho. Silva.sterling?

      1. rokonto
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 days ago

        *salah

    2. rokonto
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 days ago

      I'd out hazard.. too pricey.. free up funds

    3. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 days ago

      I would be tempted to downgrade (better yet, switch) one of your forwards.

      Problem is which of the City two to keep this week. Maybe wait on that? Say Firmino performs well this GW, he could be a decent shout for their upcoming fixtures.

      Honestly, I don't believe Hazard is worth his price tag YET. There is potential for him to get hauls, but he is very much a home-body.

      So, if anything, those are your two downgrades. Your defence and midfield is really hurting due to your front line.

    4. jca
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 days ago

      Richarlson for Hazard and Kane for Luk or Jesus and use funds to upgrade to a city defender or upgrade 4.5 midfield.

  2. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 days ago

    Wildcard Team thoughts?

    DDG / Elliot
    Otamendi / Ward / K. Femenia / Duffy / Hunemeier
    Salah / Sterling / Richarlison / Gross / Carroll
    Kane / Aguero / Morata

    The above currently leaves me with 0.3 ITB. Unless Daniels falls to 4.8 this week (I am not sure any more), I cannot do Duffy > Daniels. I think I have two decent options to manage this, if I come up short:

    A) Duffy > Daniels & Ward > Mee
    B) Duffy > Daniels & Sterling > Pedro

    The mid-week City games have got me worried a bit - not enough to remove both of my attacking assets, though. I'll keep Kun, because he's Kun. However, is Sterling > Pedro worth a 1 week punt? It could backfire if Sterling plays/rises, or Pedro does start/perform - but Bournemouth -should- be a game in which Chelsea score well.

    Also, given Olsson's Swansea injury, how about:

    C) Hunemeier > Rangel

    It's a tad annoying that he is highly owned for a 3.9-er, but could be useful if he plays. (Might have to wait for the pressers.)

  3. LegendFrankie
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 days ago

    Thoughts;

    Elliot
    Davies-Cedric-Fonte
    Eriksen-Decoure-Sterling-Salah
    Kane-Diuof-Jesus

    Gomes-Gross-Kiko-Gamez

    Have my doubts with Sterling...

  4. Karan14
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 days ago

    Would be interesting to see if you could tell where does Morata rank if he was included?