The Watchlist Updated – Forwards

This evening, we conclude our series of Watchlist articles assessing targets to consider over the next four-to-six Gameweeks.

With the goalkeepers, defenders and midfielders already featured, we end with analysis of the forward options.

That’s quite fitting on the day that Harry Kane’s hamstring injury was revealed, shifting the landscape for this position once again.

The Watchlist rankings can be found in your sidebar on desktop, or via your slide-in menu on mobile or tablet.

These highlight our current thinking on player selection for each position, listing the factors behind each player’s given rank.

With Kane’s injury, it’s fair to say that we enter another mini-crisis when it comes to viable heavy-hitter options in attack.

The Spurs striker had clearly emerged as the undisputed front-runner until today’s revelation.

Sunday’s goals against Liverpool were his fourth brace in the last six Gameweeks and, having banished his Wembley league hoodoo, he had climbed to the summit of the Fantasy Premier League standings.

Kane remains head and shoulders above the chasing pack for almost every key statistic – he’s top for shots (57), efforts in the box (38), attempts on target (21) and goals, having found the net on eight occasions.

However, we obviously have to re-assess our options in light of today’s news.

The injury is described as minor at this stage, with a potential return for Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League tie with Real Madrid mooted. If this is the case, we would expect Kane to be present and correct for a Gameweek 11 home fixture with Crystal Palace.

That remains crucial to his prospects and it’s the reason why we have not only kept him preserved in our rankings, we also award him a high placing in our ladder. We will certainly revise that following a pessimistic update from Mauricio Pochettino ahead of the Madrid tie on Tuesday.

The Kane setback ensures that, against the odds, Romelu Lukaku returns to top spot in our reckoning.

No goals in the last two ahead of back-to-back matches with Spurs and Chelsea has persuaded over 270,000 to part company with the Belgian.

And yet the Manchester United striker remains a very consistent source of points, delivering returns in seven of the first nine Gameweeks.

His security of starts and pitch-time – as one of only two forwards to have played every minute so far – is surely the key factor behind his appeal. It may well convince many of his owners to retain his services until fixtures turn back in his favour from Gameweek 12 (NEW BRI wat) onwards.

Lukaku’s stock is boosted not only by Kane’s injury but, perhaps more significantly, the uncertainty surrounding Manchester City’s striker options. Quite simply, Pep Guardiola’s rotation policy has us in a spin.

The most transferred-in (540,000+) player in the Gameweek, Sergio Aguero started at home to Burnley on Saturday and played 120 minutes in the midweek cup clash with Wolves.

Meanwhile, Gabriel Jesus – the second most sold player (290,000+) in the Gameweek behind Kane – was a brief sub against the Clarets and played 82 minutes on Tuesday.

In terms of FPL output, Aguero – with an average of 8.4 points per match to Jesus’ 6.0 – has the clear advantage.

One, or both, could thrive from a schedule that sees them square up to West Brom, Arsenal, Leicester, Huddersfield, Southampton and West Ham in the next six Gameweeks.

But with the never-ending uncertainty over their manager’s teamsheets, they remain behind Lukaku and even the injured Kane in our thinking.

Investment currently comes packaged with a degree of uncertainty that looks likely to outlast Kane’s absence or Lukaku’s dry spell and testing fixtures. That will hopefully change when we can build a clearer picture of Guardiola’s intentions.

Elsewhere, Arsene Wenger’s decision to field Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil in the same XI as Alexandre Lacazette (10.3) for the first time proved telling on Sunday.

Having scored four times at home, the Frenchman subsequently netted his first away goal of the campaign in the weekend hammering of Everton with his fellow big-hitters on board.

While the return to form of Sanchez, in particular, may dent Lacazette’s allure, Wenger’s recent Europa League and Carabao Cup teamsheets shows that he’s determined to rest his main men for league duties.

And with penalty duties also in hand, the summer signing could be set for a reappraisal if Arsenal can profit from an admittedly mixed upcoming schedule (SWA mci TOT bur HUD) in the next five.

Chelsea’s Alvaro Morata still has the fixtures to flourish, though his withdrawal on the hour-mark at home to Watford is something of a worry.

Nonetheless, his six goals and two assists in eight appearances equate to an average of 6.3 points per match – identical to Lukaku, for example.

The Spaniard has played a part in 67% of his side’s goals when on the pitch and with Eden Hazard mustering just a single assist in six since returning from injury, Morata is surely their likeliest source of goals.

Between now and Gameweek 21, Antonio Conte’s side entertain Swansea, Newcastle, Southampton, Brighton and Stoke and also pay visit to the likes of Bournemouth, West Brom, West Ham, Huddersfield and Everton.

Leicester’s Jamie Vardy (8.6) has taken a slight tumble after a run of blanks across three favourable fixtures.

It remains to be seen whether the departure of manager Craig Shakespeare will affect Vardy’s prospects, with the Foxes facing Everton, Stoke, West Ham, Burnley and Newcastle in the next seven.

Visits from Man City and Spurs over that period dent his appeal, as does the improving form of Riyad Mahrez (8.4) as an alternative. The Algerian has a goal and two assists in the last two Gameweeks and was also on the scoresheet in Tuesday’s EFPL Cup win over Leeds.

There are a number of cut-price options in our updated list, though Swansea City’s Tammy Abraham (5.7) remains our weapon of choice.

The loanee has Brighton, Bournemouth, West Ham and Crystal Palace as four of his next five visitors (along with Man City), handing him the platform to add to his four goals so far.

Trips to Arsenal, Burnley and Chelsea are far less convincing, encouraging us to seek out a rotation option either in midfield or defence. However, Abraham also has visits to Stoke and Everton between now and Gameweek 18 – fixtures that could provide further profit.

Elsewhere, Stoke City’s Mame Biram-Diouf has scored in three successive matches and has recently been shifted from a right wing-back role to the central attacking berth by manager Mark Hughes ahead of six promising (wat LEI bha cry LIV SWA) fixtures.

However, midfield team-mate Eric Choupo-Moting is similarly priced at 5.7 to Diouf’s 5.5 and betters him for shots (27 to 17) and efforts in the box (17 to 15) for those reluctant to hand a Stoke striker a place a valuable place in their three-man frontline.

We’re also backing Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin to profit from the departure of Ronald Koeman.

Priced at a mere 5.0, the youngster has started each of the last four Gameweek, firing more shots (12) and efforts in the box (nine) than any team-mate in that period.

Premier League 2 boss David Unsworth has been handed the reins on at least a temporary basis and could turn to the squad’s more youthful players to inject some much-needed pace to their XI.

One look at the fixtures highlights the Toffees’ potential.

Between now and Gameweek 21, they enjoy ten kind match-ups (lei WAT cry sot WHU HUD new SWA wba bou), with only head-to-heads against Liverpool and Chelsea in Gameweeks 16 and 19 seen as major tests.