The Big Numbers – Gameweek 9

An issue that is affecting many fantasy football managers, is Michu really worth his 8.9 million price tag. I've dug up some stats, and given my own take on the situation. I would love to hear what you guys also think.

Michu: Contender or Pretender?

So far this season, Michu has carried so much expectation from fantasy managers; and delivered so little. In 9 games, having played every single minute of each game, he has recorded a mere 2 goals, 1 assist and 4 FPL bonus points. This totals 37 FPL points. In comparison to last season after 9 games, Michu had scored 6 goals, assisted 1, and acquired 7 FPL bonus points giving him 55 FPL points.
A complete contrast then when looking at things from the surface, but when delving in a little further Michu’s picture looks a whole lot different and a lot more positive. So far this season, six of Swansea’s 9 games have been played against teams who finished inside the top 10 last season, that’s 66% of his fixtures so far. Looking back at Michu’s goal record last season, he scored 18 Premier League goals in total, scoring against 11 different teams. Interestingly, 5 of those teams finished in the top half of the Premier League in the 11/12 season, which is nearly half the amount of teams he scored against. So on that basis; we were right in expecting more goals from Michu so far this season. However, looking at that stat from a different angle, just 7 of his 18 goals came against top 10 opposition. As stated already, he has already played 6 of last season’s top 10, and only scored against one of them ( Liverpool). This could be down to the top sides wising up, and marking Michu more tightly, or maybe the chances just haven’t fallen for him in the big games so far.
Michu is a player that seems to favour the comforts of home games as 11 of his 18 goals last season were scored at the Liberty Stadium. It is well worth noting that 4 of Swansea’s 5 home games this season have been against 4 of last season’s top 10, with the only exception being Sunderland where they bagged 4 goals. Frustratingly for fantasy managers, Michu failed to return any attacking points in that game. He did have 2 attempts on goal, with 1 on target, and the other off.
So we know the score. Michu this time last year had scored 6 goals, so far this just 2. The real question is: Is Michu doing anything differently to this time last year? In simple terms, no. All of Michu’s stats are almost identical to what they were last year, in fact, this season’s stats are arguably even better. But the stats that matter the most to us FPL managers as far as Michu’s concerned is attacking threat and shooting. Michu has so far had 10 more penalty area touches that he had after 9 games last year: 42 to 52. This indicates that he is still involved in attacks and is still getting the ball in and around the area. As far as attempts on goal, again he has increased this season, 24 shots to 27. That averages him 3 shots a match this season, which will eventually lead to goals. So, has he been unlucky, or has his finishing been hitting row z? Looking at the stats, a bit of both. From his 27 shots this season, 8 have been blocked. This means that 19 attempts have been goal bound. Of those 19, 11 have hit the target giving him a shot accuracy of 57%. Then of his 23 shots from the first 9 games last season, 4 were blocked. So again he had 11 shots that hit the target, yet again giving him an identical shooting accuracy to this season of 57%. So according to the stats, he isn’t doing anything differently other than not having the rub of the green and seeing the ball hitting the back of the net. This is positive for fantasy managers who own Michu, as the law of average should soon catch up, seeing Michu hitting big returns like he did last season.
*Note that Michu has played 49 more minutes from the first 9 games this season compared to the first 9 games from last season so the stats may be slightly biased
Swansea are also playing in the Europa League this season, but Michu doesn’t seem to be suffering from fatigue. He’s started every game so far in Europa League group stages, being substituted just once. He has netted 2 goals and assisted 1 in 3 European games.
All in all, Michu is still producing the stats that won FPL manager’s hearts in 12/13 season, but hasn’t got the returns that have been expected of him. As identified, he has had a tricky run of games, but has a very favourable run up to Christmas. Visiting the Liberty of the next 11 gameweeks are (STO, NEW, HUL, EVE, MNC). The next 3 home games certainly offer Michu to find form, and carry it through the Christmas period. Whilst away from home, he faces (car, ful, mnc, nor, che, ast). So a strong run of games, that will most definitely determine how Michu’s season pans out. It is also worth taking note on the fact that Michu is very much a confidence player. His returns last season came in batches of 4 to 7 games, so patience is key. So to summarise. If you own him, hold. If you don’t, wait and see. And only the very very brave will captain him; until Michu wakes from his early season slumber and starts to terrorise Premier League defences one again.