Injuries
26 January 2010 0 comments
Akers Akers
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With injuries, suspensions and a rearranged Carling Cup game depriving us of many members of our fantasy lineups, we are left to try and pick up the pieces going into gameweek 23. Despite many of us boasting impressive hauls last week, any shrewd (greedy) fantasy manager should put last week behind them, and be eager to capitalise on the next opportunity.

So, what do some of our site contributors make of the dilemma facing most of us? Splash out and fill the teamsheet? Sit tight and ride the storm? Or go mental and ensure a full quota of substitutes?

Akers: “Fielding eleven players in any given gameweek has to be a priority, and spending points to enable this can quite easily be justified. Normally (as you know), a four-point hit in the FPL (or CYKI) game is considered a success if the transferred in player outscores the transfered out player by at least four points in the near future. [You do also have to factor in the points substitutes would have got if you were selling an injured/suspended player.] This is still the case here, but safe in the knowledge that the transfered in player only has to score four, to recoup the four.

With two points per game generally considered ‘worst case scenario’, it won’t take an out of the ordinary performance to cancel the defecit. Moreover, with double gameweeks around the corner and on the horizon, the task is made that much easier.

Obviously, the ultimate goal is not just to recoup the four points, but to recruit a player capable of a decent return. Here, normal transfer rules apply. Check form, fixtures, or whatever floats your boat.

In my case, it looks like a solitary four-point hit is on the cards (aided by two free transfers), which will give me one substitute (Dann) as insurance if any player is injured/missing. One or two double gameweek players will be drafted in, and of my six missing players, I’ll be shipping the ones I want the least on return.”

Granville: “I’ve got at least 5 players out this gameweek. Rather than ruing injuries and citing how unlucky it is, I blame myself for hanging on to 2 of my United players and transferring in Bellamy a couple of weeks ago with the full knowledge that they wouldn’t play this gameweek. By doing this I exposed my team to an extent that any injuries would then not allow me a full complement of players. So now I must spend at least 4 points to get out 11, but I think I will spend 8 though just to be sure. Last gameweek it was easier spending points on double gameweek players because essentially you are spending 2 points on each player presuming that the minumum a player will score is 2. This gameweek there is no such luxury, but next gameweek there are doubles, so I’m going to buy up some Chelsea and Fulham players. I do get the feeling that my whole transfer policy from now till the end of the season will revolve around these double gameweeks.

The H2H leagues this year have made individual gameweeks that bit more important. Another fly in the ointment for me is the Fantasy Cup, I’m still in there and riding my luck and I would like to keep that going, it’s just about all I’ve got left!”

Greek fan: “Normally, I should not need anything more than my regular (usually awful) transfer(s). It was well known that there are only eight fixtures in this gamweek and there was plenty of time for all of us to be prepared. Surely, when Man Utd is one of the teams without a match there’s a biggest chance to get yourself a problem, especially when it follows a tasty double gameweek for them. Still, I had planned to do two transfers and be fine, as I also wanted to re-shape my squad.

Unfortunately, plans do not always work and too many games in a few days can generate extra problems. Abou Diaby was injured last week, Chris Samba could not have found a worse moment to pick a red card, Frank Lampard limped out of Blues’ FA Cup tie and Sylvan Ebanks-Blake does not feel too sure about his starting role anymore. I hear you say that he should be miles away from my squad already, but this is another case of a plan’s failure due to uncontrolable factors. After all that, my side is in ruins.

So now I am poised to make four transfers, and receive what will be my biggest ever point hit in my Fantasy Football history. And still I can only hope. However, I don’t see any reason why I should not, having a chance to change some things in the squad. My only worry is to find those transfers to be profitable in the long run. And my only consolation the fact that the hit will actually be only 8 points, not 16, if all my transfers score the minimum of 2 points each, instead of 0 points the existing non-playing members of my squad would bring.

I would guess that the right captain choice is even more important this time, in a possibly low scoring week.”

Mark: “This is a very timely discussion. Right now I’m going into gameweek 23 without Rooney, Brown, Tevez and Faye due to missing fixtures, Samba through suspension, Diaby is out injured and Scharner, Taylor and Dunn are doubts. That potentially leaves me with five players – certainly a crisis in my book.

In this situation I find it hard to resist multiple transfers. I find it very hard to knowingly go into a gameweek without eleven players who I feel are at least likely to start. If I take a gamble on Scharner and Dunn, that still leaves me three short of that target – so my likely strategy will be three or even four transfers.

That will of course mean I’ll lose 8 or 12 points as a result but then I justify this loss in my head by considering that, with just 8 players starting, I’m losing out on around 6 points at the gameweek kick-off. That cuts the points loss in half to sweeten the pill. In addition, with double gameweeks on the horizon in gameweek 24 and 26, if I can tailor my transfers in for these, I’m covering this gameweek’s points loss even further. Of course I also have to get the right players – that means attempting to findt players who will not only contribute for this gameweek but who will also fit into a more long-term strategy.

I say gamble with multiple transfers in terms of crisis then, but only do so with a long-term plan in mind. As an example, in gameweek 21 I was faced with the same situation – 6 players out through injury and missing fixtures. I made 5 transfers because I knew gameek 22 with its attractive doubles was looming. I brought Rooney, Tevez and Diaby in for gameweek 21 and saw them score heavily in gameweek 22 to reward the gamble. My other two signings – the Spurs pair of Modric and Gomes, were less effective over gameweek 22 but I knew I’d have them in place for this gameweek and the home fixture with Fulham. I’m hoping that they, along with my multiple transfers this week, pay off and see me through these troubled times.”

SIR PAULOS: “There I was thinking, that with my weekly transfer, I could just about struggle through Gameweek 23, when Diaby gets injured on Wednesday and Samba is shown a red card. My plan needed another revision.

Currently I have seven players definitely able to play, but rather than leave the team like this and ride the week out, I feel there’s a way to take hits and still be better off for it, and that is to plan properly and take advantage of the upcoming Double Gameweeks.

With Chelsea, Fulham and Portsmouth all playing GW23, then following it up with a Double GW24, there’s ample opportunity to replace those players who won’t be taking the field.

Although this means taking a points hit, I’m certain that with Chelsea’s consistency and Fulham’s good home form (5 games at Craven Cottage between now and GW29), the margin for error lessens, meaning that there’s every chance any points hit will be one worth taking.”

Akers Richard or Akers, as he is known, has been regularly haunting this site since July 2008. He is young and foolish, take what he says with a pinch of salt. Follow them on Twitter

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