Last weekend’s brilliant second half fight back at Reading not only broke Aston Villa’s much-talked about March hoodoo, it also ensured Martin O’Neill’s boys gave us FPL managers the chance of selecting them for two consecutive DGWs.
Admittedly, at two-nil down at home on Sunday it seemed unlikely, but a sterling second forty-five minute performance helped go some way to beating those Carling Cup Final blues. Here’s a look at their double fixtures in gameweek 30…
The Opponents
Despite both games being away from home, Villa’s record on their travels this season -just eleven league goals conceded outside of Villa Park- means they should hold no fear. First up is a visit to Stoke, where Tony Pulis’ team will be hoping to bounce back from last weekend’s FA Quarter Final defeat at Chelsea.
Stoke’s defeat at home to Arsenal in the “Aaron Ramsey” game a fortnight ago was their first loss in eight league games; up until then they were, alongside Villa, the only unbeaten team in the league for 2010. Although the Britannia is regarded as something of a fortress, Stoke have actually lost more home league games than Burnley this season, and have kept just 4 clean sheets at the Britannia, shutting out their opponents just two times in the last twelve.
Next up is a trip to Wigan, and the DW’s newly-laid pitch that saw Liverpool defeated earlier this week in a pathetic display by the visitors. Roberto Martinez will be hoping his side can continue their winning ways, with the Liverpool game being their first win in eight games.
In spite of this week’s win, Wigan have been struggling to find the net over the last few months, and have only scored more than one goal in a league game just once in their last twelve fixtures.
Current Form
Villa are the only undefeated Premiership team in 2010, with two wins and four draws since the turn of the year. Having no European agenda this season has been beneficial to Martin O’Neill’s team, and can be partly attributed to their fantastic runs in both domestic cup competitions.
This weekend, they return to league action just four points and two games behind fourth place Spurs, continuing the chase for the final Champions League qualifying slot. As mentioned above, Villa have a fantastic away record this season, and have been beaten just three times on their travels.
They have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five away games, with Brad Friedel unbeaten in eight of Villa’s last twelve league games.
Rotation Risk
Barring the “Heskey or Carew” dilemma, Villa’s first choice XI is one of the most predictable in the Premiership. The likes of Luke Young has seen game time recently, deputising when injuries have sidelined James Collins or Stephen Warnock in recent months.
With O’Neill’s recent complaints regarding Villa’s March schedule, perhaps Steve Sidwell or Fabian Delph will make an appearance with the club having four league games in a fortnight and a FA Cup semi-final round the corner.
Potential Targets
First of all, here’s Villa’s away stats: P12, W5, D4, L3, F14, A11.
They have 5 clean sheets on the road, have scored more than 1 goal just 3 times, and have also conceded more than 1 goal just 3 times. They have, however, only failed to score on two occasions. All in all, these figures do point to low scoring games, suggesting defence could be the best investment.
Brad Friedel
With Villa’s defence so integral to their success, Friedel has been impressive all season. His last five away games, as well as picking up four clean sheets, has seen him record 24 saves, just under 5 saves a match and helped returned the stopper 31 points, making him the top scoring keeper in FPL so far this season.
Predicted Return: 7 saves, 1 clean sheet
James Collins & Richard Dunne
Since returning to the heart of Villa’s defence from injury, Collins has outscored Dunne in Bonus Points, and is over £2m cheaper in FPL, which makes him a far more accessible acquisition. Dunne, the highest scoring FPL defender to date, is perhaps an option for those managers with plenty budget to spare. Collins’ stats since the turn of the year, though, suggest there is currently little between them.
Predicted Return: 1 clean sheet & 1 Bonus Point each.
James Milner
Slightly edges Richard Dunne as Villa’s highest scoring FPL player. As the recent “Technical Area” piece stated, his move to the middle has made his side harder to beat, but the league goals have slightly dried up. Villa have scored just five goals in the five away games since his move to centre midfield, with Milner’s points in the 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat being 4,13,2,3,3, giving him an average on 5 points per game on the road since moving infield.
Predicted Return: 1 clean sheet, 1 assist, 2 Bonus Points
Ashley Young
Has spent most of the season in Milner’s shadow, though has still managed to break the 100 point barrier with 12 games to go. Since Milner has shifted position though, Young has scored or assisted in 4 Premiership matches, a figure that betters his fellow midfielder‘s. As these figures show, Young has had more shots on goal and 40+ more crosses than Milner, which, if he follows up his recent FA Cup form, could soon be paying dividend.
Predicted Return: 1 clean sheet, 1 goal, 1 assist
Gabby Agbonlahor
John Carew’s FA Cup hat-trick merits him a mention, but the big Norwegian has scored just once away from home in the league all season, back in October, and it’s perhaps best holding fire till we see if O’Neill gives him enough game minutes. Has played 90 mins in the league just 4 times this season.
Agbonlahor, on the other hand, has scored 6 of Villa’s 14 on their travels. Three goals, one assist and 3 Bonus Points in his last four league games point to him being a man in form, though he has only found the net in two of his last ten Premiership games.
Predicted Return: 1 goal