Let’s not mince words, this gameweek looks pretty evil. For starters our fixtures are split by FA Cup distractions that threaten to deprive us of players due to injury and rotation. That immediately casts some doubt over the selection of Chelsea, Spurs and Villa players as they go into their midweek league matches.
These doubts are compounded by a fixture list which does us few favours. There are a couple of nightmare pairings with Villa facing Everton and Spurs meeting Arsenal; fixtures that are both hard to call and pretty ropey when it comes to defensive returns. Statistics show that both the Villa and Spurs defences are strong but both have injuries and will likely be fatigued from the FA Cup semis. They are also up against league opponents who will pose a threat and likely spoil their clean sheet prospects. I see goals for all four sides in these games.
Thankfully, there are still one or two gifts delivered by the fixture computer. Liverpool’s Anfield clash with Fuham looks a big home banker, particularly with Roy Hodgson contemplating resting players following their Europa League exertions. Liverpool also come off the back of a European tie but can hardly afford to take risks with rotation as they chase fourth place. With the Benitez boys in very strong home form, a win by a decent margin looks likely with strong clean sheet potential for Carragher and his mates.
Then there’s Chelsea who will be stretched by a FA Cup semi with Villa but who have a handy home fixture with Bolton that makes their players hard to ignore. While Didier Drogba may be a risk too far, their defence and the likes of Florent Malouda and Frank Lampard remain very strong prospects. Man City provide the next best option for home banker, albeit a more shaky one, with Birmingham the visitors to Eastlands. And it’s City that end this rambling nonsense to get this week’s Picks underway…
The Defence
Shay Given is handed my keeper’s jersey then. The defence in front of him remains largely unreliable, but in a week where defensive points look likely to be at a premium, City look worth a punt at home to Birmingham. Mancini’s side have conceded just a couple of goals in their last five home league games, while Birmingham have found the net but have not travelled well of late. Four defeats in their last five away trips indicates that they could find it tough at Eastlands and that’s enough for me to back a shut-out for Given in a game which I expect City to dominate.
In front of Given I’ve opted for Glen Johnson of Liverpool and Yuri Zhirkov of Chelsea. Both look guaranteed starters in their home fixtues and both have the attacking potential to boost their defensive returns. Expensive options but worthy of the outlay, although it’s worth noting that Zhirkov’s potential until the end of the season is limited by Ashley’s Cole’s likely return in a fortnight.
The remaining defensive slots are far more difficult to fill. I was tempted by the United defence at Blackburn but just see them conceding with Champions League fatigue a possible factor. I was also toying with the idea of going with Blackburn’s own Martin Olsson, although I’d be relying solely on attacking points from Olsson’s advanced position in the Rovers lineup.
Instead I’ve gone for a Hull defender. Bear with me here. Steven Mouyokolo is the dominant figure in the Hull rearguard, is as cheap as oven chips and will be the main factor in keeping a shot-shy Burnley at bay. Brian Law’s side arrive at the KC stadium fighting for survival and severely wounded from their 6-1 defeat to City. Even so, I can see Hull winning this one and earning their second consecutive home clean sheet. Mouyokolo presents a budget option, with a chance of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) bonus thrown in.
Stoke’s Abdoulaye Faye gets the final shirt in my back four. Tony Pulis’ side have conceded just three goals in their last five away games in the Premier League. Wolves meanwhile, although in decent enough form of late, have notched just a single goal at Molineux in their last five home matches. A pretty extraordinary statistic that certainly suggests that backing Stoke for a shut-out is the way to go, despite the recent resurgence from McCarthy’s side. I’m resisting the Wolves budget prospects then (Jody Craddock, Matt Jarvis, David Jones) and opting for the Stoke defence. Faye looks the best option with Ryan Shawcross still not assured of a start.
The Midfield
Goals will surely come at Anfield and Stamford Bridge making Florent Malouda and Steven Gerrard obvious selections. Malouda is in possibly the form of his career; the Premier League player of the month is available for a far cheaper price than team-mate Lampard but matches him with a return of five goals in his last four league starts. As for Gerrard, he has failed to live up to his price all season but such is his dominance from set-plays and his influence from midfield, he still looks a good option for this week against a potentially second-string Fulham. Gerrard is also a good mid-term option with West Ham and Burnley coming next for Liverpool.
My third midfielder finds a second Hull player in the lineup – albeit a far more familiar one. Jiimmy Bullard will be a central figure in Hull’s bid for survival and if they are to overcome Burnley this weekend, then Bullard will surely be a major influence. Dominant at set-plays, Bullard should at least guarantee some FPL bonus if Hull can prompt a grin from Iain Dowie’s much-maligned facial features.
I’ve taken a slight risk with the final midfield slot and opted for United’s Nani. Far from assured of a starting role at Blackburn, I fancy him to start with Ferguson looking to him to provide something extra in the absence of Wayne Rooney. Cheaper than the more reliable Antonio Valencia, Nani has very decent form and at times this season has demonstrated some consistency in his fantasy scoring as well as his delivery on the pitch.
The Forwards
Fernando Torres demands selection. Even if Rafa has another mad moment and hauls him off after an hour, form and statistics suggest that Torres will do enough damage to earn his owners strong returns. Torres has notched two goals in each of Liverpool’s last four Anfield encounters in all competitions. It’s difficult to imagine him not scoring against a Fulham defence that could rest Brede Hangeland and/or Aaron Hughes.
With Drogba not quite assured of a start against Bolton given his FA Cup appearance this weekend, it was between Arsenal’s Nicklas Bendtner and Man City’s Calos Tevez for the other striker slot. I’ve opted for the latter, even though I’ve an inkling that Bendtner will punish Spurs at the Lane with Robin Van Persie now breathing down his neck. Bendtner is on my bench then, a place he’ll become accustomed again once Van Persie returns. As for Tevez, he has outstanding form and will likely be amongst the points again if City are to prevail against Birmingham. Tevez and City will have a far more difficult time of things following last weekend’s stroll around the static Burnley defence, but I still fancy a couple of goals with Tevez amongst the assists and FPL bonus at the very least.
Paddy Says
Your betting itch may well get scratched by the National but if you want to stay faithful to your football bets then I’ve arranged the usual couple of Scout markets with our friends at Paddy Power. The clean sheet accumulator offers odds of 4/1 on Liverpool, City and Chelsea all keeping a clean sheet. The Scout Picks bet meanwhile gives you 9/1 on Bullard, Malouda and Torres all scoring in the gameweek.
Paddy is offering new deal for sign-ups while National fever grips the betting nation. You can sign up from this site today and if you make five bets then Paddy will match your average stake up to a maximum of £10. Bet another five times and they will match it again – potentially handing you two free tenners. Our normal deal of a free £20 when you sign up and make a £10 bet will be open again from Saturday evening.