Reading recent comments on the site, it’s been interesting to see how everyone is preparing to tackle the new creation known as the McDonald’s/FIFA game.
Andy has insightfully taken on some of the scoring differences from the Fantasy Premier League game, which should help with some final decisions about spreading money between attackers and defenders. A separate looming question that has be open to debate is whether to select active, viable players in all 23-man squad spots or to essentially reduce your squad size by bringing in budget 1.0 players in order to upgrade other positions. Although the sample size is too small to serve as any cast-iron predictor, perhaps a look at some of the retrospective data from the World Cup Finals gone by (2006, 2002, and 1998) using the current format, will provide some additional assistance in assessing Fantasy scoring prospects and probabilities…
Goalscoring
During group play in the last three World Cups, there were 117, 130, and 126 goals scored during 2006, 2002, and 1998, an average of 2.44, 2.71, and 2.63 total goals per game (both teams). The lowest total for a single group was 9 goals in 6 games (Group F in 2002), while the highest total was 22 goals (Group B in 2002).
While the “per game” averages provide a barometer, talent Fantasy managers proceed with the hope of picking above average players from the above average teams. Unfortunately, the task has not been easy as there were not many teams as a whole that scored six or more goals during group play (i.e., an average of at least 2.0 per team):
– 2006: 4 teams [Germany (8), Argentina (8), Spain (8), Brazil (7)]
– 2002: 6 teams [Brazil (11), Germany (11), Spain (9), Paraguay (6), Portugal (6), Belgium (6)]
– 1998: 8 teams [France (9), Spain (8), Italy (7), Holland (7), Mexico (7), Argentina (7), Brazil (6), Germany (6)]
Goals have generally translated into success, and Portugal in 2002 is the only one of these high scoring teams that did not advance beyond the group stage. In terms of identifying these squads in advance, other than Mexico in 1998 and Paraguay, Portugal, and Belgium in 2002, all of these teams came from Pot one of their respective draws. That fact should be helpful in eliminating a number of teams, but still leaves some difficult decisions as there were 4 teams in 2006 and 5 teams in 2002 that were honored with inclusion in Pot 1, but failed to score an average of 2 goals per game in group play.
Moving past averages and total goals to specific game tallies, in the 48 group games (i.e., with 96 total games played by the two teams involved in each game), there have only been 11, 15, and 12 occasions during 2006, 2002, and 1998 when a team has scored 3 or more goals during a single game.
On the other end of the spectrum, a large number of teams have failed to score more than 3 goals during group play: 18 in 2006, 12 in 2002, and 16 in 1998. Included in these figures are 1 team in 2006 (Trinidad & Tobago) and 3 teams in 2002 (France, China, and Saudi Arabia) that did not score a single goal.
No surprise here, but low scoring has coincided with elimination, with the exceptions (with goals during group play in parentheses) being Sweden (3), Holland (3), and France (3) in 2006, England (2) in 2002, and Denmark (3) and Paraguay (3) in 1998. France in 2006 and France and Argentina in 2002 are the only such teams to have come from Pot one of the draw.
In terms of individual scoring, 26 players had 2 or more goals in 2006 (with 9 of those having 3 or more), 27 players had 2 or more goals in 2002 (with 14 of those having 3 or more), and 36 players had 2 or more goals in 1998 (with 13 of those having 3 or more). There were an additional 80, 79, and 72 players during 2006, 2002, and 1998, respectively, who scored a single goal during the tournament.
Clean Sheets
There were a total of 35, 25, and 25 clean sheets during group play in the 2006, 2002, and 1998 World Cups, with an additional 11, 13, and 6 during the respective elimination rounds. Thus, for every two matches played during 2002 and 1998 (a group’s first round for example), there would be one clean sheet for one of the four teams. The defensive returns were slightly better in 2006. While the number is low, keep in mind that on average 5 players on each team will get those points when they do come in.
Digging a little deeper, two teams (Switzerland 2006 and Argentina 1998) have managed to record three clean sheets during group play during the past three World Cups, while 11, 11, and 14 of the teams failed to record any clean sheets during each of 2006, 2002, and 1998. The breakdown for clean sheets during group play is as follows:
| 2006 | 2002 | 1998 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 clean sheets | Switzerland | None | Argentina |
| 2 clean sheets | Ecuador Germany England Sweden Holland Argentina Portugal Italy Brazil France Spain Ukraine | South Korea Germany Japan England | France Paraguay Germany Yugoslavia England |
| 1 clean sheet | Paraguay Trinidad & Tobago Mexico Angola Czech Republic Ghana Japan Croatia | Senegal France Uruguay Denmark South Africa Costa Rica Brazil Turkey Portugal Cameroon Ireland Argentina Nigeria Mexico Ecuador Italy Russia | Brazil Morocco Italy Denmark Spain Bulgaria Nigeria Belgium Holland Romania Columbia Croatia |
| No clean sheets | Costa Rica Poland Serbia.&.Montenegro Ivory Coast Iran USA Australia South Korea Togo Saudi Arabia Tunisia | Paraguay Slovenia Spain China USA Poland Saudi Arabia Sweden Croatia Belgium Tunisia | Norway Scotland Chile Austria Cameroon Saudi Arabia South Africa Mexico South Korea USA Iran Tunisia Jamaica Japan |
England and Germany are the only squads that recorded two clean sheets during group play in the past three World Cups. South Korea and Japan got into the two-clean sheet club on home turf during 2002, but that group has otherwise been the exclusive domain of European and South American squads. On the other end of the spectrum, Tim Howard’s name continues to be mentioned as a Fantasy goalie prospect, but in addition to my previously expressed concerns (about the USA defense not Howard personally), team USA has not kept a clean sheet during group play during this period.
Squad Considerations
Swimming in unchartered territory, perhaps there are some nuggets in these figures that might help with allocation and roster decisions. Some quick observations:
– Even the expensive attacking heavy-hitters probably can’t be relied upon game in and game out. The total goals simply aren’t there.
– With some 100+ players scoring in each tournament (which doesn’t include assists), there really are attacking nuggets to be found in the less expensive players. A single well timed goal is all you ask for from an inexpensive substitute.
– There will be an occasional blowout, but it is a very small number of games where teams scored 3+ goals in a game, and thus an even smaller number of times where big individual returns should be expected.
– A large group (over one-third) of the teams are unlikely to provide productive defensive substitutes. Unlike the inexpensive forward who might surprise us in any game, is that 3.0 defender really enhancing the probability of getting a clean sheet? In the McDonalds/FIFA game you’re likely to be relying on the far less predictable defensive bonus points with these players.
– Compared to some of the bargain options, players from mid-tier to upper-tier defenses may be worth the additional 1.0 to 2.0 to move from nominal clean sheet prospects to chances for one or even two clean sheets during group play.
There you go – more to digest. Time is short with the opening kickoff around the corner and numbers such as these can often be used to support conflicting theories. Share your final strategies here.