This week’s Carling Cup action was surprisingly eventful. There were a string of formbook upsets – Newcastle turning over Chelsea, City falling at the Hawthorns and of course Liverpool falling foul of the Cobblers at Anfield.
Plenty of variables to factor in to this week’s analysis then? Perhaps not. As the early stages of the cup competitions traditionally offer up a selection of new talent and injured players returning to fitness, much of this week’s odds seem to be unaffected by the midweek events. Throw a few tight looking match-ups into the equation and this week Paddy Says “Pick who you like, as long as their wearing red!”
Who Will Keep Clean Sheet?
- Arsenal 1.83 (WBA)
- Liverpool 1.90 (SUN)
- Man Utd 2.10 (bol)
- Birmingham 2.25 (WIG)
- Newcastle 2.40 (STK)
- Tottenham 2.80 (whm)
- Everton 2.87 (ful)
- Chelsea 2.87 (mcy)
Arsenal have been going from strength to strength of late – the 4-1 victory at White Hart Lane in midweek demonstrated the depth of the squad – a good thing considering the injuries that Wenger currently has to contend with. We know that Vermaelen will miss the weekend clash with West Brom but Arsenal still look solid enough and with Song and Diaby set to bolster the midfield, even without Fabregas to help retain possession, they look strong options for the cleanie. Paddy have duly opted to put the Gunners at the top of the odds table.
Liverpool feature a close second, although dropping two to Northampton, they will restore their first choice defence against Sunderland. Martin Skrtel looks to have cemented his place alongside Carragher but is of course Paul Konchesky at 5.1 in the Fantasy Premier League game who will continue to attract investment as soon as the Anfield clean sheet machine moves into gear. Darren Bent is the danger, he just keeps scoring regardless of the opposition, and we all remember the beachball incident from last season. Inflated odds then? It might be a bit of a risk to believe Hodgson can earn the shutout this weekend but Konchesky still looks to be worth the gamble given his price the run of fixtures to come.
The best of the rest appear to be edged in the favour of the betting rather than the probability of a cleanie, as the prices seem a touch on the short side. Man Utd nearly threw away a comfortable win against Everton last week and while Rio Ferdinand’s (6.5) return may inject a bit of fortitude at the back at Bolton. Owen Coyle’s side have the tools to exploit the weaknesses amongst Ferguson’s rearguard.
Birmingham look a stronger bet with the likes of Scott Dann and Ben Foster already offering strong Fantasy value so far this season. Visitors Wigan are hopelessly unpredictable however, and have it in them to notch a goal and provide the shock. This looks another clean sheet on shaky ground.
Newcastle, Chelsea and Spurs also make their mark, but are either riddled with injury or facing strong opponents that are gaining in form, clean sheets still look fragile here then. There are cheap Fantasy options to turn your head here though, with Tim Krul offering starts at just 4.0 in the FPL, whilst Hutton at Spurs is available at 4.8 and should have earned himself another start after the showing against Wolves.
Anytime Goalscorer
- Chamakh 1.57
- Torres 1.66
- Arshavin 1.83
- Berbatov 1.83
- Rooney 1.83
- Vela 2.00
- Drogba 2.25
- Gerrard 2.30
- N’Gog 2.30
- Carroll 2.40
- Hernandez 2.40
- Jerome 2.40
- DJ Campbell 2.62
- Nasri 2.70
- Kalinic 2.80
- Agbonlahor 2.80
- Tevez 2.87
- Crouch 2.87
- Pavlyuchenko 2.87
The big names are all there, but it’s certainly not as Chelsea orientated as normal. Arsenal are tipped to score heavily against the Baggies and Chamakh therefore tops the odds with Arshavin not far behind. The little Russian can seem a little lethargic at times then crackle into action in an instant and already has quietly gathered a decent goal haul so far this season. It’s difficult to argue with Paddy’s assessment here.
The misfiring Liverpool heroes are tipped to do well at Sunderland. Every game seems to be one game closer to Hodgson getting Torres back into goalscoring form, but at 11.5 he is definitely still a massive risk. N’gog has been prolific outside of the league and Gerrard has been a solid fantasy point scorer, so it seems about time everything clicked; it seems Paddy believes that the Black Cats could be on the receiving end this weekend.
Berbatov and Rooney are strongly backed to score at Bolton and while the latter is still scratching around for form, the Bulgarian’s hat-trick last weekend confirmed his superb start to the season and he, along with Nani, look set to be the main threat to the home side at the Reebok. United’s questionable defence is likely to force United on the attack and if they do need to register two to three goals, it seems pretty unlikely that Berbatov, Rooney and Nani won’t be in the mix.
Birmingham’s Cameron Jerome might just be the cheap pick of the week as Paddy offers a generous 2.40 for the striker to find the net at home against Wigan. He offers strong Fantasy value for the coming weeks for those seeking a third striker alternative.
Didier Drogba and Carlos Tevez go head to head, but as is often with these sorts of well-matched clashes, goals might be hard to find at Eastlands. Newcastle’s Andy Carroll seems to be a popular favourite among punters at the moment although Stoke will surely be prepared for the physical challenge he presents. He still looks strong though providing you’re backing goals in this one.
Paddy’s Scout Specials
This week’s Clean Sheet Accumulator offers odds of 15/2 on Arsenal, Liverpool and Chris Hughton’s Newcastle all keeping shutouts in their home encounters.
Our Scout Picks special meanwhile offers a generous 20/1 on Clint Dempsey, Samir Nasri and Andy Carroll all finding the net in the Gameweek.
If you fancy something a little more leftfield, then take a look at the Fantasy Island Risks bet that takes up Mark’s selection from this week’s ScoutCast – you can get 11/1 on West Ham’s Victor Obinna and Wolves’s Steven Fletcher both netting in their matches this weekend.
Keep an eye in an hour or so for a nice little enhanced bet from Paddy. They will be delivering some very special odds on a very special player, so keep ’em peeled here for that limited time offer.
Paddy’s Money Back Special
This week Paddy are refunding all losing first/last goalscorer and score and scorecast single bets if City’s Carlos Tevez scores the last goal in the match against Chelsea.
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