When the ScoutCast calls, how can you say no? Last week’s podcast saw Mark and Granville pondering the merits of Bolton’s front two, Johan Elmander and Kevin Davies, as Owen Coyle‘s side continue to punch above their weight this season. Prior to Saturday’s match with Newcastle, the big Swede had yet to find the net at home despite being the club‘s top-scorer and provider of assists. Davies, however, is on spot-kicks and is more favourably looked upon by the Bonus Points judges, so the decision is a tricky one.
For this weekend at least, the debate was rendered somewhat insignificant as the pair shared four goals, two assists and five Bonus Points between them in the 5-1 mauling of Chris Hughton’s side, for a combined total of 31 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points.
With Bolton sitting just six points off the league summit, and with a home game against Blackpool this upcoming weekend, there’s been some heavy investment in their forwards already this Gameweek, a reflection of Elmander’s placing as second-top scoring player in FPL, with Davies not far behind in joint-seventh spot. Here’s some analysis of the pair, then….
| Team | Home/Away | Davies Shots | Davies Goals | Davies Assists | Davies Bonus Pts | Elmander Shots | Elmander Goals | Elmander Assists | Elmander Bonus Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | Home | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| West Ham | Away | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Birmingham | Home | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Arsenal | Away | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aston Villa | Away | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Man United | Home | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| West Brom | Away | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Stoke | Home | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wigan | Away | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Liverpool | Home | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Spurs | Home | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Everton | Away | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wolves | Away | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Newcastle | Home | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Kevin Davies
The following heat maps are taken from Bolton’s last two league games: away to Wolves (left) and at home to Newcastle (right). They clearly illustrate the different roles Davies plays, depending on whether Coyle’s side are on the road or not. Away from home, Davies plays a much deeper role and is more of a link-up man, as Bolton utilise his aerial ability for knock-ons and through balls for team-mates, with Davies seeing little time in the opposition box.
At home, however, Davies plays as a straightforward target-man, spending much more time in the final third of the pitch, and resultantly gets into the opposition box with far more regularity.
This shows in the marked difference in Davies’ home and away stats. At the Reebok, he’s had 12 shots, 5 goals, 2 assists, and 12 Bonus Points (including the maximum 3 three times in the last four home games). With Bolton scoring 15 goals at home, this equates to Davies being involved in 47% of all home goals.
In comparison, away from home he’s had 8 shots, 1 goal, 1 assist, and been awarded 6 Bonus Points. This means that Davies has been involved in 18% of Bolton’s 11 goals on the road.
Penalties play a big part in his stats, though; four of his five home goals have came from the spot, meaning Davies has scored from open play just twice this season- one at home, one away. It’s his more attacking Reebok role that seems to impress the on-looking Bonus Point judges and keeps Kevin Davies scoring so highly. Our Members can take a look at the OPTA Stats, which are pretty revealing when comparing the two, and certainly show the key areas where Davies excels.
Johan Elmander
These heat maps are from the same games as Davies (above), with the game at Wolves on the left and the home game with Newcastle on the right. Elmander spends a substantial amount of time in the opposition box away from home, mainly due to Davies’ deeper role. While he still gets into the box at home, he also has Davies for company when he gets there. This is reflected in the fact that Davies has only had more goal attempts than Elmander in three of Bolton’s games this season, though rather bizarrely, given their scoring records, two of them have been away.
Elmander’s attacking duties are pretty similar whether he plays home or away, and his stats are a reflection of this fact. At the Reebok, he’s had 18 shots, 2 goals, 4 assists, and been awarded 6 Bonus Points. This means he’s been involved in 40% of all Bolton’s 15 home goals.
Away from home, Elmander has managed 13 shots, 6 goals, 1 assist, and 7 Bonus Points. This is a 64% involvement in all Bolton’s away goals so far. As the heat maps show, of the two forwards it is Elmander who will get the better chances on the road, but with regards to him not scoring at home until this weekend, it has simply been a case of poor finishing from the Swede.
