With three sides missing from our schedule and a double fixture for United at Wigan and Chelsea, gameweek 28 is an odd, two-headed beast that may well take some taming.
On the surface we look to have a few home-bankers that should offer strong returns. A deeper look at these fixtures tells a different story – City for example are at Eastlands against a Fulham side who have tightened up immeasurably in recent weeks. Our Members can view Team Stats for Defending over the past 4 gameweeks and see just how they compare – in a nutshell, Mark Hughes’ side will provide ample resistance to Carlos Tevez and pals.
Similarly Villa at home to Blackburn looks a strong bet but the visiting side are an unpredictable animal and Houllier’s outfit have struggled to provide a sustained attacking threat; Villa have scored more than one goal in just a couple of their last seven league games; the 1-1 draw at Blackpool last time out was hardly convincing.
Then we have Newcastle at home to Bolton. The Mapgies have form but then Bolton bring a record that shows five clean sheets in their last six matches in all competitions. Like Fulham, the Trotters have found a method of stemming the tide – Alan Pardew’s side will have to work for their three points at St James’ Park.
For my money, Gameweek 28 will struggle for goals. United should earn a couple at Wigan, while there appears to be attacking returns in the games at Molineux and the Britannia; beyond this, we could well be looking back on the gameweek and lamenting the loss of Van Persie and Van der Vaart in a very big way.
This week’s Scout Picks presented a tough proposition then. There are returns to be had – but statistics and form suggests we could be in for a significant lull after the 100+ totals from double gameweek 27.
The Defence
Steve Harper
The Newcastle defence has earned consecutive clean sheets at Blackburn and Birmingham – evidence enough to convince us to take a punt on a keeper that carries a 4.3 value in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game. Harper faces up against Bolton and an in-from Daniel Sturridge at St James’ Park and Newcastle have been known to combust in front of their own fans. That could well be the case again, but given his price tag, Harper presents value with the promise of Save Point returns at the very least.
Leighton Baines
The Everton defence may well be breached again at Goodison against a Sunderland outfit who have discovered the knack of scoring, even without the talents of Darren Bent. Baines however, also offers serious potential going forward with a seemingly endless supply of crosses from the left flank. He’s also promoted himself in the pecking order when it comes to set-plays having stroked a beauty into the corner of Petr Cech’s net last weekend. Seamus Coleman is your option if Baines is too rich for you, but the left-back may well outscore the Irishman, despite the latter’s role on the right-wing.
Aleksandar Kolarov
A gamble given Roberto Mancini’s propensity to shuffle his back line, the Serbian remains a major temptation due to his recent role on the left side of a front three. They may not materialise against Fulham at Eastlands, but such is Kolarov’s value at set-plays, I see him retained within the starting XI. Goals could be at a premium against Fulham, a side who have learned the art of defending deep away from home which has made them a significant barrier in recent weeks. I’m backing a City cleanie with Kolarov’s left-peg delivery a possible factor in a narrow City win.
Robert Huth
The towering German has been a Fantasy revelation this season, converting his considerable threat from Stoke’s well-drilled set-plays into a tally of 6 league goals. Huth will face a West Brom side this weekend who are amongst the weakest teams in the league when it comes to combatting the aerial threat. I’d expect Stoke and Huth to cause major issues for Roy Hodgson’s side and a seventh goal of the season looks a decent prospect.
Chris Smalling
Once Rio Ferdinand was confirmed as missing both the trip to Wigan and Tuesday’s clash with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, it immediately promoted Chris Smalling in our thinking. He is of course, just a short-term measure, but the potential or prolonged issues for Ferdinand and a price tag of just 4.3 in the FPL for United’s two fixtures makes him almost impossible to ignore. Smalling has also demonstrated outstanding form since being drafted in alongside Nemanja Vidic and, while the Chelsea encounter will be tough, at least one clean sheet and maybe even some Bonus, may well materialise from the gameweek.
The Midfield
Nani
The Untied winger tops or current Captain Poll by a large margin and looks nailed on to start both of United’s two fixtures in the gameweek. The weekend trip to Wigan looks by far the most profitable and United will be heavily backed to notch at least a couple against the Latics defence – even if they do have to combat the newly laid surface. Nani has been the creative spark and chief tormentor for many weeks now and looks the most likely to come away with United attacking returns over the gameweek. It takes balls or a damn good reason to go beyond 11.30am on Saturday without him. I don’t have the former and I’m struggling to find the latter.
Joey Barton
While I don’t see too many goals at St James’ Park, I can see Alan Pardew’s buoyant Magpies nicking the three points. Barton could well be key to any victory – his current form and performance stats certainly suggest that, from midfield, he and Jonas Gutiérrez are the leading contenders to provide the spark or final ball that could prove decisive. Combine Barton’s set-piece delivery and spot-kick duties with his dominance in terms of touches and passes in the Newcastle midfield, and he looks the most likely to emerge with attacking points and Bonus.
Ashley Young
While Stewart Downing and Darren Bent also present attacking options in the Villa lineup, Young remains the most influential force in Gerard Houllier’s outfit – contributing both goal attempts and crosses and key passes. He’s also a major force at set-plays and will be expected to take on spot-kick duties – both of which could be a factor. The possible absence of Blackburn’s Chris Samba through illness only strengthens Villa and Young’s potential this weekend and with injuries at the back, Houllier’s side may well need at least a couple of strikes to earn three points.
Raul Meireles
The fourth midfield spot was reserved for Everton’s Tim Cahill, but continued doubts over his fitness means that he is a gamble going into the Goodison clash with Sunderland. Rivals for this position included Jon Walters (on my bench) and Kieran Richardson, but Meireles gets it off the back of sustained form and the fact that Liverpool look likely to spoil West Ham’s clean sheet at Upton Park. Meireles has enjoyed a remarkable run of goals and is also a creative force in the Liverpool midfield, both from open play and set-pieces. Steven Gerrard’s return could see a possible change of role but regardless, the Portuguese looks a strong enough proposition.
The Forwards
Carlos Tevez
Such is the influence of Carlos Tevez on City’s attacking play, even the prospect of deployed in a wide role to accommodate Edin Dzeko, against a Fulham defence that will provide a stubborn barrier, is enough to warrant his inclusion. Together with David Silva’s trickery from midfield and Kolarov’s delivery from the left, Tevez is likely to be the City’s main route to picking the lock on Mark Hughes’ defence.
Dimitar Berbatov
Three Untied players in a gameweek which includes two away games may seem folly but, after scanning the fixture list, my view is that United are one of few teams who have the chance of return more than 2 goals in the gameweek. I see Alex Ferguson’s men returning points in both games and, while Berbatov is not assured of starts – I feel he will get the nod in a 4-4-2 at Wigan and in a 4-5-1 at Stamford Bridge, where Wayne Rooney could well find himself out wide. That, and his price tag, gives Berbatov the edge for me. A close run thing and perhaps a gamble.
