While the Premier League rested it’s weary head to absorb the internationals, the odds boffins at Paddy Power were still on the hunt – constantly on the look out for factors and statistics that could sway their judgement. Let’s take our usual scan of their defensive and attacking reckoning ahead of the gameweek to see if their smart thinking can influence our last minute tinkering…
Who Will Keep a Clean Sheet?
- Arsenal 1.90 (BLA)
- Man City 2.00 (SUN)
- Chelsea 2.20 (stk)
- Fulham 2.50 (BLP)
- Man United 2.50 (whm)
- Everton 2.70 (AVL)
- Newcastle 2.75 (WOL)
- Birmingham 2.80 (BOL)
- Liverpool 2.87 (wba)
Five points, two places and a game in hand separate Arsenal and Man City at the top end of the Premier League. This narrow gap mirrors the zenith of this week’s Clean Sheet market, as both title chasers weigh in at around even money. Arsenal face Blackburn with a 0.80gch (goals conceded at home) average, whilst Man City play host to Sunderland with a 0.73gch average.
Man City look the more likely to keep a cleanie according to those season averages, but Roberto Mancini’s side are unsettled by defensive injury and without Kolo Toure; there’s a something in the air to suggest that Asamoah Gyan and Danny Welbeck could have some joy for the visitors. Arsenal meanwhile are always vulnerable to a set-play and in Chris Samba and Ryan Nelsen, Rovers have the weapons to exploit that. Once again then, our top clean sheet options both look shaky.
Chelsea travel to Stoke this week, and looking at their season long form it would be hard to pick a winner. Stoke have conceded a goal a game at home and have a 1.60gsh average, whilst Chelsea match their defensive record and edge a little better with 1.67gsa (goals scored away). It seems like an open game that’s likely to yield goals, especially with Stoke scoring eleven in the last four home matches. Paddy may well be riding on the inspiring form of David Luiz than burying themselves in the form books for this fixture.
Fulham, Man United and Everton slip in beneath Chelsea, none of which show anything out of the ordinary as far as stats go. Fulham look the strongest option here – they have a season average of 1.07gch but, in the last five at the Cottage, they’ve shipped just a couple of goals. That’s impressive stuff and indication that Charlie Adam and Blackpool will need to dig into their reserves and defy the odds yet again to return to the seaside with a point or three.
Anytime Goalscorer
- R Van Persie 1.50 (BLA)
- C Tevez 1.72 (SUN)
- B Zamora 1.80 (BLP)
- M Chamakh 1.83 (BLA)
- N Bendtner 1.83 (BLA)
- S Nasri 2.00 (BLA)
- F Torres 2.10 (stk)
- C Dempsey 2.10 (BLP)
- Andy Johnson 2.10 (BLP)
- A Arshavin 2.20 (BLA)
- J Hernandez 2.20 (whm)
- W Rooney 2.20 (whm)
- E Dzeko 2.30 (SUN)
- M Balotelli 2.30 (SUN)
- D Drogba 2.30 (stk)
- C Fabregas 2.30 (BLA)
- T Walcott 2.30 (BLA)
- M Dembele 2.30 (BLP)
- J Beckford 2.40 (AVL)
- D Berbatov 2.40 (whm)
- J Defoe 2.50 (wig)
- N Anelka 2.50 (stk)
- L Best 2.50 (WOL)
- L Suarez 2.50 (wba)
- A Carroll 2.50 (wba)
- D Bent 2.60 (eve)
- J Beckford 2.62 (AVL)
- F Lampard 2.70 (stk)
- P Lovenkrands 2.70 (WOL)
- S Ameobi 2.70 (WOL)
- R Van der Vaart 2.70 (wig)
Having been passed fit to take on Blackburn, Robin Van Persie looks justified as Paddy’s overwhelming favourite to find the net. Although Paul Robinson has been hailed as a great bargain keeper this season, he has managed to let in 11 goals in the last three away fixtures, helping Blackburn’s overall defensive average to reach a whopping 2.53gca (goals conceded away). The form and stats point to an Arsenal victory with three or more goals with Van Persie surely likely to be amongst them.
Carlos Tevez has been out of form of late, and perhaps earns his place in the “Anytime Scorer” rankings due to reputation built on past showings. As per the “The Watchlist Updated – City In Freefall” article, Tevez has struck just once in nine apperances and has found it difficult to gel with impetuous Mario Balotelli and new signing Edin Dzeko.
Bobby Zamora has been out for much of the season, and has returned in the style he ended his magnificent European season last year with a goal and an assist in his last two. Paddy fancy him to make a mark against Blackpool by offering odds on – Big Dunc brought you more on his prospects in this morning’s “Differential” – if he starts, he looks a good prospect.
Samir Nasri and Clint Dempsey are the highest ranked midfielder’s this week. Nasri has managed an impressive ten goals over the campaign so far, but only one assist. Dempsey however, trumps both these statistics with ten goals and three assists, making him perhaps more value for money. Mark certainly thought so, he placed £4 on the American to notch the first goal against Blackpool in last night’s “Fantasy Flutter”. Both Nasri and Dempsey are in the Scout Picks too.
Paddy’s Scout Specials
Last night’s Fantasy Flutter will have drawn your attention to a whole array of Paddy Specials for this weekend. You can get markets on the likes of Aleksandar Kolarov, Seamus Coleman, Clint Dempsey, Samir Nasri and Robin Van Persie ahead of the gameweek’s fixtures. Check out the “Flutter” article for more details.
Paddy’s Money Back Special
Paddy is at the Emirates for the weekend’s money back offer. If Samir Nasri scores the last goal of this game, Paddy will refund all losing 1st/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on the match
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