→ The 2014/15 season was Sergio Aguero's best ever for Fantasy returns. Seven of his goals/assists and 36 of his FPL points came in two meetings with which club that year? Scout Betting
8 December 2011 466 comments
Mark Mark
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It’s time once again to slope into the bookies and purr over their markets, examining the latest odds from our friends at Paddy Power to see if they can shape our Fantasy thinking going into another gameweek, with sneak peak at the Scout and Money Back Specials thrown in…

Clean Sheet Odds

TeamOddsTeamOdds
Man United1.72Tottenham2.75
Liverpool1.90Swansea3.00
Arsenal2.20Fulham3.00
West Brom2.29Bolton3.40
Sunderland2.62Norwich3.40

One glance at this market, and those that follow, confirm Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal as the sides to back going into the weekend fixtures. Having kept four clean sheets in the last five, United are clear front runners with Paddy for a shut-out against Wolves at Old Trafford. The trick for Fantasy managers is, of course, to find a source of points from Alex Ferguson’s defence. As mentioned in our Watchlist Updated article earlier this week, Phil Jones remains the weapon of choice and with Nemanja Vidic now stricken by his midweek injury, Jones would appear an almost certain starter. The question is, will United maintain their defensive form without Vidic at the heart of the back four? Paddy lengthened their odds overnight but still have them as firm favourites for a shut-out.

Liverpool are well fancied at home to QPR, while Arsenal are third favourites – although it must be said that confidence in a clean sheet at home to Everton is not too strong. Indeed, West Brom at home to Wigan come close, ranking fourth in Paddy’s odds to offer Fantasy managers food for thought in the budget defensive bracket. With good creativity, we’re liking Nicky Shorey as an option here – expect him to get close to Scout Picks selection on Friday evening.

The Martin O’Neill factor may have something to do with Paddy’s outlook on Sunderland’s prospects of a clean sheet against Blackburn, they’re fifth favourites here, despite the fact that Rovers have scored in each one of their away games this term. We’re slightly surprised that Paddy would opt for the Black Cats over Swansea, who also rank below Spurs in terms of their clean sheet chances. Tottenham are at shot-shy Stoke, while the Swans host Fulham at the Liberty Stadium, having conceded just 2 goals at home all season.

Perhaps the most sobering odds concern Chelsea (3.40) and Man City (3.75) – clearly Paddy fancy goals in this encounter, with both sides boasting long odds. Fantasy managers going into the weekend holding Vincent Kompany, Micah Richards or a Chelsea defender may well be pondering short-term transfers, particularly as City host Arsenal next weekend.

Team Goals Odds

Team1+ Goals3+ Goals
Man United1.022.00
Liverpool1.042.29
Arsenal1.072.87
West Brom1.113.50
Sunderland1.123.60
Tottenham1.144.20
Chelsea1.204.50
Bolton1.205.00
Norwich1.204.50
Newcastle1.255.50

United dominate the goalscoring stakes – and it’s interesting to see that, despite scoring more than one goal just once in their last nine games, they are far more fancied to score three goals or more than the likes of Arsenal and Spurs, who have both been scoring for fun of late. Those Fantasy managers pondering moves for attacking talent within United’s squad certainly have the backing of the bookies then.

Again, Sunderland’s odds are of interest. Paddy feel that they are more likely to score against Blackburn than Spurs are at Stoke- indeed, Martin O’Neill’s side are also thought to be more likely to fetch three or more goals than Harry Redknapp’s side at the Britannia. That’s sobering stuff for those backing Spurs heavily going into the weekend. Those holding on to Rafael Van der Vaart in the hope that he will work his way back into Harry’s lineup will be assessing those odds with interest – clearly Paddy feel that the Stoke defence will present an obstacle that will restrict Tottenham’s attacking potential. That’s also reflected in the “Anytime Scorer” odds below.

West Brom are again well placed in these team goals odds – ranked fourth favourites to score one or more against Wigan – making them more likely to notch than Spurs, Chelsea and City in Paddy’s eyes. Like Shorey in defence, the likes of Chris Brunt and particularly Shane Long, are worthy of attention here.

Those backing the Newcastle attack and, in particular Demba Ba, will notice that Paddy has Sunderland, Bolton and Norwich all ranked above the Magpies in terms of their chances of scoring. Again, this is reflected in the Anytime Scorer odds below.

Anytime Goalscorer

ForwardsMidfielders
PlayerOddsPlayerOdds
Rooney1.44Nani2.29
Welbeck1.61Young2.40
Van Persie1.66Walcott2.80
Suarez1.66Arshavin2.80
Bellamy2.00Rodriguez2.87
Long2.29Adam2.87
Odemwingie2.29Van der Vaart2.87
Adebayor2.40Kuyt2.87
Defoe2.40Sessegnon3.00
Bent2.60Bale3.25
Bendtner2.62Sinclair3.30
Ba2.75Tchoyi3.30
Morison2.80Dempsey3.30
Klasnic2.80Lampard3.60
Aguero2.87Walters3.60
Yakubu2.87Valencia3.75
Sturridge3.00Downing3.75
Agbonlahor3.00Brunt3.75

Paddy continue to back Wayne Rooney to break the shackles and rediscover his goal threat. The United man is the strong favourite to find the net this weekend, with team-mate Danny Welbeck currently his nearest rival. Robin Van Persie ranks third and, rather surprisingly, shares his odds with Liverpool’s Luis Suarez. The inclusion of Craig Bellamy in Paddy’s top five offers Fantasy managers further food for thought – he and Welbeck are clearly new names to consider this weekend.

West Brom’s Shane Long, along with team-mate Peter Odemwingie are further mid-price considerations that are well backed by Paddy. Their odds are shorter than Tottenham’s Emmanuel Adebayor – again, perhaps a surprise given Spurs’ current attacking form.

Further down it’s again sobering for Sergio Aguero owners that the likes of Long and Norwich City’s Steve Morison are more favoured to score this weekend. Demba Ba’s odds are also surprisingly long given the support he’s had this week in terms of transfers in. He’ll go to Norwich with heavy Fantasy investment on his shoulders, as will Blackburn’s Yakubu – his odds of 2.87 look generous given that Rovers will surely fancy themselves to score, despite a possible improvement of the Sunderland defence under Martin O’Neill.

Nani is the strong favourite amongst the midfielders to notch – providing further evidence to support the switch from Van der Vaart to the United man. The Dutchman is still amongst Paddy’s favourites to find the net this weekend, with the Arsenal double act of Theo Walcott and Andrei Arshavin above him and the Liverpool trio of Dirk Kuyt, Maxi Rodriguez and Charlie Adam next in the odds list.

Again, Paddy appears to cast doubt over Tottenham’s ability to translate their form into goals at the Britannia and it’s surprising to see Gareth Bale out at 3.25 for an anytime goal. Bale has been the most transferred in player in the FPL so far this week – Paddy appear to feel that there are plenty of other midfield options more likely to return a goal in the gameweek.

Fantasy Football Scout Specials

Our Fantasy Flutter markets are already live over at Paddy Power. You can get a sneak preview of our selection of Scout Pick related bets right here. These include markets on Jose Enrique, Chris Eagles, Nani and Demba Ba. We’ll bring you more on these in our Flutter tomorrow evening.

Paddy’s Money Back Specials

Paddy have a host of refund offers on show for the weekend. They start at the Stadium of Light for Martin O’Neill’s first match in charge. If O’Neill witnesses four or more goals, Paddy will refund all losing first/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast singles on the match. Paddy are also paying back all losing first/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast singles on the Stoke vs Totttenham clash, if Peter Crouch nets against his old club.

Down at Stamford Bridge, Paddy are risking refunds if there’s a last gasp goal. If a goal is scored in the last five minutes of the Chelsea vs City clash they will again refund all losing first/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast singles on the match.

Register and Bet £10 And Get £20 Free

If you’re new to this betting lark and new to Paddy Power then you can take up any of these odds and offers and get yourself a bonus. You can sign up via this site and get a free £20 when you register an account and bet a tenner.

Finally of course, we should state that all these offers are only available to those aged 18 and over and are subject to Paddy Power’s terms and conditions. Also, if you’re going to bet, always gamble responsibly.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

466 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. seanie3
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    VDV & Ramsey for Bale & Nani - 4pt hit

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    1. Chris_White
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      Don't

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    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      Why lose VDV now?!!! You've had 4 weeks to get rid and are waiting until he starts a game?! Madness.

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    3. Tim Canterbury
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      na probably wont pay off. hold on and do it free next week if nani scores

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  2. Suarezchomper
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    Was there any news as to why Dyer went off at half time last week?

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    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      Could be left on the bench this week. See the tweet on the home page

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  3. Suarezchomper
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    Stoke been Englands biggest team 😉

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    1. Suarezchomper
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      I'm sure there was a comment here from Granville just a second ago

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      1. Shipstontrev
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 11 days ago

        There was, but it has disappeared...

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        1. Suarezchomper
          • 15 Years
          14 years, 11 days ago

          off to the scoutcast i go

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  4. IceMan DB
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    Any chance of Jones being rested tomorrow?

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    1. IceMan DB
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      on Saturday*

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    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      Lindegaard

      Smalling-Ferdinand-Jones-Evra

      Valencia-Carrick-Fletcher-Nani

      Rooney-Wellback

      All imo, obviously.

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      1. Ryan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 11 days ago

        Jones is a more natural RB than Smalling. Smalling is a more natural CB than Jones (because Jones just loves to get forward

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        1. Tim Canterbury
          • 14 Years
          14 years, 11 days ago

          doubt smalling would start at cb over jones. think jones would be a more competent cb and just wont be able to get forward much

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          1. Ryan
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            14 years, 11 days ago

            I don't think limiting Jones's attacking ability is such a good idea. He scored two goals in his last two games. We need him to be involved in the attack. Smalling offers nothing going forward, only corners really

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      2. Tim Canterbury
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 11 days ago

        think you'll be right mate. defo think smalling and lindergaard have a chance of starting

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      3. villian-ty
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 11 days ago

        I think Evans will start. Fergie doesnt believe in 2 youngsters at the back

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    3. UnderstandablyDistraught
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      Hope not. Someone has to sail that ship of fools

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      1. IceMan DB
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 11 days ago

        After the injury to Vidic i'm sure Fergie's definitely going to be more cautious with his players now- considering that I think Ferdinand is the most likely to be rested.

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    4. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      It's pretty unlikely

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  5. Shipstontrev
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    and Fulham, probably,

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  6. JoeySamSam
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    Who to get instead of Ramsey and Drenthe?

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    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      Similar price range?

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    2. Tim Canterbury
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      larsson and walters best value in that price range imo

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      1. JoeySamSam
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 11 days ago

        yeah already got Larsson

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  7. Hansel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    Ramsey -> Walters or Kompany -> Jones??

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    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      Yes IMO

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    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      Kompany > Smalling for me.

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      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 11 days ago

        (but why get rid of Kompany?)

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    3. Tim Canterbury
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      id do the first one and try to get jones as well as kompany if you can. no reason to get rid of kompany. been scoring decent points all season and no reason to think he wont carry on doing so

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  8. Ryan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    Welbeck or Long?

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    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      Was looking at that move too earlier in the week. Love Long's fixture this week (WIG) and his next 2 aren't bad either (bla, new), albeit away.

      In the end, it was a toss up between Welbeck and Yakubu, and with United's poor form going into a Wolves game that won't be as easy as it appears, meant I sided with the Yak. 8 PL goals already, on pens, everything goes through him (or he goes through everything!) and fixtures are great.

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    2. Chris_White
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      I like Long here, actually

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      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 11 days ago

        If I was taking a one week punt, I'd consider Long(c) at home to Wigan. 2 goals in 3 games since his return from injury.

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        1. Ryan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          14 years, 11 days ago

          Considered that myself. Would I really captain him over RVP though, hmmm. Everton could prove a tough nut to crack for Arsenal

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    3. Tim Canterbury
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      welbeck

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  9. Chris_White
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    Getting rid of Ramsey next week, have 9.4 to spend

    Currently considering one of the two following options:

    Option #1: Yaya Toure - great form, and his price would give me more freedom to upgrade elsewhere.

    Option #2: David Silva - obviously a better FPL prospect in the long term, but limits my option elsewhere.

    If I decide to go for Silva, I'll probably wait a week and do something like VDV > Bale & Ramsey > Silva (This is really only an option to me if VDV stays partly out of favour as he has become a differential for me in my minileague)

    Thoughts?

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    1. Tim Canterbury
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      id go for the last option unless vdv scores good points then reconsider

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      1. Chris_White
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 11 days ago

        Yeah that's probably what I will end up doing

        If so, I'll probably play 4-3-3 next week and bench Ramsey

        (Back four would be Enrique - Jones - Simpson- BAE)

        Would you play Ramsey away to City over any of those?

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        1. Tim Canterbury
          • 14 Years
          14 years, 11 days ago

          simson maybe but ramseys been scoring poorly for a while so probably more chance of a cleanie from simp than points from ramsey

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  10. villian-ty
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    Worth doing Fox -> Nani 4 point hit?

    Vorm (Krul)
    Kompany Evans Brown (Simpson Ward)
    Silva VDV Dyer Walters (Fox)
    RVP(C) Ba Adebayor

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    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      ... and bench Dyer? Yes.

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    2. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      Yes

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    3. Tim Canterbury
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 11 days ago

      not really. nani looks in decent form but until he starts scoring not worth a hit

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  11. Twisted Saltergater
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    *** NEW POST (Scoutcast!) ***

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  12. The Mousa is Loosa
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    Anyone considering dropping City defenders to the bench this week? I'm thinking of playing:
    Jones Simpson Enrique (Kompany, Naylor)
    Thoughts?

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  13. Big_Andy_GAWA
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    Hi Guys,

    Will there be any price increases or decreases tomorrow at all ?>

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  14. ASAP Rocky
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    Vorm - Ruddy

    Jones - Enrique - Simpson - WIlkinson - Brown

    Bale - Silva - Brunt - Drenthe - Ramsey

    Rooney - Adebayor - RVP

    Was thinking of doing Rooney > Ba & Ramsey > Adam

    Would leave me 2.6 in the bank. What ye think?

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  15. Deicide
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    Vorm (Cerny)

    R Taylor Assou Kotto Jones

    Walters Larsson Bale Silva

    Adebayour Vp (C) Ba

    2.1 in bank

    What u think?

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  16. twoofthree
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    The injuries are starting to kick in, and I have some decisions to make.

    Here's my team:

    Given - Scszeny
    Ward (wol)- S Taylor (new) - Richards (mcy) - Jones (mun) - Warnock (avl)
    Hoolahan - Milner - Sinclair - Eagles - Walcott
    Sturridge - RVP - Adebayor

    I've just seen that Richards is only 50/50, which means I have 3 injured players. I'd be forced to have Jones, Warnock and Ward as my rearguard. . . and Wolves are playing at Man U!!

    So reluctantly I'm going to have to sell either Richards or Taylor.

    Which should I sell, and who should I replace him with?
    I have 0 in the bank.

    It will also cost me 4 points since I used my free transfer to bring in Sturridge.

    So I need some advice.

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  17. Darren Caskey
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    Worth a 4p hit before next GW?

    Kompany -> Smalling
    Ramsey -> Bale
    Adebayor -> BA

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  18. tomstigers
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 11 days ago

    WillDarren Fletcher start for Man U this weekend?

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