With Gameweek 29 behind us, we pay homage to Villa’s talismanic Belgian, acknowledge the resurgence in form down Loftus Road way and contemplate investment nearer the bottom of the table as the battle for survival heats up:
The Player
The six-fixture headache that was Gameweek 29 forced Fantasy managers into somewhat reassessing our options, with a handful of targets receiving increased interest prior to Saturday’s deadline. Despite back-to-back blanks in his previous couple of matches against Arsenal and City, Christian Benteke was drafted in by over 62,000 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers – his second highest haul of investors this season.
In a crucial away clash against fellow-strugglers Reading, the bustling Belgian rose to the occasion. Benteke grabbed Villa’s equaliser and also collected a couple of bonus points in the 2-1 win as Paul Lambert’s troops moved three points clear of the drop zone with nine games to go. If Benteke can replicate his returns from the previous nine, Villa have plenty cause for optimism – he’s averaged 6.1 points per game between Gameweeks 21-29, thanks to seven goals, an assist and 10 bonus points.
Indeed, with 12 strikes and four assists to his name, he has played a part in 16 of the 24 goals (or two-thirds) Lambert’s side have notched when he’s been on the pitch – a ratio superior to any other regular frontman and an overall contribution that could ultimately prove the difference between top-flight football and a drop to the Championship for the midlands outfit.
With form firmly on his side, Benteke also has the fixtures to maintain his rise up the Fantasy rankings. Next up is a run of three home games in four – QPR, Liverpool and Fulham all pay visit to Villa Park and with spot-kick duties also boosting his appeal, Benteke has already been picked up by over 9,000 FPL managers this week – the bandwagon continues to roll along relentlessly, reduced fixture list or not.
The Team
A 2-1 win at Southampton in the previous Gameweek was perhaps a signal of intent. Saturday saw Harry Redknapp’s side triumph in another proverbial six-pointer, this time seeing off Sunderland at Loftus Road to register back-to-back victories for the first time this term. Suddenly, the situation doesn’t seem quite so ominous for the R’s, as they move to within four points of safety – intriguingly, this upturn in form has coincided with the omission of Adel Taarabt from the starting XI.
Dropped for the first time since Gameweek 7, the Moroccan, according to Harry Redknapp, “suddenly wasn’t fit” for the Black Cats showdown, allowing Junior Hoilett to continue his impressive showings on the left. The former Blackburn man has now supplied an assist in each of his two appearances since stepping in for Taarabt, though he wasn’t the only one to provide a crucial contribution. Bobby Zamora’s recovery from ankle and hip injuries was key, allowing Redknapp to field a front two and pair the former Fulham man with Loic Remy – with Zamora leading the line, the Frenchman buzzed around up top and fired home his third goal in four starts since arriving at Loftus Road in January. Andros Townsend was the star performer, though, supplying a goal and pair of assists in his third start in four since arriving on loan from Spurs – dropped last week as Redknapp went 4-3-3 and fielded Remy on the right, he looks to have cemented his first-team berth with a stunning display.
Clearly, for all his side’s recent resilience, Redknapp’s troops won’t escape the drop by simply grinding out draws. Incredibly, QPR had scored just four times in 10 matches prior to Gameweek 28 – with five goals in their last two, a change in approach has reaped reward as their manager acknowledged post-match:
“That’s the best I’ve seen us playing going forward. We played 4-2-4 and went for it and I knew we would either win or get turned over because we were so open. We just have to keep being positive…we’ve given ourselves a chance.”
The next three fixtures could well afford the R’s to build their new-found momentum. Trips to Villa and Fulham are followed by a home clash against Wigan and with Redknapp keen to maintain a more offensive approach, his side will be confident of producing the goods against three of the worst defences in the top-flight as they look for goals to seal their survival.
The Talking Point
With Villa and QPR rising to the occasion last weekend, it serves a reminder of the potential on offer nearer the foot of the table as the scrap for survival intensifies. To an extent, the reduced Gameweek schedule forced us to change tactics and focus on the likes of Benteke and Remy but as Wigan demonstrated around this time last season, the battle to beat the drop can inspire relegation candidates to produce a level of returns way above their Fantasy price tag. Victor Moses was instrumental in helping the Latics escape the relegation trapdoor last time out, with a series of devastating displays in the final two months of the 2011/12 season making a mockery of his initial 5.0 price tag.
As the table begins to settle, certain teams will perhaps start to lose their edge and fall into the comfort zone – with a Capital One Cup in the locker and 40 points already on the board, Swansea, for example, have less reason to battle to the very last in every league match now. Having scored in one of his last nine, Michu’s owners may decide now is the time to look around for a replacement – certainly, with an ownership in excess of 50%, shedding the Spaniard may have increased appeal for those willing or needing to take chances.
Similarly, 30% owned Marouane Fellaini has dropped in performance; scoring in just two of his last 10 appearances, the Everton man is another with no more than pride to play for from here on in, though a double Gameweek 33 will no doubt boost his potential, providing he can avoid another booking before then. Newcastle’s recent displays, on the other hand, highlight what’s on offer when survival is on the line. An influx of January signings, with Moussa Sissoko registering returns on five of six appearances, has been instrumental in their about-turn in form – the Magpies have climbed the table thanks to three back-to-back home victories but with 33 points still only on the board, they have plenty still to play for.
In addition to fluctuating form, rest and rotation is also a real key factor now. Again, Swansea are a good example here – while Michu struggles to maintain his early-season form, it’s Luke Moore who has risen to prominence. He has scored both of his side’s last couple of goals after being handed a rare opportunity to impress, with the Spaniard shifted from lone forward to “the hole” in the last couple of fixtures. While Laudrup has the luxury of trying out different attacking variations, the likes of Benteke, Remy, Sunderland’s Steven Fletcher, Southampton’s Rickie Lambert and Wigan’s Arouna Kone can be pretty much guaranteed 90 minutes week in, week out between now and the end of the season.
The same is now likely to apply to Adam Le Fondre in light of Brian McDermott’s dismissal at Reading. Despite scoring 10 times – double the tally of any Royals player – Le Fondre was utilised mainly as a sub due to McDermott’s penchant for 4-4-1-1 with a target man leading the line. The Russian’s recent three-match suspension has allowed Le Fondre a first-team return and, while he has failed to notch in his two starts, his eye for goal may prove decisive over the closing Gameweeks.
Although Fantasy faith in the likes of Robin Van Persie, Luis Suarez and Gareth Bale is as resolute as ever, last weekend’s returns illustrated there is scope to widen our nets and look beyond the popular picks. As Harry Redknapp himself has shown, playing it safe at this point in the season is likely to end in disappointment; with top-flight safety on the line, the need to go for goals is already serving us up some intriguing differentials with the potential to turn many a mini league on its head.
