There’s nothing quite like a double Gameweek. The build-up generates such anticipation, the promise of a points avalanche often drowning out logic and sense to create a tide of optimism. It’s all too easy to start surfing this, particularly when this hope arrives so late, offering up players that, even in a regular Gameweek, are more than capable of fetching handsome profit. For many Fantasy managers, this Gameweek will be the season’s last hurrah, the opportunity to gamble and bridge a gap. That is, until Gameweek 36.

And yet, a double Gameweek can be a cruel mistress. In life it’s so often true that, the more you invest, the more you can expect to reap and yet, the double Gameweek can turn such a theory on its head. With each transfer spent, Fantasy managers ratchet up the potential pain threshold that little bit more. Once the whistle blows, all the planning and the anticipation can quickly evaporate when that player you ousted for Leon Osman bangs in a 25-yarder.

In fairness, the double Gameweeks have treated us well to this point. Memories of Arsenal’s star turns delivering back in Gameweek 23 will be powerful persuaders. With Theo Walcott, Santi Cazorla and even Olivier Giroud sticking to the script back then, the case to support their acquisition for their two home fixtures this time around seems unshakable.

A week earlier, in Gameweek 22, it was Chelsea who came good – goals for Demba Ba, Eden Hazard and three assists for Juan Mata justified the outlay. Even when Liverpool stalled at home to West Brom in Gameweek 26, they delivered five goals against Swansea to repay those who gambled points.

History is on our side, then. It suggests that our double Gameweek hopes are not unfounded, that throwing points the way of Arsenal, United and Everton assets will come back with significant profit. When such opportunity comes our way at this stage in the season and following on from one of the most depressing Gameweeks in memory, the temptation to gamble becomes almost overwhelming.

So should we throw ourselves into the reckless abandon of points hits? While the odds on strong returns on investment look good, analysis of the transfer habits of the top players suggests that caution is required.

Julian Zipparo, currently top of the Fantasy Football Scout League and the overall top Fantasy Premier League player has made just one transfer so far. He looks set to go into the Gameweek with six double Gameweek players (four plus two transfers), including two defenders in Leighton Baines and Guy Demel. Immediately below him in the Scout League and the overall rankings, Kelvin Travers has also made one transfer, presumably adding to his existing roster of five double Gameweek assets. Sanjeev Karki, third in the Scout League and fourth in the world, has just three double Gameweek players, although with four transfers made (including two free transfers), we can presume that figure is boosted.

The trend amongst the top players, then, appears to be one of caution. While there could still be transfers to be made, at the time of writing, only four of the top ten FPL managers have spent points – none, apart from Sanjeev has currently spent more than four.

With the best players either concealing their hand or playing safe, where does this leave those of us pondering eight or even twelve point hits?

This particular Fantasy manager has already made his move – eight points have been spent with assets acquired that look set to repay at least six of those points. My decision was made easier by the fact that I had three players with a blank fixture, while the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Marc Wilson are far from assured starters. Once again, then, I’ve managed to justify my decision to spend, just as I did back in Gameweek 29 – a week that, ironically, saw me bring in two of the players that I’ve now cast aside.

While there’s clearly a lesson to be learned from the top players, it’s obvious that, in their lofty position with so much at stake, they’re not about to gamble precious points.

My plight is a world away from that situation. Off the back of six red arrows in seven Gamweeks, the promise of an opportunity to turn things around and make up ground is irresistible. And yet, just as I pressed the button, the doubts started closing in.

For me, the approach to the double Gameweek recalls memories of teenage years, when a Saturday night party appeared to offer a ticket to the promised lands. The anticipation and the fall-out that can follow feels much the same.

The planning, the anticipation, the imagined scenarios, the nervous energy and sweaty palms. Back then, hopes were high and, just for a while, past failings and disappointments are shelved and concealed along with the acne.

I usually spent such parties squatting in the corner, critisising the music and swigging cider. Sadly, it always seemed that those who tried the hardest, who invested most, ended the night going home with a hangover and the dull ache of disappointment for company.

Just an hour ago, whilst contemplating further changes, I recalled such moments as I sat starring at Guy Demel in my team alongside a 12-point hit. I couldn’t help but wonder if all the preparation, all the expectancy has ultimately just set me up for a bigger fall.

Eventually, I gave up on those parties. A few years later, I discovered Fantasy football. I guess I still like to pin my hopes on a long shot.