I’ve started to analyse the first few Gameweeks of my previous Fantasy seasons, to look at how I made my first few transfers and the justification for doing so. This revealed that fluctuating player prices proved to be a key factor, alongside players not playing at least 60 minutes, suspensions and injuries.
Picking players who are not nailed on in the starting XI is largely my fault. Suspensions are probably half my fault as some players have a strong track record of bookings and should be avoided, although some with a clean record can surprise owners with an unexpected booking. Laurent Koscielny was an example of this last August against Aston Villa. Player injuries are hard to predict so I don’t feel at fault for falling victim to them.
However, player prices, and specifically falling value, is a more interesting factor. I found that a price fall early on can seem far more devastating and be a major factor in making a transfer. By losing 0.1 on a player, after Gameweek 1 this can feel like losing 0.5 because if a 7.5-priced player drops to 7.4, you can only replace that player with a player priced 7.0 or below without taking a hit. This means that there is often desperation to clear out any player who is looking like they will drop in price. If three or more of your players look like they are going to lose value, then this is where there is an unbelievable temptation to play your wildcard, and if you do, then the planning you did over summer can now be deemed unfruitful and the wildcard won’t be used for a double Gameweek.
The most likely to drop
Does the player have little or no Premier League experience? If they player did nothing in the first game that could be an indicator that you have invested in a dud. Others are certain to think that too and look to off load swiftly.
Midfielders and attackers are also more susceptible to price changes. If Tim Krul concedes two goals against Manchester City in Gameweek 1, he probably isn’t going to lose 0.1 because people didn’t expect too much from a player like this for this particular Gameweek. Instead most people will be focussing on tweaking their attack (midfielders and forwards) who typically score higher than goalkeepers or defenders. Attacker and midfielder prices can plummet, while defenders and goalkeepers can survive a poor early run of form.
Mid-priced players are another group susceptible to price changes. As we saw with Michu in his Swansea heyday, a player in the 5.5 to 7.o price range can rocket in value as they are accessible to everyone. Non-performing premium attackers in people’s teams can be traded down to this value and also similarly priced attackers in people’s teams can be traded directly for this particular player. This can lead to a mass sell-off of assets in and around this price bracket so keep an eye on any players you have in this price range.
Fixtures can play a part too. If a player’s first game is at home, followed by two away games (e.g. Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Stoke and West Brom) and the attacking player does nothing in the first game, there is a strong temptation to sell for a player who will play home games in Gameweeks 2 and 3.
Stoke and West Brom players such as Bojan Krcik are among the most at risk as they have two away fixtures in Gameweek 2, and 3 and in Bojan’s case, have no Premier League pedigree to ease their owners’ fears. Owners of Arsenal new boy Alexis Sanchez could also get twitchy if he fails to deliver against Crystal Palace, with an away game against Everton to follow.
The least likely to drop
I believe that, as far as premium teams go, Chelsea have the best chance of not experiencing price drops due to the fact that after Burnley away in Gameweek 1, they play Leicester at home in Gameweek 2. This to me means that even if widely held assets such as Diego Costa, Eden Hazard, Cesc Fabregas, John Terry or Gary Cahilldo nothing in Gameweek 1 against Burnley, the fact that they have Leicester at home next would make people less likely to sell these players and experience price drops. Except for Costa, Chelsea’s key men also have Premier League experience to back them up.
As for cheaply priced teams, Hull look good due to kind opening fixtures and a Gameweek 2 home game against Stoke, who didn’t have a great away record last season.
Steady defensive picks will be less likely to lose money or rise. If Caulker from QPR keeps a clean sheet at home to Hull in GW1 and gets 6 points, he probably isn’t going to go up by 0.1 in GW1, if he gets one or two points in GW1, he probably isn’t going to lose 0.1 either. Steady picks in defence will allow you to focus your transfers on attacking options where the transfer values are likely to rise.
Which teams, or specifically players, do you think will experience a price drop after Gameweek 1?
