[sbu_large_image] Opinion
15 September 2014 1450 comments
Paul Paul
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With Hull and West Ham set to complete the Gameweek 4 action later this evening, we assess the lessons learned from the nine matches played out. Chelsea’s increasingly porous backline, Brendan Rodgers’ tinkering, Southampton’s form under Ronaldo Koeman, Tottenham’s in-form midfielder and United’s multitude of options all arrive on Monday’s lunchtime menu.

Pellegrini seems unconvinced by Dzeko again…
Having started 17 of City’s final 20 league matches in 2013/14, the Bosnian was instrumental in helping his side to the title but already it seems he’s far from certain to feature. Even with Alvaro Negredo farmed out on loan, Stevan Jovetic sidelined and Yaya Toure rested due to jet lag for the weekend trip to Arsenal, Manuel Pellegrini named the Bosnian as a sub – Dzeko has dropped to the bench to accommodate Sergio Aguero in each of the last two now, and despite last term’s heroics, it seems that – once again – his pitch time is anything but secure.

Chelsea’s attacking impetus comes at a cost..
A thrilling 4-2 win over the Swans maintained Chelsea’s swashbuckling start to the season. While Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas run riot in the final third, Jose Mourinho’s backline continues to frustrate their owners and, Branislav Ivanovic’s attacking endeavours aside, there seems little point in eyeing up the Blues’ defence right now. Chelsea have conceded six goals in their first four matches – put into perspective, they afforded their opponents just seven strikes in the final 16 matches of 2013/14. With City, Arsenal and United in the next five, shut-outs seem unlikely.

So much for a St Mary’s crisis…
The doubters were circling after a summer exodus but the Saints’ comprehensive thrashing of Newcastle highlights the impact of new boss Ronald Koeman. After four rounds of fixtures, Southampton have the second most resilient defence and third most impressive attack, and the likes of Ryan Bertrand, Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle have the fixtures to flourish further, with the latter emerging as the stand-out candidate in the mid-price bracket right now.

Rodgers can’t afford to bench Sterling..
In seasons gone by, Liverpool could almost always rely on Luis Suarez to come to the rescue when the chips were down. With the Uruguayan legging it to Barcelona and Daniel Sturridge injured yet again, Brendan Rodgers’ side mustered just one shot on target in an insipid home display against Villa that saw them lose for the second time in four Gameweeks. The decision to rest Raheem Sterling will haunt his manager – given that Mario Balotelli could barely have looked less interested in the proceedings, it’s becoming clear that, if the Reds are to replicate last term’s second placed finish, the youngster has to be on board from the first whistle.

United are still a work in progress…
A change in system and the introduction of a handful of new signings helped Louis van Gaal’s side to their first win of the season but still there are more questions than answers regarding the Red Devils right now. Pre-match, the Dutchman conceded a host of injuries in defence was partly the reason for the tactical switch, whilst Radamel Falcao only warmed the bench as a result of jet lag. United certainly look to be finding their feet but we’re still far from certain over the Dutchman’s starting XI as we head towards Gameweek 5.

The Foxes and Clarets are made of stern stuff…
While Harry Redknapp’s QPR lick their wounds after a second mauling in three matches, the other two promoted sides are quietly finding their feet. Rolling up to the Britannia to face a Stoke side that had previously beaten City on their own patch, few gave Leicester a chance but Nigel Pearson’s side emerged with a win and clean sheet to take their record to one defeat in four. Having also held Everton and Arsenal, The Foxes are showing just why they topped the Championship last term, while runners-up Burnley have been equally resilient of late, with a goalless draw at Palace earning them a second successive clean sheet. At 4.0 apiece, Liam Moore and Michael Duff are becoming increasingly appealing in the budget bracket, with the latter now earning four bonus points in his last two appearances ahead of some kind upcoming fixtures.

…as are Villa…
One goal conceded in the first four fixtures underlines the remarkable turnaround in defensive fortunes for Paul Lambert’s side this season. The Midlands outfit shipped 61 goals last year – only the three relegated clubs afforded their opponents more – yet despite the absence of injured skipper Ron Vlaar, they were still able to repel the Merseysiders with a thoroughly disciplined display. With four of last term’s top five in the next four Gameweeks, though, Villa have stiffer tests to follow after Liverpool’s lacklustre display at Anfield.

Chadli could be Pochettino’s new Lallana…
The Belgian continues to thrive under his new manager after netting his third goal in as many matches. Pochettino’s arrival at Southampton sparked a turnaround in fortunes for both Adam Lallana and Jay Rodriguez before he legged it to the Lane this summer and so far Chadli seems the one player to have benefitted most from Spurs’ new style of play. While Christian Eriksen and Erik Lamela alternate on the right and through the middle, Chadli continues to rack up the points on the left of the attacking midfield three and is now level on points with Aaron Ramsey in the Fantasy Premier League game.

Warnock is a Mariappa fan…
The former Watford man has now started each of Palace’s last two matches since the arrival of Neil Warnock. With the new manager shifting Joel Ward back to the left of defence for the visit of Burnley, Mariappa retained his spot at right-back as the Eagles earned their first shut-out of the season. Granted, having shipped three goals at Newcastle in Gameweek 3, Palace’s backline is yet to convince us they are worthy of investment in the post-Pulis era, but if they can push on from Saturday’s clean sheet, they may yet find a place in our plans.

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1,450 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. DO RE MI MATA
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Anybody else going with Hutton, Moore and Duff as 3rd def? Plenty I'd guess.

    1. Mavric Marco
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I will if i do Dummett > Duff this week 🙂

  2. Littlebitwizardoföz
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Debuchy to:

    A) Clyne
    B) Bertrand (think Clyne is worth extra 0.2m)
    C) Azpi

    Cheers

    1. DO RE MI MATA
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Not C) and why B) when you think A) is worth it?

      1. Littlebitwizardoföz
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Just need some reassurance, I'm almost cert to go for Clyne but slightly tempted to go for a more expensive defender

    2. Mavric Marco
      12 years, 1 month ago

      A - He is 😉

      1. Littlebitwizardoföz
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Why not Chambers??

      1. Littlebitwizardoföz
        12 years, 1 month ago

        I don't fancy Arsenal's next 3 fixtures for CS's (I'm an arsenal fan myself), thought about it and think whilst he's cheap he won't score much, maybe after Chelsea away I'll bring him in

        1. Arse Craic
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Chambers is very attacking from right back…he's only played CB for Arsenal so far.

  3. Fratboy
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Pelle or Adebayor??

    1. Littlebitwizardoföz
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Pelle

    2. SENTI CAZORLA
      12 years, 1 month ago

      50/50

      1. Fratboy
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah agreed.

    3. Mavric Marco
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Pelle looks good, but Ade in a better team

      1. rickardinho
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Not too sure about that yet. Spurs have had piss easy fixtures apart from the Liverpool game.

    4. RyanC
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Tough one. I'd lean towards Pellè just because I have him. But it's close. Soton have the slightly better fixtures.

      1. Fratboy
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Very tough, can't decide.

  4. Mavric Marco
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Repost, had to do some work in work so didn't get an answer to my question.

    Dummett completely fallen out of favour..?

    No brainer Dummett > Duff this week then.

    1. mr messi
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Im thinking the same. Although he could maybe get another chance as Newcastle's defending has been dire.

      1. Mavric Marco
        12 years, 1 month ago

        True, I might just do Albrighton > Boyd and pocket the 0.1 🙂
        No other pressing transfers

  5. Mouth
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Besides the small price difference, is there any reason why everyone keeps choosing Bertrand over Clyne?

    1. Littlebitwizardoföz
      12 years, 1 month ago

      No, Clyne got 5 assists last yr in 1862 mins, Bertrand 0 in 1400 - he's far more attacking and offers a lot more, worth the extra 0.2m for sure

      1. OShaughnessy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Not exactly fair to compare the Chelsea Bertrand to the Southampton Bertrand.

        Further, when we look at the underlying stats* Bertrand has been the superior fantasy assest thus far.

        *Avg position, touches in the final third, chances created, etc...

        1. Mouth
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Bertrand played for Villa last season

          1. OShaughnessy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Apologies but, does this alter my argument at all?
            In fact, I think it may bolster it...
            🙂

  6. DonTheSpecialOne
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Cardiff City fans call on Vincent Tan to hire Tony Pulis.

    Pulis:
    "I have lived around Bournemouth and Poole for my entire managerial career, so taking a job in Wales would be a possibility if that situation arose.”

    Bye Ole, hello Tony? Or is he "too good" to grab a Championship side?
    Manager of the year and all last season..

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      12 years, 1 month ago

      He would never work under tan

      1. DonTheSpecialOne
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Why's that, he'll for sure get funds to bring in the players he want. Wasn't this a huge part of why he left Palace?

    2. The Machine
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Whatever tan decides will be the correct Decision

    3. dribbler
      12 years, 1 month ago

      maybe finance to build a good squad will be the thing he's looking for so Cardiff might be attractive for him

      1. DonTheSpecialOne
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        12 years, 1 month ago

        That was my first thought as well

  7. RyanC
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Oops, just realised I posted this on the old article. Forgive me for the repost.

    Who to play next week out of:

    Clyne (swa)
    Duff (SUN)

    Leaning towards playing Duff and benching Clyne, then again that hardly worked out when I benched Clyne away at 'Pool.

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Don't bench Clyne - just leave him there for the rest of the year. He'll get goals & assists galore 🙂

      1. Ludo
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Look at his fixtures from GW13... would be a brave man to keep playing him over that run!

        1. rickardinho
          12 years, 1 month ago

          I love when fixtures are bunched up nicely like that, from an FPL perspective. Makes it easier to pick players :). Better than Chelsea's alternating hard/easy run.

    2. Ludo
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Duff, I think. I'm playing Clyne over Rio - benching him has also backfired for me a couple of times - but I think Burnley look much more solid than QPR.

      1. RyanC
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers. Plenty to think about this week. Tough choices all round for next GW!

  8. TheSteel
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Im gonna captain Falcao. My season start cant get any worse

    1. Pasqualinho
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Ballsy.

      1. Pasqualinho
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Tough week to pick a captain, though. So it might be a good week to try it. No risk, no reward and all that.

    2. DO RE MI MATA
      12 years, 1 month ago

      What, so you're ranked around 3,228,930?

    3. Whazza
      12 years, 1 month ago

      That's a great argument

    4. Not Irish
      12 years, 1 month ago

      😆 Respect

    5. The Machine
      12 years, 1 month ago

      It can if you captain him

  9. Pringle
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Who should go first? Dzeko or Terry?

    1. Whazza
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Dzeko

      1. 42 Rules
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Going with a new Oxford dictionary word created by FFS member, I'd say Dzeko because lack of "nailedonness".

  10. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Need to get some utd coverage ASAP... and also growing tired of Hazard's lethargy
    Option 1 or 2 below?

    1. Hazard -> Di Maria & save 1 FT for next week
    2. Hazard & Chester -> Mata & Rafael (Use 2FT's)

    Rest of team is below:

    Krul (Elliott)
    Clyne, NTaylor, Chester (Hutton, Duff)
    Hazard, Fab, Ramsey, Siggy, Sterling
    Aguero, Costa (Vaz Te)

  11. Everton Cleansheet Credentials
    roscola
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    12 years, 1 month ago

    I've been banging a drum since the start of the season about Everton's clean sheet prospects. It was fuelled by this piece over at statsbomb: http://www.statsbomb.com/2014/08/epl-2014-15-season-preview-everton-2/

    Long story short, last season Everton's expected goals conceded were well above what actually happened, largely because of some unsustainable heroics from Tim Howard. That author predicted a lot fewer clean sheets this season. And so it has come to pass. The Toffees have conceded more goals than anyone else, and that's backed up by their underlying stats. This weekend, they conceded six times as many shots in the box as their opponent West Brom 😯 This is what Martinez has wrought upon the Everton defence.

    What does that mean for Lord Leighton of Baines? I reckon you can halve his clean sheet count from last year and drop a few bonus points accordingly. Last year he scored 179 points. I reckon this year he will finish the season on around 130.

    To frame that, some points totals from last year:

    Chester = 115
    Ward = 123
    Zabaleta = 146
    Koscielny = 155

    So maybe you want to pay ~7m for that, maybe you don't. I don't claim that the evidence is damning. He *might* step up his attacking production to compensate for the missing clean sheets. I don't know but I lean towards that not happening. His output was quite stable for years and didn't increase last year under a more attacking manager.

    1. Mavric Marco
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Baines will still score well with assists and the odd goal even if everton drop a few more CS.

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        More detail required 😉

        Do some arithmetic to convince me. I did some arithmetic, and came to a an unappealing total. Why do you think it's wrong? Do you think he will score more and assist more than any other year? Why?

        1. Mavric Marco
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Lol!
          He's one of the most attacking defenders in the league.
          Everton play more down the left than right for this very reason.
          Most of the set pieces fall to him.
          He's on penos.

          1. roscola
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            12 years, 1 month ago

            That was true last year plus clean sheets. The same is true this year minus clean sheets. The only thing that will change will be fewer clean sheets (IMO, of course).

            Do you think he will score more goals than any previous season? Or more assists than any other season? Why do you think that?

            1. DO RE MI MATA
              12 years, 1 month ago

              When Lukaku becomes more consistent for example. Same with Barkley and Mirallas. A lot of talanted young players who *could* step up this season and produce more = more assists for Baines, 5 is not a lot actually.

              Also, even if he does get you only 150-160 points you'd most likely never play the likes of Chester on a regular basis while Zab brought you 0p so far as well. If you don't want to shift around too much and spend FTs at your back there aren't that many players who can be taken into account. Maybe Utd players in a while since they can focus on the league.

    2. DO RE MI MATA
      12 years, 1 month ago

      such a downer

    3. DonTheSpecialOne
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Interesting... If I was a mod I'd green my own post at this moment.

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Only an absolute rotter would abuse his power that way

        1. DonTheSpecialOne
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          12 years, 1 month ago

          😀

      2. Evs
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        I'll do it 🙂

        Great post Roscola

        1. Evs
          • Has Moderation Rights
          12 years, 1 month ago

          I've always felt that Martinez sides have never been ones for cleanies !

          1. roscola
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Cheers Evs 😀

            And you'd have been right - last season was just an illusion

        2. DonTheSpecialOne
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Oh, you're around, I thought he did it himself 😉

          1. roscola
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            12 years, 1 month ago

            I was going to but Evs beat me to it 😆

            1. Evs
              • Has Moderation Rights
              12 years, 1 month ago

              .... And with a hangover 😆

    4. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Baines needs a good 150/160 points to justify 7m. He would be a disaster at 130 points. But for the record, I think he'll get his usual 170/180 points, because he'll be involved going forwards in a big way.

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        130 points is based on the same number of goals and assists as last year (5g, 5a) but half the number of clean sheets.

        He needs to score quite a lot more goals and more assists than last year to compensate for the lost cleanies.

    5. Van Dal
      12 years, 1 month ago

      great post

    6. dribbler
      12 years, 1 month ago

      good post

    7. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      12 years, 1 month ago

      So this makes Jagielka a complete no go zone as well. Another vintage dullard pick bites the dust.

    8. Matthewaldred
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Howard (hamer)

      Blackett. Dier. Jagielka (Bertrand. Clyne)

      Fabergas. Mata. Dyer. Ramsey. (Ki sung,)

      Naismith. Costa. Rooney C.

      Thoughts as I've just used my wild card on this????

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Well, since you have Howard and Jagielka, I don't think it's very good based on the above analysis 😀

        Dyer's not a great pick either IMO as he appears in this table:
        http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/public-stats-tables/view/1517/

        The rest are decent.

    9. Kings of Lyon ★
      12 years, 1 month ago

      How many pens did he convert last year? I also think that having Lukaku and Etoo will help him in getting assists. Agree with the lack of CS tho

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        He had Lukaku last season and got fewer assists than the season before. I believe only one of Lukaku's goals last season was assisted by Baines. Don't think he likes Baines's style of service, I think he prefers the ball to feet. Could be totally wrong on the last point.

        1. Kings of Lyon ★
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Hes a big tall beast he must like it in the air 🙂

      2. Ludo
        12 years, 1 month ago

        He got three in the league last season, has converted 13 from 13 in the PL overall.

    10. OShaughnessy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      And let's tack on the *Fantasy Death* that is the Thursday night Europa league games...

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah, that too. Europa is poison.

    11. Ludo
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Good article that, and good post this. Half the clean sheets though? To me, that seems too far the other way. Everton will beat smaller teams, picking up clean sheets along the way, as these sides will struggle to finish their chances, and Martinez actually has a pretty good record at shutting up shop vs big teams when he wants to. I expect Everton to concede more goals, and most likely to get fewer clean sheets, but if Everton win just two more penalties than last season, for example, that's another 12 points for Baines, plus almost inevitable bonus right there. It's quite hard to say definitively that Everton's defensive performance dropping off makes him a poor pick.

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        You could be right, very hard to put numbers on a decline. But the stats are VERY clear - did you see the graphs in the article I linked? The decline is marked.

      2. Piggs Boson
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Exactly. A more attacking side is more likely to pick up pens, goals from open play, and assists. That will come with bonus. It might balance itself out.

        1. roscola
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Perhaps. But it didn't happen last season. Last season Baines had his third worst attacking season in the last 4 seasons.

        2. roscola
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          12 years, 1 month ago

          *second worst attacking season in the last 4 seasons.

      3. Munchen KFC
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Good post and good repost.How many penalties did he score and was that above or below penalties awarded last season?

    12. Piggs Boson
      12 years, 1 month ago

      You could argue that the less clean sheets, the more attacking points.

    13. Beavis
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Great post mate.

    14. Pasqualinho
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I'm not so sure. The author may have good stats, but you've just arbitrarily halved Everton's clean sheets. And Baines still ends up with 130 points. That's not terrible for 6.9 million, and if you happen to be wrong and they get one or two more, then he becomes good value.

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Yep, as I said to Ludo, it's very hard to put a number on a decline. It might not be as bad as I think (I have a soft spot for Everton so I might be being overly pessimistic). Martinez might even address the problems.

        And/or Baines might get a few more penalties. But I don't think 6.9 for 130 is good value, really.

        1. Pasqualinho
          12 years, 1 month ago

          You're twisting my words - I said 'not terrible'. I do think, however, that 140 pts is a good return for 7.0 million. Not many 7 mil players get over 120 - and that's the appeal with Baines.

          1. roscola
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Hah, sorry Pasq, that wasn't deliberate, just being a bit loose with my own words (probably because I have trouble gauging what's good and what isn't!).

            That's fair and with the points business I'm speculating well beyond the original nub of my post, which is simply 'The Everton defence went rotten so don't expect the same points as the last few years'. Go in with your eyes open and all is well.

    15. Will - Fantasy Football Hub
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Good post - Although he is a bap magnet - even more so with the new system not sure he will lose that many baps.

      These chances conceded could also be due to the way everton defence is set up - i.e. they are more "difficult chances" than other teams but thats just speculation.

      Plus Tim Howard is still a beast 😀

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        So far, his only BAPs have come from a game with a CS. Small sample size, of course.

        And yes, Tim is a monster of a keeper 😀

      2. Will - Fantasy Football Hub
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Also wasn't he injured for part of last season?

        1. roscola
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Yeah, about 4 games out I think

          1. Will - Fantasy Football Hub
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Thought so - thats about another 20 or so points. I remember is ppg being very high last year (well above many strikers and mids).

            For me he is still essentail for evertons gw8 run

            1. Courtois in the Rye
              12 years, 1 month ago

              Six games missed with an injury iirc. That's a significant amount for someone who is a nailed on pick when fit.

              Also defensive returns are harder to predict than attacking ones, to the point where even a whole season may not be an accurate representation of the threat. Penalties is the obvious area where 6 point returns (and the associated bonuses) are likely to fluctuate year to year.

              1. Phaze 1
                12 years, 1 month ago

                Defensive returns are harder to predict that attacking returns? I assume you mean it the other way round right?

                1. Courtois in the Rye
                  12 years, 1 month ago

                  Ah - it wasn't phrased very well.

                  What I meant was 'attacking returns from defenders are harder to predict that attacking returns from attackers'. Which is self-evident to some extent but also means that there is a lottery element to defenders with a threat such as Baines, Caulker, Vertonghen, Terry etc.

    16. Christina.
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I respectfully disagree.

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Fair enough Christina. I'm not claiming he's an absolute no-go, just that he won't be getting the same points you've been used to because:

        A) Everton will not be getting as many clean sheets as they used to
        B) He won't step up his attacking returns to compensate

        Do you disagree with A, B or both?

        1. Christina.
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Are you basically saying Howard won't be as good as last season?

          1. roscola
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            12 years, 1 month ago

            The guy who wrote the statsbomb article thinks so and I'd defer to his judgement (since I know very little).

            You can't say it hasn't panned out so far - conceded two to Leicester and a massive number of shots in the box to West Brom (who were just too poor to finish them).

            Arsenal and Chelsea you can forgive to some extent but those scorelines wouldn't have happened under Moyes. And not just Martinez's methods - you can also point to the age of their backline, Distin is 37 for the love of Dunc!!

      2. Christina.
        12 years, 1 month ago

        6 CS for Everton over 38 weeks?

        That's to little.

        1. roscola
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          12 years, 1 month ago

          I don't think so, personally, the way they've been going. But yeah, I might be being overly pessimistic. Still, I'm 100% confident that it will be lower than last year by a significant extent.

          And I don't see any reason to think that he will score or assist more to compensate. He had a fairly quiet year last year under Martinez and my working hypothesis is that it's Lukaku's fault (at least, where assists are concerned).

    17. BigManBakar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Hey Rosco,

      You do mention that they conceded six times as many shots as West Brom. However, there is another stat worth looking at called 'big chances conceded' which was 0 last week for Everton.

      Imo big chances conceded is a better indicator because shots inside the box fails to take into account the pressure that was being put on the player who took the shot (whether he was being closed down or not)

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Indeed. I have tended to look at BCC myself. But SiB are still a useful metric, and if you read the original statsbomb article, their model (which I believe takes into account shot position) is pretty unequivocal about it - they expect a big hike in goals conceded this season.

    18. roscola
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Ludo makes a good point about his points total from last season being hampered by six weeks on the sidelines:

      http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/8293361

      Baines PPG by season (rounded to one decimal place):

      2013-14: 5.3
      2012-13: 4.7
      2011-12: 4.1
      2010-11: 4.7
      2009-10: 3.7

      Makes a good case. All I'm really saying is that you shouldn't expect the same from him this year because there will be fewer CS and accordingly fewer bonus points. He might still justify 7m ... but I'm not sure.

    19. SneakyPete
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Only one person decides Everton cleanies for near future and He is not Howard,Jagielka,Distin or Baines himself

      John Stones EFC career so far as a centre back with..

      Jagielka - P2 W2 2 clean sheets.
      Distin - P9 W8 5 clean sheets.

      P.S - The only worrying factor for me is Europa League.

    20. applebonkers
      • Has Moderation Rights
      12 years, 1 month ago

      fear this could be the season sylvain benjamin button distin and jagielka finally creak. not sure about halving the clean sheets though, do definitely expect a little drop though. it's about time everton had a good penalty season though, not sure baines has ever had even 5 in a season for example, on paper pace and trickery like mirallas, mcgready, pienaar, barkley etc really should lead to more pens

      1. SneakyPete
        12 years, 1 month ago

        True about Pens. Stones will play more as well

    21. Pepin - RIP Absinthe
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Great stuff, thanks Rosco

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers Pepin 🙂 Watch him bang in a brace-a-week now 🙂

  12. Arse Craic
    12 years, 1 month ago

    So after choosing Sterling captain (my rival had Costa), I need 8 points from Chester and Bruce not to play.

    Possible?

    1. Andre W
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Unlikely, but with Chester anything is possible

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Yep - you'll be fine, as Chester will get 15 points tonight, Hull win 1-0 with a Chester goal from a Corner.
      Chester gets 1 Goal, 1 Cleansheet, 3 Baps.
      Jobs a goodun.

    3. rickardinho
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I was in the same position yesterday with Caulker, needing 8 to win, 7 to draw.

      Needless to say that failed miserably, but you have a better chance in a better fixture

  13. Andre W
    12 years, 1 month ago

    UCL RMT

    Leno(3.0)
    Cahill Moreno Garay (Rakitskiy Mbemba)
    Sterling Fabs Pogba Calhonglu (Behrami)
    Ronaldo Messi Munain

    0 ITB

  14. Game of Stones
    12 years, 1 month ago

    I'm calling it, in about 2-3 months time we all want Benteke in our team 😉

    1. SENTI CAZORLA
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Walcott*

    2. Mavric Marco
      12 years, 1 month ago

      He could have a good end to the season once he fully recovers from his injury

    3. rickardinho
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I envisage myself going for Walcott after GW8 if he's back then. Benteke scores in streaks and that December run for Villa is nice too. He'll definitely make the 7-9m bracket more interesting if he starts scoring again thats for sure.

  15. the black sheep
    12 years, 1 month ago

    ive got 5.3 to spend on my 3rd striker position. Bojan or Jutkiewicz or anyone else?

    1. Andre W
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Nugent maybe

    2. augz123
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Free up 0.2 for Ulloa after the United-game

      1. the black sheep
        12 years, 1 month ago

        im on wildcard at the minute but really cant find any way to free up another 0.2 for ulloa. My mids are Fab, sterling, di maria, ramsey, siggy

  16. WHY ALWAYS MESUT?
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Current Team:

    Begovic - McCarthy
    Ivanovic - Shawcross - Moreno - Chester - Clyne
    Fabregas - Di Maria - Sterling - Siggy - Boyd
    Costa - Balotelli - Naismith

    Got nothing ITB and 1 FT. Thoughts?

    1. Mavric Marco
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Looking good,
      Wait until after the mid week games before even thinking about making a change.

      1. WHY ALWAYS MESUT?
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks - that's what I'm thinking. Will bring in a cheap 4m defender in the coming weeks sometime. Waiting for a second price rise (all my defenders have one already).

        Long term plan is bringing in Welbeck and one of Rooney/Aguero/Falcao over Naismith and Balo.

        1. Mavric Marco
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Sounds good.

    2. Game of Stones
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Good team, no transfers needed

      1. WHY ALWAYS MESUT?
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks!

        Would you play Ivanovic next week btw?

        1. Game of Stones
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Yes, big goal threat!

    3. rickardinho
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Nice team mate. I'd save the FT

  17. augz123
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Thinking of saving my FT with this team to give me more freedom next round:

    Krul

    Moreno - Chambers - Ferdinand (Vlaar, Wisdom)

    Ramsey - Mata - Siggy - Fabre (Young)

    Costa - Rooney(C) - Pelle

    Thoughts? 🙂

    1. augz123
      12 years, 1 month ago

      0.6 ITB

    2. Whazza
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Save

      1. augz123
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks. No brainer after the Debuchy injury really

    3. Mavric Marco
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Me too, looks good with the Roo capt

  18. Nobodinho
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Any good midfielder below 5.5m?

    1. Pinoche
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Schneiderlin @5.6?

  19. Andre W
    12 years, 1 month ago

    i'm thinking Debuchy and Jovetic (both injured) to Moore and Rooney. Good transfers?

    1. Pinoche
      12 years, 1 month ago

      What's the rest of your team like?

        1. Pinoche
          12 years, 1 month ago

          You've already made 2 transfers 😕

          1. Andre W
            12 years, 1 month ago

            oh god, didn't realise I had already done them :p

  20. keresmi
    12 years, 1 month ago

    I would like to replace Ramsey/Sterling to Di Maria. It's a good move? And who should I sell?

    1. Game of Stones
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I'd sell Ramsey because of their fixtures + CL. United did only play QPR though, but Di Maria looks great!

      1. keresmi
        12 years, 1 month ago

        OK, but Liverpool's attack without Sturridge doesn't look good.

        1. Game of Stones
          12 years, 1 month ago

          It was one game, and against a solid Villa side. The game would've been different if Sterling was playing from the start

    2. Absinthe Minded
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Ramsey of those 2
      no other way?

      1. keresmi
        12 years, 1 month ago

        I've got Siggy, Cesc and Chadli in my squad

    3. Kowalski
      12 years, 1 month ago

      crazy ha

  21. Ser Football 42
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Courtois
    Shawcross, Clyne, caulker

    Any suggestions on what to do with my defense
    I'm thinking about switching to

    Forster
    Ivan, N. Taylor, Bertrand

    1. Game of Stones
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Good switch if you're on a WC

  22. Pinoche
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Sterling doesn't start a game and he's the most transferred out milf this round

    1. Evs
      • Has Moderation Rights
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Welcome to Fantasy errrr..... Football, I think (MILF?) ?! 😆

      1. Pinoche
        12 years, 1 month ago

        😀

    2. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      really? 😯

      1. Pinoche
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Yup 34k have got rid of him for Di Maria I'd imagine

    3. Mavric Marco
      12 years, 1 month ago

      He'll start every game from now until forever after Rodgers little stunt on Saturday

    4. Kowalski
      12 years, 1 month ago

      He will make them suffer!

    5. DonTheSpecialOne
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      😆 madness

  23. Moin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 1 month ago

    My Team:

    http://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/1965/event-history/4/

    Thinking of Taking out one of Hazard// Lamela// Silva and doing P.Jones --> Baines

    Is a hit required? or just change P.Jones to someone else?

  24. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Defence is shite,
    WC as we know more about the new players now?

    Krul, Gilks
    Dummett, Wilson, PvA, Hutton, Moore
    Ramsey, Fabregas, Siggy, Sterling, Albrighton
    Aguero, Costa, Rooney

    1. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Like your mid and forw..don't know how to improve your defense without hits

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        12 years, 1 month ago

        That's the why I'm considering WC.
        Would like to get Forster, Rafael, ShawX, di Maria and Welbeck.

    2. Old Boots
      12 years, 1 month ago

      ...Or ditch one of your forwards for Pelle/Ade and gradually start building up your defence (starting with Dummet & Krul)

  25. Frank Black
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Anybody thinks that McCarthy will still take the spot over Green?

    1. Mavric Marco
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Long term maybe but not yet

  26. FantasTic
    12 years, 1 month ago

    how does this WC team look like?
    Krul(Guzan)
    Ivanovic,Duff,Naylor(Moore,Hutton)
    Fabs,Ramsey,ADM,Dyer,Tadic
    Rooney,Cotsa(Naismith)

    1. rickardinho
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Rotating 3 4.0 defenders isn't a strategy i particularly like, especially as you also have another 4.5. Not enough offense output there.

      Missing BOTH sterling and siggy is a risk, but i like it .

  27. pax888
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Who would you get rid of to accommodate Di Maria?

    Fabregas
    Hazard
    Ramsey
    Sterling

    Front 3 is currently - Costa, Rooney, Naismith.

    1. Fratboy
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Hazard

  28. Fratboy
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on this WC team? Already hit the button FYI.

    Krul (Mannone)
    Taylor Dier Duff (Wilson)(Wisdom)
    Di Maria Fabregas Sterling Siggy (Boyd)
    Falcao Costa Adebayor

    Still torn by Pelle or Adebayor but will decide closer to the time.

    1. Kings of Lyon ★
      12 years, 1 month ago

      If you went Pelle who would you upgrade? I like that team btw

      1. Fratboy
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks mate, probably upgrade a defender.

    2. King Nil Miss ✩
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Why are you getting Falcao when you have Rooney at 0.6 cheaper?
      Prefer Pelle long term.

  29. King Nil Miss ✩
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on Wilshire? Same as always, hot and cold? Not nailed on?

    1. Mavric Marco
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Jumped up little sh*t

  30. Mavric Marco
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Doing some H2H stat munching...
    Both Liverpool and Man Utd have good away records against West Ham and Leicester respectively.
    Rooney Captain and Sterling Vice for me looks like a win win!
    🙂

    1. rickardinho
      12 years, 1 month ago

      United's away record against leicester was before Rooney joined the club..... counts for nothing

      1. Mavric Marco
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Rooney joined United 2004, same year Leicester were last in the Prem.
        We won 1-0 😉