[sbu_large_image] Scout Notes
12 December 2014 2492 comments
Paul Paul
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We arrive at Gameweek 16 of this season’s Scout Picks this evening, where Mark, Jonty, a different member of the community and I pick an XI for the upcoming round of fixtures. Each week, our line-ups go head-to-head and over the course of the season we’ll be keeping a tally of the points as we go along. Once again, we’ve kept the budgets at 83.5 apiece for our starting line-ups.

The Community – Managed by Dusan Citizen

gw16picks I have picked West Bromwich’s Ben Foster, due to his high chance for a clean sheet against an Aston Villa side that is still weak in attack, even with the return of Christian Benteke. Leighton Baines looks a good bet for a clean sheet, too, up against a QPR side that have only scored twice on the road this season and are without the suspended Charlie Austin. Gary Cahill is my Chelsea defender of choice against another struggling team, Hull, whilst City’s Aleksandar Kolarov is my luxury risk. I think he’ll start against a hapless Leicester side and the champions can certainly do with his extra fire power, with Sergio Aguero absent through injury.

With a rest in midweek and solid recent statistics, Alexis Sanchez is still the main threat for Arsenal, up against a Newcastle side down to their third choice goalkeeper. Eden Hazard’s fine home form makes him a must this week and Stewart Downing’s excellent away displays make his a shoo-in too. In addition, Diafra Sakho’s return for West Ham gives Downing even more chance of racking up assists. Stoke’s Jonathan Walters is my midfield punt, unfashionable but bang in form.

Wayne Rooney at home against Liverpool looks a good bet for points, as does Everton’s Romelu Lukaku against QPR. With Aguero out my final pick is his deputy Edin Dzeko, who along with Kolarov should have no problem dismantling the Foxes.

Jonty

gw16picks I’ve turned to Rate My Team to unearth the best budget keeper this week. The Professor’s computer has placed West Brom’s Ben Foster at the top of that list, as the Baggies square up to a Villa side that has scored just four goals on the road. With Christmas approaching and a match in midweek, I fear that my usual Chelsea defensive pick Cesar Azpilicueta may earn a rest and have opted for the well-rested John Terry instead just to be safe. Liverpool will be left punch drunk from their Champions League exit and I’m backing The Puntmaster’s pick of Jonny Evans and a Manchester United clean sheet. Leighton Baines is testing my patience but against a QPR side that has been largely ineffective on the road, I feel he’ll at least get a clean sheet, even if his attacking points have dried up.

Sitting at the summit of my Goals Imminent Members Table is Yannick Bolasie, whose attacking statistics are so impressive that even this Brighton and Hove Albion fan is willing to take a punt on a Crystal Palace player. Suspended in Europe, there are high hopes for Yaya Toure this week. The Ivorian has three double-digit FPL points hauls in the last four Gameweeks and now has penalties all to himself. Eden Hazard’s five goals at home demands his inclusion.

I’ve opted to double up on Swansea returns this week, with Gylfi Sigurdsson and Wilfried Bony facing a Tottenham side that has already conceded 12 goals on the road. As well as Bony, my attack also features two other mid-price Sergio Aguero replacements. Edin Dzeko has no current form, so I’m opting for the nostalgia of last season where he ably deputised when the Argentine was injured. With four goals at home already and QPR without a single away clean sheet, Romelu Lukaku has good latest statistics to back his inclusion.

Mark

gw16picksChelsea and Everton provide the backbone, with fixtures that really should deliver goals and defensive points for both sides. That means a Scout Picks recall for Branislav Ivanovic against Hull and Leighton Baines for his meeting with QPR – both were rested in Europe and should be bombing forward in the Gameweek.

I’ve paired that attacking duo with perhaps the ultimate forward-thinking defender – Aleks Kolarov. I’m not brave or silly enough to acquire him for my team but, as a short-term pick, he will have his moments and I think the trip to basement-dwellers Leicester could be one of them. With Vincent Kompany back, a City win with a shut-out looks on the cards.

Frazer Forster is between the sticks for me – I just don’t see Burnley finding a way past the organised Saints’ defence now that Toby Alderweireld is back from injury.

Hazard is a given in midfield, having notched in the last four Stamford Bridge outings. I’ve selected two in-form prospects alongside him in Palace’s Yannick Bolasie and City’s Samir Nasri. The latter will be brimming with confidence ahead of his trip to the King Power Stadium, while Bolasie, along with Wilfried Zaha, will carry the main threat to Stoke at Selhurst Park.

My final midfield spot goes to Gylfi Sigurdsson. I opted against Wilfried Bony up top so Siggy is a worthy compromise; hugely effective at the Liberty Stadium with a goal and seven assists so far, he’ll have a point to prove against Spurs on Sunday.

Up front, Diego Costa is recalled because I can’t see anything but 2-3 goals for Chelsea at home to hapless Hull; that should ensure that Costa is in profit. Similarly, I don’t see QPR keeping Everton out and it was a case of either Kevin Mirallas in midfield or Romelu Lukaku in attack: I opted for the latter.

The final spot goes to a “Differential” and my Scoutcast “Fantasy Island Risk” – Sunderland’s Steven Fletcher. He should start against the Hammers and I think the Scott will be the key figure for the Black Cats. At 5.3 in the FPL, only his fitness concerns prevents him from being a major consideration in the budget bracket.

Paul

gw16picks I’m tripling up on the top two for this weekend. As highlighted in yesterday’s Captain Sensible article, Chelsea versus Hull and City against Leicester are perfect examples of in-form attacks against out-of-sorts defences and both will fancy their chances here.

For the league leaders, Branislav Ivanovic’s raids down the right could come to fruition against the Tigers, whilst Eden Hazard and Diego Costa have both averaged over seven points per appearance in front of their own fans. Jose Mourinho will be looking for a reaction after last week’s loss at Newcastle and the Blues will surely come firing out the blocks.

City look equally enticing from back to front. I reckon Gael Clichy is due a rest, which should see fit-again Aleksandar Kolarov earn a start, and his raids down the left will torment Nigel Pearson’s side. Samir Nasri’s goal and assist in Roma underlines the Frenchman’s form, whilst Edin Dzeko, at 8.1, affords a route into the most prolific attack in the top-flight.

I’ve also opted for two Swansea players at home to Spurs. Gylfi Sigurdsson’s superb Liberty form should pose his former club problems aplenty, whilst Wilfried Bony has shown he’s a fixture-proof option in recent weeks and faces a backline with one clean sheet in eight attempts.

This leaves me three players to call upon. Ben Foster comes in as my cheap keeper for West Brom’s derby clash with Villa. Yannick Bolasie has fired at least five more shots than any midfielder in the last four Gameweeks, whilst Everton’s home encounter with QPR will surely bring Leighton Baines back into the points.

The Scores So Far

Mark emerged victorious in Gameweek 15 with a score of 47 points – Leroy Fer and Jan Vertonghen proved crucial to his win. Jonty took second with 43 points, whilst The Community – managed by Kurren – took third with 40 points, ahead of my miserable 33; doubling up on the Chelsea defence wasn’t such a clever move.

This means that after 15 rounds of fixtures, Mark leads with 872 points, followed by Jonty (864) and myself (855), with the Community on 748 points.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

  1. Dušan Citizen
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Guys, which one?

    A) Nasri - which leaves me enough money for Kompany for free next GW

    B) Silva - and get Mangala or -4 to get Kompany?

    1. Sponge-worthy
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      B kompany

      1. Dušan Citizen
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        So u think Silva is better invest, altough I will have to take hit to get Komp? 🙂

        1. Sponge-worthy
          • 13 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          In a long run, yes. If You bring nasri in now, the move to silva later would be a tad sideways..

    2. Jimmers
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      City defence is not where I would be investing

      1. Dušan Citizen
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Over this period, I will and will get Chelsea def after their fixtures turn bad.

  2. rickardinho
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    I posted this a couple of days ago and think it might be useful for many here who haven't seen it....

    --------------- A historical analysis of Man City CS's and what it means now ---------------

    Historical stats always need to be taken with a pinch of salt, but considering that City's defense has been largely intact for several seasons (i.e. Hart, Zaba, Kompany, Clichy, Kolarov have been there for years now) I think there is some validity in looking at historical data in this case.

    Here is a breakdown of their CS's, sorted by home/away:

    2011/12
    Home (11): SWA WIG EVE ARS STO LIV FUL BLA BOL WBA MUN
    Away (6): bla wba wig avl wol new

    2012/13
    Home (10): SUN SWA AVL REA STO FUL CHE NEW WIG WBA
    Away (8): whm che wig ars qpr avl swa rea

    2013/14
    Home (10): NEW HUL NOR TOT SWA CPL STO FUL AVL WHM
    Away (6): sto new nor hul mun cpl

    2014/15
    Home (2): MUN EVE
    Away (3): new avl sot

    As you can see, City have been very consistent in tending to get around 10 CS's at home every season. However, they have only got 2 so far this season, which can be explained by looking at the tough home fixtures so far this season:
    - LIV STO CHE TOT MUN SWA EVE

    On the bright side, their remaining home games look very promising and ripe for CS's:
    - CPL BUR SUN ARS HUL NEW LEI WBA WHM AVL QPR SOT

    Keep in mind also that City appear to have tightened up recently, getting CS's against Everton, Saints, and Roma in their last 4 games.

    With that in mind, I would suggest that having (at least) 1 City defender could be essential going forwards, and since Hart is the cheapest nailed-on way into that defense I turn my attention to him:

    1. Despite the relative lack of CS's, Hart is still ranked 3rd among all GK's, and could very well become the bona-fide No.1 FPL choice for the run-in as the CS's rack up.
    2. Note that he picked up 5 save points in some tough fixtures too (LIV ars TOTx2 qpr sot) including a penalty save, 1bap, and only got less than 2pts once.
    3. At 6.0 he is the cheapest (nailed-on) way into the City defense (Zaba&Kompany cost 6.4m), and could well be worth the extra 0.5-1.0m outlay on GK given the abundance of good home fixtures, especially so now that many of us have Aguero cash to spend.

    Would love to hear your thoughts! 😀

    1. Pinturicchio
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      This is a pretty good post, and I am now considering bringing in Hart, though I think goalkeepers are pretty terrible in FPL generally.

      1. rickardinho
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        I agree that they haven't been great this season apart from Forster, which is why I think an extra bit of money can go a long way there, especially as City's home fixtures are bunched up so nicely

    2. Tarzan
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Brilliant analysis, though Zaba seems a better option then Hart

      1. rickardinho
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        For me its a case of not wanting to spend an extra 1.2m on the Zabaleta option. I might have been tempted if Sagna wasn't there, but its too much for someone who could get rested. And besides, I have great fixtures with the rotating group.

        Hart+Elliot+Caulker +1.2m (rotating caulker with hutton and wisdom)

        vs

        Panti+Fab+Zabaleta

    3. _Freddo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Good article, I plan to double up with them next week, want to bring one in for a hit this week, ideally want Zabaleta but fear he could be rested this week so may go with Kompany and then go Zabaleta next week.

      So many people seem to be trying to go for some very uncertain attacking options from City for one reason or another when these next 5 fixtures scream clean sheets, might be safe to invest at the back and continue with Chelsea, Arsenal, Swansea, West Ham etc for attack.

      1. rickardinho
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        I agree. I may actually be tempted to get Zabaleta instead of Baines next week if I need money upfront for Christmas.

    4. SC not pearls before swine
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      I wouldn't say that a City defender is essential because other than Kompany, no is nailed on. Hart is a good option, but it's hard for a keeper to be essential at that price because they don't get BAPs/attacking returns very often, and for an elite club like City, save points are also unlikely. I do agree that City look ripe for some clean sheets based on their fixtures.

      I do have one question though, less relevant to your post, but more just musing. Are previous seasons' clean sheets the best way to predict future clean sheets even if the team is similar? Since one event can bust a clean sheet, I wonder if shots conceded/shots in the box conceded might be more predictive stats.

      1. rickardinho
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        I can see where you're coming from with the "essential" tag. What I meant by that was more that City defense is probably the best way to secure CS's and could prove to be a nice differential in the next 5 GW's, so key to getting ahead of the pack.

        I don't think save points are that important tbh. Hart got 5 save points, which isn't that far behind others, and CS's should more than make up for those.

        I'm not sure what the best forecasting method is, and I suspect there are stats that can go into more detail, but as I said historical stats can be very volatile so I think its more useful to look at generic trends rather than in detail over such a massive period of time. The fact that they have been consistent is encouraging though.

    5. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      I'd definitely go with Hart if I didn't already have Courtois (Hamer this week). He's the only one completely nailed apart from Kompany (4 YCs)

      1. _Freddo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Ah good shout, 4 YC's rule Kompany out for me.

  3. Pinturicchio
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    You are a little mad captaining Baines, but nothing terrible. The two Chelsea players are better options, but not by a crazy amount.

  4. Mílanista
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    8 picks 😯

    Someone hold me

    1. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Only 2 in the XI here 😆

      1. Woy of the Wovers
        • 15 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Same here. But 2 on the bench. I think that's a good result.

    2. The Light Knight
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Just 4 here, but I would add Dzeko and Nasri if they weren't for hits

      1. Mílanista
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        I am acquiring them for free, and a third City for a hit 😉

        1. Ginkapo FPL
          • 14 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          😉

        2. The Light Knight
          • 14 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Our Lord and saviour perhaps?

          1. Mílanista
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            11 years, 4 months ago

            He is coming to town.

            1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              11 years, 4 months ago

              You mad fecker. 😉

              1. Mílanista
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                11 years, 4 months ago

                When he doesn't play I have the great Hutton to cover 😉

                If everyone goes tits up I can Suk Young too.

    3. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      *hugs*

  5. Tarzan
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    The most fixture friendly GW in a long time. Cheers!

  6. The Gambler.
    • 16 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    SUPERSONIC
    Foster
    Ivanovic, Wisdom, Hutton, Azpic
    Sanchez Downing Hazard Sigurdsson
    Rooney, Benteke

    (Krul, *Austin, Marney, Duff)

    Take a hit to get Yaya or Silva?

    Downing or Siggy would make way?

    1. Toonzie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      ive dont siggy to yaya

      1. Toonzie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        done*

  7. Toonzie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    A) Yaya + Bony
    B) Siggy - Dzeko

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. zayedetta
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Yaya

  8. Citizen kano
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Fab kun out for hazard dzeko or wanyama kun fab out for hazard sanchez sakho pick plz

  9. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 16 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    RMT

    Panty Alnwick
    Ivanovic Clyne Hutton Wisdom Yun
    Yaya Hazard Sanchez Silva Downing
    Bony Dzeko Austin

    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      best team ever

    2. chocolove
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      WC team?
      looks good

      1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 16 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        yes

      2. chocolove
        • 15 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Whoa, triple city attack 😯

    3. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Good team. Forwards may not return what you hope for.

      1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 16 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        really? who is your pick?

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Sakho. And Kane, unless I crumble ... 😆

          But you should have Lukaku.

    4. KISSES
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Very nice, similar to mine

  10. demiurg
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    RMWCT

    Guzan/Pantilimon
    Cresswell/Naylor/Hutton/Yun/Wisdom
    Yaya/Hazard/Sanchez/Siggy/Downing
    Costa/Bony/Austin

    0.2 in the bank.

    Any obvious blunders?

    1. Tarzan
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Nice team though double Swansea attack is a risk

    2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Top work. Yun and Wisdom?

  11. thepuntmaster
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Steven Fletcher and Jonny Evans in various scout pick teams.... wow no pressure!

    Check out my latest punts article if you haven't already >

  12. coldblue
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Should I sell Sanchez for Nasri / Silva / Yaya?

    Sanchez is the only one I can sell to get cash for either of the options, or do I just keep him in my lineup for now?

    1. demiurg
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Keep Sanchez.

    2. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Keep Sanchez

    3. iCon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Just no!

  13. Pinturicchio
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Five scout picks (including the bench) is my lowest in a long time. This week should be interesting.

  14. Citizen kano
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Fab kun out for hszard dzeko or fab wanyama kun out for hszard sanchez sakho pick

  15. RubeRx
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    No Sanchez this week in any scout pick??

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Just the community.

  16. thepuntmaster
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Baines Bolasie Haz and Costa from those picks

  17. money face bandwagon
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    surprised to see mirallas not in any of the scout pick teams

    1. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Same.

  18. The Mandalorian
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    RVP not in the scout picks - disgusting!

  19. Easy-Conners
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Play Dummett or Chadli this week?

  20. McSauce
    • 16 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Lol at some of those scout picks.

    Kolarov are they well????

  21. EAGLES (0 Chelsea players)
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    The Dzeko love is unreal

    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      actually, they're real, and you can touch them

      ... wait... wrong movie scene...

    2. The Gambler.
      • 16 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Agree. He's awful.

    3. The ghost of a Pug's g…
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Last season he came to prominence in a massive way. I lost my ML dismissing him. I haven't got him yet, but it won't make that mistake again.

      I find there to be too many rotation issues with City ATM though.

      1. _Freddo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        The Christmas period is not the time to be picking rotation risks, surely Hart and Kompany are the only safe ones from a big squad like that.

    4. money face bandwagon
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      he's promising though

  22. The Gambler.
    • 16 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    I deliberated Lukaku and Benteke for days and went with Christian.

    Should I be worried about the Lukaku scout pick inclusions? Cos i am!!

    1. money face bandwagon
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      haha tbh i like my own picks more than some of those. so u should have trust in your own judgement

    2. _Freddo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      No, I went Benteke too, derbies have/can be free scoring, the big man will run riot.

    3. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Lukaku's probably only there because the scout picks are just for one game. Obviously they'd pick QPR at home over West Brom away, don't worry about it.

  23. goran
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    RVP, Rooney or Hazard captain?

    1. The ghost of a Pug's g…
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Haz

  24. toerag
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    evening all 🙂
    Got 4.4 to upgrade either Downing or Tadic or Siggy.

    Who do you suggest??

    I've gone for kun>Dzeko btw

    cheers

  25. Guidinho
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Fair to say that the scouts pick is very much in the fixtures > form camp.

  26. jwaltz86
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Hutton/Wisdom/Naylor

    Pick one to bench?

  27. zayedetta
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Hazard / costa / yaya best players for game week 16

  28. gooberman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    So the player who is averaging the highest PPG and at home, not in the scout picks? What have they been smoking?

    1. Pinturicchio
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      PPG is a bad stat, though.

  29. Jimmers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    So in 2 seasons we will have Friday night PL games. So the Saturday morning madness will move to Friday night.

    1. toerag
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      yay 🙂

  30. _Freddo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Coleman should have been in the picks this week over Baines, played in midfield last week and up against Yun or Traore, could be carnage.

    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      +1

    2. RubeRx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      picked him up this week =D plz come thru

      1. _Freddo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Me too, going Baines and Coleman, can't see QPR scoring and this will be a good game for Everton to refind their form because QPR are poor away.