With Bournemouthโs Callum Wilson and Leicester City wizard Riyad Mahrez currently the top ranked forward and midfielder in the Fantasy Premier League, itโs fair to say that, so far, this term has caught many Fantasy managers by surprise.
As the likes Sergio Aguero, Diego Costa, Wayne Rooney, Eden Hazard and Alexis Sanchez struggle to justify hefty price tags, we ask the burning question: is this the season to look beyond the template heavy-hitters?
Dufflinks (aka FPL 2014/15 champion Simon March) says…
Itโs difficult not to question existing Fantasy football logic given the bizarre start to the season. The value of underperforming heavy-hitters is, naturally, high on the inquest agenda. That said, I do think weโve seen situations in previous campaigns where, based on the first few Gameweeks, the game seemed to have radically changed, only for it to eventually settle into a more familiar groove. Despite everything weโve seen so far, I think reports of the death of the known heavy-hitters may have been greatly exaggerated.
Whether itโs hangovers from international tournaments, tough fixtures, poor form or just luck, itโs undeniable that the likes of Sanchez, Hazard and Aguero have delivered well below expectation so far. Yet itโs still hard to look past these players as having the highest point-scoring potential, be that in a given Gameweek or the season as a whole. Partly by virtue of the teams they play in, they will simply get, and create, more chances to score than even the best players in mid-table teams and long-term, I believe, this will make the difference.
A big part of Fantasy football has always been about identifying the low or mid-priced players who enable and compliment the more premium selections and, for me, this season is no different. Thereโs a degree of luck and foresight in any successful Fantasy football selections but a Fantasy manager can only have so much of each. While I canโt help but admire managers who made captain choices of Riyad Mahrez or Callum Wilson for their hauls in recent weeks, the success of this approach is likely to be unsustainable.
Picking these players is one thing, relying on them to score with the volume and consistency that would make them a long-term alternative to, say, Aguero is another. In a few weeksโ time, Iโm confident weโll see the more familiar faces at the top of the scoring charts. Itโs just a matter of staying patient and, of course, making the right choices.
Jonty says…
This international break is a time for some real soul searching among veteran Fantasy managers like myself. Now in my eighth FPL season, Iโve never known a start quite like this, where the majority of heavy-hitters have failed to perform. Crucially they have also failed me where it counts most โ the captaincy.
The crossroads that those like me now face is do I stick with the likes of Aguero and Sanchez, not only in my team but also as strong armband contenders, or do I go “maverick”, start captaining in-form players such as Andre Ayew and Callum Wilson and begin to shun heavy-hitters altogether.
While itโs tempting to take that step, Iโve decided to persevere with my tried and tested formula that has resulted in five top 10,000 finishes โ form a team around heavy-hitters and captain them when they have favourable fixtures.
My key reason for sticking is history, indicating that this season will pan out the same as the others with Aguero and his pricey counterparts prevailing.
Amongst those who have scored 20 goals or more in the Premier League over the last three years, the expensive names always rule supreme. Last season the anomaly that was Harry Kane was the only cheap surprise package able to join Diego Costa and Aguero in this elite 20+ bracket.
The season before, no “maverick” pick was able to match Yaya Toure, Daniel Sturridge or Luis Suarez in reaching the 20-goal mark. In 2012/13, Robin Van Persie, Suarez again and Gareth Bale were the only members of this group. History says that for all of Callum Wilsonโs promise and all of Andre Ayewโs attacking intent, they will face a tough task in matching the proven reliability of the template heavy-hitters.
The trick, though, is getting the right heavy hitters, but therein lies another “burning question”.
Andy85wsm says…
My first thought when answering this question is โnoโ. My second, and slightly longer answer is โprobably notโ.
As with any season we have to adapt and sometimes thatโs difficult for veterans of the game who are used to playing in a certain way. Last season we had Harry Kane scoring at the same rate as Sergio Aguero and yet it still took many players a long time to transfer him in, and even longer to consider him as a captain option. This season is just another that needs some getting used to as the cheap to mid-priced options continue to fetch hauls.
That being said, the heavy-hitters are called as such and priced that way for a reason โ consistent returns, usually over a good number of seasons. Youโd be brave to bet against Aguero still having not scored a brace by the end of Cityโs great run of fixtures or for Alexis Sanchez to go on blanking.
The main question is whether they provide value for these returns, which are looking few and far between at the moment. If you arenโt looking to captain anyone outside of Aguero can you afford to bring someone like Andre Ayew in for Sanchez and keep the money in the bank for a rainy day instead?
Remaining flexible is key and while I will always back the heavy-hitters to come good, itโs all a matter of timing and being able to jump on when needed with as few transfers as possible.
Ryan says…
Absolutely. The value in some of these attacks is extraordinary.
The difference in price between Hazard and Pedro is 1.9, the difference in price between Sanchez and Ramsey is 2.6. Add those together and its a whopping 4.5, whilst still providing a key component in the Chelsea and Arsenal attacks.
I struggle to understand the logic in continuing to back expensive assets that will share points with attacking team-mates that are so much cheaper. Hazard and Sanchez have both proven that they are at their best when they are the main attacking outlet in the side. Right now, neither are providing that same assurance, as they share the attacking responsibility with others.
This scenario creates an interesting situation. If these heavy-hitters continue to flounder, the FPL economy will be awash with spare cash. You will see more expensive benches, less bench fodder and an increased rotation of good mid-priced options. We could leave plenty of cash in the bank, but this is an opportunity to look beyond the standard price structure. Itโs an opportunity to consider new ways to invest the cash saved and consider upgrading our cheaper assets.
Spencer says…
Pre-season we were all asking ourselves how we could fit all the heavy-hitters in. Acquriing the likes of Branislav Ivanovic, Hazard, Sanchez, David Silva, Costa, Aguero and Rooney in a team was an impossible task. We couldn’t fit them all in, so the question became, which heavy-hitters to pick?
Four weeks in and all of the above have failed to perform to their expected level. It’s also worth noting that their cheaper replacements – Cesar Azpilicueta, Cesc Fabregas, Mesut Ozil, Raheem Sterling and Memphis Depay – have also struggled for form. Instead, budget options like Aleksandar Kolarov, Mahrez, Ayew, Wilson and Bafetimbi Gomis have shone and accumulated the points.
Nonetheless, it’s still early in the season. Do we really expect Chelsea and Arsenal’s title tilt to go on faltering, when only a few weeks ago, many of us were stating that they could win it?
Conversely, Leicester City were relegation candidates. Can Mahrez, Marc Albrighton, and Jamie Vardy really maintain their current output levels?
The question has remained the same, but rather than fitting in heavy-hitters based on available budget and reputation, it should be based purely on performances and fixtures.
Mark says…
I’m struggling to remember a season that’s begun quite like this. Normally we’d expect to see at least two or three of the established heavy-hitters present some early form to justify their price tags but, to this point, it’s barely materialised.
Undoubtedly it’s the struggles of Arsenal, United, Spurs and, in particular Chelsea, that have led to the current malaise. There were plenty showing caution over the champions’ schedule, myself included, but, while I decided to go without Eden Hazard, I fully expected to have been punished by now.
Similarly, it seemed unlikely that Rooney and Kane would be without a goal at this point and that Ivanovic, a nigh-on essential defensive asset last season, would have fallen in price by 0.2 by this stage.
While the big names have stalled, the mid-price seems to be flush with options. The likes of Ayew, Gomis, Payet and Mahrez are not just in form, they to have the potential to last the distance and easily outperform their valuations.
With this in mind, I don’t see that we have a choice but to begin to transform our squads to include at least some of these names. In midfield, in particular, I’m struggling to see the need for more than two heavy-hitters, given the value currently on offer. Even then, I’m beginning to question whether the likes of Sanchez and Silva warrant the outlay, certainly the latter’s returns require monitoring following the arrival of Kevin De Bruyne.
Sergio Aguero demands patience and Sanchez is perhaps too explosive to abandon just yet. Beyond this, I’d say all bets are off.
It looks advisable to ride the mid-price bandwagons and return to the heavy-hitter glitterati once form is established. By then, we may even be able to pick up some cut-price quality.
Applebonkers says…
The answer right now is a clear “no”. This is a problem with the opening month, though, we build up years of knowledge and then let a few weeks of sometimes unusual information risk trumping it all.
Aguero won’t finish the season with just one goal for every four appearances. Hazard won’t finish the season with zero goals and 9 assists. Wilson, Mahrez and Gomis won’t score 38 goals this season.
These players are “heavy-hitters” for a reason. The game evolves, it doesn’t completely turn on its head.
Relax, take a deep breath and stop chasing your tail.
The only heavy-hitter that worries me long-term is Sanchez. I’m not sure it’s as simple as saying he’s being found-out but his downturn is a matter of months now, not just weeks. From experience last season he’s nearly impossible to sell, so monitoring from a distance suits. The irony is his encouraging stats just highlight his struggles – he’s taking too many touches as defenders are reading him better whilst one shot often becomes two as it gets blocked.
In a game with captains, there’s always a place for these ‘template’ heavy-hitters. Those captains have been fairly hopeless so far but I don’t see the cure being simply to captain cheaper players instead.
They’re cheaper because their CVs are blanker. Just hang in there.
