[sbu_large_image] Spot the Differential
17 October 2015 1890 comments
James Barnes James Barnes
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Our usual Saturday morning trawl for some overlooked Fantasy options sees us place our faith in a couple of hot-headed frontmen with favourable home encounters on their agendas. Southampton’s playmaker also earns a nod as Ronald Koeman’s men embark on a very kind run of fixtures.

Diego Costa

In the same way that Sergio Aguero and Alexis Sanchez silenced their critics in emphatic fashion with explosive Fantasy returns, one would imagine that Diego Costa’s undoubted class will eventually shine through and spark a much-needed hot streak. To that end, Chelsea’s home tie against Aston Villa this Gameweek could provide the perfect antidote for the Blues’ ailing offense, considering that Tim Sherwood’s men shipped eight goals in their last trio of road clashes.

Costa’s most prominent failing this term has been a lack of goal attempts; Radamel Falcao has mustered as many shots on target (four) as the combative frontman, despite being afforded less than half his pitch time (231 minutes compared to 540). It bodes well, then, that only Leicester and Norwich City surrendered more shots inside the box (22) than Villa during the last two Gameweeks.

With a large portion of Sergio Aguero’s ownership pinpointing Graziano Pelle – who’s the most transferred in player this Gameweek – as the most viable replacement, the 10.9-priced Costa (6% ownership) could be an impactful purchase. If he can rediscover his groove against the West Midlanders, Chelsea’s excellent run through to the New Year – which includes a quartet of strong home encounters (NOR, BOU, SUN, WAT) – plays right into Costa’s hands.

Dusan Tadic

Beyond Graziano Pelle (three goals and four assists in three) and Sadio Mane (two goals and three assists in three), Dusan Tadic (three goals in five) makes the most cogent argument for investment among Southampton’s attacking contingent. Priced at 7.0, the Serbian playmaker serves as a cheaper route into a Saints outfit that netted eight goals in their past four match-ups and is buoyant in the wake of a 3-1 victory over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

From a statistical standpoint, Tadic has excelled over the past four Gameweeks. Aside from tallying six attempts, he ranked joint-fourth among his counterparts for key passes (14). Moreover, taking the campaign as whole, Mesut Ozil (one every 19.5 minutes) and Erik Lamela (20.2 minutes) are the only midfield starters to boast superior key-pass frequencies (23.1 minutes) than Tadic, underlining how pivotal he is to Southampton’s build-up play.

The Saints’ next match-up finds them hosting a Leicester City side that ranked second for goals against (10) and shots inside the box conceded (44) across the previous four Gameweeks, exposing their paucity of defensive resolve. With three more favourable home encounters (BOU, STO, AVL) and a trip to Sunderland also to follow in the next seven Gameweeks, the 6%-owned Tadic could be a real contender in the mid-price bracket.

Aleksandar Mitrovic

Notwithstanding their 6-1 mauling at the hands of Manchester City last Gameweek, Newcastle United will take solace from Aleksandar Mitrovic’s first goal of the campaign. Fantasy managers will understandably be wary of recruiting from the Tyneside outfit – given that no side has chalked up fewer goals (six) this campaign – but it’s worth bearing in mind they’ve already squared off against six of last season’s top six teams and now embark on an agreeable schedule (NOR, sun, STO, bou, LEI, cry) through to Gameweek 15.

Despite facing off against Chelsea and Man City in the last two Gameweeks, the former Anderlecht marksman managed to rack up six shots inside the box – only five forwards carded more. Next on the agenda for the Magpies is Norwich – who’ve conceded the most shots inside the box (48) and second most big chances (11) over the last two Gameweeks – which suggests Mitrovic will have an easier time fashioning chances.

Valued at 6.2, Mitrovic is certainly friendly on the budget, though the real problem up until this point has been his temperament. If he can curtail the aggression that’s resulted in two yellow cards and a sending off in just over 300 minutes with the Magpies, his predatory eye for goal looks key to steering Steve McClaren’s outfit up the table.

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  1. Deyanski
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Pretty strong differentials!
    I would like to add Bony

    1. A-VB
      11 years, 7 days ago

      True

  2. HNI
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Posted in older post...

    Who to Play

    1) Mahrez (Soton Away)
    2) Lukaku (Manutd Home)

    Who to Captain
    a) Pelle (Lei Home)
    b) De bruyne (Bou Home)

    1. Retrosynth
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Replied on old post.

    2. Amjcity
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Lukaku for me (always scores agnst utd)

      1. HNI
        11 years, 7 days ago

        And captain between Pelle/Lukaku?

    3. Sz21
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Pelle Capt, Mahrez

    4. The Left Duke #3
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Lukaku at home for sure. KDB Captain 🙂

  3. C_G
    11 years, 7 days ago

    All set, what do you guys think? taken a (-4) hit in total

    Butland

    Williams, Souare, Darmian

    Sanchez, KDB (c), Mahrez, Ayew, Payet

    Pelle (vc), Vardy

    Bench : Bojan, Richards, Kolarov

    1. Retrosynth
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Looks good to me! Nice team.

      1. HNI
        11 years, 7 days ago

        +1

  4. Captain Vantastic™
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Dawson or McCauley?!!!

    1. OPTA FPL
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Cauley

    2. Puyol Pants Up
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Dawson

      The latter is old.

      1. Gianfranco Zola
        11 years, 7 days ago

        35! I thought he was closer to 25

    3. HNI
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Dawson....stay mainstream

  5. Puyol Pants Up
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Well, I failed my post on the last article, lets try again 🙂

    Who would you pick as a Gomez replacement?

    A) Bellerin (wat, EVE, swa, TOT, wba)
    B) Janmaat (NOR, sun, STK, bou, LEI
    C) Bertrand (LEI, liv, AVL, BOU, sun)

    Cheers 😀

    1. OPTA FPL
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Hmmm
      I think the only one can decide it for you now is Jinwisk

      1. Puyol Pants Up
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Ok.

    2. EmreCan Hustle
      11 years, 7 days ago

      A. Best of both worlds.

    3. HNI
      11 years, 7 days ago

      A

    4. Puyol Pants Up
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Cheers guys.

    5. The Left Duke #3
      11 years, 7 days ago

      ABC in that order I think. Wanted Bellerin or Janmaat myself this week but have injuries to Silva/Kun so must skip this week.

    6. Wardinator
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Go Janmaat and have some fun!

    7. sminkypinky
      11 years, 7 days ago

      All good picks imo. I picked all three. One of the first two if pushed.

  6. Retrosynth
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Hey DZ, on a deadline with school and needing some help:

    Sagna nailed with Kolorov out?

    Am I crazy to go with Walcott and Sturbridge over Pelle and Sanchez?

    1. Puyol Pants Up
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Not sure, I would assume so.

      No, your not crazy but I would definitely prefer the latter

    2. Jay10
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Not Nailed,Mangala is left-footed.

    3. HNI
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Replied on Older Post and also Asked what does DZ mean

      1. Fitzy.
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Dead Zone - when we're here 🙂

  7. President John F. Keninnsie
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Who are your differentials this week? (Less than 5% ownership)

    1. Zasa
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Bonyius Maximus

      1. President John F. Keninnsie
        11 years, 7 days ago

        (C)?

        1. Zasa
          11 years, 7 days ago

          KdB mate 🙂

          1. President John F. Keninnsie
            11 years, 7 days ago

            Ooh a lot of faith in City I see!

            1. Zasa
              11 years, 7 days ago

              The stats, fixtures, & xG don't lie about the league's best attack 😉

    2. EmreCan Hustle
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Janmaat(not sure about ownership).
      Gabriel.

      1. President John F. Keninnsie
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Nice picks!

        1. EmreCan Hustle
          11 years, 7 days ago

          Cheers. Hope they deliver. Good luck Innsie.

          1. President John F. Keninnsie
            11 years, 7 days ago

            And to you!

    3. Diva
      11 years, 7 days ago

      I have two. Can't spill the beans in case Giggs Boson is about. You'll like one, Ryan will like the other. 🙂

      1. President John F. Keninnsie
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Interesting...

      2. Arvin-ation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Oh come on 😉 Just a few clues!

        1. Diva
          11 years, 7 days ago

          I gave you two clues! 😀

    4. SpaceCadet
      11 years, 7 days ago

      bony, hazard (c)

    5. fedolefan
      11 years, 7 days ago

      O'Shea, Souare, Janmaat and (Walcott, 5.8%).

    6. Arvin-ation
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Begovic, Dawson and if they count, Walcott + Sakho who are near 5% 😉

    7. DameCorp
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Berahino (if he plays)

    8. A-VB
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Bony

    9. La Roja
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Zaba & Souare

    10. FPLzebub
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Eriksen, Gabriel, Bony, Janmaat, Elliot.

    11. twoplustwo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Walcott and Costa are close enough. Excited for both.

  8. Gianfranco Zola
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Looked at Costa as soon as Aguero was injured but as the week has gone on, it seems he's gotten more and more popular.

  9. The Red Devil
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Bottomed at the previous post!

    Start
    Nyom
    Ighalo
    Mahrez
    Both ighalo & Mahrez & play AOA

  10. Diva
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Not often we get a new article in the middle of the DeadZone. Is it nearly Halloween because something spooky is going on?

    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      11 years, 7 days ago

      6am on deadline day is actually quite common. Its automated I think

      1. Diva
        11 years, 7 days ago

        I stand corrected. I'm just used to the dead midweeks on international breaks when there's just a handful of us keeping the fantasy flame alive through the night. 😀

        1. Ryan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          11 years, 7 days ago

          Yeah the DZ is dramatically shortened on these days. I guess we should be glad the break is finally over. Many are doing mini WC's by the look of it

          1. Diva
            11 years, 7 days ago

            I'm on a demi-WC: I took a -8. I should hate myself for it, but I don't.

            1. Ryan
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              11 years, 7 days ago

              Its a necessity for many this week

              1. Diva
                11 years, 7 days ago

                Yeah, I could have survived with -4, but I felt the third player I removed was almost as bad as a non-starter.

                1. Ryan
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  11 years, 7 days ago

                  Small hits every now and then help keep your team current without getting too far behind. Its a good week to spend 8pts

            1. Ryan
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              11 years, 7 days ago

              Some just lack self control 😉

            2. FPLzebub
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              11 years, 7 days ago

              Guy in my mini-league has done a -44. He finished about 4k overall last season and took loads of hits then too.

    2. Billy Gilmore
      11 years, 7 days ago

      The Spot the Differential article is always posted around 6am

      1. Diva
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Just goes to show I should be elsewhere or paying more attention to the time! 🙂

  11. EmreCan Hustle
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Captain?

    A. Pelle
    B. KDB
    C. Sanchez
    D. Hazard

    Thanks.

    1. wolves_simmo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Exactly the same dilemma! No idea who to pick at all

      1. EmreCan Hustle
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Currently on Pelle.

    2. La Roja
      11 years, 7 days ago

      D

      1. EmreCan Hustle
        11 years, 7 days ago

        That's the most tempting.

    3. The Sarjeant
      11 years, 7 days ago

      A.

      1. EmreCan Hustle
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Cheers Sarje.

  12. Puyol Pants Up
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Dawson (barely a differential around these parts) and Nyom.

    Still have 1 transfer to make though 🙂

    1. Puyol Pants Up
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Reply fail to Innsie

  13. SpaceCadet
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Play ighalo or mahrez?

    1. Puyol Pants Up
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Toss a coin 😉

      Mahrez imo

  14. FantasyFS007
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Burning question for me - Sterling to KDB for a hit?

    1. Gianfranco Zola
      11 years, 7 days ago

      No

    2. La Roja
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Tough one, but yea

  15. Vlekz
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Whom should I bench? Mahrez or courtinho or martial?? I have to bench one of them. Plz help.. Thanks.. Cheers

    1. Jay10
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Benching Coutinho would be sensible as there are less goals in early kickoff. But I would bench Mahrez.

    2. Annie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Rest of front 8?

      1. Vlekz
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Payet Sanchez kdb vardy pelle

  16. The Left Duke #3
    11 years, 7 days ago

    1FT, 0.6m ITB, no WC

    Bego McCarthy*
    Kolarov* Naughton* Evans* Gomez* Targett*
    Silva* Sanchez Mahrez Coutinho* Westwood
    Kun* Gomis Sakho

    A) Kun / Silva -->> Pelle / KDB (-4)
    B) Kun / Silva / WWood -->> Pelle / KDB / Wally (-8) & AOA
    C) Kun / Silva / WWood -->> Pelle / Haz / Yaya (-8) & AOA
    D) Kun / Silva / Gomez -->> Pelle / KDB / Bellerin (-8)
    E) Other moves

    comments/thoughts appreciated 🙂

  17. Gianfranco Zola
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Why is Origi! gaining transfers at such a rate?

    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Some think all of Liverpools strikers are injured

      1. Gianfranco Zola
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Still doesn't turn him into a good player.

        1. Ryan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          11 years, 7 days ago

          People just think he'll be a starting striker at Liverpool. Thats all the info they need to bring him in. Just go's to show how some people think

    2. Diva
      11 years, 7 days ago

      The Sturridge rumour?

    3. Ziro Becomes One
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Berbinho said Sturridge will be benched today.

      1. Ziro Becomes One
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Berbinho's Forehead I mean.

      2. Zasa
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Is he a primary source?

        1. Ziro Becomes One
          11 years, 7 days ago

          No. But he is ok, never too far.

          1. Zasa
            11 years, 7 days ago

            Yeah for sure 🙂

    4. Gianfranco Zola
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Ok. So it's based on the understanding that he could start one! match.

      1. Billy Gilmore
        11 years, 7 days ago

        And not even a favourable match

    5. The Left Duke #3
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Apparently Sturridge has a swollen knee. Ings out for the season and Benteke still out

  18. EmreCan Hustle
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Interesting. I've been following the Costa vs Hazard debate all week. It's been pretty even so far, but lots of people have dismissed both saying that there are many better options out there.

    It seems however, that Hazard managed to squeeze himself into the scout picks, but Costa is behind Bony?

    What;s the thinking here?
    I'm not criticizing. I just don't know who to get out of the 2!

    Thanks.

    1. The Left Duke #3
      11 years, 7 days ago

      I really want one of the two and am leaning towards Hazard due to Costa being a scumbag and red card waiting to happen

  19. La Roja
    11 years, 7 days ago

    All set?

    Team after a mini surgery, -8. Bench is still a shocker.

    Myhill
    Zaba Souare Bellerin
    Hazard(c) KDB Sanchez Mata
    Pelle Vardy Martial

    McCarthy* Surman Targett* Gomez*

    1. EmreCan Hustle
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Looks good. You think Zaba will be first choice again after the left backs return?

      1. La Roja
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Zaba is right back and always ahead of Sagna. But of course all City full backs are rotation threat

  20. adp1113
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Do you expect Mane to start or be benched this gameweek?

    1. OPTA FPL
      11 years, 7 days ago

      he only played 90 mins football in last 14 days

    2. Root
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Start

  21. The Sarjeant
    11 years, 7 days ago

    I have two Southampton attackers and two Leicester attackers. I'm playing Cedric but I've currently got Francis playing (up against City's make-shift left back). Should I play Huth and have most outcomes covered in the Southampton v Leicester game?

    1. Ziro Becomes One
      11 years, 7 days ago

      I am doing almost the same principle. Want to get Bertrand but going Coleman even against United because I have two Leicester attackers.

    1. Ziro Becomes One
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Today is at St.Mary's.

  22. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Thoughts on elliot and henessey? other option is begovic/henessey
    Elliot / Henessey
    - cpl/new rotate really well!!
    - Agree that they are not nailed on but my thinking is atleast one of them will be nailed on and i can spend an FT replacing the one thats dropped
    - so the upside of getitng a combo for 7.9 is worth an FT (if needed) i think
    - worse case scenario: both get dropped so will need 2fts

    Begovic/Henessey
    - chelseas fixtures are great, very cheap access to chelsea backline
    - combo at 8.9 is still decent price
    - main concern: will def need an ft to replace begovic in december and might need another one ft for henessey

    1. adp1113
      11 years, 7 days ago

      I am currently on a WC and my keepers are Begovic/Hennessey. Get at me on Twitter @ADP1113 if you want to exchange ideas.

      1. UnitednationsXI
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        11 years, 7 days ago

        cool thanks

    2. FPLzebub
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      11 years, 7 days ago

      I've got Elliot/Hennessey. Nice fixtures and rotation and dirt cheap.

      1. UnitednationsXI
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        11 years, 7 days ago

        thanks

  23. Don Look Back in Wenger
    11 years, 7 days ago

    So Janmaat is nailed on for Norwich at home right?

    hows kolarov- janmaat for -4 sounds?

    1. OPTA FPL
      11 years, 7 days ago

      good move

    2. Fumi
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Could not be more nailed. Like it.

  24. Sadio
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Be honest:

    Am I being too optimistic by capping Hazard?

    1. President John F. Keninnsie
      11 years, 7 days ago

      No, good pick I reckon.

    2. Root
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Decent option if you don't own KDB, Pellè, Sánchez, Walcott, Mané, Yaya or Bony.

    3. La Roja
      11 years, 7 days ago

      I took -8, got rid of Mahrez Kun Kolarov and made Hazard captain.

      Gut feeling, 10+ points

    4. EmreCan Hustle
      11 years, 7 days ago

      190, 200, 230....he is still the same player.

    5. Ziro Becomes One
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Hazard is a good pick. But I don't get the Costa cappers.

  25. Rasping Drive
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Would you take a hit to replace Kolarov? I have Bassong (new) or Richards (che) or Ighalo (ARS) to play instead of him (the latter only if I play the AOA chip).

    Haven't take a hit yet this week. Cheers for any suggestions.

    1. OPTA FPL
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Kolarov --> Zabaleta

    2. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Its worth starting Ighalo under those circumstances. Bassong will be an able sub

      1. Rasping Drive
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Cheers peeps

  26. trequartista
    11 years, 7 days ago

    RMWC ?

    Begovic Hennessey
    Dawson Bellerin Sagna Davies Souare
    Alexis KdB Mahrez Payet Ayew
    Lukaku Vardy Pelle

    Some points -
    1. will be shipping out Dawson/Sagna in the future, didn't want to with such tasty fixtures up next
    2. Could put Walcott/Mane in there for either Payet/Ayew

  27. Beautiful Game
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Captain?

    1) Hazard
    2) Sanchez
    3) Pelle

    1. OPTA FPL
      11 years, 7 days ago

      1

    2. La Roja
      11 years, 7 days ago

      All are good options.

      I'm going with Hazard (C)

    3. OPTA FPL
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Why do people have Hazard but dont captain him this week?
      If you dont trust him, why got him?

      1. La Roja
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Chelsea has played rubbish so far hence people are hesitant to stick armband on him.

        I reckon Chelsea will start to win games consistently as of today.

  28. No Name to Display
    11 years, 7 days ago

    So, Hazard's price fell eh? Hope he goes berserk today..

  29. Valar(Keith)
    11 years, 7 days ago

    Finalized WC team(almost)

    Gomes (Hennessey)
    Bertrand Janmaat Dawson Moreno Simpson
    Sanchez KDB Yaya Mane Walcott
    Lukaku Pelle Vardy

    ... Worth swapping
    Simpson + Wally + Lukaku for Oshea + Hazard + Ighalo ?
    Or leave as is?

    1. Fitzy.
      11 years, 7 days ago

      Looks huge! I guess the Aguero plan is downgrading a mid?

      1. Valar(Keith)
        11 years, 7 days ago

        Yup.. if i get Hazard in it'll be him that gets downgraded.. if not i'd prob do KDB/Yaya out and upgrade Pelle/Vardy in 5 weeks

    2. Fitzy.
      11 years, 7 days ago

      And I'd leave as is.

    3. Ziro Becomes One
      11 years, 7 days ago

      It's a no for me.