We delve into the Gameweek 20 data this evening in our first members article of the week. Wayne Rooney’s upturn in attacking potential arrives under analysis, whilst we also cast an eye over midfielders from Spurs, West Ham, Arsenal and Newcastle, before assessing Liverpool and Leicester’s threat in the final third.
Aldy 6.1?
I'm getting a Spurs defender this week and no way it's going to be Aldy.
Walker
Yeah it's either him, Vert or Walker.
What about Dier?
Terrible in the BP's department.
Runner
It has got a bit ridiculous, like how Clyne raced ahead of Bertie in TV last year, both started at 5.0 and got to 5.7 and 5.1 after 10 weeks. Bert eventually caught up. Almost.
Good thing I got him in at 5.2. Season keeper for me now
@zasa, no way am I straight swapping my Ozil for your Ramsey.
Haha, always worth a try
Which is why I added two alternative add-ons for good measure, gosh darn it!
??? There's nothing there, just your ramblings about my albrighton in the chat.
I said Puncheon & Firmino :/
ohh right thats not on my screen. propose the trade and I'll consider it.
Nvm, I said it in the counter trade chat & it didn't fit in the normal chat 🙁 Well long story, short. It's those two lads.
okay I'll ponder it.
How about Vertonghen instead of Lamela?
Might be too early to ask this, but what the heck...captain KDB or Kun this week? Who are you guys going with?
Kun
Fitting name 😉
But of course 🙂
Ah I get it now. I always wondered what you had against he-man.
😆
Heard this one too many times hahaha
Ighalo
Ighalo or Siggy
Probably Alli.
Not a bad shout!
Kane or Payet. Currently Kane.
Tottenham and Sunderland both play Wednesday and then first game on the Saturday. Kane (c) for the Sunderland game. Surely Spurs are the fitter team.
I might go with Alli then too 🙂
Andy Carroll back at Newcastle would be a very interesting prospect ... if he can stay fit I can see him slamming 10 goals in the back half of the year!!
if he can stay fit
LOLOLOL
Good morning guys
Morning Jape.
How are we?
Morning Jape and all.
🙂
Morning Jape
Any interesting news that happened on here overnight? I read that Myhill might not be in net much longer.
Sorry no idea. Just logged in 5 minutes ago 😆
Haha not to worry
@Zasa, no can do, it rips up my top end points potential
Sad face, understandable mate.
If Ozil is moving one way, Kane has to come the other I think.
How does this look for next GW?
Butland
Koscielny Dann Rose
Alli Yaya Payet Mahrez Özil
Lukaku Kane(c)
Bench: DDG Bertrand Vardy SmithI'd play Vardy over Alli
Looks good to me. Perhaps I'd play DDG over Butland.
Thanks for the feedback!
Vardy/Smailling/Monreal --> Kane/Cresswell/Simpson for a 4-pt hit? Yay or nay?
Current team:
Myhill, Hennessy
Smalling, Monreal, Koscielny, Alderwierald, Wollscheld
KDB, Ozil, Yaya, Mahrez, Alli
Kun, Lukaku, VardyIf you have Smalling don't get rid of him.
Vardy > Kane
Monreal > Cresswellthis. Or you can address Myhill by getting the likes of Adrian, Gomes etc.
This
hey there James1
Hi Nabil. Any big fat green arrows recently?
😀 I had 3 pretty fat green arrows that moved me from 588k to 198k.
Bu last GW that run came to an end as I fell back to 207k. Wish I gone PVA instead of Wolly - missed on picking him by a whisker.So you're getting closer to top 100k, congrats mate 🙂
I moved from 1.1m to 823k during festive period, but benching Cresswell and Simpson made me fall back to 914k last GW 🙁
This too.
Thx
np
I prefer this too, I think you can avoid the hit.
That can work... thx!
Evening all, hope everyone has had a great holiday! I've got a few questions to start off with, who has actually been selling Mahrez and why has Barkley dropped so quickly? Surely most teams would have far more pressing concerns
20,000 idiots by the look of it! Had no idea people were selling Mahrez. Barkley I can understand a bit more, such is the competition for mid spots.
True although with a few injuries in the mids I'm still puzzled about how Barkley is at -68% on false
Barkley has dropped because he's not a great pick.
Most teams are "template" so i'm sure the only problem they have is how to get Aguero in
Barkley has dropped off real fast on my ranking list. There are good reasons for it
1)Fixtures stiffen
2)Most have Lukaku and two is too many Everton
3) Only takes a few blanks for the fire sale to start
4) The rise of Arni and return of PayetCheers TL, I think 3) might be a key reason
It's a pretty loose template this season imo and there has definitely been a switch in defensive fixtures plus various injuries.
I'd also disagree with you about Barkley not being a great pick, but we'll have to wait and see won't we.
"Loose template" - interesting terminology , what do you mean by that?
The template consists of less players than in previous seasons, loose = more room to differ, a tighter template would be where there are only two maybe three positions where teams can distinguish themselves
We've had template areas before (e.g. Power 5 Midfield), but I can't recall a tighter template in the last few seasons than what we've had this year. It looks like it is beginning to break up but we've had a template first 11 through much of November and December.
It is a pretty loose template you're right, but the players that everyone has in have no issues. Not many injuries and defensive CS's too hard to predict.
We'll see about Barkley you're right. Don't trust him though
Time to shift Moreno?
Thinking Moreno to Cresswell, current back line is:
Butland, Gomes
Rose, Moreno, Jones, Smith, Simpson
Yay or nay? Any other defensive suggestions?Why people are ditching Moreno after 1 bad LIV ghame? Did he perform really bad? Has he stop running up and down? I didn't watch the games so pretty clueless here.
I'd understand the temptation to upgrade defense but not sure if Moreno -> Cresswell or Azpi is really an upgrade.Pool suffered a few defensive injuries against Stoke earlier, although I think Toure might make the game.
1 bad game? Are you kidding?
Get rid of Rose or upgrade Simpson?
Moreno is cheap enough to keep and benchI'd let Jones and Rose out before Moreno.
This
Jones --> Cresswell?
Thanks, sorry, ducked out for a sec.
No funds for this one... .6 ITB.
Fixtures is the other reason I'm looking at Moreno over Rose at the moment
Aww...McCarthy dropped again. Lost 0.2M SV on a dead player.
But look at all those Butland benchings you saved yourself from
I guess haha
When I wildcard I think I'll go with two keepers though. De Gea seems OK for now.
To Start:
A) Moreno (ARS)
B) Francis (WHM)
Other defenders are: Bellerin, Kol, Dawson (Benched)Well Francis is banned, so I'd go with Moreno
Francis will be playing next GW
🙂
Francis, but I'd start Dawson over him personally.
Interesting. Worried about Chelsea's return to form though... plus it's an away game for Dawson. Thanks for your suggestion nonetheless!
I'm doubling with Evans 🙂 No problem - I could be horribly wrong but I'm not convinced they are back yet - and Brom are better on the road.
Bold doubling up. I like it. Goodluck!
Start Francis out of those two. Arsenal are going to batter us.
Cheers. Still waiting for Moreno's imminent attacking return
It'll happen when we actually have a solid defence. Honestly wish Klopp would start Ibe more.
B
Cheers
B imo
Thanks!
Any ideas on my team?
Hennessey
Bellerin Dawson Cresswell
Mahrez Payet KDB Ozil
Kane Lukaku Vardy
DDG, Simpson Moreno Surman
1FT, 3.7mITB
A) Vardy ➡ Ighalo
B) Moreno out
C) Other
D) SaveA
Thanks bro.
A) imo
Cheers captain. Ighalo's price rise annoyed me though 🙁
A
Cheers 🙂
A or D
That's what I'm thinking too, surprised to see nobody else suggusting D.
I'm tempted to get Ighalo but not sure if I should sell Vardy. Selling Mahrez on my WC burned me.I sold Vardy few weeks ago to do Giroud (c). TWICE 😆
You must have been a bit late to join the ditch party. Feel free to do so if you think you're upgrading your attack with Iggy (who is very solid), but If Vardy's up and running now it won;t be an easy decision.Wow 😯 Why did I get Ramsey instead 😆
I hope Vardy is out for next GW. That will make my decision much easier. Cheers Nabil 🙂O got Rambo too lol
np mateTriple ARS attacker 😯 Well at least you didn't give him the armband, like me 😆
BTW, are you taking part in Balders' Wimbledon Doubles Tournament?Sorry for the late reply. Yeah I was invited by my Team Montenegro captain to partner another teammate to complete the Montenegro triple treat. Can't say no to my captain.
Good luck with your quest mate. We'll team up in the future.No worries mate. Good luck to you too 🙂
at least Girouds got some semblance of returns!
that's my point actually. And it;s pretty fun
So does anyone with a good finger on the pulse know of the likely signings at this stage of the window. I know we usually reserve all banter for the final 48 hours as not much happens prior. I'm excited about Carrol's potential move!
Hoping Klopp raids Dortmund for a CB or two
Don't really budget issue, but should I let go off my double Arsenal defense?
Williams and Creswell are looking good.
I think double defence from one of the premium defences is a good strategy from now on. Double united, Che or Arsenal. West Ham have been good as of late though
I'd give Chelsea a few more weeks before loading up
Of course but if I had I would not sell
Agreed 🙂
I would, how long's Coquelin out for though? You could hold onto one of them at least if he's due back.
If no other pressing issues - you could shift one of your Arsenal DEFs. Means you can potentially work in Sanchez in the future (being your 3rd Arsenal selection)
I would. You lose 9 points if Arsenal concede a goal, assuming you have Ozil.
So I'm playing Dawson and Janmaat against Chelsea and United this coming gw. Not worth a hit for any defender. But with Vardy out I'm trying to decide if I should Play Lloris or Hennessy?
Hennessey, Mahrez can score against anyone.
Yeah currently playing Hennessy as im playing Alder also. Thanks
I wouldn't double up defence vs Leicester.
Ta
Which one have chances to score in next 3 weeks?
1. Alli + Aguero
2. Payet + Costa
3. Willian + Aguero
4. Payet + Aguero
5. Alli + Costa
Currently i choose no 4..thanks1, but I also like 3 and 4
I prefer4 but 1 is nice also. Not so sure on Costa yet
ok..thanks guys
All have a very good chance to score.. but out of those i would pick 1 to score the highest IMO
i like to see the improvement in costa gameplay after gameweek 20..this leave me headeache to pick which one this week..
Does anyone know when Reid(WHU) is back? I think Collins can be great differential this week. Good stats and Bou are poor defending set pieces.
Reid is slated to return for the next GW. Wait and see if he gets a run-out in the Hammers' FA Cup tie against Wolves. If Reid plays, I would park the Collins idea...
Ta. 🙂
Omg
I could watch that over and over
Same
West Brom's form worries me.
Dawson>Cresswell is very, very temptingDawson has some great attacking stats recently though.
I was disappointed they didn't keep a clean against Stoke, but generally they're pretty predictable. Chelsea may have turned a corner but they've had a fairly easy ride lately so it's hard to say; and then they face Saints who are stuttering badly. I can see at least one clean in the next two games, and you never know when one of their defenders is going to pop up with a goal as well.
Then they have a lovely trio of fixtures GWs 23-25.
I'd hold onto Dawson because of this
Rank regardless of price for next 6 weeks
1)Aguero
2)Ighalo
3)Costa.
Thanks!that order
correct order
3
1
2Purely from a differential perspective, that is
Yeah that order, assuming Aguero is back to his best (and hasn't been brought back too early).
If anyone wants to calculate shots on target conceded (something not available in the members area) its essentially saves + goals conceded.
There a few minor technical difficulties with that definition but I think it works for all intents and purposes when you are considering large data sets.
goal-line blocks are the only component of OPTA SoTs that are missing
By few I may have meant one. 🙂 There were several issues I came across when I looked at ways of calculating GK save percentages and that's where I got 'few' from but of course your point was tightly defined. Speaking of which, I'll probably update my GK save percentage chart in the next few days.
But why? As a defensive analysis you are adding opposing striker accuracy in the equation.
There's the running theory that to an extent defensive pressure can affect a shooter's accuracy.
True!
I haven't gone looking for the details, but wasn't there some research that suggested faster teams did better than slower teams. Is that what you're referring to?
"running theory"
ROFLCOPTERI wasn't sure whether Balders was talking about a theory about running or a theory that has been neither proved nor disproved yet.
😆 second option!
Though from your reply below, the first option sounds like it is part of the second option. 😆
Not explicitly though thats part of an ongoing discussion. Basically some years there's okay correlation, some years there's none at all. Really it seems to be a bit based on what the big 6s style of play looks year to year. Another theory strand is if your defenders hustle the strikers more aggressively and give them less space on the ball, they'll shoot wayward like Coutinho does more often. Though defining hustle is basically impossible and un-testable at the moment.
Is hustle in this context essentially the same as closing down quickly?
yes/not giving much space to begin with.
Butland (Hennessey)
Williams Walker Ward (Nyom, Simpson)
Payet, Ozil, KDB, Alli (Mahrez)
Kane Ighalo Kun
1m 1FT, Save?
Who to play?
Pick One from each:
A. Alli
B. Mahrez
C. Payet
1. Walker
2. SimpsonSave
A
1Pick two from the midfielders I mean, realised that choice is a bit confusing.
So bench Mahrez or Payet?Mahrez
Ta.
🙂
Bench Alli and Simpson, imo.
Alli's on better form no?
If I captain Ozil twice like many did instead of Giroud twice
GW19
Ozil - 14 x 2 : 28 pts + Giroud 5 pts = total 33 points
GW20
Ozil - 3 x 2 : 6 pts + Giroud 5 pts = total 11 points
Grand total of 44 points.
I actually got 36 points. Just 8 points difference. Not that bad after all.
Shows that One correct captaincy doesn't change much even in short term. I believe many who captained him in GW19 did it again in GW20.sorry, only 9 points in GW20 (Ozil 2x2). So 42 points, even better for me (just 6 points difference)
14 + 2 - 5 - 5 = 6 🙂
Maths is just not my thing lol
I captained Ramsey in GW19, and Ozil in GW20 😆
Talk about about being unlucky. Twice 😆
about twice seems right.
Me too lol
lol @ us 😆
Start Bellerin (liv) or Francis (WHU)?
LIV can't score.
Scored vs Stoke 🙂
Some real butt hurt there.
They seem to be able to against the big teams!
Hallmark of a counter attacking team.
Is gegenpressing counter attacking?
It's a turnover strategy with a high line. Attackers may not get as much space as a classic counterattack from a defensive turnover.
Pressing high up the pitch, this from Messi-Seconds is a good primer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJGowhvquqMSorry, I didn't make myself clear. I know what gegenpressing is, but I was wondering if it can be counted as counter attacking because the idea is to win the ball back before an attack can really get going. That being so, there should be no "attack" to "counter".
It isn't but with LIV players so bad at it, they win the ball back much later and counter attack. Their squad isn't good enough for it.
😆 they might get there eventually but not until late April at the earliest and more likely next season before its consistent.
That was the other dimension. Just because Klopp likes gegenpressing, it doesn't mean the players can execute it! 😆
Bellerin
Belle
Such a benching dilemma and wasted aoa stupidly last week.
Ali - brand new buy, on best form, should start
Arny - got him last week specifically for these two fixtures, blanked last week
Mahrez- have never benched since buying, dare risk it but could very well be brutally punished
This is so hard and I wish I still had the aoa chip. Feel like I wil make the wrong decision no matter what.Arny.
Mahrez should not be benched. I benched him once and burnt me like hell.
I'm sure if he didn't miss that penalty people won't even think about benching him his week.
Leicester not in great form and Mahrez has blanked 3 weeks in a row. Coming up against the best defence away from home this week in Spurs.
Hey Nabil, I replied you on my post above.
I got Arnie specifically for the upcoming 4 after Norwich - he's scored twice against City and once against Chelsea, Spurs, Everton and United. He got an anomaly goal against Villa, but yeah; should be on fire in the next 4 weeks!
Should I be playing AoA chip this week?
Butland
Bellerin - Ogbonna - Ward
Silva - Ozil - Payet - Mahrez
Lukaku - Kane - Aguero
Hennessey ; Alli - Moreno - DawsonChill out until Monday. An attacker could be injured by then.
Would make things easier lol
