When assessing defenders there are five main criteria Fantasy Premier League managers must consider: clean sheet potential, attacking potential, ‘nailed-ness’, price and bonus potential. It is the latter, which accounts for around one in twelve of all points awarded in the game, that this article will focus on.
Williams As The Benchmark
To set the scene let us first consider the case of Ashley Williams, whose 24 bonus points is the highest of any defender. Granted he has two goals to his name, but he clearly offers something extra given the wide discrepancy between his bonus point tally and Swans goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski, who has earned just four bonus points, with only one of those coming during their nine clean sheets.
Ahead of double Gameweek 37 the task for FPL managers is to try and find a Williams-esque defender who over their two games has the potential to earn multiple bonus points.
Bonus Thresholds
Another factor to consider is the thresholds for converting a good BPS score into actual bonus points. Here are the key BPS thresholds
60 – every player picked up three bonus points with a BPS score over this figure.
36 – half of all players reaching this threshold gained three bonus points.
32 – 85% of all played reaching this BPS score achieved a bonus, half of which gained two.
28 – half of all players with this BPS picked up at least one bonus point.
20 – no player with a BPS below that figure has earned a bonus point.
Baseline Bonus
BPS scores and bonus point awards are heavily linked to goal scoring and keeping clean sheets. To find out a bit more about why players like Williams do well we have to remove these two key criteria and focus on the baseline Bonus Point System score (BBPS). This leaves a range of other criteria, such as clearances, blocks and interceptions (CBI), crossing and big chance creation.
A key factor in Williams’ success is that he has a great BBPS as he does well at many of these other key criteria, in particular CBI. He currently has the best CBI score of any defender this season.
Playing for 60 minutes is another criteria of BPS allocation so for the purpose of this study I will only look at player statistics where they have played for over an hour. This slightly reduces the pool of data available, especially for players with lots of sub appearances but helps us to better compare apples with apples. Taking away clean sheet and goal points the above BPS threshold scores of 28, 32 and 36 can roughly translate into 10, 14 and 18 BBPS thresholds for achieving bonus.
The Double Gameweek Defences
Chelsea
As a whole there has been a lot of variance across Chelsea’s BBPS scores, but Cesar Azpilicueta just leads the line as a bonus prospect, with his average performance above the first BBPS threshold. His upper limit is also way beyond the third threshold, indicating that he does not require clean sheets to prosper.
Everton
Keeper Joel Robles and right back Seamus Coleman have both had off-the-chart BBPS scores in the past and Coleman even picked up bonus points in a 1-0 loss against Manchester United recently, however Jagielka has garnered the most consistent BBPS scores in Everton’s defence. The Everton captain, however is currently a doubt for the double Gameweek through injury, which makes Robles and Coleman the standout picks.
Liverpool
Mama Sakho was Liverpool’s standout option until his recent suspension by the club and with that still looming over him there is no clear second option, although Martin Skrtel and Kolo Touré have had the highest median performances when they have played. Dejan Lovren looks a poor pick in terms of bonus.
Manchester United
The missing piece of the puzzle in this defence is Daley Blind. He has been the real BBPS success story, but sadly is classified as a midfielder in FPL. That leaves Chris Smalling and Matteo Darmian to slug it out as the best prospects. Given his nailed-on-ness Smalling looks to the be best option.
Norwich City
Norwich are another defence now without their bonus point darling. With Timm Klose now injured, John Ruddy in goal is the new best bet as his saves contribute heavily to his BBPS scores.
Sunderland
Sunderland’s defence all score well in BBPS under Sam Allardyce but Jan Kirchhoff is the most consistent scorer here and can be considered unlucky to have been pipped by Vito Mannone to bonus awards in recent weeks. Patrick van Aanholt and Younes Kaboul have put up big BBPS scores on occasion but it is not the norm for them. At just 4.3 Kirchhoff could prove the best rival to Mannone in Sunderland’s bonus allocation.
Watford
Watford are another team where their keeper seems to be the key man for bonus points. This is partly due to Heurelho Gomes‘ good save record, but also that the rest of the Hornet’s defence has such a dire BBPS.
West Ham
Winston Reid seems to be the best bet in the West Ham defence with a median BBPS score that comfortably beats the rest of his back line. In goal Adrian has a couple of high scoring performances but that has not been his norm. Aaron Cresswell relies heavily on attack related BPS to achieve bonus points.
Conclusion
For Norwich and Watford the best chance of bonus will come from their keepers. Meanwhile, Sunderland is an interesting proposition. Currently their keeper is dominating, but in Kirchhoff they have an enticing under-the-radar option for bonus points. In terms of BBPS for West Ham, Reid looks the best bet, but Cresswell’s attacking potential is hard to ignore and has helped him achieve a respectable 12 bonus points so far this season.
For Chelsea, Azpilicueta dominates BBPS, as he has done in multiple previous studies into bonus allocation. If Jagielka is absent then Coleman and Robles will duke it out for defensive bonus at Everton, while Liverpool have been robbed of their best prospect, Sakho. Given rotation and lack of good bonus point magnets, the Liverpool defence offers little in terms of bonus over the double.
