Tuesday’s ScoutCast was an “interesting” episode.
It is ironic that we set out to explore how we can escape from achieving identical “template” squads, only to end up exposing just how differently we can all approach the game regardless.
Having reached loggerheads – particularly with Jonty – on risk-taking and early transfers, it prompted me to embark on some navel-gazing.
It made me question why – when so often we agree on the players to pursue – our methods of building a squad and a season from those targets differs so much.
This doubtless enters into realms of psychology and intelligence well beyond my capacity, but I was driven to entertain some theories nonetheless.
Most of all, I found it interesting that both Jonty and Andy would raise their experiences from the previous season as an influence.
Doubtless, we all take lessons from our previous campaigns, but perhaps the season before – our immediate recollection of strategies that succeed and fail – is the major driving force.
It makes sense that, following a “bad” season, we would “hunker down”, minimise risks and adopt a pragmatic approach next time around. This would lead us to perhaps consider player ownership and adhere to the template more rigidly.
Conversely, after a more successful season, we can sometimes react by exploring different approaches to the game, gamble with a few new player theories and reject what appears to be the “norm” on offer.
Looking back on my managerial history, there is a clear pattern.
My worst ever season in 2013/14 is immediately followed by my best. Did my experience of finishing just inside the top 200,000 influence the way approached my next attempt? Almost certainly.
My memories of that miserable campaign include failing to react to Aaron Ramsey and Yaya Toure as bandwagons and eventual template players. Did I take that as a lesson learned and apply it rigidly, with success, the season after?
I also notice that having finished a giddy 42nd in the world, I then “slumped” to my third worst score in eleven seasons a year later. Was that because I reacted by being more reckless with my methods?
True to form, that unsatisfactory campaign was followed by my second best ever rank last season.
So perhaps I’m locked in this cycle of accepting a strict and disciplined approach as a route to a higher rank, only to rebel against it in the season that follows.
That’s where I find myself now. I’ve perhaps only gone to Jamie Vardy over Roberto Firmino because I’m driven more by the thrill of playing the game, than by an attempt to secure a creditable rank.
It doesn’t feel that way. For me, overall rank is always king, but perhaps subliminally, after a strong season, the maverick gene thrives in me, and I need something more.
Even if I entertain that theory, I don’t think my approach to early transfers will change. For me, that’s now part of my Fantasy manager DNA.
While I know the perils of moving early in the market, the frustration of missing a transfer target by 0.1 will always drive me to exploit opportunities to save cash. I’ll mitigate the situation with two transfers or a strong bench, but I’ll gladly take a risk to protect funds.
I struggle to see how we can preach the template as a route to success, but also claim that there are always strong alternative targets when restricted by budget. That sounds like a “cake and eat it” scenario.
If I take a risk on a differential, I want it to be a decision based on my view of the points on offer, not because I’m 0.1 short of the player I really want.
That’s a no win situation for me. If the differential fails, the frustration of missing out on your original target is huge. If the move comes off, it’s almost a happy accident – a decision made due to budget restrictions, not research and insight. I almost give myself no credit for that.
Perhaps that last statement is key.
Andy may have hit the nail on the head when he remarked that we can get hooked on seeking highs, taking risks with transfers to achieve them.
Perhaps I’m playing to gain credit now – to be able to indulge in self-congratulation. And when the rank from the previous season offers enough reassurance, I let the horses run free in pursuit of moments to form my season highlights reel.
Vardy is off, galloping through the woods with abandon. Firmino is contently grazing back in the stable.
History tells me I’ve probably backed the wrong horse, but this season I need the thrill of those longer odds.
