Spot the Differential
3 February 2018 1682 comments
James H James H
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Our selection of Theo Walcott paid off handsomely in midweek, so now we go in seek of more differentials who can get close to his explosive 15-point return.

We’ve opted for two more midfielders with promising home fixtures, while a Crystal Palace striker is backed to build on his recent run of form.

Mesut Ozil

Fresh from signing a new three-year contract with the Gunners, and given his outstanding home form, Mesut Ozil gets our seal of approval for today’s late kick-off against Everton.

The Arsenal midfielder has produced three goals and five assists in his last eight matches at the Emirates Stadium, only blanking against Manchester United and Chelsea.

He is creating a chance every 22 minutes at home, compared to every 30 minutes on the road, and faces an appetising match-up against the Toffees.

Sam Allardyce’s side conceded four goals on their last trip to London, when they lost 4-0 to Tottenham Hotspur, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in five straight matches.

Indeed, over the last four Gameweeks, they have conceded more big chances (13) than any other team.

Ozil, who is owned by just 2.6% of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers, will be starting alongside Henrikh Mkhitaryan in the attacking midfield positions for the Gunners, while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang could make his Premier League debut if he recovers from illness.

The new faces should help provide fresh impetus to the Arsenal attack, and Ozil, who costs 9.3 in FPL, is expected to be a central figure in another strong home performance.

Christian Benteke

A favourable home fixture against Newcastle United on the back of a goal and three assists over the last four Gameweeks leads us to believe that Crystal Palace’s Christian Benteke can deliver in Gameweek 26.

The Belgian was on the scoresheet in the 1-1 draw with West Ham United in midweek and will carry that confidence into Sunday’s encounter.

There is also the fact that he now has competition for his place following the arrival of Norwegian target man Alexander Sorloth, giving the former Liverpool striker no room for complacency.

Benteke tops the forward ranks for big chances (five) over the last four Gameweeks. And with Andros Townsend and Wilfried Zaha manning the supply line, he should continue to get the opportunities to build on Tuesday night’s goal.

Certainly Newcastle don’t appear to have the defensive resolve to deal with the Palace threat. They arrive at Selhurst Park with just one clean sheet from their last 10 away matches and only three teams have conceded more big chances than the Magpies (nine) over the last four Gameweeks.

Rafa Benitez’s men also sit fourth for the most headed attempts (10) conceded from those four fixtures, which is certainly an area that Benteke can look to exploit.

Sat in just 2.4% of FPL squads and available at 7.6, the Eagles striker looks the ideal gamble for Fantasy managers seeking a one-week punt.

Junior Stanislas

It’s easy to see why Bournemouth’s Junior Stanislas has made the cut this week.

The Cherries midfielder registered a goal and an assist in Wednesday night’s outstanding 3-0 victory over Chelsea and has a plum home fixture against Stoke City this afternoon.

No team has conceded more goals away from home than the Potters (30), although they are yet to concede in two matches under new boss Paul Lambert.

But Stanislas’ track record against Stoke further enhances his appeal.

The midfielder totalled a season-high 13 points when the two sides last met in Gameweek 9, registering a goal, assist and maximum bonus.

He also produced a goal and an assist across the two matches against the Potters during the 2016/17 season.

Injuries have restricted Stanislas to just 10 starts this season, but he boasts an impressive goal involvement rate of 50% when in the side.

Matches against Huddersfield Town and Newcastle over the next three Gameweeks mean he also has the platform to maintain form beyond today’s clash.

Team-mate Callum Wilson has been attracting all the investment ahead of the Gameweek 26 deadline, while Stanislas resides in just 0.3% of FPL squads.

Priced at 5.9 in FPL, Stanislas can provide a worthy differential and perhaps a natural replacement for Shaqiri in our squads once Stoke’s fixture stiffen up.

  1. Millie22
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Foster to DDG for -4?

    1. SpinyNorman [*_*]
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Never hit for a GK!

    2. IRBOX ⚽
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      No. Baggies will Keep a clean sheet. That’s just silly

    3. Make United Great Again
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      No

    4. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Do it - DDG is worth it

  2. SpinyNorman [*_*]
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Am I gtg?

    Foster
    Ogbonna Daniels Hegazi
    KDB Sterling Salah(c) Lingard Stanislas
    Kane Firmino

    Bench: Jordan Ayew, Kabesele, 3.9

    1. IRBOX ⚽
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Double West Brom defence?

  3. Sahil Yadav
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Do you think Wilson(c) would be good?

    1. Bojaninho
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      why not, live a little 😀

    2. SpinyNorman [*_*]
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      What are your other options?

      1. Sahil Yadav
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 29 days ago

        Kane, Salah, Sterling, Alli, Hazard

        1. stamboy
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 29 days ago

          wilson is my captain and saleh my vc

    3. abaalan
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Im going for it !

  4. rozzo
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    De Gea
    Alonso Otamendi Mee
    Salah Sterling Son Lingard
    Kane Firmino Wilson

    Nordfeldt Carroll Bardsley Kenny

    1ft
    0 in the bank

    Okay to save, can't see anything to do other than shift Kenny. Wilson as captain okay?

  5. OptimusBlack
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Kane C ?
    Yaaaaaaay
    Naaaaaaay Aguero / Salaah

    1. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      salah

  6. Hedge
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Mahrez to (-4):
    a) Ozil
    b) Willian
    c) Eriksen
    d) Play Ibe and don't take a hit

    1. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      d

  7. Kun Tozser
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Captain this week ?

    Hazard
    Aguero
    Wilson

    ?

    1. Make United Great Again
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Aguero

    2. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Aguero for me

    3. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      CBA

  8. Another Hoops
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    I did Son > Sanchez for free this week but I'm still capping Aguero. Sterling is my only other consideration.

    1. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      captain Sanchez

  9. TaiwanHC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Mahrez + Christensen --> Walcott + Jones?

    1. IRBOX ⚽
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Jones might be rested

    2. Make United Great Again
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Yes

    3. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      wait

  10. Make United Great Again
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Would it surprise you if City become the first team to thrash Burnley away this season?

    1. Defcons are for Kinnear
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      No

    2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Of course not

    3. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      What do you consider a thrashing? Spurs beat them 3-0 on home turf

  11. Sim Simma
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Bottomed

    Stones,Son out to bring Aubameyang ? Yay or Nay

    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Not this week

    2. Railwayman
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      No.

    3. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      no, wait same as last rely 2 mins ago

  12. Sgt Frank Drebin
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    So, I was bored and decided to have some fun with Excel's add-in Solver, which is used for finding an optimal solution for maximilizing a function with many variables. Maybe some wiill find it usefull so I decided to post it here.

    I set a function maximilizing points per game, as some players didn't play for a long time because of injury. I also decided to select only 11 players, as the bench don't get you any points and it would be very difficult to set. However, I put a constrain of 82.5 mln at a disposal for that 11 players as I calculated that averege bench costs more or less 17.5 mln.

    So my constrains were 82.5 mln at a disposal, 1 goalkeeper, at least 3 defenders, 3 midfielders and 1 striker, maximum of 5 defenders, 5 midfielders and 3 strikers. Of course also total of 11 players.

    Keep in mind that I didn't include captaincy whatsoever because I think that was undoable, but from what I saw in the result that wouldn't change much. I also had to manually exclude some data that significantly influenced the results, like players playing one game and having 9 ppg. or long-term injured players.

    Surpisingly (or not) Solver decided for 1-5-3-2 formation with these players with 64 points per gameweek.

    Pope
    Alonso - Valencia - Jones - Davies - Monreal
    Salah - Sterling - Pogba
    Aguero - Wilson

    Please also note, that the outcome was changing as I was excluding players by ne and run the optimalization again. At first in the team were selected the likes of Trippier, Niasse, Ward, Bailly, Alexander - Arnold. At some point also De Bruyne was in the team, but it changed when I excluded Niasse. I don't know if you will agree with this, but I believe it would freak the result of getting as much points as possible at the end of the season, as these players do not play every game. I also didni't know if to keep Davies, but he is playing recently so decided to not exclude him. The formation was also changing from 5-4-1 to 4-5-1 and finally 5-3-2.

    If you have any thoughts or remarks I would be glad to hear them. If you have any ideas how to include captaincy or bench I would also be very happy to hear from you.

    1. That Was Easy!
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      As a tech guy by employment, I very much appreciate this.

    2. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Would be interesting to run with only nailed on players

      1. Sgt Frank Drebin
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 29 days ago

        Without Davies it is:
        Pope
        Alonso - Azpilicueta - Valencia - Jones - Monreal
        Salah - Sterling - Pogba
        Aguero - Wilson

    3. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Expected and someone has done a similar simulation before which favoured a heavier defense. The difference being the fact that we make transfers, and tend to shift the more expensive attacking players around as their big scores are bigger on average.

      1. Sgt Frank Drebin
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 29 days ago

        That's what I was thinking too. Defenders have much more stable returns and it favours them in the long run, when transfers aren't taken into account. But we have them it probably changes the outcome because of the fact you have mentioned.

    4. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      You need to calculate expected weekly score to have it select a captain no? The numbers are based upon PPG so far so "static". That said, are you going to run this team as a ghost team for the rest of the season and use your judgement to captain and deal with injuries using the same algo to select the next best PPG player?

      1. Sgt Frank Drebin
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 29 days ago

        Maybe I will run this team, I wasn't going to, but why not. I am interested how it will do. I will select captain using my judgement and deal with injuries using the algo, as you've said.

    5. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      you must be an excel guru

  13. Garfield1001
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Play Ogbonna (bha) or Niasse (ars)?

    Thanks

    1. MarvelouSuccess
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      ogbonna

    2. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      niasse

  14. Sims
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    mahrez last week

    jones(possibly) this week

    season crumbling before i even get to use the chips 🙄

    1. Sim Simma
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      All because you changed your name Sims

    2. The Royal Robin
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Whassup with Jones?

    3. BobBradleysOpportunity
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      jones not playing with any sub coming in is not that big a loss at all....at best you could hope for 9 from him, and thats not a given

  15. Defcons are for Kinnear
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    So after the shock reaction, I will play Son instead of Ogbonna. If Ogbonna outscores Son I’m coming back on here with the “why did I listen to FFS line”

    1. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Play your own game and don’t blame others

    2. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      It's always your decision. Go with your gut, it's not like people here are experts

  16. Bojaninho
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Ramsey or Son to start.

    Could be goals for Arsenal with Everton at home, Liverpool not conceded much at home?

    have i answered my own question?

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Not really... Id go for Son

    2. Luton_Fan
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Ramsey without doubt

    3. wbm
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      You seem to have answered what you think.
      I'd go Son tho.

  17. wbm
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    What is the preferred burnley defense when all are available?
    Ward and Tarkowski probably back soon?

  18. FC Hakkebøf
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Brighton vs WHU predictions? Winner is set up for good karma

    1. Sim Simma
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      1-1

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 29 days ago

        My thoughts too..

    2. Luton_Fan
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      1-0

  19. Defcons are for Kinnear
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    New post

  20. The Royal Robin
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Sterling or Kane (C?)

    Aaaaaghhhh!!

  21. To infinity and beyond
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Start Mili or Shaq?

  22. FC Hakkebøf
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Bournemouth vs Stoke predictions?

    1. COLLIN QUANER
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      1-3

    2. RoryzonderR
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      B 2- S 1

    3. Champione
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      3-1

  23. JimmyCoop
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Time to get rid of RLC and get a new 5th mid (max 4.8):

    A) Ibe
    B) Mili
    C) Someone else?

    1. Clifford☯
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      A

  24. Desperately Seeking Dusan
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    I honesty think there are a lot of people who have torn their teams apart to get Kun or switched Kane for Kun against WBA in and now have confirmation - no, not confirmation - but hope bias and need to justify the move.

  25. The Royal Robin
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    First sub if Jones doesn't play?

    A) VVD
    B) Ogbonna

    1. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      a

  26. Clifford☯
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Which transfer do you prefer?

    A) Quaner to Wilson (-4)
    B) Mahrez to Pogba / Martial (-4)

    1. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      a all day long

  27. Folars
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Christensen -> Maguire/Jones/Smalling
    a)Maguire
    b)Jones
    c)Smalling
    d)Other

    1. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      b if a doesnt play today

  28. The Red Devil
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Captain who?
    Aguero
    Salah
    Hazard
    Wilson
    Chasing my ML

    1. Viper
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      I'm going Wilson I think but I'd go Aguero if I had him

      1. stamboy
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 29 days ago

        willy and I have Kun

  29. Viper
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Think I'm going to stick with Wilson (c). No one else is jumping out at me. Not overly happy about it though.

    Salah is probably the sensible choice (not chasing)

    1. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      I'm in too

  30. AccountAnt80
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 29 days ago

    Mee is only sub if Jones doesn't play. Should I do Masuaku to Daniels for a hit?

    1. tisza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      wait there should be a utd update before deadline.

    2. Luton_Fan
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 29 days ago

      Same dilemma. Could do kenny to daniels for a hit. Think i will hold and pray