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31 March 2018 1122 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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This is truly Wildcard season. Managers have put the chip in play and used what has felt like a long international break to rid themselves of Gameweek 31 “mediocrity” and prepare for the Double Gameweeks in 34 and potentially 37.

The players selected in these Wildcards may well vary depending on the strategy for the rest of the season, and might, in particular, depend on whether the Free Hit chip is still intact to handle the missing fixtures in Gameweek 35.

The purpose of this post-deadline article is to shed some light on the selections made by Gameweek 32 Wildcarders and how the Free Hit may have influenced their decision making.

This will help managers who are yet to Wildcard identify the popular player selections, and also give those who have already Wildcarded an idea of what they are up against and how they compare.

Collecting the data for all the top 100k Fantasy Premier League managers, we see that 15.87% of them chose to Wildcard this week to raise the total percentage of top 100k managers who used the chip from 43.36% to 59.22%.

Meanwhile, for the top 10k managers, the percentage of Wildcards is much higher. Wildcards used went from 39.21% to 60.74% with 21.53% activating the chip this week.

The percentages together with their Free Hit availability are shown in the table below.

% of WCs % of Wildcarders with FH remaining % of Wildcarders with no FH remaining
Top 10k 21.53% 63.82% 36.18%
Top 100k 15.87% 58.28% 41.72%


To get an idea about how other chips were played this week and how that raised the use of all chips in the top 10k and 100k managers, we plot the chip use before and after the deadline.

We see that the Wildcard is the only chip that gained a significant boost in use, just as we expected.

members

There are still around 40% of top-ranked managers who are yet to use their Wildcard, with maybe a big percentage of them deploying the chip ahead of Gameweek 33.

It will be interesting to see whether the decision to delay will change their choices.

For example, there could be more emphasis on Romelu Lukaku and Ashley Barnes instead of the likes of Johann Gudmundsson and Eric Bailly, who both missed out today.

Now, let’s move to look at the most popular picks for Wildcard managers.

The following two images show the most selected players for Gameweek 32 Wildcarders who still own the Free Hit, alongside the line-up for those without that chip to play.

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We can see the choices are very similar with just Lukaku featuring more in teams without Fee Hit, while Roberto Firmino is in more teams with the Free Hit still to play. That is somewhat surprising since it’s Firmino who has a fixture in Gameweek 35.

However, delving deeper, the Lukaku and Firmino ownership for both groups of managers is very close. I feel that we can put them both on equal footing since they come with 48.5% and 48.1% for teams with no Free Hit remaining, and 47.8% and 47.9% for those squads with the chip still intact.

Therefore, we can say that the picks for both parties are essentially the same.

It seems that regardless of whether Gameweek 32 Wildcard managers still had the Free Hit available or not, they chose to follow the “template” which turns out to be not just popular here on Fantasy Football Scout, but also among the top 100k.

The next most highly owned players in Wildcards that are not shown in the image are: Nick Pope in goal, Shkodran Mustafi and James Tarkowski in defence, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Kennedy in midfield and Barnes in attack.

Again those players show similar percentages for managers with and without Free Hit.

To look at the bias of Double Gameweek teams, and whether managers without Free Hit will tend to favour teams who have a fixture in Gameweek 35, we have plotted the average number of players from each Premier League team in Wildcard squads.

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Again, we see no significant difference between the two groups of managers.

Leicester is the most popular source of talent for Wildcard managers with more than two players per squad.

Liverpool and Arsenal, who don’t play twice in Gameweek 34, rank in third and fifth places showing that most managers opted to keep the likes of Mohamed Salah, Firmino, Andrew Robertson, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Mustafi rather than just focus purely on Double Gameweek options.

In summary, the template picks are widespread amongst the top managers’ Wildcards, and those who don’t have their Free Hit also chose to follow it.

With the Wildcards and planning ahead, we will now look at the ongoing Gameweek and the exact selection statistics for the top 100k managers.

Given how close the gap is within those teams, they give a better sample of active players than just the top 10k.

The Gameweek 32 Captaincy
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Salah continues to be the top choice this week, providing a consistent return of 7 points for the 75.01% managers that favoured him.

The 11.95% managers who chose the differential Aubameyang will now be waiting anxiously to see if he can match or better the Egyptians output against Stoke City.

Next, we present the players with the biggest Effective Ownership (EO), which is the regular ownership plus captaincy, in each position in the top 100k.


GK EO DEF EO
David de Gea 47.23% Nicolás Otamendi 44.45%
Robert Elliot 24.23% Ben Davies 33.10%
Nick Pope 20.53% Andrew Robertson 26.88%
Lukasz Fabianski 11.14% Ben Mee 22.94%
Mathew Ryan 11.03% Marcos Alonso 20.00%
Ben Foster 10.47% César Azpilicueta 17.33%
Adrián 7.10% Virgil van Dijk 15.97%
Jonas Lössl 6.97% Matthew Lowton 15.05%


MID EO FWD EO
Mohamed Salah 174.66% Roberto Firmino 79.22%
Heung-Min Son 36.63% Aubameyang 55.65%
Riyad Mahrez 34.77% Romelu Lukaku 37.81%
Raheem Sterling 26.62% Jamie Vardy 30.43%
Willian 21.20% Callum Wilson 18.83%
Pascal Groß 21.14% Glenn Murray 10.69%
Xherdan Shaqiri 18.82% Sergio Agüero 10.66%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan 18.81% Jordan Ayew 9.23%


Finally, I was curious to know which countries were present the most in the top 100k. So I leave you with the top-ranked territories in Fantasy Premier League so far.

After the expected English dominance come the Egyptians (including myself) who are enjoying a great season thanks to probably trusting Salah very early in the campaign.

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1,122 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. diesel001
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Nice analyis Ragabolly!

    1. Jay_
      8 years, 4 months ago

      He’s brilliant. I bet Mark is over the moon to have him on board.

      1. LǝgleSs e|even
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Must be a Data Scientist by day

        1. Amsterhammer
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          He mentioned what he does the other day. Not a data scientist. I think a physicist of some sort.

    2. Point-one short
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Agreed - really interesting analysis and great afdition to the FFS team.

  2. Zilla
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    "For the supporters I can understand. I'm a Barcelona supporter and we were able to win the league at home to Real Madrid and that is so special.
    We are going to adapt the game against United with respect to the Liverpool games. The line up will be thinking about Liverpool." - Pep.

    Hmmm, play all United players then?

    1. Epic Fail
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      I would only bench Man Utd defenders anyway. Would never bench the likes of Lukaku

      1. Zilla
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        DDG and Bailly on the bench feels wrong but maybe cause I support United only dunno, will be a late decision for me.

        1. Epic Fail
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          Man City are almost guaranteed to score I'd say. No matter what the end result.

          1. Zilla
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 4 months ago

            I guess I'd just end up with the 2 on the bench but will tinker a lot. My other defenders got good fixtures too to be fair so maybe I just start them.

  3. denial
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    F Murray.

    1. Jay_
      8 years, 4 months ago

      +1

  4. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Lovely stuff.

  5. semiconductor
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    I really need your help deciding. I'm already having in my current team
    2 Arsenal
    3 Liverpool
    1 Burnely
    1 Man city
    1 stoke
    2 Everton

    All playing with good fixtures gw35. I would get at least 6 of those back on gw35. Plus i will lose huge values on sterling, firminho and robertson. My plan was WCing this gw but now I have 10 players from those playing gw35 already. Can bring another 2 city players. What do you think? Should I FH on gw34 instead of BB and save WC and BB for gw36 and gw37?

    1. LǝgleSs e|even
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Build your team now towards GW35, do a FH on 34. Then WC on 36 and BB37. TC 38

      1. Slitherene
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        If I FH in 34, will I get a transfer for 35?

        1. Pilgrim62
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          One regular transfer

      2. semiconductor
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Yes that was my thinking. You agree thats a good move?

    2. Pilgrim62
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Good strategy

      1. semiconductor
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        You think i should go with this new plan?? Exactly like LEGLESS said?

    3. Whats the Huth
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      This is what I'm doing.

      Taking a minus four to get 11 out for GW35

      1. semiconductor
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        I think i might not need a hit. I already have 10 of those now

        1. Whats the Huth
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          In a better position than me then 🙂

          I'm getting an Arsenal defender in this week

          1. semiconductor
            • 12 Years
            8 years, 4 months ago

            I want to do the same but I'll have to lose stans

  6. George James
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Score predictions.

    Arsenal vs Stoke
    Chelsea vs Spurs

    1. LǝgleSs e|even
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      3-1
      1-1

    2. Epic Fail
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      2-2
      1-2

    3. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      5-1
      1-1

    4. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      3-0
      2-2

    5. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      3 - 0
      1 - 1

    6. RESULT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      3-1
      2-1

    7. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      3-0
      1-1

    8. Spokey
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      3-0
      1-1

    9. Garth Marenghi
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      3-0
      1-1

  7. diesel001
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    GW33 WC:

    De Gea - Ryan
    Lowton - Alderweireld - Morgan - Rudiger - Robertson
    Salah(c) - Son - Willian - Gross - Mahrez
    Aubameyang - Vardy - Barnes

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Why Alderweireld and Rudiger? Rest looks solid

      1. diesel001
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Can't afford Alonso and want a secure starter so Rudiger gets the nod. Toby - like the look of Spurs' fixtures especially next week with Stoke.

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          Think Toby is out of favour at minute. Is Rudiger nailed?

    2. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      ITB? Looks gtg. Might consider Eriksen over Son. A lot depends on how the London Derby goes.

      1. diesel001
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Will upgrade Auba to Lukaku in GW34 with my FT.

        1. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          Fair play then. Not tempted by Lingard?

    3. Whats the Huth
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      I wouldn't have Son or Willan

    4. Whats the Huth
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Get Kane in also.

    5. Point-one short
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      I'd be more inclined to go Christensen Vertonghen. Think Christ is pretty nailed and vertonghen will play each game.

  8. Pat Bonner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Would you wc this team with no fh? Was hoping to do it in 36 to maximise BB in 37 but had a poor week so thinking of pulling the trigger

    Pope Elliot
    Alonso vvd mee baines Schindler
    Stanislas salah Mahrez Mkhitaryan Shaqiri
    Firmino Aubameyang Wilson

    1. Epic Fail
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Just make a couple of potential WC teams and see which you prefer.

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        No doubt I could make a better team but lack of FH makes it really tricky to maximise 34 and have a team for 35. Will go with my gut on this and hold

        1. Epic Fail
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          This is what I mean, I'd put pen to paper on 2 tactics, get it all planned. You've got membership too so you could put both plans into RMT and see which one comes out with more points. I think it's far more complicated then one of us just saying which way you should go.

          1. Pat Bonner
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 15 Years
            8 years, 4 months ago

            Cheers, sound advice. Will do that and see how it looks

    2. RESULT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Don't like Shaq Baines vvd

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Yep and Wilson! Will use transfer on one of these this week. Prob not enough to wc then

    3. BC1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      No need really. Shaqiri first sub, then Mee, Baines.

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers

    4. Whats the Huth
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      How many points this week

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        27 with 3 to go!

        1. Whats the Huth
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          Ah right.
          Perhaps a minus four?
          Shaqiri /Stan and Wilson out?

          1. Pat Bonner
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 15 Years
            8 years, 4 months ago

            Cheers, thinking those and Baines are first on the chopping block

  9. BC1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Super stuff, cheers

  10. England23
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Need help with my bench order or if some should start,

    DDG
    Alonso Mustafi Robertson
    Salah Willian Mkhi Mahrez
    Aubameyang Firm Wood

    Subs: Pope Groß Lowton Morgan

    Thanks guys

    1. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Might play Pope over DDG

  11. Fresh_From_Desh
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Seriously impressive work!

    Thanks

  12. Slitherene
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    If I FH in 34, will I get a transfer for 35?

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Just the usual 1 FT

    2. Epic Fail
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Yes. 1

  13. borat
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    What are the chances that pope lose his spot before dgw

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Personally think it’s unlikely. Didn’t hear how he played today but see no reason for him to be dropped. Heaton not even on the bench today

  14. Whats the Huth
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    This is superb!

  15. Rains of Castamere
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Gross on next penalty? That's two missed for Murray.

    1. Syd.
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Murray missed a penalty

      Oh good. Didn’t see any football today

    2. Epic Fail
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Probably Murray.

  16. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    A staggering bit of analysis, turned around so quickly. Thank you.

    1. Syd.
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Brains

  17. Syd.
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Ben Crellin could make a living out of this stuff

    Oh wait

  18. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    2 q’s -
    DDG or Ryan next week?
    Anyone know Auba’s EO in top 10k this week?

    1. Epic Fail
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      I'm going Ryan.

  19. Annie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Brilliant article

  20. istanbul05
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Disappointing week, 35 with just Auba to go and Chilwell on my bench... Time to hit the WC button?

    Lossl, Adrian,
    Otamendi, Robertson, Mee, Chilwell, Mbemba,
    Salah, Mahrez, Walcott, Stanislas, Choupo Moting,
    Auba, Firmino, Wilson.

    1. Ghost Gooner
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      WC

    2. Deulofail
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Disappointed with 35pts? 😮

      Stick with whatever your plan was before this week. The points tally you got today doesn't change anything.

      1. istanbul05
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        With 1 left to play looks like a red arrow, always disappointing to drop.

        To be fair I had an open mind on if I should WC GW33 or 36. Leaning towards pressing the button tonight.

  21. Gudjohnsen
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Captained Auba instead of Salah. How should I feel about that?

    1. ZeBestee
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      tomorrow will give you the answer, God willing.

    2. Whats the Huth
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Comfortable.

    3. 1966 was a great year for E…
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Like you dodged a bullet.

  22. ZeBestee
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Those WC now, will you go with D.Silva? Or he is too risky with personal issues and rotation?

  23. Gegenpress
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Guys just activated my wildcard any tips:

    Lloris (Ryan)

    Alonso Christensen Vertonghen Morgan (Smalling)

    Salah Son Willian Mahrez (Lingard)

    Lukaku (Barnes Murray)

    1. borat
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Too heavy in def. Murray to vardy and Christensen to someone cheap.
      Also lukaku has mancity next week. Tough fixture for him to score. Should go with auba for next gw with 1mill or so in the bank. Next week with 1ft you can do auba to lukaku

      1. Gegenpress
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        True but next week will also be in between the City Liverpool Champions League ties. I brought Auba in this past week, I need 3 subs to bring Kane in for 37 TC as well

        1. Gegenpress
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          Christensen to someone cheap doesn't give me enough for vardy

  24. Vlad Tepes
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Thoughts about this WC? all chips intact, think I will BB 34 but I am also building a team for GW 37 (with picks like Verthongen etc.)

    DDG, Ryan
    Alonso, Verthongen, Morgan, Lowton, Masuaku
    Arnautovic, Willian, Salah, Mahrez, Lingard
    Kane, Murray, Vardy

    0 ITB

  25. Woys_Stowy
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Have WC, freehit, benchboost, TC.

    No clue what order to play them.

    Any tips?

    1. Whats the Huth
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      FH34
      WC36
      BB37
      TC38

    2. istanbul05
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Depends on your team now.

      I'm not happy with mine so will WC33, BB34, FH35 and TC37.

    3. Stats Don\'t Lie
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      TC34
      FH35
      WC36
      BB37

  26. Feloh
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    are that baps in yet

    what is the avg so far post baps?

    1. Disco Stu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      I see Lukaku got 2 baps, but no one else on my team did including Captain Salah

    2. Stats Don\'t Lie
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Yeah, my only baps came from...wait for it... Rondon!

  27. Fred54
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Anyone else still totally clueless on how they are using the chips? I just used my WC to attack this GW and next and will just wing it from there. Tactic seems to be working. Still have all other chips.

    Might even play BB in a non DGW heaven forbid.

  28. borat
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Which teams potentially have dgw 37

  29. Jigger & Pony
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Great analysis Ragabolly

  30. borat
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    On wc who should I have
    a) Ryan , lowton
    b) pope, smalling

    1. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      a