Metrics
31 March 2018 1122 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
Share:

This is truly Wildcard season. Managers have put the chip in play and used what has felt like a long international break to rid themselves of Gameweek 31 “mediocrity” and prepare for the Double Gameweeks in 34 and potentially 37.

The players selected in these Wildcards may well vary depending on the strategy for the rest of the season, and might, in particular, depend on whether the Free Hit chip is still intact to handle the missing fixtures in Gameweek 35.

The purpose of this post-deadline article is to shed some light on the selections made by Gameweek 32 Wildcarders and how the Free Hit may have influenced their decision making.

This will help managers who are yet to Wildcard identify the popular player selections, and also give those who have already Wildcarded an idea of what they are up against and how they compare.

Collecting the data for all the top 100k Fantasy Premier League managers, we see that 15.87% of them chose to Wildcard this week to raise the total percentage of top 100k managers who used the chip from 43.36% to 59.22%.

Meanwhile, for the top 10k managers, the percentage of Wildcards is much higher. Wildcards used went from 39.21% to 60.74% with 21.53% activating the chip this week.

The percentages together with their Free Hit availability are shown in the table below.

% of WCs% of Wildcarders with FH remaining% of Wildcarders with no FH remaining
Top 10k21.53%63.82%36.18%
Top 100k15.87%58.28%41.72%


To get an idea about how other chips were played this week and how that raised the use of all chips in the top 10k and 100k managers, we plot the chip use before and after the deadline.

We see that the Wildcard is the only chip that gained a significant boost in use, just as we expected.

members

There are still around 40% of top-ranked managers who are yet to use their Wildcard, with maybe a big percentage of them deploying the chip ahead of Gameweek 33.

It will be interesting to see whether the decision to delay will change their choices.

For example, there could be more emphasis on Romelu Lukaku and Ashley Barnes instead of the likes of Johann Gudmundsson and Eric Bailly, who both missed out today.

Now, let’s move to look at the most popular picks for Wildcard managers.

The following two images show the most selected players for Gameweek 32 Wildcarders who still own the Free Hit, alongside the line-up for those without that chip to play.

members

members

We can see the choices are very similar with just Lukaku featuring more in teams without Fee Hit, while Roberto Firmino is in more teams with the Free Hit still to play. That is somewhat surprising since it’s Firmino who has a fixture in Gameweek 35.

However, delving deeper, the Lukaku and Firmino ownership for both groups of managers is very close. I feel that we can put them both on equal footing since they come with 48.5% and 48.1% for teams with no Free Hit remaining, and 47.8% and 47.9% for those squads with the chip still intact.

Therefore, we can say that the picks for both parties are essentially the same.

It seems that regardless of whether Gameweek 32 Wildcard managers still had the Free Hit available or not, they chose to follow the “template” which turns out to be not just popular here on Fantasy Football Scout, but also among the top 100k.

The next most highly owned players in Wildcards that are not shown in the image are: Nick Pope in goal, Shkodran Mustafi and James Tarkowski in defence, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Kennedy in midfield and Barnes in attack.

Again those players show similar percentages for managers with and without Free Hit.

To look at the bias of Double Gameweek teams, and whether managers without Free Hit will tend to favour teams who have a fixture in Gameweek 35, we have plotted the average number of players from each Premier League team in Wildcard squads.

members

Again, we see no significant difference between the two groups of managers.

Leicester is the most popular source of talent for Wildcard managers with more than two players per squad.

Liverpool and Arsenal, who don’t play twice in Gameweek 34, rank in third and fifth places showing that most managers opted to keep the likes of Mohamed Salah, Firmino, Andrew Robertson, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Mustafi rather than just focus purely on Double Gameweek options.

In summary, the template picks are widespread amongst the top managers’ Wildcards, and those who don’t have their Free Hit also chose to follow it.

With the Wildcards and planning ahead, we will now look at the ongoing Gameweek and the exact selection statistics for the top 100k managers.

Given how close the gap is within those teams, they give a better sample of active players than just the top 10k.

The Gameweek 32 Captaincy
members

Salah continues to be the top choice this week, providing a consistent return of 7 points for the 75.01% managers that favoured him.

The 11.95% managers who chose the differential Aubameyang will now be waiting anxiously to see if he can match or better the Egyptians output against Stoke City.

Next, we present the players with the biggest Effective Ownership (EO), which is the regular ownership plus captaincy, in each position in the top 100k.


GKEODEFEO
David de Gea47.23%Nicolás Otamendi44.45%
Robert Elliot24.23%Ben Davies33.10%
Nick Pope20.53%Andrew Robertson26.88%
Lukasz Fabianski11.14%Ben Mee22.94%
Mathew Ryan11.03%Marcos Alonso20.00%
Ben Foster10.47%César Azpilicueta17.33%
Adrián7.10%Virgil van Dijk15.97%
Jonas Lössl6.97%Matthew Lowton15.05%


MIDEOFWDEO
Mohamed Salah174.66%Roberto Firmino79.22%
Heung-Min Son36.63%Aubameyang55.65%
Riyad Mahrez34.77%Romelu Lukaku37.81%
Raheem Sterling26.62%Jamie Vardy30.43%
Willian21.20%Callum Wilson18.83%
Pascal Groß21.14%Glenn Murray10.69%
Xherdan Shaqiri18.82%Sergio Agüero10.66%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan18.81%Jordan Ayew9.23%


Finally, I was curious to know which countries were present the most in the top 100k. So I leave you with the top-ranked territories in Fantasy Premier League so far.

After the expected English dominance come the Egyptians (including myself) who are enjoying a great season thanks to probably trusting Salah very early in the campaign.

members

  1. dark91
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 days ago

    Ibra will have fun in the MLS
    Scores 2 goals on his debut to come back and win 4-3 including a 40 yard stunner

  2. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 7 days ago

    Pretty happy with the old WC. 17 more points than the previous team, and much better set up. Would have liked to wait, but would have been priced out.

  3. merin
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 days ago

    What would you change here?

    DDG Fabianski
    Smalling Christensen Morgan Lowton vdH
    Salah Son Willian Mahrez Ki
    Auba Firmino Vardy

    FT: 0, ITB: 0.7

    1. merin
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      Ehm, 1 FT

    2. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      Save

    3. Clintymints
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      Looks like a wc?

      nothing until tomorrow at least

  4. Gnu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 7 days ago

    Help required,
    As a self-confessed but as many of my friends, competitors and vanquished foes have said over the years " Your a FPL leg-end", I'm in a quandry as I'm on 26 points and in need of transfer surgery,

    So it's :-
    Foster, Adrian & Doucore > Ryan, DdG & Son for -8 HIT

    I'm sure I don't need to explain I'm doing this why but I need reassurance.

    A) Your a legend Gnu.
    B) WTF?

    Be gentle.

    1. Numb
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      A

      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      As I always say to Jinswick, it's A for me.

      1. Lawrø
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        😆

    2. Numb
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      Hold on, your team linked doesn't have those outgoing players?

      1. Numb
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        But still A

      2. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        ......... 😛

        1. Numb
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          Multiple teams is against the rules in FPL! And FFS has a zero tolerance approach to it.

      3. Business Cat
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        ...maybe this is the cunning plan...

    3. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      Why stop at -8?

    4. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      You're definitely a legend. At least I think you are. How many teams do you have? That will help me work it out . . .

    5. Back on the horse
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      A) You or your wife or your father-in-law is a legend.

    6. Shipstontrev
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      What a legend you are Gnu !

    7. Gnu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      So you reckon the 2 GK transfer for a -8 is a sound move phew!

      Thought it was a bit too proffesional, I'm relieved.

      Thanks guys.x

    8. Gnu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      Wildcarded in 28 but still got 2 left fortunately.
      Ker-ching $$$$

  5. Wednesday1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 7 days ago

    Any thoughts?

    I’ve got 10 players for GW35 already.

    Should I use FH in GW34 for doubles and save my WC & BB for GW36 & 37 or use WC now but won’t have full team then for GW35

    Cheers

    1. The Hoff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      Depends on whether you still have a TC and how good your team is looking for next week.

      If you have a TC and team is looking poor next, WC now

    2. The Hoff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      (Am in similar boat- see post below-what would you do?)

      1. Wednesday1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        I don’t look too bad for next week, but got no spurs players which concerns me. I was thinking of TC Auba next week if he does ok tomorrow

        1. The Hoff
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          Surely TC someone who has a DGW ?

          1. Wednesday1
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 7 days ago

            Agreed, but if I FH34 and BB37 then I can’t use TC in either of those weeks

    3. semiconductor
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      Im in exactly same situation with 10 players for gw35 with at least 6-7 i want back. Thinking FH gw34 WC 36 BB37 and TC either 35 or 38

      1. Wednesday1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        That’s my thoughts too, just concerns me I can’t use TC in a double Gameweek if I don’t WC next week

        1. semiconductor
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          Yes. But maybe a SGW scores more. What do u think?

  6. The Hoff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 7 days ago

    Would you WC this lot?

    Pope / Begovic
    Alonso / Ota / VVD / Holgate / Fernandez
    Salah / Sterling / Shaqiri / Walcott / Van le Parra
    Auba / Firmino / mounie

    The alternative would be to FH GW34 and then just use transfers to deal with GW 35 (only 3 players + begovic + holgate not playing so far) but then I would have BB and TC and only one DGW to use them on.

    1. semiconductor
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      Same situation. My intial plan was to WC now but after realising I'm having 10 players for gw35 that i would want at least 7 back, I'm thinking to WC gw36

  7. Ógie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 7 days ago

    Joshua is going down in the 8th round

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      If he dies he dies.

  8. Toblerone52 - Zlatan Ibra-H…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 days ago

    Need funds for getting Lukaku in 34.
    Plan is to bank a transfer next week and do Wilson to Kaku but need to save at least 0.4 somewhere.. probably more like 0.6 with price rises.

    Where would you save the money in this team?
    Planning BB in 34, no FH chip

    DDG Adrian
    VVD Christensen Mee Dunk Morgan
    Salah Mahrez Kenedy Shaqiri Zaha
    Firmino Aubameyang LUKAKU

    Shaq or Zaha to Gudmundsson?
    downgrade Mee to Lowton?

    Any thoughts appreciated cheers

  9. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 7 days ago

    I have to bench my most expensive player next week.

    Please tell me I'm not mad to bench lukaku:

    Mahrez (NEW)
    Salah (eve)
    Mkhi (SOU)
    Willian (WHU)
    Gross (HUD)

    Auba (SOU)
    Vardy (eve)
    Lukaku (mic)

    1. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      *mci

    2. Business Cat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      ...how is Mahrez at home to Newcastle and Vardy away to Everton? 😉

      1. Shipstontrev
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Lol

    3. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      Bench Grosa

      1. Hybrid.power
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Gross even

    4. We Will Klopp you
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      I'd bench Gross

    5. MTPockets
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Gross

      • Scapegoat Salah
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Bench Willian. Play Kaku

    6. el polako
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      So I've read Marks Preamble today and have a bit of advice for those od you that still waiting for the first child.
      When your women goes into labour last thing you want to say is: "Darling I know it hurts, I know how it feels I've once WC'd during international break" - trust me you dont want to say it unless you dont mind having a black eye on the very first photo with your newborn.

        • 12 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        My goodness it was so melodramatic it was cringey.

      1. Pinky Blinders
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Best post I’ve read on here all season!

      2. Jimmers
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        A black eye and you'd be getting off easy!

      3. Naboo
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Anyone who says "your women" isn't ready to be a father

    7. Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      Ref is a total fraud in this fight.

      1. Epic Fail
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Dafuq is he playing at. Let them bang.

      2. UnitedFan
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Suiting AJ.

    8. Vamos
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      Feel like I can limp through 35 with my current side, and play my FH 34 instead to maximise the players I only really want for one week like De Gea, Lukaku and Hazard.

      https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/team/1965440/event/32

      Then Wildcard 36 to Bench Boost 37. Been hurt before by heavy rotation and teams giving up that late on, but it's probably the only tactic that'll see me win my league now as my rivals all Wildcards to the template this week.

        • 12 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Your team is better than most I've seen limping through I'll give you that.

        1. Vamos
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          Thanks. Cost me a few points along the way not being braver but hope it pays off. Probably get 3 injuries next week...

      1. Deulofail
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Yep looks good to me. Remember to use you FT this week

        1. Vamos
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          Absolutely. Thinking I'll bring in Son for sure, maybe do a -4 if I have to.

          1. Deulofail
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 7 days ago

            How about Auba? You can afford him

            Otherwise Son and Barnes?

            1. Deulofail
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 7 days ago

              Wait, Son does play in GW35...

              1. Deulofail
                • 10 Years
                8 years, 7 days ago

                Argh, doesn't*

              2. Vamos
                • 8 Years
                8 years, 7 days ago

                Nah he doesn't. Just concerned about that Spurs Stoke game. Reckon it could be brutal and would feel odd not covering it with Son or Kane. Good point though.

                Waiting on Auba to see how he does tomorrow. May turn my head or see a lot of knee jerk dropping tomorrow!

                1. Business Cat
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Bear in mind Auba has Southampton at home after this week.

                  That could be a turkey shoot and then some!

                  1. Vamos
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Yeah, very true. Watching him carefully tomorrow. Just annoying my league rival has him and Son, so getting either will only cover the points.

      2. semiconductor
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Same exact situation here

        1. semiconductor
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          Thinking to FH 34 WC36 BB37.

    9. HD7
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      GW 33 - right order of 11 and bench?

      Ryan
      Alonso Lowton Morgan
      Salah Mikhi Willian Mahrez
      Murray Vardy Auba

      Subs: De Gea, Gudm, Tark, Baily

      1. Epic Fail
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Yeah perfect. Green arrow on the way

        1. HD7
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          Not sure If I need to include one of United defence... they did get a clean sheet at Etihad last spring... but this year maybe not

    10. Hoos01
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 days ago

      Kane in matchday squad for Chelsea game according to Alasdair Gold on twitter. https://twitter.com/alasdairgold/status/980173869150560268

      1. Deulofail
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Cheers

        "I said a couple of weeks back that he always had this game in mind to return. That he's done it shows the man really is a machine."

        What absolute drivel! 😆

        1. Business Cat
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          A machine with weak ankle ligaments 🙂

      2. MTPockets
          8 years, 7 days ago

          Pretty modest that journo.

          1. Deulofail
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 7 days ago

            He's not going to score goals with his mouth so closed

            1. Business Cat
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 7 days ago

              ...and wearing one earring

        • Scapegoat Salah
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          On the bench then

      3. Rik Waller
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Referee is a pacifist

        1. Ógie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          Nice trick by AJs corner with the tape coming lose all the time and then the corrupt ref giving him a break

          1. Rik Waller
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 7 days ago

            Aj would've won any version of the fight. Ref was just crap

        2. Nascimento
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          Straightforward win for AJ. Ref wasnm't good but outcome was never in doubt.

        3. tisza
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          Poor fight. Always a give away sign when both fighters look pretty fresh after 12 rounds.
          Parker never looked like he believed he could win it. Joshua just boxing cautious.

          1. Rik Waller
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 7 days ago

            Yep ref didn't allow it to get scruffy at all. If you keep on breaking up fighters they'll resume back to a neutral stance, which doesn't allow much weakness in their defense. Ref killed the spectacle

            1. tisza
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 7 days ago

              Ref fussy but always difficult when there is a height difference and the smaller guy just wants to duck in and hold.
              Never convinced by Parker as a heavyweight. Fury fight was pretty poor as well.
              Fighting away you have to go for it and never looked like he was going to do that. Joshua going to outbox anyone that stands that far away from him.

      4. Sz21
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 7 days ago

        Eww~ 15k loss in rank.

        Was hoping to do better considering I played a WC and all..

        How many players do you have left this GW? 5 more and hoping they can turn things around a bit.

        1. Deulofail
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          Ewww??? Try 80k drop! 😆

        2. MTPockets
            8 years, 7 days ago

            35pts & 4, but without wc it would be even worse.

            1. joeydelucchi
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 7 days ago

              34 and 5 left too

        3. Metrics
          tm245
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 7 days ago

          Really interesting article, this analysis has added an intriguing dimension to the rank game, for sure.

          Am I the only one who feels that Big Data will bring a certain joylessness to FPL? Not even sure it resolves debates but instead leads us all towards a herd optimization mindset and a future with very little originality in it. Or do people use this information to personalize their approach? Just seems to present a massively comforting blanket of conformity to the audience.

          1. Epic Fail
            • 15 Years
            8 years, 7 days ago

            I don't even read articles like this to be honest.

          2. MTPockets
              8 years, 7 days ago

              I do miss just watching motd, the odd game and and logging in once a week to make transfers.
              Think I'll do that next season.

            • Ryan
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 14 Years
              8 years, 7 days ago

              It can't really say whats happening though. Many are planning to FH in GW34 which is a very different team from those who plan to FH in GW35. I have 3 City and 3 Arsenal for example.

              1. tm245
                • 14 Years
                8 years, 7 days ago

                Yeah, I see that point but I wonder if in more general terms the knowledge of what others have will help or hinder individual performance - the wisdom of crowds is an alluring concept that doesn't even have to be correct to impact people's decisionmaking.

                1. Ryan
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 14 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Its certainly interesting to see the perceived template as factually correct. Gives us knowledge on how to differentiate from the crowd.

                  1. tm245
                    • 14 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    True - looks like you're using it as a means to stay differentiated. Nice City midfield picks - I swerved them until 35.

                • 12 Years
                8 years, 7 days ago

                Good on ya Ryan, nice green today.

                1. Ryan
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 14 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Cheers, Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs still to play though so not getting too excited yet.

                    • 12 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Yep, just a solid 2-0 win for arsenal would be peachy. But even at home that can be wishful thinking this season.

            • Euro Raiders
              • 8 Years
              8 years, 7 days ago

              Don’t take any notice. Data like this is meaningless. Just a bunch of stats.

            • Business Cat
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 7 days ago

              There's unpredictability enough in the premier league to keep it interesting.

              You could probably use machine learning to make something to outperform 90% of human managers...but there's always gonna be people who'll outperform it.

              Like these automated stock trading algorithms. They do "alright"...but never spectularly well.

              1. tm245
                • 14 Years
                8 years, 7 days ago

                I think this site is an interesting case of how that 10% operated/might still operate -- when FPL was smaller five years ago it definitely felt like an inner sanctum or an exchange where knowledge of the game was traded by a group of successful veterans. Now that FPL has exploded and is a tougher nut to crack, all while FFS popularity has also boomed, I wonder if a public forum is still the place to be super successful.

                Before data scraping on FPL ownership, and now the analysis of it, the discussion was about the football itself and how to make picks based on the game on the field. Now much of it is either consciously or subconsciously influenced by what moves others are doing, on a much larger scale.

                1. MTPockets
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    That sums up a large part of why I like the Norwegian game. It's new, have to watch some football to gauge things, stats are available but limited, no fplstatistics. Discussion more about the teams, positions, games and outlook than own picks. Plus a huge amount of randomness to make it harder.

                  • Ryan
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 14 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    There is more skill required now to break the top 10k. You do have to be different from the crowd and be ahead of the game. You can no longer sleepwalk into the top 10k by following the FFS template.

                      • 12 Years
                      8 years, 7 days ago

                      Agreed you've got to play that higher variance game. There's about 100k good, serious managers by my reckoning nowadays. Getting in that upper 10% needs getting ahead of the curve and a bit of luck. But not too punty or you end up like Ogie.

                      1. Ryan
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • Has Moderation Rights
                        • 14 Years
                        8 years, 7 days ago

                        Yeah its got to be calculated. Can't go wrong with triple City when everyone else has got rid.

                    1. MTPockets
                        8 years, 7 days ago

                        I'd say it's increasingly the other way around, on average. As increasing numbers chase the same squad (generally an analysed and performing squad) being different can more quickly backfire.

                        In previous seasons there was was greater variety across teams, so simpler to stick to something different and ride out ups/downs. But if most active players have the same core picks that's tougher to maintain.

                        Not to say one can't be individual and better though. Just that the psychology has changed.

                        1. Ryan
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • Has Moderation Rights
                          • 14 Years
                          8 years, 7 days ago

                          Absolutely it can backfire. Therein lyes the risk.

                          1. Ryan
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • Has Moderation Rights
                            • 14 Years
                            8 years, 7 days ago

                            If top 10k is the target though then those risks need to be taken at the appropriate time.

                            1. MTPockets
                                8 years, 7 days ago

                                True. Meant more in terms of asymmetries when taking those risks. Winning isn't really about being right all the time (just luck and can't compete with that) but being right more often than wrong. Can be either through better info than everyone else (unlikely) or better analysis of risk/reward to find asymmetries (smaller downside than upside).

                                When a better than historical average template is being chased, or eg. Salah has EO of 150% that makes a big difference to the cost of being wrong vs being right.

                                1. Ryan
                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                  • Has Moderation Rights
                                  • 14 Years
                                  8 years, 7 days ago

                                  "better analysis of risk/reward to find asymmetries (smaller downside than upside)".

                                  This quote sums it up well. I suppose you could say that selling Salah is a bad move and getting a couple of City midfielders when they are differentials is a good move.

                  • WesMantooth
                    • 15 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    I believe most use data to assess risk. The pool of players is probably the same. But knowing ownership amongst the top managers makes it easier to asses your own ideas and preferances and maybe find a middleground.

                  • tisza
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 11 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Clubs invest a fortune in data & stats. So hardly pointless.

                    PL results generally follow the data patterns but individual performances always have the human element. But over a period of games data usually a strong indicator.

                    1. Deulofail
                      • 10 Years
                      8 years, 7 days ago

                      The article isn't about that kind of data

                  • Deulofail
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    If people want to make decisions based on ownership and what everyone else is doing, I see it as an advantage for me, since I think it shrouds people's judgements.

                    For me, this article is more about painting a story of what's happened and might happen. The game is more fun in the context of your competitors, after all. I wouldn't use the information here to make decisions.

                    My only issue with it is that, with time, this could push the ownership meme into the forefront of FFS discourse, and I don't fancy reading, "ownership" as a take-down argument in every other post. 😆

                    1. tm245
                      • 14 Years
                      8 years, 7 days ago

                      That last paragraph is a very good point - I spend most of my time here during the matches so I am maybe exposed to a disproportionate amount of ownership talk, but I do think it probably impacts FFS decisionmaking on some level more than we are conscious of.

                    • 12 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    As with all articles here, you overestimate it's reach & it's barely more than what SmartyPants has been posting for years.

                    1. tm245
                      • 14 Years
                      8 years, 7 days ago

                      Yeah, it is certainly the byproduct of the FPLDiscovery approach, though SmartyPants' numbers only approach is actually a bit refreshing.

                      And yes, I will always dramatize Big Data's ability to reach us - I think I must have really been impacted by SkyNet and the apocalyptic sci-fi genre.

                    • 12 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    And the rank game has so much luck anyway. The top 1k has a 2% retention rate year to year. Suggesting 50k managers have the ability to reach 1k in a good year only most of them won't ostensibly due to luck.

                    1. Euro Raiders
                      • 8 Years
                      8 years, 7 days ago

                      The luck element is significant combined with the limitation on team player changes. The clever bit is the ability to select and maintain a team of consistency in getting points. Team value and strategy has a role. Past stats are useless.

                  • tm245
                    • 14 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Nice discussion, thanks for all the thoughtful replies.

                  • minges
                    • 14 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Info like this is great if you like to reflect on where your team is at compared to others. Not sure about making the game stale... Metrics like this can only be used on past information, things that already happened. It doesn't tell you what others are doing right now or next week.
                    If you use these metrics to base your team around, you're basically going to be a week behind everyone else. So those who can think for themselves will always have a potential advantage

                    1. Ryan
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • Has Moderation Rights
                      • 14 Years
                      8 years, 7 days ago

                      Teams can't change a lot week to week though. We know that most teams consist of these players in the top 100k now. So we can identify who the differentials are and can keep those guys and add too it.

                  • Naboo
                    • 13 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    6 million teams with 15 players can hardly be called 'big data'

                    1. Naboo
                      • 13 Years
                      8 years, 7 days ago

                      Maybe in 1996

                  • Ragabolly
                    • 16 Years
                    8 years, 6 days ago

                    I just noticed this hot topic and thought I would share my views.

                    FPL is a game that is only exciting when you are competing against someone, otherwise points are meaningless. If you score a 100 but lose your ML lead, then 100 was bad. Don’t you check your main rivals’ teams and captain choices every week? That’s exactly how I view such metrics and why I became interested in them. Especially if you have a high rank, looking at the 10k or 100k average stats is exactly like checking your rivals’ teams in a ML.
                    You don’t check your rivals to copy them, but to know what you are up against and then you can make more informed decisions to differentiate yourself.

                    I agree that enjoying football and going with your gut is a fun approach. Nothing here suggests the opposite. But still there are FPL strategies that are you can’t deduce from the pitch. Like when to use your chips and how to navigate DGWs. Knowing how your rivals are thinking helps you judge your situation.

                    In summary, it’s just one way to look at your competitors and it makes the game exciting, just what rivalry always adds. What you decide after you look at your rivals’ teams is totally up to you, but at least you know where you stand.

                2. MarkoSD
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Rough: My boy on the picture above, schelotto, cs fail
                  Rougher: morgan barns on the bench

                3. CloudSky
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Antonio Conte on his Chelsea future: “I don’t know. I must be honest. I don’t know. This is not my problem. It’s a problem for the club. It’s not my problem." #CFC

                  Not my problem? Daft statement.

                  Also:

                  Bayern CEO on Thomas Tuchel: "He told us he's signed with another club."

                  1. Tiki-Taka
                    • 15 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Everything he's said pretty much from the season start suggests he really doesn't care what happens with his Chelsea future/straight up wants to leave. Don't blame him tbh because he's clearly a talented manager and appears not being given the freedom you'd argue he deserves

                  2. Dr Van Nostrand
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Actually its daft to think his statement is daft. He's spot on he's leaving in 6 weeks so not his circus not his monkeys.

                4. Scapegoat Salah
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Really need both Davies and Moses to at least get minutes tomorrow otherwise rival gets Milivojevic off the bench!

                5. Clintymints
                  • 16 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Decent performance today but still can't get near the casuals in my mini league

                  Wood off the bench for JWP for one of them is the best of the lot

                6. OldBenKenobi
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Enough money ITB to do Firmino > Kane (if fit)

                  Surely a no brainer?

                  1. Scapegoat Salah
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Think I'm making the same move. Hoping Kane does down first though

                  2. Tiki-Taka
                    • 15 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    I'd say so

                  3. Epic Fail
                    • 15 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    I'd do it, but it's not a no brainer otherwise you wouldn't need to ask.

                    1. OldBenKenobi
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 7 days ago

                      True

                7. Hansel
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 15 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Pickford Adrian

                  VDV Alonso Bavies Schindler Long

                  Salah Mahrez Sterling Shaqiri Stanislas

                  Auba Wilson Firmino

                  All chips left, 1m ITB.

                  Do I play WC or use my chips in another way?

                8. OldBenKenobi
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  I just can’t find the opportunity to get rid of Wilson 😆

                  1. Hart-ake
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Get rid for 34!

                    1. OldBenKenobi
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 7 days ago

                      But that’s 4 points he gets me that week. Thats DOUBLE the normal amount 😉

                9. England23
                  • 8 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Pick one from each

                  Groß or Wood

                  DDG or Pope?

                  1. Nascimento
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Grob

                    DDG

                  2. Volley127
                    • 13 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Wood

                    Ddg

                10. OldBenKenobi
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Barnes’ goal was a peach!

                  1. Nascimento
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Was OK

                11. Hart-ake
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Foster to go down tonight?

                  1. Nascimento
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    If his Mrs was my Mrs, I would.

                  2. Epic Fail
                    • 15 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    You into voyeurism?

                12. LǝgleSs e|even
                  • 10 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Sell Firmino?
                  Any better options..?

                  1. Epic Fail
                    • 15 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Yep.. Plenty.
                    Lukaku, Kane, Vardy.

                  2. Hazz
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Only if you have to. Obvious choices are Vardy & -perhaps- Barnes (unless you're upgrading).

                  3. The Mandalorian
                    • 13 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    The Vardinator

                  4. dunas_dog
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    If you have no free hit definitely no. If you do Vardy an option although I am looking to get Kane and go Kane Auba up front with Barnes

                    1. LǝgleSs e|even
                      • 10 Years
                      8 years, 7 days ago

                      Thanks. all chips still available. Barnes or Wood?

                13. Hazz
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  Early doors. Who to play in GW33?
                  A) Lowton (WAT)
                  B) Morgan (NEW)
                  C) Van der Hoorn (WBA)

                  1. Ask Yourself
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    BAC

                  2. Hart-ake
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Morgan.

                  3. dunas_dog
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Morgan then Lowton then VDH

                  4. Hazz
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 7 days ago

                    Thanks guys 🙂

                14. Hazz
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  8 years, 7 days ago

                  666 Players who joined after Gameweek 1 are ahead of me. Devilish.