Metrics
7 April 2018 2516 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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After a disappointing and low-scoring start to the Gameweek, it’s time to lose ourselves in a dose of metrics with the focus on the latest rash of Wildcards.

But first I would like to start this article with a few thoughts on the purpose of these pieces and the data they expose.

There was a recent Hot Topic discussing the use of metrics and statistics to analyse the moves of top managers, and I wanted to add a few points to the discussion.

For me, every time the game updates after the deadline, one of the first things I do is to scan my rivals’ squads to learn who they brought in, who they captained and if they used any chips.

It’s a common practice, and I believe that there are two main reasons why we look at competitors in this way.

Firstly, competition is a big part of why Fantasy games are so compelling and addictive.

Knowing what I am up against before the matches kick off gives me another perspective during the moments of triumph and frustration that occur throughout the Gameweek.

Secondly, a view on the moves and decisions of the teams around me can help decide my own planning. It can give me more information about what differentiates my squad from rival managers.

I don’t mine this information to copy their teams, in fact, most of the time, it means the very opposite.

I use it to look for strategies that I could only identify after knowing exactly what I’m up against. Metrics allow me to build a picture of behaviour and decisions around me and I use that to shape my own strategy.

Your rivals are not just mini-league managers; we’re competing against every active team.

Looking at ownership of players, templates of Wildcards and captain picks mirrors how we check on our friend’s teams in mini-leagues, but on a larger scale.

It provides the fun and anticipation during the actual games and could also help decide on a strategy to beat the average and inform on risk and reward when considering transfers.

Some managers claim that ownership data is useless, and while picking a player just because he is highly owned is not a strategy that I endorse, it’s not the metrics that are behind such a tactic. They just provide extra information that each manager can use in their own way.

As an example, while I happily invest a good amount of time creating and looking at metrics, I avoided Romelu Lukaku on my Wildcard plan, despite knowing that he has a relatively high ownership and would be a probable captain in Gameweek 34.

Instead, I went for a differential strategy of tripling up on the Manchester United defence, which is against the established template.

However, paying attention to metrics has helped me articulate my plans this season and has assisted in my first ever top 10k rank placing, which, fingers crossed, I now hope to maintain.

So, metrics are just like any other statistics. They are a way of organising a look at manager behaviour in the past to help us plan for the future, using our own methods and thinking.

That being said, now let’s look at this Gameweek 33’s statistics.

Once again the Wildcard chip proved very popular as managers bid to prepare for the Double Gameweek 34. Overall some 93858 Wildcards were played.

We have seen that last week 21.53% of the top 10k managers (and 15.87% of the top 100k) chose to activate the chip.

This week, we have a smaller crowd with 11.03% of the top 10k putting the chip in play, as part of 9.79% in the top 100k .

That raises the total percentage of second Wildcards used in the top 10k and top 100k to 75.07% and 71.02% respectively.

So there are still a quarter of the top managers who have kept their Wildcard for the later stages of the season.

members

Many factors have changed since last week, and the managers who delayed the refresh certainly had more information at hand.

Mohamed Salah’s injury scare and the speedy return of his Golden Boot rival Harry Kane are two very important shifts in the landscape that occurred since Gameweek 32.

So, let’s look at how the most selected Wildcard team has changed.

members
members

There are some notable differences between the two teams.

Salah is only selected by 43.25% of the Wildcards as opposed to 99.5% of last week’s chips.

Many Gameweek 33 Wildcarders dropped him and opted for Kane instead; indeed a hefty 77.2% chose this route.

Salah’s lower percentage seems to be balanced by a surge of interest in Jesse Lingard (43.6%) who is the enabler to fund the Kane move.

Meanwhile, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy both make their way out of the template Wildcard team so that Kane could come in.

This leads to a higher ownership for Ashley Barnes (55.8%), which is also a knock-on for his stunning goal at The Hawthorns – his fourth in four Gameweeks.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most chosen forward claiming 77.8% of Wildcards, with a probable planned shift to either Kane or Lukaku to come ahead of Double Gameweek 34.

While the goalkeeping positions remain settled for David de Gea and Matthew Ryan, the defence sees a drastic change.

The main difference is that new Wildcarders have decided to ignore Manchester United backline. The unexpected benching of Eric Bailly in Gameweek 32, along with the return of Phil Jones, threatens the starting role of Chris Smalling and has proved a major deterrent.

Some 60.2% of managers opted for Ben Chilwell as they cheap route into Leicester’s defence, though the template doubles up here to also include their skipper Wes Morgan.

Along with Burnley’s Matthew Lowton and James Tarkowski, that Leicester pair clearly proved vital for freeing cash for the potential swap from Aubameyang to Kane and Lukaku.

Finally, the Andrew Robertson pick of Gameweek 32 Wildcard is replaced by Chelsea’s Andreas Christensen who is perhaps seen as more assured a week later. Marcos Alonso is therefore omitted to save funds for the expensive frontline.

So, the strategy prefered by Gameweek 33 Wildcarders is to double up on cheap defenders of Burnley and Leicester to splash the cash elsewhere.

Now, let’s delve deeper by looking at the club breakdown.

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We see that Spurs assets showed a significant boost in selection this week, with confidence in Kane, Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli booming ahead of their Double Gameweek 34.

Meanwhile, interest in Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal has declined.

Moving on to this week selection statistics, it’s Aubameyang who is most captained in the top 100k managers, with 41.1% of the managers now waiting on his potential haul against Southampton on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the 18% who captained Kane will be bitterly frustrated at the Match Centre decision to hand Christian Eriksen’s Spurs’ second goal earlier today.

members



The ownership of Salah dropped this week to 83.11% (started by 72.8%) in the top 100k and 81.7% (started by 71.2%) in the top 10k, compared to around 99.5% last week.

With his possible return for the Champions League on Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if Salah sales continue.

Finally, we present the team with players with the highest effective ownership – which is the regular ownership plus captaincy – in the top 100k.

members

Many of the players in this line-up have already failed to produce today, like Firmino, Kane, Heung-min Son, Riyad Mahrez and De Gea. Others failed to even feature such as Salah, Robertson, Rob Elliot and Ben Davies.

That all points to where we started this article: this looks destined to be a low scoring Gameweek for many.

  1. Stokelona
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    On freehit, would you prefer?

    A) Alonso and Mahrez
    Or
    B) Maguire and Hazard

    1. walkman666
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      A

    2. WVA
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Tough wait and see tomo but A atm

    3. FPL Scoop
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      a

    4. WesMantooth
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      lonzo haz and mahrez

    5. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      A

    6. mojoindojo
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      A

  2. WVA
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Hegazi Robertson Salah Firmino > Lowton Maguire Eriksen Lukaku -8?

    BB34

    DDG Pickford
    ALONSO MAGUIRE AKE LOWTON Schindler
    ERIKSEN ALLI GROB Doucoure Mili
    LUKAKU(C) VARD Auba

    1. FPL Scoop
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      sure

  3. FPL Scoop
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    A) Gross -> Lingard
    B) Gross + Ota -> Lingard + Christensen
    C) Gross + Ota -> Pogba +
    D) Other moves (team linked in profile) and here: https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/191148/history

    No responses before^

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Let Chelsea play 1st.

  4. andy85wsm
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Sanchez (c) ?

    1. FPL Scoop
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      BET

    2. Rash
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Would you lose salah for Sanchez?

    3. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      TC

    4. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Yes for me

    5. Queens of the South Age
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      That's what I'm on. Got him in on WC in 32 and done enough to convince me.

    6. mojoindojo
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Aye

  5. Rainer
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    MOTD saying Mahrez should have won a pen but it wasn't given...

    Any chance another Vardy goal can be added to FPL along with a Mahrez assist?

    1. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      I think he gets it if he claims it

    2. Cookie Kid
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      That’s fine by me. If we can include Smalling bench points too... 🙂

  6. FPL Maldini
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    What would you do with Ibe?

    Any chance he will back into the Bournemouth squad?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Wait for presser.

    2. walkman666
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Apparently he was ill, so I’d sit tight. I own him, too.

    3. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Apparently he's just ill, so might be ok.

      1. FPL Maldini
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Thanks guys. Should be back then

  7. Whats the Huth
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Cant stretch to Alonso. But how does this look instead?

    Lloris
    Smalling. Morgan. Lowton. AZPI
    Albrighton. Eriksen. Sanchez.
    Kane. Vardy. Lukaku.

    or

    Lloris
    Smalling. Morgan. Lowton
    Albrighton. Eriksen. Sanchez. WILLIAN
    Kane. Vardy. Lukaku

    1. mojoindojo
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      B

      1. Whats the Huth
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        I'm leaning towards A for some reason haha

  8. Alex1111345
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    A) Christensen
    Or
    B) Vertonghen

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      I prefer B

  9. mojoindojo
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Almost locked in with this FH team. Hows it looking?

    DDG
    Alonso Christensen Chilwell
    Sanchez Eriksen Pogba Willian Albrighton
    Kane Vardy

    3.9 Long DCL Mariappa

    0.5 ITB

    1. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      I like it.

      Lukaku?

      1. mojoindojo
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Its either Sanchez or him. cant afford both without downgrading elsewhere

        1. Whats the Huth
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 5 days ago

          Downgrade Alonso or Willian IMO.

          Both same price

          1. mojoindojo
            • 12 Years
            8 years, 5 days ago

            Only gives me 4.8 for 4th Mid....

            1. Whats the Huth
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 5 days ago

              Cork

  10. Bouncebackability
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    That's Kane's goal.

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      😆

    2. Gnu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Haven't seen it yet - but it's clearly not 😆

    3. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      But FPL says 1 point so how can it be

    4. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      It brushed him. It didn't change the direction of the ball

      1. Cookie Kid
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        I’m a non-Kane owner and I think it did brush his shoulder

      2. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Didn’t realise the ball had to change direction. Thanks

    5. Bouncebackability
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      That ball ever so slightly changed its course. Can't believe they didn't give it to him given past decisions.

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Spot on. No consistency after Aguero and Lukaku goals recently

        1. Bouncebackability
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 5 days ago

          That's all we ask for. Bit of a joke given the 'slight' touch goals of the past as you mention.

          I have Eriksen as it happens, so the silver lining, but that's not the point.

  11. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    If you have TC and BB left and don't use one in 34 when is a good week besides 37 to use one?
    I guess my question is basically have you almost got to use one of the chips in 34?

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Might as well

  12. Twisted Saltergater
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Quick one lads:

    a) Walcott + Wilson > Pogba + Barnes (-4)
    b) Walcott + Wilson + Vardy > Milivoyevic + Barnes + Lukaku (-8)
    c) anything else?

    Exact funds for both but will wait at least until tomorrow.

  13. Rainer
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    How didn't Barnes score?!?! 😮

    1. Totalfootball
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Which moment ?

  14. JurgenRodgers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    2 FTs (No FH)

    Using 1 Lingard to Groß

    Ignoring Kane

    Lukaku (C)

    10 Dgws BB Salah Aubameyang Mustafi Hennessey

  15. Babit1967
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Guys how are we looking for next gameweek

    Benchboost

    Ddg Ryan

    Alonso Lascelles Chilwell Lowton Morgan

    Mahrez Eriksen Son Willian Gundmonsen

    Kane (C) Lukaku TrollMurray

  16. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Foster
    Baines Ake Alonso
    Walcott Shaqiri Eriksen Hazard
    Aubamayang Deeney Lukaku (c)

    Elliot VLP TAA Schindler

    Which option is better please for next week? Have exact funds for all

    A Elliot, VLP & Aubamayang > Ryan, Lingard & Vardy
    B Baines, Deeney & Aubamayang > Lowton, Barnes & Kane
    C Baines, VLP & Aubamayang > Lowton, Pogba & Vardy
    D Baines, Walcott & Aubamayang > Tarkowski, Lingard & Kane

  17. Twisted Saltergater
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Impressed with Dyche sticking by Pope. Excellent man management.

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      He’s been so impressive pope. Don’t think he’s made one mistake leading to a goal all season

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Yet the media are obsessed with Pickford and Butland!

        I think Pickford will get the nod, actually, but Pope's been superb.

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 5 days ago

          Don’t rate Pickford and really like Butland but his form has been awful this season

          1. Twisted Saltergater
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            8 years, 5 days ago

            I agree, Butland has made some strange decisions this season. At times I think he may believe his own hype.

    2. Bouncebackability
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      He'd be in goal for me.

      Not sold on Butland and Pickford positioning regularly questionable and doesn't go through others at corners.

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        True. Watched Pickford today and he's energetic and vocal but I wouldn't say a calming influence on his defence and I wonder if poor positioning means he has to pull off better looking saves?

  18. Davido989
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Been at 11k for a while. Please Aubameyang, turn up.

    1. WVA
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      This, been stuck at 5k since Christmas, Auba (c)

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Been stuck at #2 for a while now. Need to make a captain punt.

  19. Scapegoat Salah
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Predictions on which will score more tomorrow?

    Moses and Willian
    Or
    Aubemayang

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      B

      1. Scapegoat Salah
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Correct answer! (I hope lol)

    2. el polako
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Auba. Hattrick incoming.

      1. Scapegoat Salah
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        I'll set myself if that happens

        1. Scapegoat Salah
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 5 days ago

          *wet

  20. el polako
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Is Gundogan new Zidane ?

  21. Klaren
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    FH Team:

    DDG
    Alonso Lowton Morgan
    Hazard Sanchez Pogba Willian
    Vardy Kane Barnes

    Any suggestions?

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Lukaku?

      1. Klaren
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        I'm actually between Mahrez & Lukaku or Vardy & Sanchez, but I just can't see Lukaku scoring more than 1 each game. Still undecided though.

  22. theodosios
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    13pts from 7 players...I haven't seen this for years...

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      I played my wc and I’m on 12!

      1. theodosios
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Season based on a pure luck

    2. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      WC and on 15 from 8. Need Auba(c) to fire again

  23. mrwinner
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Aubameyang > Lukaku for free make sense? Or take hit to bring in Kane?

  24. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    If distracting the keeper so they misread the ball is enough to count as a goal, then that was Kane's all day.

    1. Rash
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Enough for an assist perhaps?

    2. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      So if Dave behind the goal throws a lighter at Butland and it distracts him does he get the goal?

      1. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Of course

  25. andy85wsm
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    After Harry Kane's terrible performance today of first claiming Eriksen's goal on the pitch and then carrying on the facade on Twitter I can never let him come near my team again.

    All in a petty attempt to overtake the king of Egypt.

    Down with Harry Kane, the outright liar. Long live the goal king Salah.

    1. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Kane should be banned for bringing the game into disrepute!

    2. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      😀

    3. walkman666
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Ironic, isn’t it?

    4. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Salah has suddenly become a differential in my ML... thanks to the GW33 wildcarders. Couldn't ask for a better differential to captain!

    5. TAT
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Thumbs up! It's incredible, would be furious if I were Eriksen.

  26. Pigeon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    If I have no FH is it wise to sell after gameweek gw35 or get rid now?

    1. Pigeon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      ****Sell Salah****

      1. theodosios
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Beside Auba, I don't see any other captain choice then Mo...for us without FH

    2. Rash
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Probs wise to wait and see for more info

    3. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Keep him all season not an option

  27. Jam0sh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Which one you'd prefer:

    A) Lukaku
    B) Sanchez (lose Salah)

    1. Pigeon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      I would love to get both at the expense of Alonso

  28. the snazzy viking
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    A) Salah, Auba, Son ➡ Sánchez, Kane, Mili (-4)
    B) Salah, Auba, Dummett ➡ Pogba, Kane, Tarkowski (-4)
    C) Auba, Son, Dummett ➡ Lingard, Kane, Tarkowski (-4)

    The team:

    DDG Ryan
    Alonso Morgan Lowton Mariappa Dummett
    Hazard Salah Mahrez Son Kenedy
    Auba Vardy Barnes
    -
    2FT, 0.5 ITB

    Cheers 🙂

  29. the snazzy viking
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Those two goals in the Brighton Huddersfield match...

    almost like FIFA scripting in real life

  30. Davido989
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Harry Kane is proving today he's a greedy, lying git.