Metrics
7 April 2018 2516 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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After a disappointing and low-scoring start to the Gameweek, it’s time to lose ourselves in a dose of metrics with the focus on the latest rash of Wildcards.

But first I would like to start this article with a few thoughts on the purpose of these pieces and the data they expose.

There was a recent Hot Topic discussing the use of metrics and statistics to analyse the moves of top managers, and I wanted to add a few points to the discussion.

For me, every time the game updates after the deadline, one of the first things I do is to scan my rivals’ squads to learn who they brought in, who they captained and if they used any chips.

It’s a common practice, and I believe that there are two main reasons why we look at competitors in this way.

Firstly, competition is a big part of why Fantasy games are so compelling and addictive.

Knowing what I am up against before the matches kick off gives me another perspective during the moments of triumph and frustration that occur throughout the Gameweek.

Secondly, a view on the moves and decisions of the teams around me can help decide my own planning. It can give me more information about what differentiates my squad from rival managers.

I don’t mine this information to copy their teams, in fact, most of the time, it means the very opposite.

I use it to look for strategies that I could only identify after knowing exactly what I’m up against. Metrics allow me to build a picture of behaviour and decisions around me and I use that to shape my own strategy.

Your rivals are not just mini-league managers; we’re competing against every active team.

Looking at ownership of players, templates of Wildcards and captain picks mirrors how we check on our friend’s teams in mini-leagues, but on a larger scale.

It provides the fun and anticipation during the actual games and could also help decide on a strategy to beat the average and inform on risk and reward when considering transfers.

Some managers claim that ownership data is useless, and while picking a player just because he is highly owned is not a strategy that I endorse, it’s not the metrics that are behind such a tactic. They just provide extra information that each manager can use in their own way.

As an example, while I happily invest a good amount of time creating and looking at metrics, I avoided Romelu Lukaku on my Wildcard plan, despite knowing that he has a relatively high ownership and would be a probable captain in Gameweek 34.

Instead, I went for a differential strategy of tripling up on the Manchester United defence, which is against the established template.

However, paying attention to metrics has helped me articulate my plans this season and has assisted in my first ever top 10k rank placing, which, fingers crossed, I now hope to maintain.

So, metrics are just like any other statistics. They are a way of organising a look at manager behaviour in the past to help us plan for the future, using our own methods and thinking.

That being said, now let’s look at this Gameweek 33’s statistics.

Once again the Wildcard chip proved very popular as managers bid to prepare for the Double Gameweek 34. Overall some 93858 Wildcards were played.

We have seen that last week 21.53% of the top 10k managers (and 15.87% of the top 100k) chose to activate the chip.

This week, we have a smaller crowd with 11.03% of the top 10k putting the chip in play, as part of 9.79% in the top 100k .

That raises the total percentage of second Wildcards used in the top 10k and top 100k to 75.07% and 71.02% respectively.

So there are still a quarter of the top managers who have kept their Wildcard for the later stages of the season.

members

Many factors have changed since last week, and the managers who delayed the refresh certainly had more information at hand.

Mohamed Salah’s injury scare and the speedy return of his Golden Boot rival Harry Kane are two very important shifts in the landscape that occurred since Gameweek 32.

So, let’s look at how the most selected Wildcard team has changed.

members
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There are some notable differences between the two teams.

Salah is only selected by 43.25% of the Wildcards as opposed to 99.5% of last week’s chips.

Many Gameweek 33 Wildcarders dropped him and opted for Kane instead; indeed a hefty 77.2% chose this route.

Salah’s lower percentage seems to be balanced by a surge of interest in Jesse Lingard (43.6%) who is the enabler to fund the Kane move.

Meanwhile, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy both make their way out of the template Wildcard team so that Kane could come in.

This leads to a higher ownership for Ashley Barnes (55.8%), which is also a knock-on for his stunning goal at The Hawthorns – his fourth in four Gameweeks.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most chosen forward claiming 77.8% of Wildcards, with a probable planned shift to either Kane or Lukaku to come ahead of Double Gameweek 34.

While the goalkeeping positions remain settled for David de Gea and Matthew Ryan, the defence sees a drastic change.

The main difference is that new Wildcarders have decided to ignore Manchester United backline. The unexpected benching of Eric Bailly in Gameweek 32, along with the return of Phil Jones, threatens the starting role of Chris Smalling and has proved a major deterrent.

Some 60.2% of managers opted for Ben Chilwell as they cheap route into Leicester’s defence, though the template doubles up here to also include their skipper Wes Morgan.

Along with Burnley’s Matthew Lowton and James Tarkowski, that Leicester pair clearly proved vital for freeing cash for the potential swap from Aubameyang to Kane and Lukaku.

Finally, the Andrew Robertson pick of Gameweek 32 Wildcard is replaced by Chelsea’s Andreas Christensen who is perhaps seen as more assured a week later. Marcos Alonso is therefore omitted to save funds for the expensive frontline.

So, the strategy prefered by Gameweek 33 Wildcarders is to double up on cheap defenders of Burnley and Leicester to splash the cash elsewhere.

Now, let’s delve deeper by looking at the club breakdown.

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We see that Spurs assets showed a significant boost in selection this week, with confidence in Kane, Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli booming ahead of their Double Gameweek 34.

Meanwhile, interest in Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal has declined.

Moving on to this week selection statistics, it’s Aubameyang who is most captained in the top 100k managers, with 41.1% of the managers now waiting on his potential haul against Southampton on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the 18% who captained Kane will be bitterly frustrated at the Match Centre decision to hand Christian Eriksen’s Spurs’ second goal earlier today.

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The ownership of Salah dropped this week to 83.11% (started by 72.8%) in the top 100k and 81.7% (started by 71.2%) in the top 10k, compared to around 99.5% last week.

With his possible return for the Champions League on Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if Salah sales continue.

Finally, we present the team with players with the highest effective ownership – which is the regular ownership plus captaincy – in the top 100k.

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Many of the players in this line-up have already failed to produce today, like Firmino, Kane, Heung-min Son, Riyad Mahrez and De Gea. Others failed to even feature such as Salah, Robertson, Rob Elliot and Ben Davies.

That all points to where we started this article: this looks destined to be a low scoring Gameweek for many.

  1. Bobby
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    that surely must count as one of the worst gameweeks so far...nothing good has happened

    1. Bobby
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      apologies that was a bit depressing to be top of the page

    2. Stats Don\'t Lie
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Imagine having eriksen captain, sanchez and vardy...

    3. Bunk Moreland
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I thought those Sanchez points were pretty neat. Oh, and Eriksen getting that goal back from Kane was a beauty.
      Not to mention King netting off the bench.
      Lots of good stuff actually 😀

  2. james 101
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Any of you had a go at a free hit team for 35 yet?

    1. Legomané
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Yup, pretty easy to load up on triple City and Iverpool attack, with Auba if desired...no Kane/Alonso etc releases a lot of funds

      1. james 101
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Looking forward to these last few game weeks (and seeing the back of this one..)

    2. james 101
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Do we have a template yet?

    3. Stats Don\'t Lie
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Too much choice in midfield :/

      1. james 101
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Agreed

        Power 5?

  3. HD7
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Tom Carroll is attacking midf and Andy King is the defensive one, yes?
    I need to pick one of them as bench fodder

    1. El-Kloppico
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Both DM

  4. Fuchs Mane Kante
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Got 13 doublers.

    Benching Lowton And Long.

    FH massive.

  5. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Feeling chuffed for bringing Sanchez in!!! Two assists and a hand in the other goal too!! With double game week to come with great fixtures, will also have Kane in my team for them too..... would it be wrong to captain him over Kane????

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I would go for Sanchez with those fixtures

      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Yeah logic would suggest it it’s just the Kane factor that’s causing the hesitation....

  6. Lucky Z
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Which combo on FH?

    A. Valencia Christensen Alexis
    B. Smalling Lingard Kane

    1. Vamos
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Hard to know without seeing the rest of your side, but I'd favour A if you have Erikssen or Alli

      1. Lucky Z
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        With Alli, yes. Thanks.

  7. Tronity
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Thoughts on Salah and Aubameyang > Eriksen and Lukaku with 2FTs (means no Kane though as already have Son and Vert)?

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Wait on Salah news. Have you got FH?

      1. Tronity
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Yep, plan to use it in 35.

  8. Pat Bonner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Was feeling pretty smug looking at rivals team compared to my amazing wildcard team! I’m on 12 and they’ve got 38

    1. Colonel Shoe 肝池
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      my gw32 wc has been an abject failure

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Mili is killing me

    2. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I know how you feel.

  9. mir
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Kane going up again tonight?

    1. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      looks like it! I wouldn't gamble on him not

  10. Rik Waller
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    That City loss good for Free Hit 35 managers?

    Reduces chances of rotation, if they haven't wrapped up the title yet

    1. Clintymints
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Yup need the league wrapped up before (possible) cl game

  11. Clintymints
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    60-70 points off the leader in the mini... Reckon I drop Salah and Aubam? Totally against it but the gap is huge

    DdG Ryan
    Alonso Mustafi Robertson Morgan Lowton
    Sanchez Son Mahrez Willian Gudmundsson
    Vardy Kane Barnes.

    Actually looks so good for bb 34

    Need must, right?

  12. Ronnies
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Hi Guys,

    Which is the best pick .. a or b ?

    a) mustafi & auba > tarky & kane

    b) mustafi & auba > smalling & lukaku

    Tnks.

  13. Flynny
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Sorry....bottomed.....Any early views on the following plan? Bb34

    Auba salah and son to kane sanchez and 6m (maybe lingard) - 4

    Ddg ryan
    Alonso verthongen tarko lowton morgan
    Salah mahrez son willian gros
    Auba vardy barnes

    Thanks

  14. Delph & Safety
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    It’s the GW’s that you expect to do well are the worst.

    1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      it’s the hope that kills you in FPL

  15. TLF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    ML leader gained a further 26 points on me today via Mili off his bench and Vardy captaincy.

    I have Alonso, Iwobi and Aubameyang (C) left to play. Feeling reasonably confident it could happen.

  16. arndff_
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    (???) Son, Auba > Lingard, Kane (0.1M ITB left)

    DDG Ryan
    Alonso Mustafi Stephens Morgan Lowton
    Salah Mahrez Son* Willian Gross
    Lukaku Auba* Barnes

    2FT, 0.0M ITB
    BB34, FH35, TC37

  17. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    how’s this team looking for next week?

    DDG
    lowton Morgan Christensen
    mahrez son salah willian
    Vardy firmino lukaku(TC)

    Fab // kenedy mustafi dummett

    saving a FT for gw35 (no FH)
    plan to BB37

    any signs of salah/bobby being rested could change plans

    when I look at it written down it’s pure template 10k, but I just want to win my ML

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Looks decent. You still got wc?

      1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        no played already, kane comes in for firmino, kenedy to lingard and son to city mid before 37

  18. kennethrhcp
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    A: Alli & Morgon
    B: Mahrez & Kiko*

    *kiko = sgw

  19. james 101
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    So do we have a template for FH in 35 yet?

    Anyone want to take a shot?

    1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      it’s difficult because you’d want 3 city but pep could rest anyone

      1. james 101
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Agreed. That's what's making me wary.

        I think you'd want at least one decent player on your bench

        1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Liverpool may be risky too. auba/arsenal defender definitely in the mix

    2. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      let us FH34ers have the forum 🙂 haha

      1. james 101
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Ha. Don't resent you mate.

        Just want to stop thinking about my own BB34 team for a bit!!

        1. kennethrhcp
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          I think i'm just gonna lock in my 1st attempt & worry later in the week

          1. james 101
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Smart!!

  20. HD7
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    1) Sanchez or Lukaku

    2) Tom Carrol or Andy King

    1. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I'm going Kaku... 2 weaker teams. doesn't he usually like that kinda stuff

  21. Pat Bonner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Folk planning Aubameyang to Lukaku still doing it for 34? Would prob be a -8 for me as no FH so not sure now

    1. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Yeah I'm bringing him in but with a free transfer

    2. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      waiting to see what happens with salah/firmino

      i’ve no FH and i’m using TC so probably looking at either lukaku or sanchez

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Sanchez could be genius

    3. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      -4 I need to do but still likely to.

      Could do -4 for Sanchez instead but don't see myself changing, despite today

  22. seanie3
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    whats going on with mahrez? last two fixtures looked like so many points on paper but nothing!!!

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Frustrating but got to hope he does something in the double. Now sure if Leicester are on the beach tho

  23. AThousandSuns
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Hi Kane Cappers! How you guys doing? Apparently one of you guys told me to get a big sofa because I do not have kane. Well I laid on my bed all game long and watched eriksen claim the goals hehehe

    1. mojoindojo
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      hehe

    2. DNML
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Grow up. And link your team 😉

  24. mojoindojo
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    How is this FH 34 team looking?

    DDG
    Alonso Christensen Chilwell
    Sanchez Eriksen Pogba Willian Albrighton
    Kane Vardy

    3.9 Long DCL Mariappa

    0.5 ITB

    1. Vamos
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Nice, better than mine I'd say! Not sure I'd be brave enough to go double Chelsea defense though, but hard to know which Spurs player to swap Christensen for given rotation.

  25. Whats the Mata?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Would you drop Salah for Sanchez this week?

    1. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      yes

    2. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      waiting to see what happens Tuesday and pressers

    3. Goonsquad245
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I am doing so for a hit

  26. Reuser
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Any thoughts on this FH34 team?

    DDG
    Alonso, Morgan, Lowton
    Sanchez, Eriksen, Son, Lingard, Arnie
    Kane, Vardy

    Trying to go for explosive players and some differentials from the bb template.

    Thanks.

    1. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      looks good! I like the arnie call. i'm trying to go with 11 dgwers

    2. Vamos
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Similar to mine too. Need to make up points so no benefit to getting in Lukaku, Mahrez or William.

      Undecided on Burnley defenders. Had two all season but that's struggling to keep CS. Probably due one mind and they have something to play for too.

  27. kennethrhcp
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    money no issue... Pogba or Lingard?

  28. Anthony77
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Kane to rise again tonight ?

    I would have to buy him now.. cant afford a price rise

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Probably.

    2. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      buy now to be safe

  29. Legomané
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Nice article

  30. Gudjohnsen
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    A. Alonso, Pogba,Lukaku
    B. Ward, Hazard,Sanchez

    1. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      A