Metrics
7 April 2018 2516 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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After a disappointing and low-scoring start to the Gameweek, it’s time to lose ourselves in a dose of metrics with the focus on the latest rash of Wildcards.

But first I would like to start this article with a few thoughts on the purpose of these pieces and the data they expose.

There was a recent Hot Topic discussing the use of metrics and statistics to analyse the moves of top managers, and I wanted to add a few points to the discussion.

For me, every time the game updates after the deadline, one of the first things I do is to scan my rivals’ squads to learn who they brought in, who they captained and if they used any chips.

It’s a common practice, and I believe that there are two main reasons why we look at competitors in this way.

Firstly, competition is a big part of why Fantasy games are so compelling and addictive.

Knowing what I am up against before the matches kick off gives me another perspective during the moments of triumph and frustration that occur throughout the Gameweek.

Secondly, a view on the moves and decisions of the teams around me can help decide my own planning. It can give me more information about what differentiates my squad from rival managers.

I don’t mine this information to copy their teams, in fact, most of the time, it means the very opposite.

I use it to look for strategies that I could only identify after knowing exactly what I’m up against. Metrics allow me to build a picture of behaviour and decisions around me and I use that to shape my own strategy.

Your rivals are not just mini-league managers; we’re competing against every active team.

Looking at ownership of players, templates of Wildcards and captain picks mirrors how we check on our friend’s teams in mini-leagues, but on a larger scale.

It provides the fun and anticipation during the actual games and could also help decide on a strategy to beat the average and inform on risk and reward when considering transfers.

Some managers claim that ownership data is useless, and while picking a player just because he is highly owned is not a strategy that I endorse, it’s not the metrics that are behind such a tactic. They just provide extra information that each manager can use in their own way.

As an example, while I happily invest a good amount of time creating and looking at metrics, I avoided Romelu Lukaku on my Wildcard plan, despite knowing that he has a relatively high ownership and would be a probable captain in Gameweek 34.

Instead, I went for a differential strategy of tripling up on the Manchester United defence, which is against the established template.

However, paying attention to metrics has helped me articulate my plans this season and has assisted in my first ever top 10k rank placing, which, fingers crossed, I now hope to maintain.

So, metrics are just like any other statistics. They are a way of organising a look at manager behaviour in the past to help us plan for the future, using our own methods and thinking.

That being said, now let’s look at this Gameweek 33’s statistics.

Once again the Wildcard chip proved very popular as managers bid to prepare for the Double Gameweek 34. Overall some 93858 Wildcards were played.

We have seen that last week 21.53% of the top 10k managers (and 15.87% of the top 100k) chose to activate the chip.

This week, we have a smaller crowd with 11.03% of the top 10k putting the chip in play, as part of 9.79% in the top 100k .

That raises the total percentage of second Wildcards used in the top 10k and top 100k to 75.07% and 71.02% respectively.

So there are still a quarter of the top managers who have kept their Wildcard for the later stages of the season.

members

Many factors have changed since last week, and the managers who delayed the refresh certainly had more information at hand.

Mohamed Salah’s injury scare and the speedy return of his Golden Boot rival Harry Kane are two very important shifts in the landscape that occurred since Gameweek 32.

So, let’s look at how the most selected Wildcard team has changed.

members
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There are some notable differences between the two teams.

Salah is only selected by 43.25% of the Wildcards as opposed to 99.5% of last week’s chips.

Many Gameweek 33 Wildcarders dropped him and opted for Kane instead; indeed a hefty 77.2% chose this route.

Salah’s lower percentage seems to be balanced by a surge of interest in Jesse Lingard (43.6%) who is the enabler to fund the Kane move.

Meanwhile, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy both make their way out of the template Wildcard team so that Kane could come in.

This leads to a higher ownership for Ashley Barnes (55.8%), which is also a knock-on for his stunning goal at The Hawthorns – his fourth in four Gameweeks.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most chosen forward claiming 77.8% of Wildcards, with a probable planned shift to either Kane or Lukaku to come ahead of Double Gameweek 34.

While the goalkeeping positions remain settled for David de Gea and Matthew Ryan, the defence sees a drastic change.

The main difference is that new Wildcarders have decided to ignore Manchester United backline. The unexpected benching of Eric Bailly in Gameweek 32, along with the return of Phil Jones, threatens the starting role of Chris Smalling and has proved a major deterrent.

Some 60.2% of managers opted for Ben Chilwell as they cheap route into Leicester’s defence, though the template doubles up here to also include their skipper Wes Morgan.

Along with Burnley’s Matthew Lowton and James Tarkowski, that Leicester pair clearly proved vital for freeing cash for the potential swap from Aubameyang to Kane and Lukaku.

Finally, the Andrew Robertson pick of Gameweek 32 Wildcard is replaced by Chelsea’s Andreas Christensen who is perhaps seen as more assured a week later. Marcos Alonso is therefore omitted to save funds for the expensive frontline.

So, the strategy prefered by Gameweek 33 Wildcarders is to double up on cheap defenders of Burnley and Leicester to splash the cash elsewhere.

Now, let’s delve deeper by looking at the club breakdown.

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We see that Spurs assets showed a significant boost in selection this week, with confidence in Kane, Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli booming ahead of their Double Gameweek 34.

Meanwhile, interest in Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal has declined.

Moving on to this week selection statistics, it’s Aubameyang who is most captained in the top 100k managers, with 41.1% of the managers now waiting on his potential haul against Southampton on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the 18% who captained Kane will be bitterly frustrated at the Match Centre decision to hand Christian Eriksen’s Spurs’ second goal earlier today.

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The ownership of Salah dropped this week to 83.11% (started by 72.8%) in the top 100k and 81.7% (started by 71.2%) in the top 10k, compared to around 99.5% last week.

With his possible return for the Champions League on Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if Salah sales continue.

Finally, we present the team with players with the highest effective ownership – which is the regular ownership plus captaincy – in the top 100k.

members

Many of the players in this line-up have already failed to produce today, like Firmino, Kane, Heung-min Son, Riyad Mahrez and De Gea. Others failed to even feature such as Salah, Robertson, Rob Elliot and Ben Davies.

That all points to where we started this article: this looks destined to be a low scoring Gameweek for many.

  1. HNI
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Please help choose one
    1) Smalling + Vardy + Son
    2) Mariappa + Kane + Lingard (-4)
    Currently on 1 as Kane dint even have a shot at stoke and wpuld
    Be captaining Lukaku

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Got to be 1

    2. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      1 just. & as youre captaining Lukaku

  2. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Sanchez or Lukaku for DGW 34 ?

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Tricky. Probably Lukaku as there's better midfielders to choose from

      1. Flynny
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        I think it's hard to say without seeing your team.

        E.g. I have auba and vardy

        Auba will become kane.

        But think I should keen vardy. That is pushing me to sanchez....

    2. Toblerone52 - Zlatan Ibra-H…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Sanchez

  3. Fantasyamateur
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Have exactly enough to do Mustafi and Auba to Naughton and Kane tonight for a hit before Kane's price raise. Do it or wait?

    DDG - Ryan
    Mustafi - Morgan - Tarkowski - Lowton - Christensen
    Willian - Alli - Mahrez - Gudmundsson - Gross
    Vardy - Auba - Lukaku

    Will give me 14 DGWers to BB with next GW..

    1. Gaztafari
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      It's now or never.

    2. Gaztafari
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Or wait and get Kiko

  4. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    LMS Captains

    108 Aubameyang
    1 Hazard
    7 Kane
    1 Lukaku
    1 Mahrez
    1 Son

    1. BobBradleysOpportunity
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      the only hazard captainer!

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Should be safe today at least.

        1. BobBradleysOpportunity
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          so long as kane logs off twitter anyway!

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Blimey. No longer in LMS but I feel like a fool after seeing how many had Auba (C)!

  5. AThousandSuns
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Is Kanes price gobba rise tonight or would Eriksen claim his price rise?hehehehehe

    1. AThousandSuns
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      gonna

  6. james 101
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    BB Team for GW34:

    (G2G or suggest any changes?)

    DDG, Ryan
    Christensen Smalling Chillwell. Lowton Mariappa
    Alli, Son, Mahrez, Willian, Kante
    Vardy, Kane, Lukaku

    1FT only. No cash in the bank.

  7. Zebrahimović
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Anyone else keeping Salah? C'mon, I recon he's gonna punish that Bournemouth defence

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Of course. If he's fit, he stays

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Will decide after Tuesday but likely to keep unless out injured

    3. Big Ping
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Your username... i like it.

      1. Zebrahimović
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Ta, Big Ping. Send my regards to Little Ping.

    4. Bury94
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Not really sure why you'd get rid tbh

      1. Zebrahimović
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        I haven't enteratined the idea, so much value to lose and a headache to get him back in. A lot of people are talking of dropping him here or have already.

  8. Respect My Authoritah
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Doing some early free hit gw35 planning:

    Pickford
    Coleman PVA Bauer
    Salah KDB Sterling Arnie Zaha
    Auba Aguero

    3.9 Ings Long 3.9
    0.0 ITB

    How's she looking?

    1. james 101
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Nice. What's your squad value there?

      1. Respect My Authoritah
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        102.9

        1. james 101
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Thanks mate. I always ask as a little more here and her can be a big deal.

        2. james 101
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          My concern is rotation.

          But it's difficult to do much about that except hedge your bets.

          1. Respect My Authoritah
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Indeed. Think with City there isn't too much concern as there's nothing to rest players for

    2. Zebrahimović
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I like it but i'd probably want one more Liverpool player.

      1. Respect My Authoritah
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Yeah, issue for me there is good chance of rotation

    3. lumaunited
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Arnie who?

  9. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Guys do u all think lukaku being the flattrack bully he is the better choice than Sanchez?? Or maybe Kane?

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Fancy Kane against City quite a lot now

  10. Bury94
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Hate doing early transfers but I literally have just enough to do Auba to Kane, and with Kane rising tonight I may not have a choice but to do it! Having 2 Ft makes it slightly easier

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Auba will probably rise this week too if that makes a difference

      1. Bury94
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        If he blanks tomorrow though maybe he won't

  11. Baked baines
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    2 FT. Aubameyang &Son > Kane & Lingard

    1. Flynny
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Yes

  12. Rik Waller
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    We headed for the lowest average of the season?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Lowest is 40 so possibly.

      1. Rik Waller
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Cool. Where are these stats at?

  13. Flynny
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Vardy owners.

    We have to keep don't we??

    Notnworth replacing with lukaku surely?

    Thanks

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Definitely. He's basically a cheaper Lukaku

      1. Flynny
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Except he doesn't feel like a captain option for dgw34 does he....

        1. Respect My Authoritah
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          True. I wouldn't captain Lukaku myself. No pens makes him quite a dull boy

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Keep.

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Lukaku isn't worth 11.5, Vardy allows a better overall team imo

  14. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Mcilroy flying

  15. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    May have to ditch VDH due to the injury. If Auba can rise before next week, I could get Trippier in for him.

    Would you? Rested due to muscular fatigue today.

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Wouldn't get Trippier, no

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      *as part of the Auba > Lukaku move

      1. Jimmers
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Will be rotated particularly with Cup semi-final imminent

  16. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Is Smalling nailed. Though he scored he was horrific in defense??

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      No. Yes, kinda.

    2. Respect My Authoritah
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Nope. But he'll probably play most games

    3. sully29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Not nailed but very likely to start.

    4. Zebrahimović
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I recon so. Bailly wasn't on it either. Smalling and Jones in the double?

      1. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        I just wonder given smalling's frailties vs big teams may just start in the dgw.

  17. Alex_thekid
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    I wanted to save my WC for gw36 and BB in gw37 and FH in gw34 but my team was not good team was
    Pickford Pope
    Vvd Tarkowski Alonso
    Salah Sterling Shaqiri Stanislas Marhez
    Firmino Aubameyang Wilson
    WC team is
    Dgea Ryan
    Tarkowski Dunk Kiko Morgan Smalling
    Salah Sterling Marhez Willian Lingard
    Kane Aubameyang Barnes
    25 points With only Aubameyang captain and Willian left to play
    O forget to save my team after WC Captain was Salah Aubameyang VC and Willian 1st on the bench

  18. Ronnies
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Need yer help guys.... 2 free transfers.

    mustafi & auba to a or b ?

    a) tarky & kane
    b) smalling & lukaku

    Tnks..

  19. Jigger & Pony
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    What a second half after a terrible showing first half...

  20. Vamos
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    FH 34 players...

    Essential players for your team's? For me, it's a spine of:

    De Gea. Alonso. Erikssen. Sanchez. Kane. Vardy.

    Then I'm torn between Burnley Vs Leicester defense, a Spurs defender vs a Spurs second midfielder, Wood v Barnes.

    Currently on:

    De Gea.
    Alonso / Smalling / Chilwell
    Sanchez / Erikssen / Willian / Arnie
    Kane / Vardy / Barnes

    You?

  21. DAZZ
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    How can i check my updated ranking? Sure i seen a website that tells you

  22. Colonel Shoe 肝池
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    very tempting to do firmino/auba to kane/barnes for free

  23. Deulofail
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    I have Kiko, 0.1 ITB and 1FT. Is there any defender you would rather have for GW34 for 4.4m? (Excluding Leicester and Lowton)

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Probably not, no

      1. Deulofail
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers. Perhaps Masuaku is the only rasonable alternative (VDH too if fit), but Kiko probably a safer bet. Will probably end up wasting my FT

  24. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Pick one for gw34
    A) aub + stafi to Kaku + Valencia
    B) aub + stafi to Kane + Christ
    C) aub + stafi to Kane + Smalling
    D) aub + stafi + Salah to Kane + Lingard + Valencia (-4)
    E) aub + stafi + Salah to Kaku + erik/alli + Valencia (-4)
    Helpp

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      C

  25. mr messi
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Vardy or Lukaku for gw34?

    1. Cok3y5murf
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Lukaku

  26. Gudjohnsen
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Free hit team:
    Ryan
    Alonso, Tarkowski, Morgan
    Hazard, Alli, Lingaard, Pogba
    Kane, Lukaku, Vardy

    Subs: not worth mentioning

    Difficult to fit Sanchez in.

    1. Vamos
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I'd have Sanchez over Hazard and swap Pogba or Lingard personally

  27. The White Pele
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    A. Lukaku & Alli
    B. Sanchez & Vardy

    1. Gudjohnsen
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      B

  28. tisza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    I know Utd won etc. but wasn't overly impressed FPL-wise . Don't fancy double Utd defence/keeper either.
    Think I want to keep Vardy over Lukaku. Not sure Lukaku is worth the extra money.
    Would also allow me to upgrade either Willian or Son to Eriksen.

  29. badgerboy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    GW updated.

  30. Jigger & Pony
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    How is this for a FH team?

    McCarthy
    Tarkowski Lowton Morgan
    Sanchez(c) Eriksen Alli Arnie
    Kane Lukaku Vardy

    1. Vamos
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Think there's some good games for defenders this week, so might be tempted to do Sanchez or Lukaku to bolster the back.