Metrics
7 April 2018 2516 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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After a disappointing and low-scoring start to the Gameweek, itโ€™s time to lose ourselves in a dose of metrics with the focus on the latest rash of Wildcards.

But first I would like to start this article with a few thoughts on the purpose of these pieces and the data they expose.

There was a recent Hot Topic discussing the use of metrics and statistics to analyse the moves of top managers, and I wanted to add a few points to the discussion.

For me, every time the game updates after the deadline, one of the first things I do is to scan my rivalsโ€™ squads to learn who they brought in, who they captained and if they used any chips.

It’s a common practice, and I believe that there are two main reasons why we look at competitors in this way.

Firstly, competition is a big part of why Fantasy games are so compelling and addictive.

Knowing what I am up against before the matches kick off gives me another perspective during the moments of triumph and frustration that occur throughout the Gameweek.

Secondly, a view on the moves and decisions of the teams around me can help decide my own planning. It can give me more information about what differentiates my squad from rival managers.

I donโ€™t mine this information to copy their teams, in fact, most of the time, it means the very opposite.

I use it to look for strategies that I could only identify after knowing exactly what Iโ€™m up against. Metrics allow me to build a picture of behaviour and decisions around me and I use that to shape my own strategy.

Your rivals are not just mini-league managers; we’re competing against every active team.

Looking at ownership of players, templates of Wildcards and captain picks mirrors how we check on our friend’s teams in mini-leagues, but on a larger scale.

It provides the fun and anticipation during the actual games and could also help decide on a strategy to beat the average and inform on risk and reward when considering transfers.

Some managers claim that ownership data is useless, and while picking a player just because he is highly owned is not a strategy that I endorse, itโ€™s not the metrics that are behind such a tactic. They just provide extra information that each manager can use in their own way.

As an example, while I happily invest a good amount of time creating and looking at metrics, I avoided Romelu Lukaku on my Wildcard plan, despite knowing that he has a relatively high ownership and would be a probable captain in Gameweek 34.

Instead, I went for a differential strategy of tripling up on the Manchester United defence, which is against the established template.

However, paying attention to metrics has helped me articulate my plans this season and has assisted in my first ever top 10k rank placing, which, fingers crossed, I now hope to maintain.

So, metrics are just like any other statistics. They are a way of organising a look at manager behaviour in the past to help us plan for the future, using our own methods and thinking.

That being said, now letโ€™s look at this Gameweek 33โ€™s statistics.

Once again the Wildcard chip proved very popular as managers bid to prepare for the Double Gameweek 34. Overall some 93858 Wildcards were played.

We have seen that last week 21.53% of the top 10k managers (and 15.87% of the top 100k) chose to activate the chip.

This week, we have a smaller crowd with 11.03% of the top 10k putting the chip in play, as part of 9.79% in the top 100k .

That raises the total percentage of second Wildcards used in the top 10k and top 100k to 75.07% and 71.02% respectively.

So there are still a quarter of the top managers who have kept their Wildcard for the later stages of the season.

members

Many factors have changed since last week, and the managers who delayed the refresh certainly had more information at hand.

Mohamed Salahโ€™s injury scare and the speedy return of his Golden Boot rival Harry Kane are two very important shifts in the landscape that occurred since Gameweek 32.

So, letโ€™s look at how the most selected Wildcard team has changed.

members
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There are some notable differences between the two teams.

Salah is only selected by 43.25% of the Wildcards as opposed to 99.5% of last weekโ€™s chips.

Many Gameweek 33 Wildcarders dropped him and opted for Kane instead; indeed a hefty 77.2% chose this route.

Salahโ€™s lower percentage seems to be balanced by a surge of interest in Jesse Lingard (43.6%) who is the enabler to fund the Kane move.

Meanwhile, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy both make their way out of the template Wildcard team so that Kane could come in.

This leads to a higher ownership for Ashley Barnes (55.8%), which is also a knock-on for his stunning goal at The Hawthorns โ€“ his fourth in four Gameweeks.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most chosen forward claiming 77.8% of Wildcards, with a probable planned shift to either Kane or Lukaku to come ahead of Double Gameweek 34.

While the goalkeeping positions remain settled for David de Gea and Matthew Ryan, the defence sees a drastic change.

The main difference is that new Wildcarders have decided to ignore Manchester United backline. The unexpected benching of Eric Bailly in Gameweek 32, along with the return of Phil Jones, threatens the starting role of Chris Smalling and has proved a major deterrent.

Some 60.2% of managers opted for Ben Chilwell as they cheap route into Leicesterโ€™s defence, though the template doubles up here to also include their skipper Wes Morgan.

Along with Burnleyโ€™s Matthew Lowton and James Tarkowski, that Leicester pair clearly proved vital for freeing cash for the potential swap from Aubameyang to Kane and Lukaku.

Finally, the Andrew Robertson pick of Gameweek 32 Wildcard is replaced by Chelsea’s Andreas Christensen who is perhaps seen as more assured a week later. Marcos Alonso is therefore omitted to save funds for the expensive frontline.

So, the strategy prefered by Gameweek 33 Wildcarders is to double up on cheap defenders of Burnley and Leicester to splash the cash elsewhere.

Now, let’s delve deeper by looking at the club breakdown.

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We see that Spurs assets showed a significant boost in selection this week, with confidence in Kane, Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli booming ahead of their Double Gameweek 34.

Meanwhile, interest in Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal has declined.

Moving on to this week selection statistics, itโ€™s Aubameyang who is most captained in the top 100k managers, with 41.1% of the managers now waiting on his potential haul against Southampton on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the 18% who captained Kane will be bitterly frustrated at the Match Centre decision to hand Christian Eriksenโ€™s Spursโ€™ second goal earlier today.

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The ownership of Salah dropped this week to 83.11% (started by 72.8%) in the top 100k and 81.7% (started by 71.2%) in the top 10k, compared to around 99.5% last week.

With his possible return for the Champions League on Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if Salah sales continue.

Finally, we present the team with players with the highest effective ownership – which is the regular ownership plus captaincy – in the top 100k.

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Many of the players in this line-up have already failed to produce today, like Firmino, Kane, Heung-min Son, Riyad Mahrez and De Gea. Others failed to even feature such as Salah, Robertson, Rob Elliot and Ben Davies.

That all points to where we started this article: this looks destined to be a low scoring Gameweek for many.

  1. Dybala10
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Aubameyang & Son to Kane and who?

    A) Lamela
    B) Groß (own Murray)
    C) Fraser
    D) Albrighton (own Mahrez)

    1. how now brown cow
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Not sold on any of them really.

    2. barton fc
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      b

    3. Colonel Shoe ่‚ๆฑ 
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      no

    4. n-doggg
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Lingard?

  2. Vamos
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Appreciate the help finishing off my FH team. Fancy Arnie to do well against Stoke and can't decide between Spurs and Burnley defenders. Latter frees up funds too...

    A. Vertonghen, Arnie, Wood
    B. Vertonghen, Willian, Barnes
    C. Tarkowski, Son, Wood
    D. Willian, Arnie, Barnes

    1. Vamos
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Also, double Man U defense this week. Sensible? Actually tempted to captain De Gea...

    2. IamthenextTeemuPukki
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      B for me.

      1. Vamos
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Thanks!

  3. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
    Played my WC this week.

    Brought in Alli over Son and Eriksen hauls. I made a few changes ystrdy to my WC team and had 0.6 left over but didn't realise I could have afforded Eriksen .

    That may be silly on my part and has proved to be the case so far.

    Also I didn't anticipate Smalling was a rotation risk because of Baillys return ??

    Looking at my ML a lot have Auba (c) and held off on Kane. I jumped straight back in and it has the potential to cost me tomorrow.

    Anyone else feel the missed a trick on their WC?

    1. Deulofail
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Yeah the trick for me would have been to stick to the plan and not WC

  4. how now brown cow
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    3.5M gw rank. Not been down there in a while.

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      4.8M here, absolutely awful!

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Over 4m for second gw running and I used my wc! Skills

    3. n-doggg
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Gw not over yet.

  5. FPL Husaria
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    I need sell one, who? Please
    A) Salah
    B) Mahrez
    Thinking A will be better. 9.8 selling price. 8.2 to spend in midfield.

    1. Darsh
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      is neither an option?

      1. FPL Husaria
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Or Hazard and spend 9 in middle.
        I can sell monreal for 4.5 def and get lukaku instead Kane.

  6. Bonus magnet
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Auba + Shaq-> Sanchez +Okazaki

    Think Vardy won’t play 2 full games so Okazaki’s worth a punt?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      *sells Vardy*

    2. Bissisine
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Why will he not play 2 full games?

  7. SheBangsTheDrums
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    What happened to Ibe today?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Illness

      1. SheBangsTheDrums
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers TM! Likely to be ok to play both next week?

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Guess so.

  8. Darsh
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    If you could have only one for DGW 34, would you prefer Kane or Lukaku?

    1. Vamos
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Kane, but because I fancy Sanchez over Lukaku

  9. HD7
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    BB team for next week (-8 points), any good ?

    De Gea
    Alonso Baily Morgan
    King Son Willian Mahrez
    Kane Vardy Lukaku(C)

    Subs: Ryan, Tark, Gudm, Lowton

    *FH in 35

    1. Bissisine
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      So smooth

      1. HD7
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Have to wait for Gudm news though... hope he is back

  10. George James
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Any further update on Salah?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Expect him on Tuesday.

      1. George James
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        You think TM? If he plays Tuesday can’t see any reason him not playing next Saturday?

  11. n-doggg
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    His Kane going up tonight or is fpl stats distorted with wildcards?

    1. Colonel Shoe ่‚ๆฑ 
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      hard to say but looks like he will

    2. rivercityransom
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      not even close on fffix

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Are they ever close?

    3. elkunaguero
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      FFFix has him at 44%, I’m confused

    4. Sedemuda
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      FFFix also has him on 5 points?

  12. Gudjohnsen
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Mahrez or Vardy?

    1. Vamos
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I'm going Vardy.

    2. Nascimento
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I've got both but would prefer Mahrez if only one

  13. Nascimento
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    City think they've got the title wrapped up - I think today just goes to show you can never write off Utd

    1. n-doggg
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      For the title? They definitely have it wrapped

      1. Nascimento
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        But how often have we been written off? We are the ultimate underdogs. They're still favourites though.

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          ๐Ÿ˜†

        2. Rik Waller
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Good of you to admit that they're still favourites

        3. kennethrhcp
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          unsure if serious, trolling or drunk ๐Ÿ™‚

          1. Nascimento
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            I did point out we're underdogs.

    2. Pras (FPL)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      There is a greater chance of Arsenal being relegated than Man U pipping Man City to the title this season.

      1. Nascimento
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        There's a good chance of Arsenal being relegated. They're rubbish.

        1. Deulofail
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          They're on 51 points with a game in hand.

  14. Mahrez The Magician
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    BB with 9 doublers + Karuis (BOU) Robertson (BOU) Salah (BOU) Mustafi (new) Mkhi (new) Arnie (STO)
    ( I have 2 FTs if someone is not fit )
    A- Deserve
    B- Loss

    1. Mahrez The Magician
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Plz i need thoughts

  15. Lone Wolf FPL
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Just curious. One DGW in 34:

    a) Kane, Cork, Yoshi
    b) Morata, Gross, Christensen

    1. Nascimento
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      A

  16. Our Tiny Windows
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Cheeky repost as I got bottomed.

    Am I good to go this week? Everyone’s double game week apart from Liverpool players. Be brutal. I have 100 points to gain.

    De Gea
    Smalling VVD Christensen
    Salah Son Willian Mahrez Alli
    Firmino Vardy

    (Elliot Wilson Long Ogbonna)

  17. Salah Fingers
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Aub and Gross to Kane and Cork?

  18. kennethrhcp
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    sorry if asked & answered 100times already... Pogba or Lingard for 34 only? (not taking money in to account)

    1. Our Tiny Windows
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Pogba if you can afford

    2. rdamjan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Pogba

    3. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      thanks lads! have him in there but was really unsure

  19. diesel001
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Patrick Reed crushing it at the Masters. Fair play, but would prefer someone else to win

    1. Nascimento
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I love that they pit it on the sports channels

      1. Nascimento
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        *put

    2. n-doggg
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Rory will win now. Plays best when chasing

    3. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Caught him at 4/1 keeping my fingers crossed (as Rory finds the bunker at 12)

  20. rdamjan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Opinion on this FH team:

    Schmeichel
    Veronghen/Tarkowski/Lowton
    Sanchez/Mahrez/Willian/Lingard
    Lukaku/Vardy/Kane

    1. Vamos
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Really good. I've gone a bit heavier in defense in case United grind out a couple of 2-0s rather than go goal crazy.

      Don't fancy Chelsea to get some sort of defensive return?

      1. rdamjan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        I fancy them but really can afford only Christensen instead of Vertonghen. I can upgrade Lowton then but I dont know to who.

  21. james 101
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    BB Team for GW34...

    G2G - or suggest any changes?

    DDG, Ryan
    Christensen Smalling Chillwell. Lowton Mariappa
    Alli, Son, Mahrez, Willian, Kante
    Vardy, Kane, Lukaku

    1FT only. No cash in the bank!

  22. Reuser
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Anyone brave enough to go with Morata for dgw34?

    On FH34 and looking for potential differentials with relatively high ceilings......

    1. MTPockets
        7 years, 11 months ago

        never again

      • Epic Fail
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        No.
        You?

        1. Reuser
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Monitoring....

    2. faux_C
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Heh, the week of my wildcard is the worst week of my season. GW rank 4.5m. Gotta hope Auba pulls it out the bag tomorrow.

    3. AThousandSuns
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Any idea on When kane gets a next price rise?

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Could be in 4.5 hours.

        1. AThousandSuns
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Cheers

    4. CRO KLOPP
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Gameweek rank updated,smallest green with 21 points

    5. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Back outside 20K ๐Ÿ™

      1. Mahrez The Magician
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        BB with 9 doublers + Karuis (BOU) Robertson (BOU) Salah (BOU) Mustafi (new) Mkhi (new) Arnie (STO)
        ( I have 2 FTs if someone is not fit / NO FH )
        A- Deserve
        B- Loss
        Toughts TM plz !?

    6. Lumberjack
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      FH34...which 5 would you splash out on? I’m thinking:

      Alonso
      Sánchez
      Mahrez
      Kane
      Lukaku

      I reckon I can also squeeze in Willian, Schmeichel in goal.

    7. Salarrivederci
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Best GW in a long time. With a little luck Top10K is within reach.

    8. WVA
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Absolutely fuming that Pickford is stuck on my bench.

      Lost 41 points on my bench last few weeks!

      1. MTPockets
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Oh you shouldn't have done that - Everton at home not so bad...

        • Lumberjack
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          I did the same. 2 points from Fab instead ๐Ÿ™

      2. SheBangsTheDrums
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        How do these moves look for -8? Will need to pull the trigger tonight though!

        Out: Robertson, Salah, Auba

        In: Masuaku, Alli, Kane

        Leaves me with a BB team of:

        DDG Ryan
        Alonso Mustafi Lowton Morgan Masuaku
        Alli Mahrez Hazard Ibe King
        Kane (c) Lukaku Murray

        1. n-doggg
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Masuaka... sure you can squeeze to a 4.3 or 4.4?

          1. SheBangsTheDrums
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Nope. 4.2 is max available but he did play an attacking role last week and has a good fixture in 34!