Metrics
7 April 2018 2516 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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After a disappointing and low-scoring start to the Gameweek, it’s time to lose ourselves in a dose of metrics with the focus on the latest rash of Wildcards.

But first I would like to start this article with a few thoughts on the purpose of these pieces and the data they expose.

There was a recent Hot Topic discussing the use of metrics and statistics to analyse the moves of top managers, and I wanted to add a few points to the discussion.

For me, every time the game updates after the deadline, one of the first things I do is to scan my rivals’ squads to learn who they brought in, who they captained and if they used any chips.

It’s a common practice, and I believe that there are two main reasons why we look at competitors in this way.

Firstly, competition is a big part of why Fantasy games are so compelling and addictive.

Knowing what I am up against before the matches kick off gives me another perspective during the moments of triumph and frustration that occur throughout the Gameweek.

Secondly, a view on the moves and decisions of the teams around me can help decide my own planning. It can give me more information about what differentiates my squad from rival managers.

I don’t mine this information to copy their teams, in fact, most of the time, it means the very opposite.

I use it to look for strategies that I could only identify after knowing exactly what I’m up against. Metrics allow me to build a picture of behaviour and decisions around me and I use that to shape my own strategy.

Your rivals are not just mini-league managers; we’re competing against every active team.

Looking at ownership of players, templates of Wildcards and captain picks mirrors how we check on our friend’s teams in mini-leagues, but on a larger scale.

It provides the fun and anticipation during the actual games and could also help decide on a strategy to beat the average and inform on risk and reward when considering transfers.

Some managers claim that ownership data is useless, and while picking a player just because he is highly owned is not a strategy that I endorse, it’s not the metrics that are behind such a tactic. They just provide extra information that each manager can use in their own way.

As an example, while I happily invest a good amount of time creating and looking at metrics, I avoided Romelu Lukaku on my Wildcard plan, despite knowing that he has a relatively high ownership and would be a probable captain in Gameweek 34.

Instead, I went for a differential strategy of tripling up on the Manchester United defence, which is against the established template.

However, paying attention to metrics has helped me articulate my plans this season and has assisted in my first ever top 10k rank placing, which, fingers crossed, I now hope to maintain.

So, metrics are just like any other statistics. They are a way of organising a look at manager behaviour in the past to help us plan for the future, using our own methods and thinking.

That being said, now let’s look at this Gameweek 33’s statistics.

Once again the Wildcard chip proved very popular as managers bid to prepare for the Double Gameweek 34. Overall some 93858 Wildcards were played.

We have seen that last week 21.53% of the top 10k managers (and 15.87% of the top 100k) chose to activate the chip.

This week, we have a smaller crowd with 11.03% of the top 10k putting the chip in play, as part of 9.79% in the top 100k .

That raises the total percentage of second Wildcards used in the top 10k and top 100k to 75.07% and 71.02% respectively.

So there are still a quarter of the top managers who have kept their Wildcard for the later stages of the season.

members

Many factors have changed since last week, and the managers who delayed the refresh certainly had more information at hand.

Mohamed Salah’s injury scare and the speedy return of his Golden Boot rival Harry Kane are two very important shifts in the landscape that occurred since Gameweek 32.

So, let’s look at how the most selected Wildcard team has changed.

members
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There are some notable differences between the two teams.

Salah is only selected by 43.25% of the Wildcards as opposed to 99.5% of last week’s chips.

Many Gameweek 33 Wildcarders dropped him and opted for Kane instead; indeed a hefty 77.2% chose this route.

Salah’s lower percentage seems to be balanced by a surge of interest in Jesse Lingard (43.6%) who is the enabler to fund the Kane move.

Meanwhile, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy both make their way out of the template Wildcard team so that Kane could come in.

This leads to a higher ownership for Ashley Barnes (55.8%), which is also a knock-on for his stunning goal at The Hawthorns – his fourth in four Gameweeks.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most chosen forward claiming 77.8% of Wildcards, with a probable planned shift to either Kane or Lukaku to come ahead of Double Gameweek 34.

While the goalkeeping positions remain settled for David de Gea and Matthew Ryan, the defence sees a drastic change.

The main difference is that new Wildcarders have decided to ignore Manchester United backline. The unexpected benching of Eric Bailly in Gameweek 32, along with the return of Phil Jones, threatens the starting role of Chris Smalling and has proved a major deterrent.

Some 60.2% of managers opted for Ben Chilwell as they cheap route into Leicester’s defence, though the template doubles up here to also include their skipper Wes Morgan.

Along with Burnley’s Matthew Lowton and James Tarkowski, that Leicester pair clearly proved vital for freeing cash for the potential swap from Aubameyang to Kane and Lukaku.

Finally, the Andrew Robertson pick of Gameweek 32 Wildcard is replaced by Chelsea’s Andreas Christensen who is perhaps seen as more assured a week later. Marcos Alonso is therefore omitted to save funds for the expensive frontline.

So, the strategy prefered by Gameweek 33 Wildcarders is to double up on cheap defenders of Burnley and Leicester to splash the cash elsewhere.

Now, let’s delve deeper by looking at the club breakdown.

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We see that Spurs assets showed a significant boost in selection this week, with confidence in Kane, Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli booming ahead of their Double Gameweek 34.

Meanwhile, interest in Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal has declined.

Moving on to this week selection statistics, it’s Aubameyang who is most captained in the top 100k managers, with 41.1% of the managers now waiting on his potential haul against Southampton on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the 18% who captained Kane will be bitterly frustrated at the Match Centre decision to hand Christian Eriksen’s Spurs’ second goal earlier today.

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The ownership of Salah dropped this week to 83.11% (started by 72.8%) in the top 100k and 81.7% (started by 71.2%) in the top 10k, compared to around 99.5% last week.

With his possible return for the Champions League on Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if Salah sales continue.

Finally, we present the team with players with the highest effective ownership – which is the regular ownership plus captaincy – in the top 100k.

members

Many of the players in this line-up have already failed to produce today, like Firmino, Kane, Heung-min Son, Riyad Mahrez and De Gea. Others failed to even feature such as Salah, Robertson, Rob Elliot and Ben Davies.

That all points to where we started this article: this looks destined to be a low scoring Gameweek for many.

  1. Merlinsnose
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    For DGW

    A) Kane and Lingard

    B) Lukaku and Gudmundsson

    C) Auba and Son

    I do not have FH.

    Thank you.

    1. Legomané
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      A, though I’d want Lukaku or Sanchez too tbh.

    2. camarozz
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      A I think. I have Kane and Gross .

  2. Legomané
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    A. Lingard Lukaku(c)
    B. Sánchez(c) Austin or Murray (-4)

    DDG Ryan
    Alonso Christensen Vertonghen Chilwell Lowton
    Mahrez Son Willian _____ Milivojevic
    Kane _____ Barnes

    (BB34 obvs) cheers πŸ™‚

    1. UshFPL
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      A

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      A

    3. Legomané
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Stick to the plan - cheers both

  3. UshFPL
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Auba and Alonso -> Kane and Christensen (-4)?

    1. _Make
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Er what? Three quarters of those players haven't played yet!

      1. UshFPL
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Kane is rising tonight. Auba will need to go for Kane anyway and Alonso ->Christensen is the easiest way to raise funds. The only risk is a Christensen injury

        1. _Make
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Respectfully you've kind of made up your mind already then. Anything could happen with those three players, but if your DGW plans require those moves then you got to do what you got to do.

        2. Rash
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Yea because Christensen never gone off injured so far..

        3. CloudSky
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Or a Kane injury?

    2. VDiesel26
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I've just done Auba to Kane myself but keeping Alonso for now

  4. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Brought in Alli on WC .
    My rivals have Eriksen .

    If u had exact mitb would you swap them now before dgw or stick and hope Alli does better than him.

    1. UshFPL
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Stick

    2. n-doggg
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Stick

    3. _Make
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Three times a stick.

    4. xtina
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Stick for sure. Waste of a transfer when either can get similar points

    5. danishdynamite
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      How did Alli play today ??

      1. Vlad Tepes
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        I thought he was good. Actually better than Eriksen

        1. danishdynamite
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          ta

  5. KGFC
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Best picks for FH34?

    1. Rash
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Sanchez lukaku Kane eriksen and build from there

    2. CloudSky
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      DDG, Lingz, Sanchez, Lukaku
      Schmeichel, Maguire, Mahrez, Vardy
      Lloris, Vert, Alli, Eriksen, Son, Kane
      Alonso, Azpi, Christensen, Willian, Hazard, Morata

    3. IbrahiManU
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Got the following for a FH:
      DDG
      Christ., Alonso, Morgan, Lowton
      Sanchez, Pogba, Hazard/Salah, Mahrez
      Kane, Vardy

      Lowest possible bench.

      1. Whats the Huth
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        This is decent, but I would do Salah to Erkisen. Forgo Mahrez and get Lukaku in

      2. Scotty B
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Looks good that

  6. estheblessed
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    BB this week. Is this worth a -4pts?

    Salah > Eriksen
    Kennedy > Alli
    Auba > Vardy

    1. Rash
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      If you're comfortable going without salah then that's a very good move

      1. estheblessed
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        I'll put him in potentially for free hit then may be get him back but then there are only 3 games left.

    2. danishdynamite
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Yup, i'm doing a similar-ish move

      1. estheblessed
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Thanks

  7. danishdynamite
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Choose

    A) Eriksen, and kinda be forced to make my transfers tonight
    B) Delli Ali, be chilled like Winston and kick back til the end of the week

    1. xtina
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      b

    2. _Make
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Winston wasn't chilled, that's the problem!

      If in doubt chill though πŸ™‚ Alli is fine.

      1. danishdynamite
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        He was told to chill, you’re quite right

        I’ll chill

  8. Patch
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    My Nemesis like me, has decided to forgo Kane today.

    He has instead brought in Morata and capped, whilst I have capped Auba...

    May the best man win...though I would say my Nemesis seems to annoyingly get lucky a lot...

    1. estheblessed
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      You'll do better

  9. el polako
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Sterling is shite.

    1. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      He isn't

      Just wasn't his day today.

      On another day, he would have had a hatty - maybe GW35

  10. The Wizard of Ozil
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Too many times I've said, I need Alonso to go BESERK tomorrow... And it never happens.

    1. estheblessed
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I hope so... He's costing me a lot with little return thus far

    2. el polako
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      #Leicesteraway

  11. Stokelona
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    How does my free hit team look?

    De Gea
    Smalling Morgan Alonso
    Cook Willian Son Mahrez
    Kane Lukaku Vardy

    3.9 Hojberg 3.9 3.9

    1. minges
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Nice!

  12. WesMantooth
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    On FH34 now and just wondering how i stack against the crowd.

    Ive currently got a selling value of 102.0

    Anybody care to share their values?

    1. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      102.6

      1. WesMantooth
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        thx

    2. Stokelona
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Mine is less than that, 101.2m. I haven’t bothered about value this season

      1. WesMantooth
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Has'nt really been a season to do so since theres been a lot of steady performers and less volatility in rises, and especially falls.

    3. CloudSky
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      104.2

      1. WesMantooth
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Selling value??

        Wow!

        1. CloudSky
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Yeah. Had a good first half of the season so didnt need to chase the value as the players I had were rising in price.

    4. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      105.5 (tv 106.4)...

      Unfortunately the reason for it is playing too much money game and chasing last week points in autumn. Rookie mistake.

  13. Hart-ake
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Best def 4.7 and under for dgw34?

    1. Mikeharbrw
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Femenia

      1. Hart-ake
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        I should have said the ones I've already got: Kiko and Chilwell

    2. Stokelona
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Morgan and the Leicester double up, so long as you don’t have Vardy and Mahrez and are covered for gw 35

  14. Whats the Huth
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Can I see the FH34 teams?

    I expect DDG. Erkisen. Sanchez. Vardy. Kane. Lukaku

    I have my template team currently

    1. Stokelona
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Got those 3 up top but hard to afford Sanchez and eriksen too!

      1. Stokelona
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Unless I sack off Alonso...not even sure Chelsea will get a clean sheeet

  15. minges
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Not sure where to go here, would love some helpful advice. 2ft 0itb

    DDG Ryan
    Alonso Valencia Lowton Morgan Mariappa
    Salah Hazard Mahrez Willian Gudmunson
    Lukaku Vardy Barnes

    Thoughts are salah & Vardy out to get Kane & 5.7mid, or lingard also by adding Valencia to Vert

    Madness to sell Vardy before dgw? Other option is Barnes to Kane for a power front 3 but requires big downgrades elsewhere

    1. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Alonso out to Vert
      Barnes ro Kane

      1. minges
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        -6.3 short πŸ™‚

    2. BUZZBOMB β™‘
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Whatever Alonso delivers for you its only for a few GWs now so not for me. Same Haz. Too much cash tied up when better alternatives. These 2 and Salah, Gud are bigger priorities to think about than Vardy. Id have Vardy 34-38 if there was a 4th forward. Madness to sell.

      1. minges
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Yeah it's Kane fever

  16. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Zero interest in the Metrics article series. I feel this sort of meta-gaming is basically highlighting the worst elements of the FFS community and taking things a step too far away from what FPL is actually about, i.e. the game on the field.

    1. _Make
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I see where you're coming from, but you know there are people who do this stuff behind the scenes to get an advantage and always have done. I'd rather it were out in the open.

    2. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      FPL is about results. Anything which leads to gains is a good thing. All pieces of the puzzle

    3. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I don't even read things like this but fair play to the writer, I'm sure he put lots of effort in, it's just not my cup of tea.

    4. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      It was a nice article and much more entertaining (and interesting) than same template rmwct:s here over and over again.

      And it is interesting to see what others do and why. I agree with Ragabolly, it is good to know your enemy and know what you are up against.

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        And seeing the templates makes following the games more exciting also. You know then players who shouldn't deliver. And for those who are chasing (most of us), it gives valuable info that is not available elsewhere. Auba (c) is not differential where it counts for example.

  17. The Tinkerman
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Gudmunsson my only injury doubt for a full 15 for DGW34. Fingers crossed.

  18. VDiesel26
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    BB active, 1 FT 0.6mITB

    DDG Ryan
    Alonso Morgan lowton tarkowski Mustafi
    Mahrez gross son Willian Salah
    Kane Vardy Barnes

    Will most lilely keep Salah if he plays any part on tuesday even if he only has 1 fixture next gw

    Mustafi > who?

  19. Norman Conquest
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    will courtois play tomorrow

    1. Norman Conquest
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      anyone anyone anyone

  20. Fantasyamateur
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Have exactly enough to do Mustafi and Auba to Naughton and Kane tonight for a hit before Kane's price raise. Do it or wait?

    DDG - Ryan
    Mustafi - Morgan - Tarkowski - Lowton - Christensen
    Willian - Alli - Mahrez - Gudmundsson - Gross
    Vardy - Auba - Lukaku

    Will give me 14 DGWers and will use BB in 34. Also using FH in 35 so don't have to take that GW into consideration.

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Go for it if you want Naughton.

  21. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Would u transfer out Salah to Sanchez for a hit??

    Just did my WC this week and only have Smalling for utd fixtures. (Benched today of course)

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      No

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      See how Tuesday goes

  22. Tronity
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Think I may avoid Kane and go for Salah and Aubameyang > Eriksen and Lukaku with 2FTs.

    Will free hit in 35 and likely bring Salah back in for 36. Thoughts?

  23. Pat Bonner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Anyone explain how that’s a Shaqiri assist?

    1. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Intended team mate/area seems most likely.

  24. Rainer
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Assist of the season there from Shaqiri!

  25. william prunier
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Exact money to do Auba to Kane, do it do it tonight?

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      You know the risk.

    2. Norman Conquest
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      do it. do it, do it now

  26. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Kane rising again after that performance πŸ˜†

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Was he really that bad. If he doesn’t score then he doesn’t do much else does he

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Look really bad from what I seen

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Not got an easy way to bring him in then

    2. el polako
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      He is due a haul...

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Not the way to play the game pal

    3. Norman Conquest
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      planned to get him in in 36 he is still on probation

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        I think 36 at the most now too

    4. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      He is always bad after injury. No news. (Was able to start and play, which is progress) And after that he usually improves. I did Auba to Kane.

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        So laugh at me AFTER gw34 results are known, please πŸ˜‰

      2. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        And he was only 15-20 cm away from really scoring πŸ˜‰

  27. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Which option looks better?

    A Elliot, VLP & Aubamayang > Ryan, Lingard & Vardy
    B Baines, Deeney & Aubamayang > Lowton, Barnes & Kane
    C Baines, VLP & Aubamayang > Lowton, Pogba & Vardy

  28. diesel001
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Reed should play the lottery today because it is his lucky day

    1. My Name Is Prince
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Innit strange how good players are more lucky than bad players?

      1. diesel001
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Don't think Reed is better than Spieth, Thomas, McIroy, Fowler, DJ etc. But it looks like Lady Luck and fate is on his side so whatever anyone does he is going to win - written in the stars.

        See it a lot in cricket in batting IMO - some days everything you do goes wrong, other days you get dropped three times and make a century. Remember KP and Mark Butcher having some of those good days in the Ashes when scoring centuries.

  29. My Name Is Prince
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Auba, Salah, Mustafi —> Kane, Pogba (or Lingard but maybe Pogba has had a timely confidence boost now), Christensen to give me 15 doubles for -4?

  30. fiveyears
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    I was a bitter Kane captainer earlier but there's no way on god's earth he gets anything on that!

    1. fiveyears
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Now Lampard has said it's come off his badge and I'm furious again