The Free Hit chip proved hugely successful for our Top Five in the Career Hall of Fame. The green arrows were out in force as four of the five achieved their best ranks of the season.
The highest scoring manager of the week was Graeme Sumner (aka Gregor) with a score of 78. The Liverpool fan bravely captained Manchester City’s Raheem Sterling instead of his side’s phenomenal Egyptian Mohamed Salah. It must have been a strange afternoon supporting Liverpool for Graeme; no doubt hoping for Salah to do well, but not that well. It proved to be the correct decision with Sterling outscoring the newly crowned PFA Footballer of the year by 11 points to seven.
Graeme moves up to 117,328 and will be hoping to salvage some respectability from an incredibly disappointing season. This time last year he had hopes of winning the FPL title before slipping back to 29th overall.
Another manager to have fallen from grace this season is Career Hall of Fame number one Peter Kouwenberg (aka My Pretty Pony). Last week Forest fan Peter achieved his highest rank since Gameweek 1, this week he jumped up a further 100k places to 189,555. After three top 1,000 finishes in row Peter will at least be hoping to make the top 100k, he’s never had a six digit finish before.
Mark Sutherns (aka Mark) moved to a season high rank of 5,316 with a ninth top 10,000 finish now appearing assured. An impressive 72 points despite a no show in his Free Hit side from Arsenal’s Mesut Özil, means Mark has managed five green arrows in a row. In Gameweek 30 he was just inside the top 50,000.
Mark now reverts back to his Gameweek 34 side, which thankfully for him contains Salah. Although he will likely captain Tottenham’s Harry Kane, given that he pretty much always does – 20 times this season compared to four times for Salah – and he is going to Wembley on Monday night to watch the Spurs game. Hopefully his presence will inspire the England man to a bag a few goals.
The only man in our Top Five without Salah this week is Live Hall of Fame leader Jay Egersdorff. The Blackburn Rovers fan had triple Spurs in his Gameweek 34 line-up so he will also be hoping Tottenham can turn over a Watford side who appear safe from relegation. However Jay’s made two transfers this week and taken a hit – could one of his Spurs contingent have been upgraded to Salah?
Gameweek 35 saw Jay leap back into the top 1,000 with a score of 75. A template front two of Manchester City’s Grabriel Jesus and Arsenal’s Alexandre Lacazette contributed 20 points to his total. Jay is now 897th overall.
With a Gameweek score of 67, career HoF number four Matthew Jones (aka Numb) is now only seven points outside the top 10,000. Ranked 12,113 overall, Matthew is on target to notch an eighth top 10,000 finish, a remarkable feat in itself but even more so when you consider he was ranked 2,993,511 in Gameweek 5. As the saying goes “cream always rises to the top”.
This article focuses on the moves and strategies employed by the five elite managers who grace the upper echelons of this site’s Career Hall of Fame. Between them these managers have achieved nine top 1,000 finishes in the past three seasons and have ended up in the top 10,000 a whopping 37 times over the course of their FPL careers.
To help out I have also deployed Fusen’s FPL Statistico tool to gain an extra insight into their thinking.
POINTS & RANK
| Manager | Peter | Graeme | Jay | Matthew | Mark |
| GW points | 65 | 78 | 75 | 67 | 72 |
| Total points | 1,983 | 2,010 | 2,184 | 2,107 | 2,135 |
| FPL rank | 189,555 | 117,328 | 897 | 12,113 | 5,316 |
| FPL ID | 36298 | 345 | 175574 | 97282 | 370 |
The graph below shows the ranks of the top five managers over the season so far. The vertical scale is from rank 1 to 3m. The distance between the ranks corresponds to the number of points separating them. For instance there are 311pts between rank 1 and rank 100k but only 171pts between 100k and 1m. The graph gives an idea of how difficult it is to move up the ranks as you near the summit.
Overall the biggest gains were made from Gameweeks 6 to 16. Logic would normally tell us that the more information you have the better decisions you make, therefore you might expect Gameweeks 17 to 30 to have seen the biggest improvements. Ranks decreasing, or at least slowing their rate of improvement, over the latter period of the season perhaps tells us something about how tricky this campaign has been for many.
However the pattern is breaking; the group has managed 23 green arrows out of 25 in the past five Gameweeks. There’s a belated surge up the rankings as the Top Five look to finish the season with a flourish.
| Rank | 1 | 10 | 100 | 1,000 | 10,000 | 100k | 1m | 2m | 3m |
| Points Difference to First | 0 | 43 | 95 | 148 | 215 | 311 | 482 | 591 | 708 |
CAPTAIN
| Manager | Peter | Graeme | Jay | Matthew | Mark | Ave. (c) points | As % of score |
| GW (c) Points | 14 | 22 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 22 |
| Total (c) Points | 517 | 491 | 576 | 550 | 514 | 530 | 25 |
So far this season eleven different players have been handed the armband by our Top Five.
Kane is the most popular having been chosen 42% of the time followed by Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah on 23%. However it is the Egyptian who has proven a more reliable captain choice than the erratic Englishman – his average 23.5 point return is more than double Kane’s 11.5 points.
In the graphic below I’ve displayed this information for the five most popular captain picks.
Manchester United’s Romelu Lukaku, Manchester City’s Raheem Sterling and Chelsea’s Eden Hazard complete the most popular captain picks. Lukaku has been chosen 14% of the time and averages 14.3 points as captain, Sterling and Hazard have both been chosen 5% of the time. Hazard averages 14.5 points, while Sterling averages an impressive 24.5 points.
FREE HIT TEMPLATE
Players in Bold are in 3 teams or more
Butland, AN Other
Long, Bellerin, Klavan, Baines, Milner
Salah, Sterling, De Bruyne, Zaha, Mané
Jesus, Lacazette, Crouch
There was a template look to the Top Five teams last week, perhaps inevitable when a Free Hit chip is used by many in a blank Gameweek. Salah, Jesus, Sterling, Lacazette, and Burnley’s cheap as chips defender Kevin Long, were present in all five teams.
FORMATION
| Manager | Peter | Graeme | Jay | Matthew | Mark |
| Formation | 3-4-3 | 4-4-2 | 3-5-2 | 3-5-2 | 4-4-2 |
The only automatic substitutions this week that caused formation changes were for Mark and Graeme as Özil was replaced by Liverpool’s Ragnar Klavan. This meant they shifted from a 3-4-3 formation to 4-4-2.
Over the season 3-4-3 is the most frequently used FPL set-up and has been chosen 45% of the time, with 3-5-2 second on 29%. 4-4-2 has been chosen or defaulted to 10% of the time.
TRANSFER SUCCESS – SEASON SO FAR
| Manager | Peter | Graeme | Jay | Matthew | Mark | Average |
| Total Transfers | 50 | 39 | 40 | 34 | 42 | 41 |
| Total Points Hits | 76 | 32 | 36 | 16 | 44 | 41 |
| Total Immediate Points Gained from Transfers | 165 | 200 | 187 | 100 | 192 | 169 |
| Minus Points Hits + FH | 50 | 98 | 75 | 31 | 101 | 71 |
| £ Value GW35 | 103.3 | 103.7 | 103.5 | 104.1 | 105.2 | 104.0 |
| Total Benched Points | 171 | 213 | 215 | 133 | 206 | 188 |
Caveats to this table:
- It doesn’t reflect that Transfers aren’t made with only one fixture in mind
- It doesn’t reflect when Patience in an underperforming player finally pays off
- Points from newly transferred in players left on the bench are included.
- Players transferred in and captained have their points counted double.
- I’ve subtracted the points gained on the Free Hit chip from the total
The Free Hit chip rather skews the figures in Fusen’s FPL Statistico tool, so I’ve subtracted them from the Total Immediate Points Gained from Transfers after Hits. This gives a more accurate reflection of the type of season it has been. So far Mark is the only manager to break the 100 points barrier.
COMPARING LAST SEASON TO THIS SEASON
| 16/17 Season | 17/18 Season | |
| Total Points | 1,992 | 2,084 |
| FPL Rank | 26,472 | 65,042 |
| Transfers Made | 45 | 41 |
| Immediate Transfer Points Minus Hits | 219 | 71 |
| Captain Points | 480 | 530 |
Comparing last season’s Top Five to this season’s Top Five reveals some interesting trends.
The average total points for this season is 92 points up. Yet despite the huge jumps this week, the higher points total has not translated into better ranks. In fact the average rank is still more than double what it was at the same stage last year (65,042 v 26,472).
The higher points total makes the low immediate transfer points even harder to fathom. Although it might go some way to explain why Peter, a manager who is not shy of taking a hit – 76 points so far this season, 92 points at this stage last season – has struggled so much this year.
At the end of Gameweek 35 last season, Peter, who was ranked 423rd, had an impressive 244 immediate transfer points after hits. This year he’s on 50. It simply hasn’t been a season suited to Peter’s managerial style.
FPL & LIVE HOF BATTLES
Since a season high of 48th overall in Gameweek 16, Jay has slipped back to 145 points behind first place.
At the top, overall leader Bharat Dhody increased his lead to 18 points after gaining 72 points on his Free Hit chip. Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey was the notable difference between his team and that of our Top Five. The Welshman returned 12 points against West Ham last weekend.
Bharat’s Gameweek 34 team also did not contain Salah and, like Jay, he’s made two transfers ahead of today’s deadline. I wonder if Salah will be back in his side for this Gameweek…
Matt Kearney (aka Bøwstring the Carp) managed a green arrow as begins his recovery from the dreaded Scoutcast curse, where good managers tend to drop in the overall rankings after appearing. Matt appeared ahead of Gameweek 34, where he fell from 23rd to 66th in the placings.
Matt is another manager without Salah heading into Gameweek 36 and so far he’s made a single transfer ahead of the deadline. With no money in the bank, it looks like Matt will be going without the Egyptian this week. Matt is up to 39th overall going into this weekend’s games.
Jay’s closest rival in the Live Hall of Fame Grant Barclay (aka Jake Donahue), made it two green arrows in a row with a gameweek score of 76. He’s currently five points ahead of Jay in FPL and ranked 730th overall.
Despite Mark’s recent good form, he has dropped from third to fourth in the Live Hall of Fame. He’s replaced in third spot by Richard Clarke, a manager who is experiencing an even better run of form with seven green arrows on the trot. Richard is currently 68th overall.
Matthew’s improved performance recently sees him hold onto fifth place in the Live Hall of Fame, meaning former Hall of Fame number one Ville Ronka drops to six. However it’s three green arrows in a row for Ville for the first time since Gameweek 25 as the enigmatic Finn moved up to 3,611 overall.
Ville has only once finished outside the top 5,000 since his first season in 2008/09. His end of season capitulation last year – he finished with a rank of 21,905 – explains why he isn’t higher in the HoF.
TEMPLATE
Players in Bold are in 3 teams or more
De Gea, Ryan
Lowton, Alonso, Tarkowski, Morgan, Dunk
Salah, Mahrez, Willian, Son, Kenedy
Kane, Lukaku, Vardy / Barnes
After playing the Free Hit chip, teams now revert back to their Gameweek 34 players.
AVERAGE COST PER PLAYER
*based on GW32 wildcard prices (except for Salah!)
Goalkeeper – £5.2m
Defender – £5.1m
Midfielder – £7.4m
Forward – £9.6m
In The Bank (ITB) – £0.4m
PLAYERS
| Players in 5 Teams | Mahrez, Willian, Lowton, De Gea |
| Players in 4 Teams | Kane, Lukaku, Salah, Alonso, Tarkowski, Morgan, Ryan |
Players in Bold are Magic Beans – Attacking players £6m and under
| Manager | Players in 3 Teams | Players in 2 Teams | Players in 1 Team |
| Peter | Vardy, Barnes | Son, Kenedy | Bailly |
| Graeme | Barnes | Dunk | Groß, Albrighton |
| Jay | Barnes | Son, Kenedy | Alli, Kenedy, Cedric, Long |
| Matthew | Vardy | Dunk | Matic, Gudmundsson, Christensen, McCarthy |
| Mark | Vardy | Austin, Arnautovic, Lingard, Smalling, Maguire |
So far Peter and Jay are the only managers to make any transfers ahead of the deadline this week.
If one manager wished they could have a Free Hit chip every week it would be Peter. In typical fashion he’s taken a couple of hits this week, perhaps after a run of five green arrows his Midas Touch is returning?
