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Wisdom of the Crowd – 2017/18 Season Review

So there we are for another year, with mixed emotions – partly glad that it’s all over and that there’s a few weeks’ break before the World Cup, and partly missing it already.

I feel like the Wisdom of the Crowd concept has been successful, with the average predictions of thousands of people on Superbru outperforming most individuals.

Mr Crowd Wisdom (see image below), the user we created to input the average community scores, finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league. After Round 33 Mr Crowd Wisdom reached the top 2% in the world, before slipping back slightly over the last few weeks.

Over the course of the season, this user never fell out of the top half of the global leaderboard, rising the rankings to the top 20% by Round 8, and breaking the top 10% by Round 22.

That improvement over time could reflect the general Darwinian pattern of usage in Fantasy and predictor games, with the less avid (less knowledgeable?!) players dropping out along the way, leaving a slightly smaller pool of keener fans to improve the average prediction accuracy through to the end of the season.  There’s no science here, for reference, just an observation.

Thank you to everyone that has provided feedback on this series, I’m glad some people have enjoyed them.  And thanks to those that have embraced Superbru, recommended it to others and set up their own leagues as well.

Note : I have set up a FFScout pool for the World Cup Predictor, and if sufficient people join, I can look at doing some more articles like this during the tournament.  Please do get involved – the more knowledgeable fans we have the better!

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12 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    12 days, 16 hours ago

    Thanks for posting over the season - been a really popular series. 🙂

  2. Gravless are for Kinnear
      12 days, 14 hours ago

      Thanks for posting throughout the season

    • Reedy
        11 days, 18 hours ago

        I only found this halfway through the season but I've enjoyed it, and I'm looking forward to a full season of the predictions game at Superbru. It's been an excellent starting point for planning my FPL team each week.

        1. Hutch_James
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          11 days, 17 hours ago

          Thanks Reedy, pleased to hear that feedback

      • Andy_Social
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        11 days, 18 hours ago

        Cheers James, I enjoyed playing it a lot. Regarding the World Cup game, can you change your prediction after entering it, like in the Premier League version?

        1. Hutch_James
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          11 days, 17 hours ago

          Yes you can change your prediction up to kick off, but you won't be able to see anyone else's picks or the community predictions until you have locked in your own.

      • G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        11 days, 17 hours ago

        Really have enjoyed doing this throughout the season will have a look at the World Cup version and continue next season with the normal game.

        1. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          11 days, 17 hours ago

          How you did
          In Round 38, you picked 6 / 10 outcomes correctly, which was better than the 71,103-strong community's average of 5.78 / 10. Keep it up!

        2. Hutch_James
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          11 days, 17 hours ago

          Really pleased you've enjoyed it. The World Cup Predictor will be great, and sometimes works better than fantasy for the short tournaments with lots of matches every day.

      • PDM (Top 1000) ANY Season L…
          11 days, 15 hours ago

          This has been thoroughly enjoyed by myself .... A little miffed that I joined this in GW10 but found it a great incentive to climb up the ranks as the season progressed. Definitely looking to improve in the World Cup version next month. A great distraction to FPL SKY etc ....
          Keep up the great work and pencil me in the Top Spot 😉

        • insertcomedyname
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          11 days, 14 hours ago

          I enjoyed the articles and they helped also in thinking about transfers and how to put in my starting 11. Thanks for putting the effort in

        • Saint Steve-O
            11 days, 42 mins ago

            Me and my friend do a private FPL podcast for our mini league, anyhow, next season we'll be pitting our wits (and entering) individually into next seasons SuperBru predictor game. Always a good read to help make my fi Al decisions. Cheers