Formations and Premium Defender Analysis

Many FPL managers overlook premium defenders in FPL, with their focus being on trying to fit as many premium midfielders and forwards into their teams as possible, with defenders then being selected according to whatever budget they have left when satisfied with their front line. In this article I will look at the potential benefits of putting more of your budget into your defence as well as the different formation options this can open up for you.

Early Clean Sheets?

We know that the premium defenders from the top 6 clubs generally keep more clean sheets than other defenders across the course of the season but does this pattern still apply when looking at the a smaller selection of matches at the start of the season? This table looks at the clean sheets picked up by the current top 6 clubs and the average for the rest of the league over the past 6 seasons for the first 5 games:

While this data is not entirely conclusive it does show that generally the top 6 sides keep more clean sheets than the rest of the league in their first 5 games. It is also worth noting that the average for the rest of the league is taken across 14 teams usually keeping between a range from 0 to 3 clean sheets in the first 5 games. It is very difficult to select which teams will keep 3 and which will have 0 or 1, as it is obviously different year on year. Therefore, to increase your chances of clean sheet points early on, it is best to consider having at least 2 or maybe 3 premium defenders in your starting squad.

Attacking returns

Now I will look at the season as a whole to consider whether it is worth keeping premium defenders in your side across the season. This table shows the average number of goals, assists and bonus points collected by defenders in different price brackets in each of the past 3 seasons. I have also included the numbers from midfielders and forwards in comparable price brackets for comparison. All players with less than 1000 minutes played in a season were excluded from the data.

Firstly, it is worth comparing the defenders within the different price brackets and generally the most expensive defenders average better numbers for goals, assists, and bonus points, which is why they have the most premium price. However they are quite closely matched by defenders in the 5.5M bracket across all 3 seasons and there are some appealing options at this price this season such as Hector Bellerin. In the 15/16 season the performance of the 5M defenders was above average showing that good value can emerge from this price bracket.

I think the most striking thing however is how consistently poorly the 4.5M defenders perform compared to the other price brackets with around a goal, an assist and 5 bonus points less across a season. This equates to 14 points alone before even considering the greater clean sheet potential of the premium options. Last season the top 6 combined to keep 99 clean sheets at an average of 16.5. The other 14 teams combined to keep a total of 127 at an average of 9.1 giving a difference of 7.4, which if rounded down to 7 gives an additional 28 points on average for the top 6 clubs defenders. Therefore investing in 5.5M+ defenders at the expense of 4M or 4.5M defenders has an average points differential of 42 points a season per player based off these numbers. The big question is where you weaken your team in order to generate the funds to do this and this is where the analysis of the midfielders and forwards comes in.

There has been a lot of discussion as to who the best 6.5M midfielder is this season and many of the RMT’s I have seen have at least one or two of them. These include Ryan Sessegnon, Luka Milivojevic, Richarlison and Diogo Jota, who all have ownership of over 5% at this moment, as well as James Maddison and Pedro. All of these players have promise but for three of them it is their first season at Premier League level while Pedro may not be a guaranteed starter throughout the season.

It is undeniable that valuable assets will emerge from in and around this price such as Marko Arnautovic and Wilfried Zaha last season, and Josh King before that, but predicting who it will be before the season starts is extremely difficult and while stats can be utilised to aid the decision it often comes down to a gut feeling. To add to this is the potential danger of early price drops for some of these players which you can read in more detail about in my previous article, FPL Market Analysis. The same can be said for forwards in the 6M-7M range, of which there are many to be considered this season, but no guarantee as to which will emerge as the value picks.

Therefore, I would suggest say getting rid of a 6.5M midfielder for a 4.5M bench player and then the 2M in funds that this generates can be invested in upgrading one of your 4M or 4.5M defenders. This would most likely mean a change of formation as you would have an extra premium defender that would be in your starting XI every gameweek with your new midfielder on the bench.

Another advantage of this is that the 4.5M midfielders are more likely to make appearances and pick up 2 points if you need them to, last season 7 of them played over 2000 minutes compared to just one 4M defender. The premium defenders are also more stable in terms of maintaining their value. A 6M-7M forward could also be swapped for a cheaper alternative to open up funds but again the 4.5M and even 5M forwards often struggle for gametime with only Jordan Ayew playing over 2000 minutes last season.

Formations

Considering what has been said above, here is a template for a squad to start the season with, in terms of price points, and I will then explain how this can adjusted to accommodate for other factors.

Firstly, to note the players I have put in are just examples of an option at that price point and this is not a recommended starting squad. I also left 1.5M in the bank that could be used to upgrade any position in the team. I would suggest that the benefit of this squad composition is that it offers two potential starting formations without leaving an excessive amount of value on the bench as if a 4M starting defender is available you can easily pick up starting players in all of the other outfield positions.

A 433 could be utilised if one of your cheaper defenders has an appealing fixture or 343 with your 5M midfielder playing if you prefer his fixture to your defenders. It also has captain choices (probably Salah) and flexibility to move to different players at key price points, more specifically 10M-11M forwards and 9M-10M midfielders. Admittedly, one 6.5M midfielder has still been selected but there are funds to upgrade him if required. Other adjustments that can be easily made include changing the goalkeepers to a 4.5M rotation pair and selecting a 4.5M forward and investing more funds in the midfield in which case 442 or 352 could become your formation of choice.

I believe that starting with the 3 premium defensive options should not be changed as this is what offers the squad its price stability and flexibility and if several value attackers and midfielders emerge that you want to jump on this can easily be done with the use of a couple of transfers or a wildcard.