The Digest – FPL Gameweek 2

Our Gameweek 2 coverage ends with this regular look back at a player, team and discussion point that attracted our interest in the weekend’s matches.

Danny Ings got off the mark in a Southampton shirt to command our attention, while Chelsea’s early-season displays bode well for their Fantasy Premier League assets.

We also look at the rise and rise of the left-back.

The Player

After a promising 34-minute cameo at St. Mary’s on the opening weekend of the season, Danny Ings (£5.5m) backed up that performance with his first Southampton goal in the 2-1 defeat to Everton on Saturday.

Ings is currently the third-most bought forward of the round, with his price tag being an obvious source of attraction.

Sergio Aguero was the only player to attempt more shots than Ings (six) in Gameweek 2 and the former Liverpool man could well have had a second goal to his name but for the sprawling reflexes of Jordan Pickford in the first half.

Ings on occasion came short from his centre-forward position to collect the ball in the Gameweek 1 encounter with Burnley, but his collective penalty box touch count should assuage any fears that he plays too deeply to represent a potent goal threat: the Saints striker already has more touches in the opposition area than the likes of Marko Arnautovic, Cenk Tosun, Troy Deeney and Aleksandar Mitrovic in the mid-price forward bracket, despite playing fewer minutes than any of the above.

Only Aguero and Mitrovic among FPL forwards have had more attempts on goal than Ings so far this season, with eight of the Southampton striker’s nine shots coming from inside the opposition box.

No player in Ings’ position has created more chances than him in 2018/19, either.

While Southampton have yet to taste victory this season, their chance creation rate bodes well for Ings’ prospects in front of goal: only Manchester City and Chelsea have carved out more opportunities than the Saints so far.

With fixtures against Leicester, Crystal Palace and Brighton to come in the next three Gameweeks (two of which are at home), Ings looks excellent value for money as a budget third (or even second) striker. His £5.5m price tag means he could easily be benched for the subsequent fixtures against Liverpool and Chelsea, with his low cost allowing the freed-up budget to be spent on improving positions elsewhere.

While the Saints are well-stocked with forwards, the struggles of Charlie Austin in front of goal this season and Mark Hughes’ switch to a 4-4-2 (i.e. there is space in the starting XI for two forwards in this system) means that there should be little risk of reduced pitch-time in the short term.

The Team

The appointment of Maurizio Sarri as head coach of Chelsea in July was met with enthusiasm among Blues fans and Fantasy managers alike, given the 59-year-old’s impressive record at Napoli.

No Serie A side had scored more goals than Napoli (251) during Sarri’s three-year tenure, while their number of chances created (526) in 2017/18 was greater than not just all other Serie A clubs but also than the 20 sides in the Premier League. Manchester City were the only club in either England or Italy to have more attempts on goal than Napoli (656) in the season just gone, meanwhile.

Despite the sky-high expectations for Chelsea in the Fantasy community, the general consensus was that it would perhaps take a while for Sarri to impress his footballing doctrine on his new squad, particularly given the late nature of the veteran’s appointment (four weeks before the start of 2018/19) and that several of his squad had a brief pre-season due to their participation in the World Cup.

Sarri, indeed, warned just before Gameweek 1 that it would take “two to three months” for his side to get up to speed.

With two wins from two and six goals scored (only City have found the net on more occasions), however, “Sarri-ball” is already in full swing.

Chelsea’s next four fixtures – Newcastle United (a), Bournemouth (h), Cardiff City (h), West Ham United (a) – are appealing and their underlying attacking statistics make for encouraging reading.

Only Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur have had more attempts on goal than Chelsea (37) in the first two Gameweeks of the season, though the fact that the Blues faced a more difficult fixture in Arsenal last weekend should count in their credit. Sarri’s troops, indeed, racked up 24 shots on Petr Cech’s goal over those 90 minutes at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea have also carved out more chances and registered more successful passes in the final third than all other Premier League sides bar Pep Guardiola’s irresistible reigning champions.

All this has been done mostly without the services of Eden Hazard (£10.5m) and Mateo Kovacic (£6.0m), two important pieces of Sarri’s jigsaw who have been reduced to substitute appearances so far this season as they continue to build up match fitness.

Chelsea’s impressive start has translated into FPL points: Marcos Alonso (£6.6m) is the highest-scoring defender in the game, Pedro (£6.6m) has back-to-back league goals and Hazard has two assists to his name already despite only playing a total of 43 minutes.

N’Golo Kante (£5.0m), meanwhile, has suddenly and improbably become something of a budget goal threat, with Jorginho (£5.1m) now tasked with the metronomic role at the base of the midfield three. No player had more penalty box touches than Kante in the Arsenal match, while the French international has already registered four attempts on goal – all of which were from inside the opposition area – so far this season; Kante had the same number of penalty box touches (five) after ten league appearances last season as he managed in 90 minutes of action at Stamford Bridge on Saturday evening.

No FPL midfielder had more attempts on goal (six) than Pedro in Gameweek 2, meanwhile.

While Alonso’s penalty box touches and shot count are down on 2017/18 for the opening two Gameweeks, the Chelsea left-back still represents a potent threat from his new “orthodox” left-back role: unsurprisingly, no Premier League defender has had more attempts on goal than Alonso this season.

That Alonso next faces opposition with potential problems at right-back – DeAndre Yedlin (who looks the likeliest to recover) and Javier Manquillo struggling with knocks, Isaac Hayden suspended – is all-the-more encouraging. Even Cardiff and West Ham face uncertainty in that position, given that Neil Warnock and Manuel Pellegrini have switched right-backs just two Gameweeks into the season.

The Blues’ defence is perhaps something of a concern, given that they conceded 15 attempts on goal and five big chances to Arsenal on Saturday, but with Alonso and Cesar Azpilicueta (£6.5m) compensating with attacking returns, many will happily overlook those issues for the time being.

While many FPL managers are already investing heavily in Chelsea assets (four Blues players feature in the top ten most-bought midfielders of this round), Gameweek 3 might be the final audition for the rest of us. A subsequent double-header of Bournemouth and Cardiff at Stamford Bridge is surely too good to overlook.

The Talking Point

Fantasy Football Scout members Ginkapo and Goldman have both raised Hot Topics in recent days to question/offer explanations why left-backs are performing so exceptionally well in the first two Gameweeks of the season.

Five of the seven defenders who have scored 15 points or more so far in 2018/19 are left-backs, with another of the septet – right-back Ricardo Pereira – spending a large chunk of his time “out of position” in midfield.

The underlying statistics certainly back up their FPL returns.

The three defenders with the most attempts on goal this season are all left-backs, with Benjamin Mendy and Ben Davies (who is not even among the highest-scoring players in this position in FPL) narrowly trailing Marcos Alonso in terms of shots fired.

Half of the 12 defenders (and three of the top four) with the most penalty box touches this season are also left-sided full-backs/wing-backs, while the five defenders who have created the most chances in the opening two Gameweeks are Jose Holebas, Mendy, Davies, Ben Chilwell and Andrew Robertson – all five of them with one position in common.

It is difficult to offer a satisfactory explanation as to why this trend has developed. What should be noted, though, is that two of the three defenders who provided the most assists last season – right-backs Kieran Trippier and Kyle Walker – have played just one Premier League game so far this season, with Davies and Mendy on the opposite flanks having 180 minutes to their names.

Trippier, indeed, delivered more crosses than any other FPL defender in Gameweek 2 and had as many penalty box touches as Alonso and Robertson.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have replaced a genuine wing-back in Victor Moses in the right-back position with a man who has spent several seasons at centre-half: Cesar Azpilicueta.

While the omens are good for our assets at left-back, we are only two Gameweeks into the campaign. With Trippier and Walker yet to get up to full speed but showing promising signs in their sole appearances of 2017/18, the dominance of the left-sided full-back could be a fleeting fad. Arsenal’s fixtures, for example, are set to take a turn for the better and the attack-minded Hector Bellerin – while suspect defensively – could suddenly present himself as an attractive option in the £5.5m bracket in the coming Gameweeks. Antonio Valencia has also yet to feature for Manchester United this season through injury.

At the moment though, we certainly can’t argue against Messrs Mendy, Alonso and Robertson as premium defensive picks. It would be a brave FPL manager who attempted to pre-empt the resurgence of the right-back (or, indeed, centre-half) by overlooking that aforementioned trio.

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