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Members August 23

FPL Gameweek 3 – Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

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Out latest article analyses the Opta-driven expected goals (xG) data that is available to subscribers in the Members’ area.

As well as taking a look at the expected goals scored and conceded for all 20 Premier League teams after two Gameweeks of the season, we assess the highest-performing forwards, midfielders and defenders in terms of their own personal expected goal involvement (xGI).

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2,868 Comments Post a Comment
  1. captainjilflex
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Thoughts please...
    Hamer
    VVD Mendy Chilwell
    Salah Rich Mkhi Fraser
    Zaha Kun Arnie
    DDG Lowton Stephens AWB

    0ft 2.4itb
    thanks

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    1. Jackie Moon
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Surely can’t leave DDG out for Hamer! I’ve got the same keepers. DDG plays every week if you fork out the money for him.

      How you feeling about Arnie? West Ham look shaky.

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      1. captainjilflex
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        im gonna get rid of DDG. he didnt even make a save against brighton so too expensive to carry. and huddersfield against cardiff i cant see many goals. if hamer doesnt play then ddg will sub in anyway. just didnt want to take a hit to do it this week.

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        1. Jackie Moon
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Fair call. I’m not convinced about DDG myself at the moment, but just don’t see another really good keeper option at the moment (from teams that I don’t already have a defender from) so going to hold for now until one emerges. Who are you thinking of? Fabianski might be the one once West Hams fixtures turn.

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          1. captainjilflex
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            well ideally id like to do a 4.5 rotation but may have to wait until my wc to do that. not sure at the moment, havnt thought that far ahead...

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    2. Eze Really?
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      5
      6 8 6
      8 7 8 9
      7 9 6
      5 3 1 9
      total 97 good
      With money itb very good

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    3. V K
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Solid team. Ings better value than Zaha (with almost no BPS) and maybe Arnie

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      1. captainjilflex
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        i am considering ings or mitrovic. just reluctant to take a hit and had to get mkhi in. thanks

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  2. V K
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    An off template team this - but how is it?

    DDG - Hamer
    Luiz, Bailey, Mendy, TAA, AWB
    Stephens, HOdoi, Mane, Richarlson, Sterling (c)
    Morata, Auba, Mitrovic

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    1. V K
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Kopkloppers - looking forward to your numbers! 😛

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    2. Francescoli
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      looks like you want to self immolate

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      1. V K
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Would you wildcard this?

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    3. SPorting
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      GK OK
      Defence is average but you could get away with it most weeks
      Midfield is a little too light
      Attack is risky because Morata's returns are never consitent

      only a 6.5/10 from me

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      1. V K
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers. You would wildcard this to settle keepers, mids etc?

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        1. SPorting
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          I think so.

          I have different players but the problems are pretty much the same and a WC is looming this week.

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          1. V K
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            Cheers mate!

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  3. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Wow, Ings still only 5.5m, what a bargain for a points magnet on form and with great fixtures.

    Can’t believe he’s so cheap!!!!

    #gethimwhileyoucan #midgetpower #bapsmaget #lowerownershipdifferential

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    1. Cok3y5murf
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Can Aguero cover him?

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    2. The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Ings essential

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    3. jia you
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Haha, getting him on WC but not expecting too much, should prove good value if the bugger stays fit!

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    4. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Looking at the state of some of the 6.5’s, INGs is at least 1.0 underpriced.

      Him & Fraser is some seriously cheap firepower for 11.0

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      1. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Agreed

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    5. Eze Really?
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I have been harping on about this since the start of the season. so true

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      1. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Fraser & Ings to nail it.

        #shortarsedsuperstars

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        1. Eze Really?
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Yep but I own Fraser only because one of them would be my 8th forward and I will have a mil on the bench.

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    6. Jackie Moon
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Ings is tempting me, but currently playing 442 and still feel he has work to do to prove to me he’s worth more than the likes of PVA to switch to 343.

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  4. jack149331
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Captain Aguero or Salah? and Why?

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    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Salah - dat fixture

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    2. Jackie Moon
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Salah. Went Aguero last week due to fixture and doing same by going Salah this week.

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  5. Gol D Roger
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Patricio
    Peltier Vvd Mendy
    Salah (vc) Rich Hazard Moura
    Arnie Auba (c) King

    Fab---Zanka--Cairney--WB

    Here's the dilemma I went for auba for Aguero for my ft, however I'm concerned about Peltier and Zanka

    Zanka is due back this week and wasn't mentioned as out for this weekend in any conferences

    Peltier wasn't in the squad last time, however have a feeling (I know I know) he will be in this week

    Worst comes to worst tempted to sixth Zanka for another 4.5 for a hit

    Done well so far in terms of points, so the question begs

    Zanka (4.5) to who ?

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  6. jia you
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Probably going without Liverpool defence on WC in favour of:
    Ederson
    Mendy / Alonso / PVA (Cook, AWB)

    Thoughts?

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    1. Carlton_Goal
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Brave, could be smart with Palace's upcoming fixtures though, although TAA is even cheaper than PVA though

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      1. jia you
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Was going to go TAA but a little concerned that Clyne will get some game time and their short-term fix are not great compared to others. Cheers

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        1. Carlton_Goal
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Yeah that's fair enough. I can see PVA scoring a lot of points in the next few weeks

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          1. jia you
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            Cheers mate, I hope so! GL for the GW!

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      2. 1569Tippins
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        I think 3 LIV and 3 MCY are very important this season, they look head and shoulders above the rest.

        Liverpool are one of the best defences so I would definitely want Robertson (and to a lesser extent VVD) for £6m but if you’re looking for a more budget friendly option, you could go TAA.

        I definitely wouldn’t go without 3 LIV players though personally, although the defence you’ve picked there will score well to be fair.

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        1. jia you
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          I hear you but on WC I prefer to gamble on Chelsea (Hazard + Alonso) and Auba coming good for a great run of fixtures on paper! Cheers mate

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          1. 1569Tippins
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            Nothing wrong with that... I think they’ll score well. I think that’s where we differ, I haven’t got Auba but I’ve got 4 at the back - can’t have them all I suppose haha

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            1. jia you
              • 7 Years
              5 years, 9 months ago

              that's exactly it mate, cant have em all, we all need to leave out a few big hitter that we'd like to have in an ideal squad!

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    2. Balotellitubbies
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Looks good, cook is very knee jerk though

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      1. jia you
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Yeah, in for the price rise, he could come out before deadline. But BOU have great fixtures tbf! Cheers

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  7. Carlton_Goal
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Any standout 4.5/4.6 defenders (apart from Palace ones) atm? On a wildcard and could keep Shaw or have TAA as a 4th defender but would rather keep the money in the bank to upgrade others later if need be

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    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Stretching 0.5 to Pereira could be a good move, he looks like a low key Alonso

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      1. Carlton_Goal
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Would Pereira be any better than TAA? Apart from more security of starts

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    2. Eze Really?
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I have been looking too. Tell me if you find one. I have Cook but not really impressed.

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      1. Carlton_Goal
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Holebas looks ok but his fixtures don't. Same story with Duffy. Considering Hoedt or Stephens from Southampton

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        1. Eze Really?
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          True about Holebas. Hoedt/Stevens rotation?

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          1. Carlton_Goal
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            Not sure, don't know enough about Southampton tbh, all I know is they've both played 90mins in both games so far

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          2. Carlton_Goal
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            Hoedt played a lot more minutes last year than Stephens so he might be the one to go for

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    3. pritish253
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I think Stankovic can be a decent selection consider the fixtures

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  8. 15men1cup
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Hi guys,

    quick question I am mulling over in my head.

    A) Alonso, Bennett,

    Or

    B) PVA, Pereira or a 5.0

    Let me know your thoughts.

    Thanks

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    1. V K
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A

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      1. 15men1cup
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks for your feedback

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    2. 15men1cup
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I have Mendy and Robbo it that helps

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      1. Carlton_Goal
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        In that case A, because you wouldn't need both to be playing

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        1. datamunkey
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          This, unless of course you are going 4 at the back. Personally though, this 😉

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    3. child of God
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      B for me

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    4. Y26 Royal
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I prefer B

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  9. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Should I start wildcard with:

    A) Mané (BRI) and have money ITB for Hazard (BOU, CAR, whu) next GW
    B) Hazard and hope he starts against Newcastle and Sadio is quiet against Brighton

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    1. Cok3y5murf
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A

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  10. V K
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Would Bailey or Luiz lose their place this week?

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    1. Eze Really?
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Bailly maybe for Smalling but I don't see him playing left sided on a back 3 which is a possibility.

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  11. Shaikh91
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    My current front 8

    Sanchez, mkhi, richarlison, mane jota

    Aguero, arni, laca.

    Best replacement for Sanchez and laca - 18m?

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    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Has to be Salah +4.5 fodder, bank the change, Salah (c)?

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      1. Y26 Royal
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Prob this. Or if you want Salahless....
        Auba and Pedro?

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    2. The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Dilva and morata?

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  12. MAVER!CK
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Okay let's assume Shaw's fit and nailed for few weeks. Who'd you go for? Shaw or Pereira

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    1. The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Pereira

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  13. Subzero (-4)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Hi guys. I have just became a member yesterday and I was wondering if anyone could give their advice (experience) on this wc team.

    I have spent time researching and looking at data etc and fixtures so I am bot being lazy expecting others to do work etc I just have a couple of areas to finalise before deadline. I have 0.4 itb

    Hennessy
    Alonso Robbo mendy Pva
    Mane salah mhkii Richarlison
    Zaha aguero

    Steck Stephens Bennett Kamara.

    Thinking of swapping zaha out for ings and upgrading Bennett to bellerin/stones? Or even making bennet > perrera (lei) and upgrade keeper to 5.0 option.

    This would definitely beef up bench but worried that zaha out may be a bad move. I've read into the members area and looked at some data and ings looks like he has had a a decent start but am I being blinded?

    I have played with 5 atb first 2 weeks and it's payed off well so looking at playing 541 or 442 potentially rotating ings with better premium def if fixture looks stronger?

    Apologies about long post just don't want people thinking it's just another rmt with no effort already put in.

    Thank you.

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    1. gergin
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I think AWB is enough for 5th def. Do not like combo Mane+Salah either, but it is just me here.. No Chelsea attacking cover can hurt You.

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      1. Subzero (-4)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Good shout on awb as 5th def. will make that change. Thank you

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    2. 1569Tippins
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Looks an excellent team mate. Personally I would max out on MCY but your defence is exactly what I would pick on WC (your GK and 4 starting DEFs). You have the 3 key LIV players, Aguero and cheap/budget bench that will come in as autosubs for a couple of points (this is what I do, rather than wasting funds on rotation players). I personally wouldn’t have gone for Zaha as I prefer Wilson or Ings right now but I can’t knock Zaha as a pick, I personally would just have used AWB as my 3rd Palace pick (over Bennett).

      Regarding your possible tactics, if I would you, I would personally leave it as it is and keep the extra money ITB. Some will agree, some won’t, but you’ve got 11 solid starters there and I would be happy to play them every week regardless of fixtures and then you’ll have the funds available to make a change if you see fit. I understand wanting to strengthen your bench but then you run the risk of benching headaches and leaving the wrong player on the bench... where as if you have a strong 11 with “2 pointers” on the bench who can pick up the odd extra points, you end up getting all of your strong 11 points - that’s how I always set my team up anyway.

      Good luck mate. Very good team.

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      1. Subzero (-4)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Thank you for your reply and input. This really helps and I think getting ings or Wilson allows me to potentially upgrade mane to say hazard with the money in the bank I would have by sticking with a strong 11. Thanks again

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    3. The Mandalorian
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Zaha has a better fitness record than Ings in the past few years and plays for a better team. At 5.5 Ings performance is a risk and that’s reflected by his value. So you weigh up your Ings back up plan and consider if the savings can used well elsewhere. I’ve opted for Mikhi over Zaha and gone with Ings.

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      1. The Mandalorian
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        *be

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      2. Subzero (-4)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Good point regarding ings injury record like. I would like to be able to bring in hazard in the near future with one transfer so having a little money itb would be the positive from having ings instead of zaha. Thanks for taking the time to reply.

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  14. Subzero (-4)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Hi guys. I have just became a member yesterday and I was wondering if anyone could give their advice (experience) on this wc team.

    I have spent time researching and looking at data etc and fixtures so I am bot being lazy expecting others to do work etc I just have a couple of areas to finalise before deadline. I have 0.4 itb

    Hennessy
    Alonso Robbo mendy Pva
    Mane salah mhkii Richarlison
    Zaha aguero

    Steck Stephens Bennett Kamara.

    Thinking of swapping zaha out for ings and upgrading Bennett to bellerin/stones? Or even making bennet > perrera (lei) and upgrade keeper to 5.0 option.

    This would definitely beef up bench but worried that zaha out may be a bad move. I've read into the members area and looked at some data and ings looks like he has had a a decent start but am I being blinded?

    I have played with 5 atb first 2 weeks and it's payed off well so looking at playing 541 or 442 potentially rotating ings with better premium def if fixture looks stronger?

    Apologies about long post just don't want people thinking it's just another rmt with no effort already put in.

    Thank you.

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    1. falafel
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Would definetly go for that Zaha to Ings swag and upgrade keeper and defence

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    2. Y26 Royal
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      You're most likely a lot more knowledgeable than me but i would say those 4 defenders you have is more than enough. I'd prob have AWB on the bench rather than Bennett though.
      Maybe Zaha to Ings if you fancy and upgrade Stephens?

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    3. 4zim
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I think it looks pretty good?

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  15. falafel
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    A, Bilva, Cook
    B, Fraser, Alonso

    Thanks for the helt guys!

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    1. BusbyB
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Fraser & Alonso

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  16. The Overthinker
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    New article posted

    https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/08/24/captain-sensible-salah-leads-aguero-in-polls-and-data-for-gameweek-3/

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  17. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Not sure I’m overly confident in Arsenal putting West Ham to the sword.

    Think Mkhi is plenty Arsenal for now until we see more?

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  18. pritish253
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Guys i am on wildcard:
    Confused to go with Ings and Mkhitaryan or Iwobi and Zaha.
    I know Ings looks good but as I am on wildcard looking for at least 7-8 GW also zaha comes in at 7M which might provide a flexibility to swap with the likes of Arnautovic,Rashford ,Tosun etc.

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  19. majishun
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Which one Kante or Jorghino out for Will Hughes this gameweek?

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    • Allewille
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Ederson
      Mendy - Alonso - Robertson
      Mhiki - Salah - Mane - Richarlison - Fraser
      Mitrovic - Aguero

      Hamer - Kamara - Peltier - Wan-Bissaka

      i want to get Pedro but due to transfer fees and price rise im 0.1 mil shy of that! And its to much of a hussle to get pedro in.

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      1. The Mandalorian
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        That team looks solid

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    • BusbyB
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Thoughts on this team guy

      DDG
      Robbo Mendy Alonso
      Mane Miki Richarlison Sessngon ( might take him out next GW)
      Aguero Firminho Zaha

      Bissaka Hudoi & Peltier on the bench

      Main concerns are Sessngo , Firrminho & DDG - also an expensive defence although its paid of so far

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    • sokika
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Does anybody think about taking Iwobi?

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    • Francisedom
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Salah for captain

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    • darrenpg
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Goalkeeper decisions De Gea or Begovic? which is the likely better return....?

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    • 4zim
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Have a basic question about expected goals. How do you use them properly? If a player is exceeding their expected goals, are they expected to slow down and regress to the mean (expected)? Or are they performing better and in good form? If they're behind, are they expected to score or in poor form?

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    • Mge1979
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Thoughts Pls:

      GK: Hart
      Def: Alexander-Arnold, Mendy, Tarkowski
      Mid: Salah, Mane, Silva, Ericsson, Sane
      Fwd: Zaha, Arnautavic

      Subs: Wan-Bis, Benett, Kamara, Speroni.

      2 subs this week - wanted to bring in Aguero and Richarlison for Sane and Ericcson who don't seem to be playing / scoring, but can't as that gives me too many forwards, could bring in Aguero or Kante maybe. Also not sure now on Burnleys defence or if Hart will be in goal on Sat. Any thoughts / suggestions welcome.

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    • AbsolutelyNoIdea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Hi all,

      Any idea on what to do with Josh King?

      Turn him into Wilson, Ings or Mitrovic ?

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    • RealRedDevil
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Anyone want to give their thoughts on Pogba/Gross vs Guendouzi/Hazard for the next 5-6 weeks?

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