Members

FPL Gameweek 3 – Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

23 August 2018 2868 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
Share:

Out latest article analyses the Opta-driven expected goals (xG) data that is available to subscribers in the Members’ area.

As well as taking a look at the expected goals scored and conceded for all 20 Premier League teams after two Gameweeks of the season, we assess the highest-performing forwards, midfielders and defenders in terms of their own personal expected goal involvement (xGI).

Become a Member and access our data

Memberships for the 2018/19 campaign are now available for the price of £15.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 130+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

CLICK HERE TO BECOME A FANTASY FOOTBALL SCOUT MEMBER

2,868 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. captainjilflex
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Thoughts please...
    Hamer
    VVD Mendy Chilwell
    Salah Rich Mkhi Fraser
    Zaha Kun Arnie
    DDG Lowton Stephens AWB

    0ft 2.4itb
    thanks

    Open Controls
    1. Jackie Moon
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Surely can’t leave DDG out for Hamer! I’ve got the same keepers. DDG plays every week if you fork out the money for him.

      How you feeling about Arnie? West Ham look shaky.

      Open Controls
      1. captainjilflex
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        im gonna get rid of DDG. he didnt even make a save against brighton so too expensive to carry. and huddersfield against cardiff i cant see many goals. if hamer doesnt play then ddg will sub in anyway. just didnt want to take a hit to do it this week.

        Open Controls
        1. Jackie Moon
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 2 days ago

          Fair call. I’m not convinced about DDG myself at the moment, but just don’t see another really good keeper option at the moment (from teams that I don’t already have a defender from) so going to hold for now until one emerges. Who are you thinking of? Fabianski might be the one once West Hams fixtures turn.

          Open Controls
          1. captainjilflex
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 2 days ago

            well ideally id like to do a 4.5 rotation but may have to wait until my wc to do that. not sure at the moment, havnt thought that far ahead...

            Open Controls
    2. Eze Really?
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      5
      6 8 6
      8 7 8 9
      7 9 6
      5 3 1 9
      total 97 good
      With money itb very good

      Open Controls
    3. V K
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Solid team. Ings better value than Zaha (with almost no BPS) and maybe Arnie

      Open Controls
      1. captainjilflex
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        i am considering ings or mitrovic. just reluctant to take a hit and had to get mkhi in. thanks

        Open Controls
  2. V K
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    An off template team this - but how is it?

    DDG - Hamer
    Luiz, Bailey, Mendy, TAA, AWB
    Stephens, HOdoi, Mane, Richarlson, Sterling (c)
    Morata, Auba, Mitrovic

    Open Controls
    1. V K
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Kopkloppers - looking forward to your numbers! 😛

      Open Controls
    2. Francescoli
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      looks like you want to self immolate

      Open Controls
      1. V K
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        Would you wildcard this?

        Open Controls
    3. SPorting
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      GK OK
      Defence is average but you could get away with it most weeks
      Midfield is a little too light
      Attack is risky because Morata's returns are never consitent

      only a 6.5/10 from me

      Open Controls
      1. V K
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        Cheers. You would wildcard this to settle keepers, mids etc?

        Open Controls
        1. SPorting
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 2 days ago

          I think so.

          I have different players but the problems are pretty much the same and a WC is looming this week.

          Open Controls
          1. V K
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 2 days ago

            Cheers mate!

            Open Controls
  3. Jafooli
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Wow, Ings still only 5.5m, what a bargain for a points magnet on form and with great fixtures.

    Can’t believe he’s so cheap!!!!

    #gethimwhileyoucan #midgetpower #bapsmaget #lowerownershipdifferential

    Open Controls
    1. Cok3y5murf
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Can Aguero cover him?

      Open Controls
    2. The Overthinker
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Ings essential

      Open Controls
    3. jia you
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Haha, getting him on WC but not expecting too much, should prove good value if the bugger stays fit!

      Open Controls
    4. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Looking at the state of some of the 6.5’s, INGs is at least 1.0 underpriced.

      Him & Fraser is some seriously cheap firepower for 11.0

      Open Controls
      1. Jafooli
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        Agreed

        Open Controls
    5. Eze Really?
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      I have been harping on about this since the start of the season. so true

      Open Controls
      1. Jafooli
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        Fraser & Ings to nail it.

        #shortarsedsuperstars

        Open Controls
        1. Eze Really?
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 2 days ago

          Yep but I own Fraser only because one of them would be my 8th forward and I will have a mil on the bench.

          Open Controls
    6. Jackie Moon
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Ings is tempting me, but currently playing 442 and still feel he has work to do to prove to me he’s worth more than the likes of PVA to switch to 343.

      Open Controls
  4. jack149331
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Captain Aguero or Salah? and Why?

    Open Controls
    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Salah - dat fixture

      Open Controls
    2. Jackie Moon
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Salah. Went Aguero last week due to fixture and doing same by going Salah this week.

      Open Controls
  5. Gol D Roger
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Patricio
    Peltier Vvd Mendy
    Salah (vc) Rich Hazard Moura
    Arnie Auba (c) King

    Fab---Zanka--Cairney--WB

    Here's the dilemma I went for auba for Aguero for my ft, however I'm concerned about Peltier and Zanka

    Zanka is due back this week and wasn't mentioned as out for this weekend in any conferences

    Peltier wasn't in the squad last time, however have a feeling (I know I know) he will be in this week

    Worst comes to worst tempted to sixth Zanka for another 4.5 for a hit

    Done well so far in terms of points, so the question begs

    Zanka (4.5) to who ?

    Open Controls
  6. jia you
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Probably going without Liverpool defence on WC in favour of:
    Ederson
    Mendy / Alonso / PVA (Cook, AWB)

    Thoughts?

    Open Controls
    1. Carlton_Goal
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Brave, could be smart with Palace's upcoming fixtures though, although TAA is even cheaper than PVA though

      Open Controls
      1. jia you
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        Was going to go TAA but a little concerned that Clyne will get some game time and their short-term fix are not great compared to others. Cheers

        Open Controls
        1. Carlton_Goal
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 2 days ago

          Yeah that's fair enough. I can see PVA scoring a lot of points in the next few weeks

          Open Controls
          1. jia you
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 2 days ago

            Cheers mate, I hope so! GL for the GW!

            Open Controls
      2. 1569Tippins
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        I think 3 LIV and 3 MCY are very important this season, they look head and shoulders above the rest.

        Liverpool are one of the best defences so I would definitely want Robertson (and to a lesser extent VVD) for £6m but if you’re looking for a more budget friendly option, you could go TAA.

        I definitely wouldn’t go without 3 LIV players though personally, although the defence you’ve picked there will score well to be fair.

        Open Controls
        1. jia you
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 2 days ago

          I hear you but on WC I prefer to gamble on Chelsea (Hazard + Alonso) and Auba coming good for a great run of fixtures on paper! Cheers mate

          Open Controls
          1. 1569Tippins
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 15 Years
            8 years, 2 days ago

            Nothing wrong with that... I think they’ll score well. I think that’s where we differ, I haven’t got Auba but I’ve got 4 at the back - can’t have them all I suppose haha

            Open Controls
            1. jia you
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 2 days ago

              that's exactly it mate, cant have em all, we all need to leave out a few big hitter that we'd like to have in an ideal squad!

              Open Controls
    2. Balotellitubbies
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Looks good, cook is very knee jerk though

      Open Controls
      1. jia you
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        Yeah, in for the price rise, he could come out before deadline. But BOU have great fixtures tbf! Cheers

        Open Controls
  7. Carlton_Goal
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Any standout 4.5/4.6 defenders (apart from Palace ones) atm? On a wildcard and could keep Shaw or have TAA as a 4th defender but would rather keep the money in the bank to upgrade others later if need be

    Open Controls
    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Stretching 0.5 to Pereira could be a good move, he looks like a low key Alonso

      Open Controls
      1. Carlton_Goal
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        Would Pereira be any better than TAA? Apart from more security of starts

        Open Controls
    2. Eze Really?
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      I have been looking too. Tell me if you find one. I have Cook but not really impressed.

      Open Controls
      1. Carlton_Goal
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        Holebas looks ok but his fixtures don't. Same story with Duffy. Considering Hoedt or Stephens from Southampton

        Open Controls
        1. Eze Really?
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 2 days ago

          True about Holebas. Hoedt/Stevens rotation?

          Open Controls
          1. Carlton_Goal
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 2 days ago

            Not sure, don't know enough about Southampton tbh, all I know is they've both played 90mins in both games so far

            Open Controls
          2. Carlton_Goal
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 2 days ago

            Hoedt played a lot more minutes last year than Stephens so he might be the one to go for

            Open Controls
    3. pritish253
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      I think Stankovic can be a decent selection consider the fixtures

      Open Controls
  8. 15men1cup
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Hi guys,

    quick question I am mulling over in my head.

    A) Alonso, Bennett,

    Or

    B) PVA, Pereira or a 5.0

    Let me know your thoughts.

    Thanks

    Open Controls
    1. V K
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      A

      Open Controls
      1. 15men1cup
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        Thanks for your feedback

        Open Controls
    2. 15men1cup
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      I have Mendy and Robbo it that helps

      Open Controls
      1. Carlton_Goal
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        In that case A, because you wouldn't need both to be playing

        Open Controls
        1. datamunkey
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 2 days ago

          This, unless of course you are going 4 at the back. Personally though, this 😉

          Open Controls
    3. child of God
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      B for me

      Open Controls
    4. Y26 Royal
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      I prefer B

      Open Controls
  9. Miguel Sanchez
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Should I start wildcard with:

    A) Mané (BRI) and have money ITB for Hazard (BOU, CAR, whu) next GW
    B) Hazard and hope he starts against Newcastle and Sadio is quiet against Brighton

    Open Controls
    1. Cok3y5murf
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      A

      Open Controls
  10. V K
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Would Bailey or Luiz lose their place this week?

    Open Controls
    1. Eze Really?
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Bailly maybe for Smalling but I don't see him playing left sided on a back 3 which is a possibility.

      Open Controls
  11. Shaikh91
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    My current front 8

    Sanchez, mkhi, richarlison, mane jota

    Aguero, arni, laca.

    Best replacement for Sanchez and laca - 18m?

    Open Controls
    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Has to be Salah +4.5 fodder, bank the change, Salah (c)?

      Open Controls
      1. Y26 Royal
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        Prob this. Or if you want Salahless....
        Auba and Pedro?

        Open Controls
    2. The Overthinker
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Dilva and morata?

      Open Controls
  12. MAVER!CK
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Okay let's assume Shaw's fit and nailed for few weeks. Who'd you go for? Shaw or Pereira

    Open Controls
    1. The Overthinker
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Pereira

      Open Controls
  13. Subzero (-4)
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Hi guys. I have just became a member yesterday and I was wondering if anyone could give their advice (experience) on this wc team.

    I have spent time researching and looking at data etc and fixtures so I am bot being lazy expecting others to do work etc I just have a couple of areas to finalise before deadline. I have 0.4 itb

    Hennessy
    Alonso Robbo mendy Pva
    Mane salah mhkii Richarlison
    Zaha aguero

    Steck Stephens Bennett Kamara.

    Thinking of swapping zaha out for ings and upgrading Bennett to bellerin/stones? Or even making bennet > perrera (lei) and upgrade keeper to 5.0 option.

    This would definitely beef up bench but worried that zaha out may be a bad move. I've read into the members area and looked at some data and ings looks like he has had a a decent start but am I being blinded?

    I have played with 5 atb first 2 weeks and it's payed off well so looking at playing 541 or 442 potentially rotating ings with better premium def if fixture looks stronger?

    Apologies about long post just don't want people thinking it's just another rmt with no effort already put in.

    Thank you.

    Open Controls
    1. gergin
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      I think AWB is enough for 5th def. Do not like combo Mane+Salah either, but it is just me here.. No Chelsea attacking cover can hurt You.

      Open Controls
      1. Subzero (-4)
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        Good shout on awb as 5th def. will make that change. Thank you

        Open Controls
    2. 1569Tippins
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Looks an excellent team mate. Personally I would max out on MCY but your defence is exactly what I would pick on WC (your GK and 4 starting DEFs). You have the 3 key LIV players, Aguero and cheap/budget bench that will come in as autosubs for a couple of points (this is what I do, rather than wasting funds on rotation players). I personally wouldn’t have gone for Zaha as I prefer Wilson or Ings right now but I can’t knock Zaha as a pick, I personally would just have used AWB as my 3rd Palace pick (over Bennett).

      Regarding your possible tactics, if I would you, I would personally leave it as it is and keep the extra money ITB. Some will agree, some won’t, but you’ve got 11 solid starters there and I would be happy to play them every week regardless of fixtures and then you’ll have the funds available to make a change if you see fit. I understand wanting to strengthen your bench but then you run the risk of benching headaches and leaving the wrong player on the bench... where as if you have a strong 11 with “2 pointers” on the bench who can pick up the odd extra points, you end up getting all of your strong 11 points - that’s how I always set my team up anyway.

      Good luck mate. Very good team.

      Open Controls
      1. Subzero (-4)
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        Thank you for your reply and input. This really helps and I think getting ings or Wilson allows me to potentially upgrade mane to say hazard with the money in the bank I would have by sticking with a strong 11. Thanks again

        Open Controls
    3. The Mandalorian
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Zaha has a better fitness record than Ings in the past few years and plays for a better team. At 5.5 Ings performance is a risk and that’s reflected by his value. So you weigh up your Ings back up plan and consider if the savings can used well elsewhere. I’ve opted for Mikhi over Zaha and gone with Ings.

      Open Controls
      1. The Mandalorian
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        *be

        Open Controls
      2. Subzero (-4)
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 2 days ago

        Good point regarding ings injury record like. I would like to be able to bring in hazard in the near future with one transfer so having a little money itb would be the positive from having ings instead of zaha. Thanks for taking the time to reply.

        Open Controls
  14. Subzero (-4)
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Hi guys. I have just became a member yesterday and I was wondering if anyone could give their advice (experience) on this wc team.

    I have spent time researching and looking at data etc and fixtures so I am bot being lazy expecting others to do work etc I just have a couple of areas to finalise before deadline. I have 0.4 itb

    Hennessy
    Alonso Robbo mendy Pva
    Mane salah mhkii Richarlison
    Zaha aguero

    Steck Stephens Bennett Kamara.

    Thinking of swapping zaha out for ings and upgrading Bennett to bellerin/stones? Or even making bennet > perrera (lei) and upgrade keeper to 5.0 option.

    This would definitely beef up bench but worried that zaha out may be a bad move. I've read into the members area and looked at some data and ings looks like he has had a a decent start but am I being blinded?

    I have played with 5 atb first 2 weeks and it's payed off well so looking at playing 541 or 442 potentially rotating ings with better premium def if fixture looks stronger?

    Apologies about long post just don't want people thinking it's just another rmt with no effort already put in.

    Thank you.

    Open Controls
    1. falafel
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Would definetly go for that Zaha to Ings swag and upgrade keeper and defence

      Open Controls
    2. Y26 Royal
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      You're most likely a lot more knowledgeable than me but i would say those 4 defenders you have is more than enough. I'd prob have AWB on the bench rather than Bennett though.
      Maybe Zaha to Ings if you fancy and upgrade Stephens?

      Open Controls
    3. 4zim
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      I think it looks pretty good?

      Open Controls
  15. falafel
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    A, Bilva, Cook
    B, Fraser, Alonso

    Thanks for the helt guys!

    Open Controls
    1. BusbyB
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      Fraser & Alonso

      Open Controls
  16. The Overthinker
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    New article posted

    https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/08/24/captain-sensible-salah-leads-aguero-in-polls-and-data-for-gameweek-3/

    Open Controls
  17. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Not sure I’m overly confident in Arsenal putting West Ham to the sword.

    Think Mkhi is plenty Arsenal for now until we see more?

    Open Controls
  18. pritish253
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Guys i am on wildcard:
    Confused to go with Ings and Mkhitaryan or Iwobi and Zaha.
    I know Ings looks good but as I am on wildcard looking for at least 7-8 GW also zaha comes in at 7M which might provide a flexibility to swap with the likes of Arnautovic,Rashford ,Tosun etc.

    Open Controls
  19. majishun
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Which one Kante or Jorghino out for Will Hughes this gameweek?

    Open Controls
  20. Allewille
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Ederson
    Mendy - Alonso - Robertson
    Mhiki - Salah - Mane - Richarlison - Fraser
    Mitrovic - Aguero

    Hamer - Kamara - Peltier - Wan-Bissaka

    i want to get Pedro but due to transfer fees and price rise im 0.1 mil shy of that! And its to much of a hussle to get pedro in.

    Open Controls
    1. The Mandalorian
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 2 days ago

      That team looks solid

      Open Controls
  21. BusbyB
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Thoughts on this team guy

    DDG
    Robbo Mendy Alonso
    Mane Miki Richarlison Sessngon ( might take him out next GW)
    Aguero Firminho Zaha

    Bissaka Hudoi & Peltier on the bench

    Main concerns are Sessngo , Firrminho & DDG - also an expensive defence although its paid of so far

    Open Controls
  22. sokika
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Does anybody think about taking Iwobi?

    Open Controls
  23. Francisedom
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Salah for captain

    Open Controls
  24. darrenpg
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Goalkeeper decisions De Gea or Begovic? which is the likely better return....?

    Open Controls
  25. 4zim
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Have a basic question about expected goals. How do you use them properly? If a player is exceeding their expected goals, are they expected to slow down and regress to the mean (expected)? Or are they performing better and in good form? If they're behind, are they expected to score or in poor form?

    Open Controls
  26. Mge1979
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Thoughts Pls:

    GK: Hart
    Def: Alexander-Arnold, Mendy, Tarkowski
    Mid: Salah, Mane, Silva, Ericsson, Sane
    Fwd: Zaha, Arnautavic

    Subs: Wan-Bis, Benett, Kamara, Speroni.

    2 subs this week - wanted to bring in Aguero and Richarlison for Sane and Ericcson who don't seem to be playing / scoring, but can't as that gives me too many forwards, could bring in Aguero or Kante maybe. Also not sure now on Burnleys defence or if Hart will be in goal on Sat. Any thoughts / suggestions welcome.

    Open Controls
  27. AbsolutelyNoIdea
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Hi all,

    Any idea on what to do with Josh King?

    Turn him into Wilson, Ings or Mitrovic ?

    Open Controls
  28. RealRedDevil
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 2 days ago

    Anyone want to give their thoughts on Pogba/Gross vs Guendouzi/Hazard for the next 5-6 weeks?

    Open Controls

You need to be logged in to post a comment.