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FPL Gameweek 3 – Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

23 August 2018 2868 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
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Out latest article analyses the Opta-driven expected goals (xG) data that is available to subscribers in the Members’ area.

As well as taking a look at the expected goals scored and conceded for all 20 Premier League teams after two Gameweeks of the season, we assess the highest-performing forwards, midfielders and defenders in terms of their own personal expected goal involvement (xGI).

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2,868 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Dirty Harry
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    What are people doing with Davies. I really feel I should have taken a -4 to bring in Alonso for set and forget when I could have afforded it, but now I'm priced out of that move I was looking at.

    Anyone with Davies, what is you plan? Wait and see?

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    1. Clintymints
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      If you have a 4.5 mid, you can spend 4 points to swap them to Hudson-Odoi to save the .1

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      1. Dirty Harry
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        I have a 5.0 mid, but 0.7 short now that Alonso went up and Davies dropped. Quite annoying.

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        1. Clintymints
          • 17 Years
          8 years, 27 days ago

          I feel your pain. Had to spend -8 (instead of -4) after missing a .1 riser

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    2. BadgersBoys
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      I'm bringing Marcus in for a set and f'ing forget.

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    3. Rasping Drive
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Davies has great underlying stats. Keep him.

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    4. BLANKET DEFENCE
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      hoping to change him to wan bissaka to get the funds to do Mahrez to hazard.

      already have Robertson and Mendy do I don't mind having to choose one out of the other three defenders each week (Tomkins, Cook, AWB)

      Also think hazard will be the best chelsea option when hes back

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  2. andrinho
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    A) Schlupp & Mkhi
    or
    B) Pereira & Richarlison

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    1. Bad Kompany
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      A if schlupp is likely to keep his spot

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    2. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      B for me

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    3. ignis88
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      B easily

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    4. 50 Shades Oshea
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      B

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  3. Gearoid
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    2FT, 0ITB. What should my priority be?
    A. Pickford to Ederson
    B. Mee to Alonso
    C. Bilva to Mane
    D. Firmino to Auba
    I would dowgrade Arnie to generate funds.
    E. Just downgrade Arnie and roll FT and cash to next GW
    F. Something else

    Pickford Stek
    Mee Mendy Robertson AWB Peltier
    Salah Bilva Mkhi Richarlison Stephens
    Arnie Aguero Firmino

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    1. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      If you can do B in one move then so that

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  4. Hardly Athletic
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Playing wildcard. A or B?

    a. 3-4-3

    Ederson
    Mendy - Alonso - Alexander-Arnold
    Salah - MANE - Mkhitaryan - Richarlison
    Aguero - WILSON - MITROVIC

    Subs: Hamer - Guendouzi - Tomkins - Wan-Bissaka

    b. 4-4-2

    Ederson
    Mendy - Alonso - Alexander-Arnold - Tomkins
    Salah - Mkhitaryan - PEDRO - Richarlison
    Aguero - AUBAMEYANG

    Subs: Hamer - Wan-Bissaka - Guendouzi - KAMARA

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    1. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      B out of those.

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    2. AYLD28
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      I think B but I don’t like TAA personally, card magnet

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    3. A La Pelle
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      B

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    4. Big Ping
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      A

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    5. Totti
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      A for me

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  5. AYLD28
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Current front 8, fill in the blanks:

    Miki, Salah, XX, Richarlison, Fraser
    Aguero, Ings, XX

    1. Hazard, Kamara (3-5-2)
    2. Some 4.5, Aubam (3-4-3)

    I have Alonso just as an FYI if anyone believes in cover (I don’t for the record)

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    1. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      B

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    2. Totti
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      1

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  6. Snikii
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Hey guys and gals, what do you think?
    Auba,Pedro,TAA or Zaha,Mane,Robo?

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    1. Bendy Busdriver
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      a for me

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    2. BadgersBoys
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Auba group, slightly. Purely for fixtures.

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      1. Snikii
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Its so close...

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    3. Totti
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      B with wilson or arna instead of zaha

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      1. Snikii
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Dont trust Wilson and Arna has terrible fixtures, why dont you like Zaha?

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        1. Totti
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 27 days ago

          let's change the question 🙂
          why you like him?

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          1. Snikii
            • 12 Years
            8 years, 27 days ago

            good fixtures, in a good team, played well. Played even better last season. For a 7 mil he seams like good value.

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  7. points ineed
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    mane captain??

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    1. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      He is one of the candidates

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  8. Bendy Busdriver
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    salah and ings
    or
    dilva and aubs?

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    1. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Salah just because of ownership, but it does show how expensive he actaully is

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    2. Totti
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      sa la la la la and ings

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  9. Sterling is £11Mill..…
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Anyone got kelechi

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    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Considered it but it's that Liverpool game sandwiching two away games that is off putting.

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      1. Fantastisk
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        A

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  10. Bad Kompany
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    How do you think arsenal will/should line up in their next few games vs easier opposition?

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    1. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Same way imo

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    2. BadgersBoys
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      5-4-1

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      1. Bad Kompany
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Interesting. Haven’t heard this from anywhere before

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        1. BadgersBoys
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 27 days ago

          Yea, Wenger says he prefers it.

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          1. Bad Kompany
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 27 days ago

            Wenger?

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            1. BadgersBoys
              • 13 Years
              8 years, 27 days ago

              Yep, Wenger. Back as chief decision maker. Unpaid role seemly but 3x tea breaks per day.

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  11. DanLynch
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    arnautovic or ings?

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    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Ings until West Ham have settled

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  12. Twisted Saltergater
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Dropped Hazard. As much as I want him, no need to take the risk until I see how he plays vs Newcastle (being without their first and second choice RB, is so tempting though).

    1. Hazard + Zaha + Ings (1st sub)
    2. Salah + Ings + Kamara (1st sub)

    So have gone for 2 and will re-evaluate next week 🙂

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    1. Bad Kompany
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      why would you start with him and then transfer him out when he will play more against easier teams

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      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 17 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Brought him in (and out) on a WC... sorry, didn't state that.

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        1. Bad Kompany
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 27 days ago

          That makes more sense. I have salah and hazard. I think Salah will tear it up this week but than am unsure if he’s worth his price tag after that

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    2. El Lobito 10
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Hazard will tear it up mate

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      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 17 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        No doubt, but can do Salah > Hazard next week if he starts at Newcastle and looks sharp.

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        1. El Lobito 10
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 27 days ago

          Lol my thoughts too man!!

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    3. Rasping Drive
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      You pu*sy

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      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 17 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        😀

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  13. TOBY1
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Mane or Aguero captain?

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    1. El Lobito 10
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      The guy who scored the hat trick last week and plays a promoted team that has shipped a bunch of goals

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      1. La Roja
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        4 goals conceded in 2 games. Not quite bunch is it

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        1. El Lobito 10
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 27 days ago

          Fair enough. It wasn't against free scoring teams though.

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    2. toerag
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      kun

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  14. El Lobito 10
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Thoughts? WC

    Foster (Hennessey)
    TAA Mendy Alonso (Pereira, AWB)
    Pedro Salah Mane Richa Mkhi
    Aguero Ings (Kamara)

    Want a strongish bench. Would love Hazard but would have to downgrade Pereira and swap out Mane. So difficult this year!

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    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      EXACTLY the same squad except Ederson + Hamer over your two.

      Salah > Hazard might be an option next week 🙂

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      1. El Lobito 10
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Yer ah know mate, we discussed it yesterday. 😀 Great minds let's hope!

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        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 17 Years
          8 years, 27 days ago

          yeah, I remembered immediately after clicking send lol

          Made a few changes today so didn't expect another team to be quite so similar. Am loving Pereira as an alternative defender should there be rotation elsewhere.

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          1. El Lobito 10
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 27 days ago

            Yeah him and AWB to be honest

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    2. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Really good team this. The only player I don't like is Mkhi but that's my personal preference who knows, gl.

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      1. El Lobito 10
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Thanks mate, appreciated

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  15. andrinho
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Transfer in:
    a) Richarlison
    or
    b) Mkhitaryan

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    1. El Lobito 10
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      B

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    2. Totti
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Richarlison for sure

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      1. El Lobito 10
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Nothing sure about Richarlison tbh. Apart from that he went about 50 games without hitting a barn door last year

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        1. Totti
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 27 days ago

          50 games !!!
          anyway he's the best midfielder now in fantasy plus mkhitaryan did nothing last year with arsenal and this year goal and assist comparing to 3 goals fe richarlison

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          1. El Lobito 10
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 27 days ago

            Lol I exaggerated just a wee bit 😀 yeah mate, I have him too. I got both. Doubt over both I suppose as can be inconsistent.

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            1. Totti
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 27 days ago

              me too have both 🙂
              but he was asking who to pick out of those so i think richarlison for the form

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  16. Dr. Rog
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    A) Auba & Kante & Zaha
    B) Hazard & Zaha & Ings
    C) Laca & Pedro & Zaha
    D) Pedro & Auba & Ings

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    1. Bad Kompany
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      D

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    2. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      D

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    3. Totti
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      I'm leaning towards hazard

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  17. La Roja
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Why so many wildcards after just 2 gw’s?

    What the heck am I missing?

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    1. El Lobito 10
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Stealing a march init

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    2. BadgersBoys
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Alcohol.

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    3. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      It's panic. Pure and simple.

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      1. La Roja
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        How can you panic after just 2 weeks season starts? I don’t get it

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    4. Bad Kompany
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Mark and ville ronka wc so now everyone is wc

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      1. La Roja
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Actually this could be one of the main reason why, cheers.

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        1. Bad Kompany
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 27 days ago

          I hope mark doesn’t show his team early. Otherwise everyone will just copy it

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    5. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      I went:

      Tosun over Richarlison
      Mahrez over Mane
      Firmino over Aguero

      Have used the WC to bring in the above, plus Alonso, Pedro, Mkhitaryan, Pereira, Ings and Ederson.

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  18. cheeky_ash
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Patience has just got the better of me.....I must be mad but have decided to play an early WC. This is my current WC team....?

    (Fabianski) - Foster
    Alonso - (Stankovic) - Robertson - Mendy - (Wan-Bissaka)
    Richarlison - Salah - Pedro - Mané - Mkhitaryan
    (Kamara) - Agüero - Ings

    0.2 ITB

    I'm considering
    A. Aguero -> Aub
    B. Robertson + Fabianski -> TAA + Ederson
    C. Leave as is
    D. Something else....if so....any suggestions?

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    1. Totti
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      C

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    2. BenDavies
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      A- Don't do that
      B- That wouldn't be terrible. Not a bad move. Slightly sideways maybe
      C- It's not a bad team, not sure about Pedro long term though with Hazard coming back.

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    3. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      change the keepers deffinitely. Not sure about Ederson, but look at Hennessey maybe

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      1. cheeky_ash
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        CPL on my radar...so I'll look at CPL fixtures will a rotation with him

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    4. Khark
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Don’t consider A lol

      Aguero the golden boot man

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      1. cheeky_ash
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Possible rotation incoming

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        1. Khark
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 27 days ago

          Aguero capable of scoring twice in a 10min cameo though.

          Rotation doesn’t worry me with Aguero

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  19. Totti
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    A)Best 4.5 million instead of boly?

    B) Best 4 nailed defender but not bissaka

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    1. Netley Lucas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Tomkins

      Nobody

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      1. Totti
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        already owning bissaka
        don't want to double-up palace defence
        any other suggestion?

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    2. OneDennisBergkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      B) Bennet

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      1. Totti
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        is he nailed?

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  20. Monya Meow Meow
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Is there a reason people are starting Ings over both Fraser & Rich this week?

    I have all 3 and Ings is first on my bench, just wanted to know the thought process behind it.

    Cheers.

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    1. BenDavies
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Ideally you start Ings AND Richarlison. That's what I'm doing.I wouldn't bench Rich for Ings ever. I'm benching Fraser for Ings.

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      1. Monya Meow Meow
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Fraser has a history of good returns against Everton though

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    2. BadgersBoys
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      BSE.

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      1. Monya Meow Meow
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        What's BSE?

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        1. BadgersBoys
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 27 days ago

          Mad Cow Disease.

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          1. Monya Meow Meow
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 27 days ago

            Lolz ok, I'm assuming you would bench Ings as well then?

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  21. OneDennisBergkamp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Is King to Wilson a silly sideways move?

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    1. Netley Lucas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Maybe

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    2. BenDavies
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Somewhat yes. He's already dropped too. King could easily score next week and make you regret it. If King still seems like a passenger then kick him next week.

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    3. RussWells89
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      I’ve done this to free up funds to get Alonso in

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    4. toerag
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      wondering whether to stick with king or go -4 for ings...

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    5. Red Wasabi
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Check out Wilson’s stats compared to King’s.

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  22. Newms
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Hamer
    Mendy, Robertson, Kabasele
    Salah, mkhi, Maddison, Richardson
    Aguero, Firmino, Mitrovic
    Subs Patricio, Billing, Peltier, Wan B

    2FTs already changed Eriksen for Mkhi. £2.5m itb
    A) Alonso in for Kabasele
    B) Auba in for Firmino
    C) Hold and see how Hazard and Auba do

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    1. cheeky_ash
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      A

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  23. stat
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Not sure how he hasn't been caught yet, but there's a guy called "Rishab Sharma" who has literally made over 4000 teams on FPL, occasionally with the same team name.

    Here's a list of his teams and their IDs: https://pastebin.com/raw/E3uww8CN

    Feel free to report him to FPL since it's unfair on the rest of us who play by the rules and only have 1 team: https://fantasy.premierleague.com/help/

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    1. Bad Kompany
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      A few days ago someone posted a league where the same guy had like 10 teams and all of them were going for the highest he score

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      1. stat
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Yeah, the guy that was top on Saturday

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    2. BadgersBoys
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Serious amount of work going into maintaining 4k teams. Do we know which is the highest ranking? 🙂

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      1. stat
        8 years, 27 days ago

        I think it might be this one:
        https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/team/1001928/event/2

        He's also in a couple of leagues with other people who have tons of accounts:
        https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/leagues/standings/193030/classic
        https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/leagues/standings/222783/classic
        https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/leagues/standings/199851/classic

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    3. lugs
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Jesus, and here was me worried that my Zombie team would get caught 😆

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      1. BadgersBoys
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Reported.

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    4. Khark
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      4000 teams.

      That man, get a life you absolute loser.

      Jeez

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      1. BadgersBoys
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Living the dream.

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    5. Goonermeister
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Wow what a loser

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    6. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Rishab Ruth Sharma

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    7. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      He's must havr spent about 3 days with no sleep picking teams and for what?

      Don't report him, study him

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      1. stat
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Probably made a bot to manage the whole situation

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  24. ZTF
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Lukaku or Auba? I've noticed the Auba hype but don't really get why he's a better option than Lukaku

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    1. Tsparkes10
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Fixtures and Lukaku is a donkey... also aubam takes pens

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    2. Khark
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Mourinho.

      Lukaku probably a left back this season

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  25. Bad Kompany
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Score predictions?

    Huddersfield vs Cardiff
    Man U vs Spurs

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    1. ZTF
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      1-0
      2-1

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    2. La Roja
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      1-1
      1-2

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    3. Chilli Heatwave
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      2-0
      1-1

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    4. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      1-0
      1-0

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    5. Bad Kompany
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Cheers all!

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    6. toerag
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      2-0
      2-2

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    7. lugs
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      0-0
      1-0

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    8. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      1 1
      1 4

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  26. Joyce1998
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    g2g on this WC team??

    ederson, hamer
    alonso, mendy, taa, awb, bennet
    salah, amne, mki, rich, 4.5
    kun, zaha, wilson

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    1. Chilli Heatwave
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      G2g, like it. Only concern is Chelsea cover

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      1. Joyce1998
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        alonso will do the job 😉

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  27. Tsparkes10
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Plan to make 2 transfers this week and 2 week after with a 4 point hit... Out: Diop, Firminho, Ozil, Lucas
    In: A) Pedro, Aubam, Brooks, Alonso
    B) Iwobi, Mitro, Hazard, Alonso

    Any advice is appreciated

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    1. Joyce1998
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      iwobi not nailed and pedro looking sharp atm but might be rotated with hazard, its a trciky one hahah

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  28. Joyce1998
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    *mane

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  29. Gorbitz
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    For the next 10 gws:
    A) D Silva
    B) Mkhi

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    1. Tsparkes10
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Loool cant predict 10 gameweeks but personally David silva for me. As city have too much class and Mkhi may get rotated if slacking.

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  30. Chilli Heatwave
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Auba dilva
    Or
    Salah mitrovic

    On wc.

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    1. Tsparkes10
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Auba Dilva for me

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    2. Khark
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Just shows the reality of not owning Salah lol.

      A all day long for me but people will say B just because of Salah.

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    3. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Not auBa Dilva - Salah Mitrovich

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    4. El Lobito 10
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      A. I take risks though

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